The Alternative Ukraine Thread

Discussion in 'Russia & Eastern Europe' started by Kris P. Bacon, Jun 19, 2022.

  1. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    We shall see.
     
  2. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Clear sighted people knew from the beginning (2001) that the real question would be whether the US could sustain a generational effort. We now know the answer is no.
     
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  3. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    No, we already saw. Times up and your prediction is wrong.
     
  4. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    As you wish.
     
  5. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    It's simply a fact.
     
  6. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Follow me for more predictions by American generals!

    [​IMG]
     
  7. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Melb_muser and PARTIZAN1 like this.
  8. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Ukraine Conflict Updates
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 3

    Click here to read the full report.
    Key Takeaways

    • Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a series of instructions for Russian agencies and high-level officials likely aimed at appeasing widespread criticisms of the provisioning and payment of benefits to Russian military personnel and propagandizing the war.
    • Putin confirmed that Russia is using a variety of social schemes to justify the transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia.
    • Systemic failures in Russia’s force generation efforts continue to plague Russian personnel capabilities to the detriment of Russian operational capacity in Ukraine.
    • Degraded Russian military personnel capabilities will likely further exacerbate Russian milblogger criticism of Russian force generation efforts and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
    • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin attempted to justify the Wagner Group’s lack of progress in Bakhmut, partially supporting ISW’s assessment that Russian forces in Bakhmut are culminating.
    • Russian forces continued limited counterattacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line as Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian military logistics in Luhansk Oblast.
    • Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and Avdiivka and may be reinforcing their grouping in western Donetsk Oblast.
    • Ukrainian forces have reportedly established positions on the Velikiy Potemkinsky Island in the Dnipro River delta as of January 2.
    • Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree that promises additional benefits to Russian forces personnel and Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) who defend the Russian-Ukrainian border. . . .
    Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian military logistics in Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhii Cherevaty reported on January 3 that Ukrainian forces destroyed Russian ammunition field warehouses and a fuel and lubricants storage area in the Svatove direction.[25] . . .

    Ukrainian forces claimed they established positions on the Velykyi Potomkin Island in the Dnipro River delta southwest of Kherson City as of January 2. Geolocated footage shows that Ukrainian forces reached the northeastern part of the island as of January 2, and some social media users claimed that Ukrainian forces captured parts or all of the island.[37] Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated on January 3 that ”there is information” that Ukrainian forces have captured the island but there is currently no official confirmation.[38] Geolocated footage posted on January 2 shows that Russian forces still operate in other areas of the delta.[39] A Russian milblogger claimed that the island remains a contested zone and that reports of Ukrainian forces capturing the island are a Ukrainian information operation.[40]

    Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian force concentrations in the rear areas of southern Ukraine. Geolocated footage posted on January 2 shows the destroyed “Gran Prix” stud farm complex in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast following a Ukrainian strike.[41] A Russian soldier had previously posted a picture of himself standing in front of the complex’s logo, a violation of operational security principles that likely aided Ukrainian troops in targeting the strike.[42] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian force concentration in Chukalivka, Kherson Oblast (35km southwest of Kherson City on the T2216 highway) on December 31, killing and wounding 500 Russian military personnel.[43] Russian milbloggers denied reports of the strike.[44] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian force concentration in Fedorivka (likely referring to a settlement along either the E58 or R47 highways in eastern Kherson Oblast) on January 1 and are still determining Russian casualties.[45] A Ukrainian source reported that Ukrainian forces struck Russian forces in Chaplynka, Kherson Oblast (69km south of the Dnipro River on the T2202 Nova Kakhovka-Armiansk highway).[46] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed on January 3 that Ukrainian forces shelled a hospital in Tokmak, and geolocated footage shows damage to a medical facility where Russian forces reportedly had positions.[47] Russian sources reported that Russian air defenses shot down likely Ukrainian drones over Sevastopol and Dzhankoi, Crimea, on January 2 and 3.[48] . . .

