Market getting Powellverized

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Lee Atwater, Mar 22, 2023.

  1. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If there was any question about whether the US would go in to recession later this year Jerome sealed its fate. Having contributed to inflation by beginning the interest rate raising cycle too late, the Fed is compounding the error by going to far, too fast. Pockets of the economy are already in recession with more to follow.

    It's going to be a crazy election cycle. Trump's antics, possible multiple indictments, miniTrump on the fringe, the buffoonery of the Crazy in the House, Repubs waiting to launch the Hunter investigations until we are deeper in the cycle, accusations about responsibility for the recession, the POT trying to end all abortions, what a circus.
     
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  2. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I am just so glad that Republicans took the house and have all these bills out to help save the economy from the FED that was elected by… wait… does anyone remember who elected this man or what party he identifies with?

    Oh, it was a Republican that elected him and he is a Republican… and Republicans are not doing anything but investigating a private citizen, threatening private companies and bringing back smoking in the chamber.

    Fascinating
     
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  3. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The country (well, more like the Fed) has kept interest rates down too low for far too long. This was not good for the economy. Eventually it was going to come time to pay the piper, and now we see it, with economic pressures for interest rates to have to rise.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2023
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  4. Steve N

    Steve N Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I had similar thoughts when a deadly Chinese virus was killing Americans and democrats were consumed with impeachments.
     
  5. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I could see a Republican Party under Trump undertake policies like in Japan, China, Singapore, trying to raise middle class birth rates.

    kind of another topic though

    The country does have some deep underlying & inherent problems, which have been going on for a long time, and I doubt these problems are going to get fully addressed in just one Presidential Administration.

    These economic problems are not easy to deal with. If they were, the problems would have already been solved.
    I think for some of these issues, everyone disagrees about what to do, so it's easier for politicians to pass the hot potato down to someone else and not really do anything about it.

    It doesn't take much foresight to see this is eventually going to result in some big problems and probably a knee-jerk reaction once things are so bad something has to be done. And this knee-jerk reaction will probably not be the most well thought out or optimal. Will be done so quickly the public will not have a chance to debate it.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2023
  6. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Tons of bills were created to address COVID.
    What bills have been created by house republicans to address inflation or get the FED under control?
     
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  7. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I don't disagree with that. My point is the Fed delayed, mistakenly, the start of the cycle of raising interest rates which allowed Inflation to become more entrenched.
     
  8. Independent4ever

    Independent4ever Well-Known Member

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    Going to get far worse in a few months - stocks/economy will crash after the debt ceiling is not raised and both parties will be happy to cause it
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2023
  9. Rampart

    Rampart Banned

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    there is nothing in the constitution, the law, or common sense that that would allow trump's party to "raise the middle class birth rate."

    the best ways to increase numbers of "middle class" in a nation purportedly classless include educating and empowering the poor, or taxing the rich.
     
  10. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    In fairness, the whole world delayed. We were probably waiting for the u.s..
     
  11. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The markets have not taken much of a beating considering how much the rates have been hiked, and they are geared to rise quite a bit when the rates hikes stop.

    Inflation has decreased by 30%, but don't expect GOP to help. They NEED the economy to be bad until the 2024 elections.
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2023
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  12. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I stand corrected. Apparently, the selloff was not due to raising rates another .25%. It was due to Yellen's congressional testimony when she said the government will not backstop deposits at all banks.
     
  13. expatpanama

    expatpanama Active Member

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    Major indexes are down almost 25% since a year ago, and in view of the fact that the long term growth for hundreds of years is 10% that means we're over 30% below now than where we should be. If that's not a beating then I'd call that at least very poor performance.
    Latest numbers still put inflation at almost 8%--

    infla202301.PNG
    --and that means the Fed's going to have to be really aggressive for some time to come. Say what you will about how much u hate Republicans, but by and large, most Republicans just like most Democrats want us all to prosper. What folks disagree on seems to be HOW we get there...
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2023
  14. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The market is predicting, based on bond yields, that the aggressive moves the Fed has already made.......which are not yet reflected in economic conditions.......will force it to start cutting rates by early 2024 due to the impending recession.
     
  15. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The between the lines read from Powell's comments yesterday is maybe one more quarter point hike depending on the data and then they are done.
     
  16. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    the head of the fed is a republican, does he think hurting the American economy under a dem president will help republicans, I do not get it
     
  17. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    exactly
     
  18. Just A Man

    Just A Man Well-Known Member

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    Beware when you hear: "I'm from the government and I'm here to help you."
     
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  19. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    In truth, the POT never had a plan to address inflation. They just want to use it as a cudgel against Biden.
     
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  20. Lee Atwater

    Lee Atwater Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Just another addition to the damaging legacy Ronnie left behind.
     
  21. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    LOL. Its more like 6%. In US, that is, I don't know about Panama.

    NASDAQ is fairing worse, but it is also expected to rebound more.
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2023
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  22. expatpanama

    expatpanama Active Member

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    Whoa, just down 6%. Please help me understand how the S&P could look like this---
    snp500.PNG

    --and the NASDAQ could come out like this:
    nasdaq.PNG

    Maybe y'all got a different S&P and NASDAQ in South Florida?
     
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  23. ButterBalls

    ButterBalls Well-Known Member

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    It's been common knowledge that the only way to stop inflation is to TAKE back all that money doled out to people paid to stay at home :) Crashing a economy has it's consequences and voting in a stroker was never going to make things better! What you want this congress to do was never going to happen, the DNC has their agenda, Digital programable credits, ESG and the great reset and like it or not you and I are going to pay for those that voted these DNC tyrants in..

    Hope you're prepared for a Venezuela type America :)
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2023
  24. ButterBalls

    ButterBalls Well-Known Member

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    Called DNC/Leftist fuzzy/logic/math :)
     
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  25. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You said 1 year, and then you moved the goal posts. In 1 year DOW is 6%. NASDAQ is about 14% S&P 11%.

    So, yea, it could be a heck of a lot worse considering the speed of the rate hikes. You do what you think is best for you, but I am investing because I believe the market will increase rapidly as soon as the hikes stop.

    Maybe glass is always half empty on Panama. Or maybe you moved to Panama because it was half empty for you here.
     
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