Giant iceberg blocks scientists' study of 'Doomsday Glacier'

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by dharbert, Feb 2, 2022.

  1. dharbert

    dharbert Well-Known Member

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    Giant iceberg blocks scientists' study of 'Doomsday Glacier' (msn.com)

    Antarctica’s so-called Doomsday Glacier, nicknamed because it is huge and coming apart, is mostly thwarting an international effort to figure out how dangerously vulnerable it is.

    A large iceberg broke off the deteriorating Thwaites glacier and, along with sea ice, it is blocking two research ships with dozens of scientists from examining how fast its crucial ice shelf is falling apart.

    What worries scientists is that leading edge of the huge glacier is breaking apart in many places. Even though total collapse of the glacier could take hundreds or thousands of years, the edge is falling apart much sooner.

    If all of Thwaites collapses, it could raise seas around the globe more than two feet (65 centimeters) but that could take hundreds of years, scientists say.

    Read that again. Hundreds to thousands of years. So much for the climate "emergency"....
     
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  2. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    Some scientists have said that the Thwaites Glacier could melt in a few decades but a few hundred years seems to be the most likely scenario
    according to people who model melting glaciers. If the Thwaites Glacier completely melts down that would cause other glaciers in West Antarctica
    to melt down, raising global sea levels by about 10 feet. The meltdown of West Antarctica could take more than 1000 years. It may already be too late
    to prevent this from happening. Pine Island Glacier is also very vulnerable to a melt down and is located in West Antarctica.

    It is only an emergency if there is something that can be done to prevent this from happening or to slow the rate of these glaciers from melting
    so that humanity can adapt to the changes brought on by rising sea levels.

    Pine Island Glacier - Wikipedia
    Weak underbelly of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet[edit]
    The Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers are two of Antarctica's five largest ice streams. Scientists have found that the flow of these ice streams has accelerated in recent years, and suggested that if they were to melt, global sea levels would rise by 1 to 2 m (3 ft 3 in to 6 ft 7 in), destabilising the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet and perhaps sections of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.[12]

    In 1981 Terry Hughes proposed that the region around Pine Island Bay may be a "weak underbelly" of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.[13] This is based on the fact that, unlike the majority of the large West Antarctic ice streams, those flowing into the Amundsen Sea are not protected from the ocean by large floating ice shelves. Also, although the surface of the glacier is above sea level, the base lies below sea level and slopes downward inland, this suggests that there is no geological barrier to stop a retreat of the ice once it has started.
     
  3. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Nothing can be done about geothermal heat.
    [​IMG]
    Until Recently Scientists Believed Climate Change Has Been Melting Antarctic Glaciers. Now They Do Not.

    By Kenneth Richard on 6. September 2021

    According to a new study, 36% of 1979-2017 Antarctic ice loss was from the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers. Scientists believed this glacier melt was due to anthropogenic climate change “until recently”. Now they say the glacier mass losses are due to the thin underlying crust and anomalously high geothermal heat in this region. We’ve […]
     
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  4. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    I've addressed this issue of the "No Tricks Zone" manufacturing a claim about what scientists believe out of thin air. The article referenced by
    the "No Tricks Zone" makes no such claim about scientists changing their view on what is causing the melting of West Antarctica's Thwaites
    and Pine Island glaciers. Geothermal heat is affecting the base of those glaciers so that they will slide more easily against the bedrock.
    No comments are made by the scientists about how much of the melting is due to geothermal heat. If scientists have changed their minds about
    climate change no longer being the primary cause of the melting of these glaciers then I would expect a statement to that effect.
     
  5. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    I don't think you looked very hard. NTZ thoughtfully posted an excerpt from the paper and linked it. Your position is untenable.

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: (Dziadek et al., 2021)
     
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  6. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    I have read the original article mentioned above (Dziadek et al., 2021) more than once and I can't find that author saying that geothermal heat
    is primarily responsible for the melting of West Antarctica's glaciers or that human caused climate change is not the main cause. If the
    author believed that was true and supported by his research he would have explicitly said so. He refrained from drawing that conclusion.
    The No Tricks Zone draws that conclusion because it supports their narrative that human caused climate change is something that we don't
    have to worry about.

    The portion of the article that is presented in the previous post is not sufficient evidence to draw that conclusion.

    I have found no articles supporting geothermal heat as the primary cause for the accelerated melting of the Thwaites and
    Pine Island Glaciers. I have found one article that disputes geothermal heat as the primary cause. It mentions vulcanism
    as not being the primary cause and there have been no volcanic eruptions in the recent geological past. The amount of geothermal heat is too
    small to account for the accelerated melting of those glaciers, the melting occurs mostly at the interface where the glaciers
    face the ocean, and there is no evidence of any increase in geothermal heat in recent decades. The paper below describes
    the effects of geothermal heat on the base of the Pine Island Glacier which is around 80 milliwatts/square meter. The geothermal
    heat under the Thwaites Glacier is higher at over 110 milliwatts/square meter as shown above in post #5. If 80 milliwatts/square meter
    is not a significant contributor to the melting of the Pine Island Glacier, would 110 milliwatts/square meter be a significant
    source of melting for the Thwaites Glacier?

    Fire and Ice: Why Volcanic Activity Is Not Melting the Polar Ice Sheets – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet (nasa.gov)

    An intriguing paper by Loose et al. published in Nature Communications in 2018 provides additional evidence. The researchers measured the composition of isotopes of helium detected in glacial meltwater flowing from the Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf. They found evidence of a source of volcanic heat upstream of the ice shelf. Located on the West Antarctic ice sheet, Pine Island Glacier is the fastest melting glacier in Antarctica, responsible for nearly a quarter of all Antarctic ice loss. By measuring the ratio between helium’s two naturally-occurring isotopes, scientists can tell whether the helium taps into Earth’s hot mantle or is a product of crust that is relatively passive tectonically.

    The team found the helium originated in Earth’s mantle, pointing to a volcanic heat source that may be triggering melting beneath the glacier and feeding the water network beneath it. However, the researchers concluded that the volcanic heat is not a significant contributor to the glacial melt observed in the ocean in front of Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf. Rather, they attributed the bulk of the melting to the warm temperature of the deep-water mass Pine Island Glacier flows into, which is melting the glacier from underneath.

    Seroussi notes the changes happening now, especially in West Antarctica, are along the coast, which suggests the changes taking place in the ice sheet have nothing to do with volcanism, but are instead originating in the ocean. Ice streams reaching inland begin to flow and accelerate as ice along the coast disappears.

    In addition, Seroussi says the tectonic plate that Antarctica rests upon is one of the most immobile on Earth. It’s surrounded by activity, but that activity also tends to keep it locked in position. There’s no reason to believe it would change today to impact the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet.

    So, in conclusion, while Antarctica’s known volcanism does cause melting, Ivins and Seroussi agree there’s no connection between the loss of ice mass observed in Antarctica in recent decades and volcanic activity. The Antarctic ice sheet is at least 30 million years old, and volcanism there has been going on for millions of years. It's having no new effect on the current melting of the ice sheet.
     
  7. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Your post is mere denial and easily dismissed on any fair reading of the research. I'm surprised you would attempt to answer 2021 research with a paper published in 2018. And btw, although all vulcanism can be classed as geothermal heat, not all geothermal heat can be called vulcanism.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2022

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