How long can Bernie last ?

With O'Malley dropped it's now a two horse race on the Dem side. Going strictly by current polling Sanders will take NH easily at this point in time. However in SC she is ahead by over 30 points at RCP. The Nevada polls are too old to even consider. Might just be me but I do't foresee Bernie taking anything else after NH till we hit the left coast. He has a little under 4 mil in his coffers as of this post. Question is will he even make it any farther than Super Tuesday ? Iowa was really no surprise so I don't think that will factor in much if any effect, and only Hillary doing better than her polling would surprise in NH

 

BS will win New Hampshire, Vermont, and then its over.

maybe he'll get Maine. Maybe Washington or Oregon.

But Clinton has most Democrats in the bag.

 

"till we hit the left coast."

Typically the "left coast" refers to Mexifornia formerly known as California, the state of fruits and nuts and they aren't referring to the stuff you eat.

By time time those living on the "left coast" get their say who will win the Republican and or Democrat nominations for President, the vast majority of the candidates have already dropped out and it's already pretty much has been decided who will win the nominations.

We here in the Peoples Republik of California don't get to cast our votes until June 7th, 2016.

 

I hope he can go as far as he can.

 

sounds damn good, that mo will carry him

 

there is one benefit to BS staying in for another month or two.

I want Hillary to propose something big, like paid maternity leave for 4 months.

for ALL citizens.

she needs to take something from Bernie, to get the Progressives excited.

perhaps also a big plan to reduce college loans to 3% interest rate, and create a system where college kids can pay back student loans for 4 years of public college, with volunteer work, americorps, etc.

as for healthcare, she needs to maybe get Medicare to negotiate drug prices.

and maybe create a nation-wide prescription drug insurance plan.

 

So you want her to openly lie to people? She isn't a progressive, so she will never do anything in that fashion. She is a conservative who pretends to be liberal.

 

no, she's a Liberal.

 

I find it hilariously depressing that you believe that.

 

Trump has recently done a belated "Me too!" after Clinton and Sanders championed negotiating Medicare Rx prices.

 

He will make it at least to Super Tuesday. (and for the love of God, don't rely on RCP polling averages)

 

Yep, by the latest count Hillary has racked up around 500 of the 712 super delegates to date. Sanders maybe 25-30. Sanders never had a chance.

 

For all its institutional advantages, the Clinton campaign lags behind the Sanders operation in deploying paid staff members: For example, Mr. Sanders has campaign workers installed in all 11 of the states that vote on Super Tuesday. Mrs. Clinton does not, and is relying on union volunteers and members of supportive organizations such as Planned Parenthood to help her.....snip~

 

I give Bernie until March 2016 by then he should be in that nursing home recovering from his next tie breaker , the chicken bone toss ! Hil LIAR y hired David Copperfield to do the last coin flip !

 

that should give a good diverse indication of party excitement or lack thereof. Exit polls on Super Tuesday will be worth looking at.

On polling it seems all publicly viewed polls have decided their job is to influence public opinion instead of reflect it so I take them all with a grain or salt. I like Huffposts pollster and RCPs averages since they smooth the outliers and you can get some idea of the general movement. I expect to see lots and lots of spin on this weeks polls on both sides

 

You are correct about polls leading opinion, but you are not so correct about the RCP smoothing outlying results IMO. It does the opposite--it distorts the more reliable numbers. It only takes a few sketchy polls to really throw a monkey wrench into things. If you do not think any of the polls that are in the RCP average are reflective of reality, then why would you think the RCP average was reliable with those numbers included? It is a little like saying it is okay to go with spoiled milk as long as you throw a banana in the cereal too.

I personally tend to favor Rasmussen's numbers, but really I would suggest you stick with one or two sources and follow them over a long period so you develop a feel for how that source comes in over or under.

 

Super Tuesday will finish him.

 

Bernie needs to drastically change his campaign if he has any chance of winning. I don't understand why Bernie is campaigning so hard in New Hampshire. I think he needs to get out of New Hampshire and make appearances in South Carolina and the south in general. He's not going to lose New Hampshire anyway. He should say something like "We will win this nomination. The people of New Hampshire are familiar with our campaign, know that we can win, and I trust the judgement of the people in New Hampshire in their choice of the best possible candidate. New Hampshire is important to me, but this is a national election and we must win. Our message must reach the rest of the country."

Super Tuesday is far more important and he is way behind right now. Hillary is up by +30 in many Super Tuesday states and he needs to get this to under +10 if he even has a small chance of winning the nomination. Ideally, he would need to get it to at least even, and he needs to at least win a few states if he has a decent shot at winning. He should be spending every penny of campaign financing so far for tv ads in the south targeting blacks and seniors. There is no reason why he should not appeal to these demographics, as his ideas best align with these groups. White liberals are not a very big demographic and young people don't vote so he must expand his base.

