H5N1 and Your Stupidity

frodo · Jan 29, 2012

What really matters, after this, forget your arguments.

At the end of one of the classic novels of TwenCen SF, the protagonist an illiterate third-class mechanics mate named Gulliver Foyle, bootstrapped by his passion for revenge into the most powerful man in the solar system gets hold of a top-secret doomsday weapon. Think of it as a kind of antimatter which can be detonated by the mere act of thinking about detonating it. He travels across the world in a matter of minutes, appearing in city after city, throwing slugs of the stuff into the hands of astonished and uncomprehending crowds and vanishing again. Finally the authorities catch up with him: Do you know what youve done? they ask, horrified by the utter impossibility of stuffing the genie back in the bottle.

He does: Ive handed life and death back to the people who do the living and the dying.

We are approaching such a moment now, I think. Im speaking, of course, about the new gengineered ferret-killing and potentially, people-decimating variant of H5N1. And call me crazy, but I hope the people with their hands on that button take their lead from Gully Foyle.

For the benefit of anyone who hasnt been following, heres the story so far: your garden-variety bird flu has always been a bug that combines a really nasty mortality rate (>50%) with fairly pathetic transmission, at least among us bipeds (it doesnt spread person-to-person; human victims generally get it from contact with infected birds). But influenzas a slippery (*)(*)(*)(*)(*), always mutating (which is why you keep hearing about new strains of flu every year); so Ron Fouchier, Yoshihiro Kawaoka, and assorted colleagues set out to poke H5N1 with a stick and see what it might take to turn it into something really nasty.

The answer was: less than anybody suspected. A few tweaks, a handful of mutations, and a bite from a radioactive spider turned poor old underachieving bird flu into an airborne superbug that killed 75% of the ferrets it infected. (Apparently ferrets are the go-to human analogues for this sort of thing. I did not know that.) By way of comparison, the Spanish Flu which took out somewhere between 50-100 million people back in 1918 had a mortality rate of maybe 3%.

When Fouchier and Kawaokas teams went to publish these findings, the bird(*)(*)(*)(*) really hit the fan. The papers passed through the US National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity en route to Science and Nature; and that august body strongly suggested that all how-to details be redacted prior to publication. Never mind that the very foundation of the scientific method involves replication of results, which in turn depends upon precise and accurate description of methodology: those very methodological details, the board warned, could enable replication of the experiments by those who would seek to do harm.

Both Science and Nature have delayed publication of the scorching spuds while the various parties figure out what to do. Fouchier and Kawaoka have also announced a 60-day hiatus on further research, although its pretty clear that they intend to use this time to present their case to a skittish public, rather than re-examining it.

Then what?

Opinions on the subject seem to follow a bimodal distribution: lets call the first of those peaks Bioterrorist Mountain, and the other Peak PublicHealth. Those whove planted their flags on the former summit argue that this kind of research should never be released (or even, some say, performed), because if it is, the tewwowists win. Those on the latter peak argue that nature could well pull off this kind of experiment on her own, and we (*)(*)(*)(*) well better do our homework so we know how to deal when she does. Somewhere in between lie the Foothills-of-Accidental-Release, whose denizens point out that even in a bad-guy-free world, chances of someone accidentally tracking the superbug out of the lab are pretty high (one set of calculations puts those odds as high as 80% within four years, even if the tech specs are kept scrupulously under wraps).

Right up front, I do not trust the residents of Bioterrorist Mountain. The National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity has a diverse makeup, including representatives from the Departments of Commerce and Energy, Justice, the Interior and oh, Defense and our old friends at Homeland Security. Theyve already read the details that they would deny to others, and you can be (*)(*)(*)(*) sure that none of them are volunteering to have their memories erased in the name of global security, no sirree. Theyre not so much worried about the efforts of all whod seek to do harm; theyre really only worried about what the other guys might do. Anyone who thinks the US wouldnt gladly use the fruits of such labor against those it considers a threat has not been paying attention to the recent debates among Republican presidential contenders. And once the government starts deciding who gets to see what parts of this or that scientific paper, you have in effect (as one online commenter points out) essentially a biological weapons program1.