    Ukrainian officials in formerly occupied areas continue to unearth Russian torture chambers. The Kherson Oblast Police reported on January 3 that Ukrainian police officers discovered a Russian torture chamber in the basement of the main police department building of Kherson Oblast in Kherson City.[60] Kherson Police stated that officers found objects indicating that Russian forces conducted torture and interrogations in the chamber and held retired law enforcement officers, those identified to hold pro-Ukrainian sentiments, and ordinary Kherson citizens who refused to cooperate with Russian occupation officials there.[61] Ukraine's State Security Service (SBU) reported that SBU personnel discovered a torture chamber in the liberated village of Oleksandrivka in Horokhiv Hromada, Mykolaiv Oblast.[62] The SBU reported that Russian forces tortured residents whom they deemed to be uncooperative using suffocation, beatings, and electric shocks.[63] This is a direct violation of the laws of armed conflict and Article III of the Geneva Convention.[64]

    Russian officials are continuing efforts to deport children to Russia under the guise of cultural programs. . . .
     
  9. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Ukraine Conflict Updates
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 4, 2023

    Click here to read the full report.
    Key Takeaways

    • The Russian milblogger information space continues to seize on official responses to the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Makiivka to criticize endemic issues in the Russian military apparatus and its unwillingness to address systemic failures.
    • The continued construction of Russian units using solely mobilized recruits will not generate combat power commensurate with the number of mobilized personnel deployed.
    • The Russian MoD has again shifted the rhetoric and format of its daily situational reports (SITREPs) likely to flood the information space with insignificant claimed successes and distract from its significant military failures.
    • Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated that Ukrainian forces intend to launch a major counteroffensive throughout Ukraine in the spring of 2023.
    • Russian forces are increasingly reliant upon Iranian-made drones to strike Ukrainian critical infrastructure, and Russia will likely seek further bilateral cooperation with Iran in order to secure a greater number of high-precision weapons systems for use in Ukraine.
    • Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line as Ukrainian strikes reportedly damaged Russian military logistics in Luhansk Oblast.
    • Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut amid continued indicators that the broader offensive may be culminating.
    • Russian forces continued offensive operations on the western outskirts of Donetsk City.
    • Russian forces continued to rebuild force capability and conduct defensive operations in Kherson Oblast on January 4.
    • Select Russian private armament manufacturers are continuing to criticize the Russian military campaign.
    • Russian occupation authorities continued to take measures to resolve administrative issues associated with consolidating Russian control of occupied territories on January 4.
    Ukrainian strikes are reportedly degrading Russian military logistics in Luhansk Oblast. Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai stated on January 4 that Russian forces must now deliver ammunition to the grouping in the Svatove area directly from Luhansk City because Ukrainian forces defeated Russian attempts to build warehouses near Svatove.[36] ISW reported on January 3 that Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed Russian ammunition field warehouses in the Svatove direction.[37] . . . .

    Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian concentration areas in Zaporizhia Oblast on January 4. The Ukrainian General Staff and other official Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck Russian military equipment and personnel concentration areas in Tokmak, Melitopol, Berdyansk, Polohy, and Vasylivka; hitting a command post, wounding over 260 servicemembers, and destroying up to 10 pieces of military equipment.[54] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces shelled Polohy and struck a military hospital in Tokmak and a command post in Vasylivka, Zaporizhia Oblast.[55] Some Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces did not hit a military command post, but instead hit a residential building in Vasylivka.[56] . . . .

    The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on January 4 that Russian forces are moving units to northern Crimea. GUR representative Andriy Chernyak stated that Russian forces are making every effort to preserve the so-called land corridor [сухопутный коридор] to Crimea by transferring units to northern Crimea and building fortifications in the area and in Kherson Oblast.[59] Chernyak stated that maintaining the land corridor was the foundational concept that drove Russian efforts to capture Donetsk Oblast—as they planned to seize the coast of the Sea of Azov and cut off Ukrainian access to the Black Sea—but noted that Western military equipment made the corridor unsafe for Russian forces.[60] Chernyak added that Russian forces are building fortifications and transferring units to northern Crimea because they understand that they will have to fight along these lines eventually.[61] . . . .
     
  10. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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  11. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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  12. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Your #506 referred to "predictions by American generals" (plural). I infer you did not know McFaul was not a general.
     
  13. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Your inference, like your predictions, is faulty. I well know who McFaul is. I've seen him on MSNBC blabbing about meaninglessly back in the days when I could watch that network. You are simply flailing.
     
  14. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Then your error was in language.
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2023
  15. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Meanwhile, this thread is somewhat a monument to your error.
     