I think he needs to cool down the approach of a political revolution, super pac talk, and the talking points of young, college voters. He needs to spend every second of tv time appealing to older voters and some on black issues. I believe Bernie can win, but he seems to be conceding already, and if something drastic doesn't happen, he'll effectively be out after Super Tuesday.

 

Problem for him is that as the underdog he needs a big win to keep up the 'momentum' narrative. he is now expected to get that big win in NH. A smaller win risks looking good for Clinton.

Problem for Bernie is that he needs to do it all at once. Hilary has a big head start.

Yes, but they are his base and, more importantly, his footsoldiers and his bank. They are also motivated by identifying with the values of the candidate, rather a long term commitment or ongoing relationship. Hillary has pre-existing organizations to help her, Bernie has enthusiastic, infatuated & flaky college kids. If they stop 'feeling the Bern' he dies. Quickly.

Again, he needs to do everything at once.

He needs to build relationships in minority communities in weeks that the Clintons & their allies have spent decades building. A few TV spots won't do it. My observation of Sanders supporters is that they spend as much time telling you why they will lose & how unfair it is as they do telling you why he will/should win. Not a great sign.

 

Without expressing my bias, I would say we are currently in 'let's wait and see' mode. Bernie could end his campaign or people like me would dismiss him if he loses New Hampshire. Otherwise I'd say the 'wait and see' mode will end on Super Tuesday and it will be clear just how much support or lack of it Sanders will get. So he will last until March 1st at least, but longer if he can win over minorities after learning more about him (That is a very big IF however).

 

Bernie stays in as long as Clinton's e-mail practices remain on news backburners. In the unlikely event she runs into an indictment, the DNC can't afford to run No One for the Presidency now, can they? Bringing in "Average Joe" Biden from the crowd would look even more haphazard than he'll sound.

 

nothing based in reality here, folks, move along, nothing to see

 

My guess is If the Dem turnout is low in SC there is a very small chance that Hillary will be indited or pardoned and Kerry will announce. That is a very small chance of course. I fully expect the Dems will ride the old nag all the way to November while downplaying her reckless behavior with National security. If Bernie can come within 5 points of her in SC I would be shocked. He can pull in the college crowd in the lowcountry and Columbia area but I can't see him doing anything in the rest of the state other than a small percentage up around the NC border near Charlotte and that is a pure maybe. On the other hand I have seen more of Bernie's signs in people yards than I have Clinton signs so who knows

 

Old Beat-Nix Bernie is going to have a train wreck come the morning after the South Carolina votes. His campaign is winning on the these young Uninformed and don't realize the facts what they face should he become the President. Here is a few words that Hillary Clinton should op=put on paper and hand out to the people that believe in Old Bernie.

This what Chris Matthews asked Clinton on TV yesterday 2/2

I'm going to say this bluntly. The only person standing between a confirmed socialist who is calling for political revolution in this country winning the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party, which has always been more moderate than that, is you. So, when you saw that rally last night, the young people all around Senator Sanders, when he yelled "revolution" out there, and they all applauded like mad, do you think that's going to help in the general election or is it what we used to call in the Sixties an NDC candidacy—"November Doesn't Count"—we just want to win the party, we don't care about the general. You seem to be focused on the general. How do you beat a person who comes along in the primaries who says, 'I'm going to give you everything you want: free tuition, more Social Security benefits, no increase in your taxes, free health-care from birth, all of it government-paid.' How do you compete with a revolution? A revolution of promises, really.

 

Fair enough arguments. I still think getting the black vote and senior vote and being more well known among these groups is more important than momentum. I agree he would die quickly if he loses that young support, but he's going to die quickly if he loses Super Tuesday by 20-30 points anyway. I agree he needs to do everything at once, but I don't want to see him burn himself out before he would even get into office.

It's unfortunate that the black vote and senior vote is being used as an attack against him even though his candidacy would support these groups more than any other candidate. These groups still don't know enough about him. I think being the only candidate opposite of Hillary has really increased his exposure. O'Malley getting out of the race, the Iowa caucus and a couple high profile debates have really increased his exposure nationwide, and a couple recent polls show he's nearly completely closed the gap nationwide. I think being the only candidate to oppose Hillary is a factor that is overlooked in dramatically increasing his popularity.

I agree on your last point. He can win. I think he is very electable beating every Republican candidate head to head right now. I think there's a 90% chance a Democrat is going to win if it's Bernie or Hillary. The Republicans have a very poor field of candidates. I think he needs to make this point that no matter who the Republicans choose, he will win the head to head matchup. His campaign manager on tv should be telling people why he is going to win rather than why he might lose.