Lets assume, though, that we live in some parallel reality where realpolitick doesnt exist, Truth Justice and the American Way is not an oxymoron, and the motives of those whod keep these data under wraps really are purely defensive. Even in the face of such driven-snow purity, suppressing potentially dangerous biomedical findings only works if the other guys cant reinvent your particular wheel: if either the bug itself is hard to come by, or the villains from Derkaderkastan dont know the difference between a thermos and a thermocycler. But avian flu isnt uranium-235, and one of the most surprising findings about this bug was how easy it was to weaponise. (Up until now, everyone figured that increased contagion would go hand-in-hand with decreased lethality.)

Suppression might be a valid option if your enemies have about as much biological expertise as, say, Rick Santorum. That is not a gamble any sane person would make. To quote the head of the Centre on Global Health Security in London: [T]he WHO Advisory Group of Independent Experts that reviews the smallpox research programme noted this year that DNA sequencing, cloning and gene synthesis could now allow de novo synthesis of the entire Variola virus genome and creation of a live virus, using publicly available sequence information, at a cost of about US$200,000 or less.

On the other hand, you have the very real likelihood of an accidental outbreak; of natural mutation to increased virulence; of the bad guys figuring out the appropriate tweaks independent of Kawaokas data. In which case youve got a few thousand epidemiologists whove been frozen out of the Culture Club, improvising by the seat of their pants as they go up against something that makes the Black Plague look like a case of acne.

The folks on Peak PublicHealth believe that this is too important a danger to be thought of in terms of anything as trivial as national security. This is a global health issue; this is a pandemic just waiting to happen, with a kill rate like weve never seen before. Fouchiers and Kawaokas research has given us a heads-up. We can get ahead of this thing and figure out how to stop it before it ever becomes a threat; and the way to do that is to get the community at large working on the problem. The second-last thing you want is a species-decimating plague whose cure is in the hands of a single self-interested political entity. (Admittedly, this is marginally better than the last thing you want, which is a species-decimating plague with no cure at all.)

Back in 2005, Peter Palese and his buddies reverse-engineered the 1918 Spanish Flu virus. They published their findings in full. The usual suspects cried out, but now we know how to kill Spanish Flu. That particular doomsday scenario has been averted. It should come as no surprise that Palese plants his flag on Public Health, and he makes the case far more eloquently (and with infinitely greater expertise) than I ever could.

And down here in the corner, a recent paper in PLoS One that seems curiously relevant to the current discussion, although none of the pundits involved seems to have noticed: Broad-Spectrum Antiviral Therapeutics, by Rider et al. It reports on a new antiviral treatment that goes by the delightfully skiffy acronym DRACO, which induces suicide in virus-infected mammalian cells and leaves healthy cells alone. Its been tested on 15 different viruses dengue, H1N1, encephalomyelitis, kissing cousins of West Nile and hemorrhagic fever to name a few. Its proven effective against all of them in culture. And it keys on RNA helices produced ubiquitously and exclusively by viruses, so if Im reading this right it could potentially be a cure-all for viral infections generally.

We may already be closing on a cure for the ferret-killer, and a lot of its relatives besides.

So, yeah. We can either try to stuff the genie back in the bottle, now that everyone knows how easy it is to make one of their own. Or we can give life and death back to the people who do the living and the dying.

I say, get it out there.
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www.rifters.com/crawl/?p=2703#more-2703

waltky · Apr 27, 2012

Uncle Ferd says dem terrorists gonna try to kill us all...

H5N1 Flu Virus Could be 'Engineered' to Put Hundreds of Millions at Risk, Scientist Tells Homeland Security Committee
April 26, 2012 - If H5N1 bird flu, which has a 60-percent fatality rate, were engineered to spread like seasonal flu, hundreds of millions of lives would be at risk, a scientist told the Senate Homeland Security Committee on Thursday.

What happens if a mammalian transmissible H5N1 flu starts to spread?" Thomas Inglesby, CEO and director of the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, asked rhetorically in his testimony. "Seasonal flu affects 10 to 20 percent of the world every year--as much as a billion people or more," said Inglesby. "The case fatality rate of wild H5N1 in the WHO database is nearly 60 percent, as you indicated. So if a strain of H5N1 with that fatality rate were engineered to spread like seasonal flu, hundreds of millions of peoples lives would be at risk. Even a strain a hundred times less fatal would place at risk millions of peoples lives."

