Lebanese PM Saad Hariri resigns citing Iranian meddling

It is far too soon to know that. It certainly went against everything which people thought in Lebanon and Hezbollah is not stupid. On the other hand he has massive financial connections to Saudi Arabia and without question the Saud's have lost with the destruction of the 'rebels' in Syria something which Hezollah were involved in and which puts them in an increased powerful position at the moment. Indeed I glanced over one article which suggested it was Trump upset about losing his 'rebels' in Syria. (though personally I don't think Trump knows enough about anything to have any ideas)

The Sauds have something to gain from weakening Lebanon as does Israel and due to their position on Iran as does Trump's America.

http://www.middleeasteye.net/column...setting-saudi-iranian-relationship-1761124876

It strikes me as more likely that it comes from the Sauds - and they will have areas in which the have a hold over him, not least being economic. Him staying in KSA makes no difference either way. If he was genuinely scared he would stay and if he was being held against his will he would stay. He has anyway apparently left for Abu Dhabi

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/h...s-between-lebanon-and-saudi-arabia-1789035282

Of course people are writing about his loyalty to Saudi Arabia so it may be something he has freely done. That does not mean that the reasons he gave are the truth and of course if he was intending on harming Lebanon, then they would be logical to try to stop that - though arrest rather than assassination would be the better way.

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/h...s-between-lebanon-and-saudi-arabia-1789035282

My money is on it being yet another bit of Saudi intrigue possibly backed by the US and Israel to destabilise Lebanon - something which will likely be even more strongly pursued due to their contribution in stopping ISIS and others from taking over Syria and leaving it at this point in time still in Assad/Russia's hands.

 

More of terror invasions than rockets :
"The Ma'alot massacre[1] was a Palestinian terrorist attack that occurred in May 1974 and involved a two-day hostage-taking of 115 Israeli people which ended in the murders of over 25 hostages. It began when three armed members of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)[2] entered Israel from Lebanon. Soon afterwards they attacked a van, killing two Israeli Arab women while injuring a third and entered an apartment building in the town of Ma'alot, where they killed a couple and their four-year-old son.[3] From there, they headed for the Netiv Meir Elementary School, where they took more than 115 people (including 105 children) hostage on 15 May 1974, in Ma'alot"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ma'alot_massacre

 

There are many stories like that. I remember reading a George Will column about how the Palestinians are not people "just like us". Palestinian terrorists invaded an Israeli home, killed the parents and all of the young children, and then slit the throat of the family's dog and drank its blood. True story. Sick, uncivilized, subhuman animals.

These are the same people that slaughtered the entire Israeli Olympic team.

 

The Saudis have always had huge investments in Lebanon and poured even more into Lebanon before Rafic was killed by a Hezbollah Truck bomb.

What would the Saudis gain from weakening Lebanon?

 

;), Oh I'm not overly enthusiastic over this scarlet, I'm just stating what the long game may look like ...I see what you're saying about Russia/Iran trying to keep their foothold in Syria...russia more so...since if it loses it, then it's an open road to moscow, and the knives could be out for Putin.
I just can't see any way forward with Assad there in it present state. Sure deals get signed, but some of these take years to implement, and there's many "unforeseens" yet to be determined with regards to Syria. Time will tell.)

 

Come on Margot. I have already said why. I am assuming this new Leader has not changed Saudi Arabia's objectives towards Iran and of course Syria, something which Hezbollah helped the Russian's to mess up.

Now as to the position of Iran. Lebanon's President Michel Aoun has made it very clear he stands side by side with Hezbollah. That itself puts Lebanon in close alliance with Iran. Is not the Saud's reason for their new alliance with Israel due to them both hating Iran. Hence would it be logical for Lebanon not to be playing to the Saud's tune? Of course. Does Harir have a close relationship with Saudi Arabia, particularly on economic things, yes.That seems like the most likely reason he could have turned traitor. There is no way anyone would have been thinking of assassinating him unless he was seen as a threat. So either he is a traitor to Lebanon or pressure is being put on him which he feels unable to resist.

Who gets hurt by this. Everyone seems to be thinking Lebanon.

 

Until the US and Israel, along with multiple arab armies and Turkey obliterates iran, whose cities are going to make Homs and Stalingrad look like luxurious palaces after they get through with them. I really feel for the average iranian, they have no idea how hard they are going to be crushed.

How's that? assad has no financial backers, and has no way of possibly financing the rebuilding of syria, most of whom don't even recognize him as the legitimate leader. Where is he going to get the trillions of $ needed to rebuild syria? The US and most EU countries won't give him a dime.

Thats pennies on the dollar, look at how much it will cost to rebuild syria. The US/EU could write russia a check for $10 BBN today to leave syria and they wouldn't even notice.

 

A hezbollah truck bomb killed his father and 21 other people and now they are threatening his life.

I don't think there is any question that Iran and Syria have pretty much taken over in Lebanon...