  16. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Ukraine Conflict Updates
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 5, 2023

    Click here to read the full report.
    Key Takeaways

    • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire in observance of Russian Orthodox Christmas is likely an information operation intended to damage Ukraine’s reputation.
    • Putin’s framing of the ceasefire on religious ground reinforces another Russian information operation that falsely frames Ukraine as suppressing religious groups and positions Putin as the true protector of the Christian faith.
    • Putin has not changed his fundamental maximalist objectives in Ukraine.
    • Wagner Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that prisoners who volunteered with the Wagner Group in Ukraine received pardons, likely in a bid to inflate his influence and political power, strengthen Wagner Group’s prisoner recruitment, and reassure Wagner Group criminals in uniform.
    • Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line, and Russian forces claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the area.
    • Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a successful counterattack as Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and west of Donetsk City.
    • Russian forces continued to operate sabotage and reconnaissance groups on the Dnipro River and reinforce positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
    • Russian milbloggers claimed recent Russian successes in Zaporizhia Oblast, likely to distract from the slow Russian offensive around Bakhmut that may be culminating.
    • Mobilized Russian servicemembers likely continue to represent an outsized portion of Russian military casualties in Ukraine. . . .
    Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a successful counterattack as Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on January 4 and 5. The Ukrainian State Border Guards Service reported on January 4 that Ukrainian soldiers conducted a tactical counterattack in Bakhmut and advanced 300 meters in an unspecified area, forcing Russian troops to withdraw from certain unspecified positions.[37] Russian sources refuted this report and claimed that Russian troops have advanced northeast and south of Bakhmut and made gains within Bakhmut itself.[38] The Ukrainian General Staff stated on January 5 that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; northeast of Bakhmut near Bilohorivka (22km northeast), Soledar (10km northeast), Krasna Hora (5km north), Vyimka (25km northeast), and Pidhorodne (5km northeast); and south of Bakhmut near Kurdyumivka (12km southwest), Mayorsk (20km south), and Pivnichne (20km southwest).[39] Geolocated footage posted between January 4 and 5 indicates that Russian troops have made marginal advances south of Bakhmut near Opytne (3km south of Bakhmut) and Kurdiumivka.[40] Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner Group forces expanded their control over certain urban areas on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.[41] Former commander of militants in Donbas in 2014 and prominent milblogger Igor Girkin noted that this sector of the front is a “mutual meatgrinder of attrition” for Ukrainian and Russian troops.[42] . . .

    Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian military assets in rear areas of southern Ukraine. Odesa Military Administration Spokesperson Serhiy Bratchuk amplified reports of an explosion of an S-300 missile warehouse in Radensk, Kherson Oblast, which is within range of Ukrainian tube artillery.[55] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed that Russian air defenses activated over Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast on January 4.[56] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed on January 4 a Ukrainian strike in Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast, but denied allegations that Russian forces used a hospital in Tokmak as a military facility.[57] The Russian MoD claimed the hospital strike killed a Russian military medic but otherwise did not comment on casualty counts. . . .
     
  17. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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  18. ToughTalk

    ToughTalk Well-Known Member

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    This is not going to end in 2023. Putin will toss the entire population of Russia at the problem to insure he keeps his land path to Crimea.

    Unless some coup happens that erases Putin, this is gonna drag the **** on. This isn't 1991. Russia will not collapse. They have support this time from China, Iran and India to help keep their economy and war machine working.

    That's just the reality. Anyone predicting the fall of either side in 2023 isn't being realistic. Likely there will be a North Korea/South Korea stand off with little movement.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2023
  19. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    You are correct that this isn't 1991. Russia is immensely weaker than the USSR was. Russian collapse is very possible.
    Some form of stalemate is, strategically, a victory for Ukraine. At that strategic level, Russia has already lost with the creation of an expanded, more unified NATO.
     
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  20. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    A stalemate leaves Ukrainian territory in Russian hands. I'm not sure how that's a strategic victory for Ukraine.
     
  21. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Ukraine remains a free and independent state, with both EU and NATO options still available.
     
  22. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    A stalemate means Russia will continue to occupy parts of Ukraine. If you are calling this a victory, there is the basis for negotiations.
     
  23. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    No, there isn't. If a stalemate results from mutual exhaustion then so be it. But the Ukrainians have every right to fight until the last Russian is removed from the last inch of Ukrainian territory. And we should support them all the way. I expect the Russian effort to collapse at some point.
     
  24. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    OK, then what you are describing isn't a stalemate.
     
  25. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    We disagree.
     

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