The National Institute of Health released its policy last month on dual-use research, which is designed to implement recommendations made in a 2003 National Academy of Sciences report titled, Biotechnology Research in an Age of Terrorism. Concern has grown recently over advances in the field of biotechnology, in which scientists have created synthetic viruses in laboratories. Inglesby said mistakes can be made in laboratories, like the one in 1977 when H1N1 caused a mini-pandemic, probably from a lab escape. Nine years ago during SARS, there were at least three incidents in which researchers working in BL-3 or BL-4 labs in Singapore, Taiwan and China accidentally infected themselves with SARS, Inglesby said. We have to factor the possibility of human error, surprise and accidents into our calculations of the risk of this research, he said.

During the hearing on biological security and dual-use research, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said Americans have the right to expect that their money, which funds scientific research intended for the common good, will not be used to facilitate terrorism. She said research done by the National Institutes of Health and conducted in Wisconsin and the Netherlands, which resulted in genetic changes to a strain of avian flu that allowed its airborne transmissibility, is expected to be published in two academic journals.

The National Science Advisory Board for National Security, a government advisory board, recommended in December that part of the information be withheld for security reasons, but it has since reversed that decision and advocated full publication of the research done in Wisconsin and a revised paper on the research performed in the Netherlands. The boards decision and reversal have been part of a larger debate within the scientific and national security communities, and there are important arguments being made on both sides, Collins said. When the American people pay for scientific research intended for the common good, they have a right to expect that their money will not be used to facilitate terrorism. These are not hypothetical threats, Collins added. Before he was killed, Anwar al-Awlaki reportedly sought poisons to attack the United States. Adding to these concerns, the new leader of al Qaeda has a medical background. Therefore, he may have an even greater interest in pursuing chemical and biological terrorism, she said.

MORE
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trucker · Apr 27, 2012

humm getting closer i see
http://articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/20/news/la-heb-bird-flu-collins-20120420

The U.S. government will support publication of two controversial research papers, officials said Thursday. The studies report details of experiments in which the deadly H5N1 influenza virus was engineered to pass between mammals, officials said Thursday.
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The National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity asked the journals to postpone publication of the studies when biosecurity experts expressed concern that the new strains, which were able to pass between ferrets, could also pass through the air between people if somehow they were released outside of the lab or re-engineered by rogue scientists who had learned how to make the viruses from the controversial research papers.
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if some ones accidentally releases it yeah ahha

waltky · Jan 26, 2014

Duck killer dies of bird flu...

Vietnamese Man Dies of H5N1 Bird Flu
January 21, 2014 ~ A 52-year-old man in Ho Chi Minh City has become the first person in Vietnam to die from bird flu in nine months.

Vietnamese health officials said Tuesday the man was hospitalized January 11 with a high fever and died a week later. He tested positive for the H5N1 virus. Earlier, the man reportedly killed a duck and came into contact with chickens at a market where several birds later died of unknown causes.

It is Vietnam's first bird flu death since April, when a four-year-old child died. The World Health Organization reports that 63 people have died of bird flu in Vietnam since 2003. Worldwide, WHO said 385 people have died out of a total of 649 confirmed H5N1 cases in humans.

The virus usually only infects humans who come into direct contact with diseased birds. Some scientists fear H5N1 could mutate into a form readily transmissible between humans, with the potential to cause many more deaths.

http://www.voanews.com/content/vietnamese-man-dies-of-h5n1-bird-flu/1834282.html
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garyd · Jan 27, 2014

Get it out there??? Are you kidding? potential for 3.5 billion dead or more and you think this is a good thing or what? With many of the early victims being relatively scarce health care providers?

Regular Joe · Jan 29, 2014

Get it out there? Already been tried!!
http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2009/03/07/live-avian-flu-virus-placed-in-baxter-vaccine-materials-sent-to-18-countries/
If you don't like that source, do a Google search with the key words: H5N1 Baxter Labs.
I saw this when it first broke. Considering the virulence, along with air travel of infected persons, global death toll was estimated to be as high as 3 billion within 2 weeks.
It's flu season! Hurry and get your shot!

banchie · Jan 29, 2014

Well send me a dose & I'll try it for them. I wonder about some of the current flu viruses and how people contract them. Do they come from an infected person spitting in a drain, the water headed to the treatment plant where chemicals can't kill it, through the filters and back into someone's water tap again.

And a good reason to stay away from medical treatment facilities, waiting rooms, etc.