For months Iran has been resettling Shia from Lebanon, Iraq and Iran in Syria,

Michel Aoun is a Christian and sides with Hezbollah. Its not good for Lebanon, but there you have it.

Iran can't leave Saudi Arabia alone.. They have been dogging them since I was a girl.. The missiles fired into Arabia from Yemen are Iranian.

 

Well I don't know about that. However even if that did happen He accepted the position of Prime Minister. There is only his word that he is in danger of assassination. Most places appear to think it is a Saudi move


https://www.ft.com/content/dce8e652-c3b3-11e7-b2bb-322b2cb39656

from whom? Give some examples of how they have done this.

I did hear that that was happening in Allepo after people were moved out but have not been keeping up. Lebanon however wants Syrian refugees returned to Syria.

Not just a Christian a Maronite Christian and previous top General. Israeli's 2006 attack on Lebanon is why he both as a Maronite and as his position in the army respects Hezbollah. Look Margot that whole area is ***ked at the moment. Lebanon is suffering. The Shia's supported Israel until their occupation giving birth to Hezbollah. The Maronites supported Israel in the main I think till Israel practised her Dahiya Doctrine on them. They are just trying to survive. Obviously being a Saudi fan you will want them to do what the Saudi's want.

I don't think so though certainly the Saud's see Iran as a threat to who is the most dominant on Islam. Has this not changed with the new moderate Saudi Arabia I have been hearing about? He seems like an autocrat but one woman I read was only asked politely to put on a headscarf during prayers this morning rather than being arrested or whipped.


The FT article believes KSA has failed to be successful. They can't win in Yemen and are just getting more and more voices shouting 'war crimes' at them, their attempt to destroy Qatar has not really worked and their finances are in very poor state. Meanwhile Syria's battles have been won by Russia with Shia support, the Shia are also making strides in Iraq sending ISIS packing. They really have been successful where the Saud's have not. They also point out the vulnerability of Hariri thrown into his father's boots while suffering financially with his Saudi Construction Conglomerate. They suspect the Crown prince may hope to even things up by joining with Israel and Trump against Iran and Lebanon hoping this will be the one that works.. The FT does not see the Saud's themselves attacking Lebanon but suggest they may have pinned a target on their back. The FT suggest Lebanon is stuck in the crossfire as the Saud's steps up the fire on Iran. God knows how all this will end.

I also read about the rocket landing in Ridya with the suggestion that this was a message to KSA that if it wants to get started, it can also receive.

I really don't know enough about the man to know if he meant what he said but most of what I have read suggests because of his vulnerability he is being used by KSA.

 

Saudi Prince Abdul Aziz bin Fahd, a business partner of former Lebanese PM Hariri, dies during arrest

The Saudi purges continue to become increasingly brutal as it appears that the Hariri resignation had everything to do with internal Saudi matters.

Former FBI special agent Ali H. Soufan has confirmed that Prince Abdul Aziz bin Fahd has been killed during an attempt by the authorities to arrest him as part of Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman’s great purge of the Saudi elites. He died when his security contingent got into a firefight with regime gunmen attempting to make an arrest.

Abdul Aziz is confirmed dead. He was 44 years old. Earlier, Mansour son of the former crown prince Muqrin was also declared dead. https://t.co/IsUyU896o4

— Ali H. Soufan (@Ali_H_Soufan) November 5, 2017

Prince Abdul Aziz was deeply involved in Saudi Oger Ltd, a company which until it ceased operations in the summer of this year, was owned by the Hariri family. Former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri was punitively in charge of the company until it ceased operations.

Prince Abdul Aziz’s strange and sudden death which is said to have occurred during an attempted arrest, sheds light on the theory that the clearly forced resignation of former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri had more to do with internal Saudi affairs than the Saudi attempt to bring instability to Lebanon.

As I wrote yesterday,

“This therefore, forces one to consider why the Saudi regime would involve itself in the Hariri affair on the same day as the ‘great purge’?

The answer lies in exploring whether the Hariri ‘purge’ was more for domestic consumption than for international consumption. As a powerful Saudi citizen, one could think of Hariri’s apparently forced resignation as the first Saudi purge of the day, on a day that saw many powerful Saudi citizens dethroned from powerful places in society.

The message to all powerful Saudis, including to Hariri, is that no one is too big to fall at the hands of MBS, even a Saudi citizen who is the Prime Minister in a foreign democracy. The fact that both Hariri and MBS are young men in a leadership role, would indicate that for the famously politically trigger happy MBS, it was also an ego boost”.

Furthermore, during his speech yesterday afternoon, Hezbollah leader Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah remarked that perhaps Hariri was involved with the business dealings or personal relations of some of the Saudi officials who had been victims of great purge

The sudden death of Prince Abdul Aziz bin Fahd now appears to confirm this line of thinking. This also sheds light on yesterday’s helicopter crash which killed another Saudi prince, Mansour bin Muqrin. When taken in totality, the ‘crash’ does not appear to be an accident.