Dr. Rider says that although more extensive testing is needed, "DRACO has the potential to revolutionize the treatment and prevention of virtually all viral diseases, including everything from the common cold to Ebola." He adds, "Because the antiviral activity of DRACO is so broad spectrum, we hope that it may even be useful against outbreaks of new or mutated viruses, such as the 2003 SARS [severe acute respiratory syndrome] outbreak."

This work is funded by a grant from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the New England Regional Center of Excellence for Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases, with previous funding from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, and Director of Defense Research & Engineering (now the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering).
Posted August 2011

lizarddust · Jan 29, 2014

waltky said: ↑

Duck killer dies of bird flu...

Vietnamese Man Dies of H5N1 Bird Flu
January 21, 2014 ~ A 52-year-old man in Ho Chi Minh City has become the first person in Vietnam to die from bird flu in nine months.
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Meanwhile there are over 50,000 cases of dengue fever each year in Vietnam, with how many deaths?

johnmayo · Jan 29, 2014

banchie said: ↑

Well send me a dose & I'll try it for them. I wonder about some of the current flu viruses and how people contract them. Do they come from an infected person spitting in a drain, the water headed to the treatment plant where chemicals can't kill it, through the filters and back into someone's water tap again.

And a good reason to stay away from medical treatment facilities, waiting rooms, etc.

Dr. Rider says that although more extensive testing is needed, "DRACO has the potential to revolutionize the treatment and prevention of virtually all viral diseases, including everything from the common cold to Ebola." He adds, "Because the antiviral activity of DRACO is so broad spectrum, we hope that it may even be useful against outbreaks of new or mutated viruses, such as the 2003 SARS [severe acute respiratory syndrome] outbreak."

This work is funded by a grant from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the New England Regional Center of Excellence for Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases, with previous funding from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, and Director of Defense Research & Engineering (now the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering).
Posted August 2011
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Agreed. Have banchie try it first and see how deadly it really is.

Who pays these scientists to do these dumb things and can we stop the payment? Thanks!

snakestretcher · Jan 29, 2014

johnmayo said: ↑

Agreed. Have banchie try it first and see how deadly it really is.

Who pays these scientists to do these dumb things and can we stop the payment? Thanks!
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Yep. We spent god knows how many years and how much money in eliminating the Smallpox virus, and they still keep the stuff locked up in a vault. Why?

samiam5211 · Jan 29, 2014

snakestretcher said: ↑

Why?
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Research.

Take off your tin foil hat, no one wants what's inside you head.

snakestretcher · Jan 29, 2014

samiam5211 said: ↑

Research.

Take off your tin foil hat, no one wants what's inside you head.
Click to expand...

Research into what, exactly? What else do we need to know about a virus which has killed over 300 million people just in the 20th century? We have a vaccine for Smallpox and we don't need the virus kept alive any longer.
http://esciencenews.com/articles/2009/12/22/mystery.solved.scientists.now.know.how.smallpox.kills

waltky · Jun 2, 2016

Deadly chickens in Cameroon...

H5N1 Virus Resurfaces in Cameroon
June 02, 2016 Huge quantities of live chickens and other table birds are stockpiling in Kiossi on Cameroon's southern border, following a ban on Cameroon table birds by neighboring Gabon and Equatorial Guinea. The ban was announced as a result of the resurgence of the avian influenza virus that has claimed 40,000 birds.

Farm owner Elizabeth Medoung is transporting her birds from Yaounde to Equatorial Guinea and Gabon. She says at Kiossi she was informed that those countries had banned the sale of poultry from Cameroon. She says Cameroon authorities have asked them to stop selling birds, claiming there is a disease killing fouls in Yaounde, and they have no other choice but to accept the order and look for markets elsewhere.

Chickens with H5N1 virus.

The H5N1 virus reappeared in Cameroon on May 22, after an 8-year absence. It claimed 20,000 chickens, and 20,000 others were destroyed in the capital, Yaounde. Cameroon's minister of livestock, fishing and animal industry, Dr. Taiga, says among measures taken to protect both people and birds from further contamination was the prohibition of the sale of poultry in Yaounde, the only town affected so far. He says he has prohibited the exit and entry of poultry in Yaounde and ordered the immediate killing and burial of all birds in the affected area. He says he has prohibited the movement of people and animals to the affected areas, and ordered more stocks of antiretroviral treatment and individual protection gadgets. He says he has asked his collaborators to investigate if all those who came into contact with the poultry farms in question were affected.

Prices drop

Since the announcement that the virus had resurfaced in Yaounde, poultry farm owners began looking for markets out of the capital city. The price of chicken has fallen by at least 50 percent, from about 20 U.S. dollars per 4 to 5 Kg chicken to barely 10 dollars. Veterinary doctor Ichakou Albert, also communication officer of Cameroon's inter-professional council of poultry farmers, says it has dealt a blow to their business and they have asked the government to educate the population that the virus was discovered only in Yaounde. He says it is a difficult and very serious situation for them and he wants to indicate that it is an isolated case. He says the government is still to clarify if it is an epidemic or a pandemic and that if it is an epidemic, it means many poultry farms in many places have been infected but they are told the only farm that is contaminated is at Mvog Betsi in Yaounde and as such panic should not be created all over Cameroon.

Fears are growing that without timely intervention, the virulent avian flu virus in Cameroon may spread across central and West African states. The virus first arrived in the region in 2006. When the virus resurfaced in Nigeria in 2014, it spread rapidly within three months to Cameroon and Niger. At least five countries reported outbreaks in 2015. As of last year, more than 1.6 million birds in West Africa had been affected, according to the U.N. The government fears the virus may jump from birds to humans, especially now that the prices of birds have had a 70 percent reduction and many people who could not afford chicken are now going for it.

http://www.voanews.com/content/h5n1-virus-resurfaces-claiming-40-thousand-birds/3358698.html
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waltky · Dec 6, 2016

H5N6 spreading from farm fowl to wildlife...

Bird flu virus spreading in South Korea from farm to wildlife
Dec. 6, 2016 - Investigators recently identified the H5N6 virus among migratory birds.

Cases of bird flu are growing in South Korea where at least six farms have reported the presence of the H5N6 virus. Another cluster of infections was confirmed near a chicken farm in Haenam, South Jeolla Province, South Korean news service Newsis reported Tuesday. The farm in Haenam has already been designated an infected site, but the pathogen is also spreading among migratory birds in a nearby habitat in Kumho Lake, according to the report.

Provincial authorities conducted an investigation on Nov. 30 of 40 birds from the wildlife habitat. Results showed two Eurasian teals and one spoonbill carrying the H5N6 virus. South Korean investigators will know by Wednesday whether the confirmed presence of the virus poses the risk of an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza. A different strain of the virus, the H5N1, known to cause the Asian Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, has proven to be fatal for poultry, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The virus can infect humans, and some infections have resulted in deaths, but human-to-human spread is rare, according to the CDC. The farm near the lake was confirmed an infected site on Nov. 18 and is located less than 10 miles from the wildlife sanctuary. All six farms that have reported outbreaks are located in Sani-myeon, a district in South Jeolla Province. Authorities said they have conducted clinical examinations of 210,000 chickens and ducks but no further infections were found. South Jeolla Province is planning a disinfection of the area.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...farm-to-wildlife/9901481039077/?spt=sec&or=tn
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crank · Dec 6, 2016

banchie said: ↑

Well send me a dose & I'll try it for them. I wonder about some of the current flu viruses and how people contract them. Do they come from an infected person spitting in a drain, the water headed to the treatment plant where chemicals can't kill it, through the filters and back into someone's water tap again.

And a good reason to stay away from medical treatment facilities, waiting rooms, etc.

Dr. Rider says that although more extensive testing is needed, "DRACO has the potential to revolutionize the treatment and prevention of virtually all viral diseases, including everything from the common cold to Ebola." He adds, "Because the antiviral activity of DRACO is so broad spectrum, we hope that it may even be useful against outbreaks of new or mutated viruses, such as the 2003 SARS [severe acute respiratory syndrome] outbreak."

This work is funded by a grant from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the New England Regional Center of Excellence for Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases, with previous funding from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, and Director of Defense Research & Engineering (now the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering).
Posted August 2011
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The very best way to avoid the flu is to be as healthy as possible (no drinking or smoking, no obesity, and physically fit), and get loads of sleep. I'm exposed to viruses ALOT, but I actually catch less of them than many people who aren't. Being super healthy, even when we do contract a virus, we won't get nearly as sick (and are much less likely to die) than those who aren't healthy.

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