With reports of no-fly lists being drawn up by the Saudi regime to keep various princes and other official inside the country, the purge looks to be only growing in terms of its scope and its brutality.

http://theduran.com/saudi-prince-abdul-aziz-dies-arrest/

 

I have spent a lot of time in Lebanon so I am a big fan of Lebanon and I hate seeing them get beat up again. I don't know much about the son of Rafic Hariri.. other than he has tried to follow in his father's footsteps and his father was good for Lebanon which is why Assad had him murdered.

The Saudis LOVED the father and I am sure they don't want to see the son murdered.

The Saudis love Lebanon, but have long considered Hezbollah and obstacle to peace in the region.

Yemen isn't about winning. Its about keeping terrorists out of Arabia. KSA has propped Yemen up for 40 years, but in the past two decades AQ, Boko Haram, Al Shabaaz and every other crackpot faction has destroyed Yemen's small oil business, closed over 500 factories... the people are suffering.. Iran is funding the al Houthis.. Some Somali pirates have set up in Yemen.. as well as some ISIS types.

These terrorists in Yemen have been cranking out suicide bombers by the dozens and 29 of them have succeeded.

Qatar entertains all sorts of terrorist in Qatar and they still want a gas pipeline from South Pars across Syria.

The Saudis aren't the bad guys in this.. and neither is Israel.

The don't whip women for not putting on a headscarf.. Never had..

What is FT.. Is that another Russian outlet?

 

Why on earth would you believe Adam Garrie at the Duran? He doesn't know his butt from a hot rock and he's a piss poor analyst.

 

yet.... he will get his money, there's enough metals, minerals and fossil fuels in Syria for him to use as collateral.

It does look as if Israel and Saudi Arabia is gearing up for a war with Iran, although the battleground is Syria not Iran

Israel Is Going to War in Syria to Fight Iran

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/09/28/israel-is-going-to-war-in-syria-to-fight-iran/

 

I've read a number of articles and agree with this assessment that Hariri always faced an assassination threat from Hezbollah, the difference or reason for the resignation is the Saudis and their intentions towards Iran/Hezbollah. Doesn't make the assassination threat any less real.

 

Syria has very little oil.. not even enough to meet their domestic needs and it is very sour and heavy.. only fit for asphalt.

 

In 2010

 

Good grief, the IMF never gets anything right. Syria was down to pumping 35,000 bpd BEFORE the civil war.

 

35 000 barrels per day huh lol in your dreams... or theirs

 

Syria's oil production has been declining for over 20 years.. I don't think those numbers are accurate.

I remember, before the civil war they were pumping around 65,000 bpd.. The Omar field has been completely destroyed.. The ppb is too low for Syria to prosper and invest in rebuilding Syria.

Before the civil war, 5 years of drought had turned Syria into a dust bowl and destroyed the agriculture sector.

 

you've got to be kidding me... you expect me to believe you "anonymous person on the internet" instead. Where are you pulling these figures from.... wait... don't tell me I don't want to know.

Yes they had a drought but that would affect their raw cotton, fruit and cereal grain exports... we're talking oil

 

This is one of the most comprehensive pieces on Syria and what happened.

Understanding Syria: From Pre-Civil War to Post-Assad - The Atlantic
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/...syria...post-assad/281989/
Dec 10, 2013 - How drought, foreign meddling, and long-festering religious tensions created the tragically splintered Syria we know today. ... William R. Polk first wrote for The Atlantic during the Eisenhower administration, with a report in 1958 about tensions in Iraq. ... Earlier this year, Polk wrote ...

 

well there you go... thank you that wasn't hard... copy past link.... this one points out what mine missed

thousand barrels per day

but it's actually a lot more than

it's 600 000 barrels per day.

ok so what's the point, there's plenty oil there for collateral to rebuild

 

A recent World Bank report lays out the toll the war has taken on all sectors of the Syrian economy. Petroleum, which made up about 27 per cent of the pre-war economy, has shrunk to negligible levels, while the total GDP has fallen 63 per cent.

The pariah Assad regime cannot expect much in terms of international aid – its main allies, Russia and Iran, have already spent lavishly on supporting his war effort, and have their own bills to pay. EU sanctions on Syrian oil exports remain, while efforts to block illicit trucking of crude by ISIL through Turkey and Iraq have escalated.

Terrorist-linked and sanctioned groups will remain deeply embedded in what remains of petroleum operations and trade. Control of fuel and electricity, like food, is a key tool of regime control.

Yet repairing the oil and gas sector will be critical to restoring electricity, providing local fuel, funding reconstruction and providing government revenues – whether to Damascus or local autonomous administrations. As the guns fall silent in some areas, even while slaughter continues in others, the tangled web of Syrian oil will continue to ensnare.

https://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/syrian-oil-a-continuing-conundrum-1.613474