Cook Political Report: 'Both sides see the possibility of a Red Tsunami in 2022'

Cook Political Report: 'Both sides see the possibility of a Red Tsunami in 2022'

"Cook Political Report acknowledges that the midterms are shaping up as very bad for Democrats."

​

I think that the "Red Wedding" election is oversold. They keep comparing GOP polling edge of today with the wave elections of 1994 and 2010 and then extrapolating from there. What that analysis misses is that both of those elections followed Blue Waves the previous year, which meant that Dems had picked up a lot of close districts, then when the wave goes the other way, they lost all those seats and them some more. Why does that matter?

Because except for the highly questionable overvote for Babbles and Kackles, the GOP had a very good 2020 election and very nearly retook the House, that is, they have already retaken the close seats. In many ways this will be a solid GOP performance that builds on the solid GOP performance of 2020 and we could see a very good election that nets the GOP 20 seats or so, and with it, a solid majority.

 

GOP should get majorities in both Houses, then instead of gridlock pass popular legislation in direct contradiction to Biden's agenda and force him to veto it.

Keep up the pressure.

 

That should be the plan….

 

So the real goal has nothing to do with making America greater it is punishing those that you disagree with?
I would hope Republicans would be more interested in improvement.

 

Making America greater feels like punishment to Democrats.

 

Not what I said...I said I hoped Republicans would be more interested in improving the country instead of promoting more gridlock and putting political pressure on the opposing party we have had enough of this from both parties.
Are you always looking to start a fight?

 

They hate that whole concept. Denying our exceptional status as a great nation is their reason for being…

 

Yes, a lot of folks overlook the 13 seats gained by the GOP in 2020. Then in redistricting, gerrymandering if you will the Democrats added 11 more seats while the GOP lost 6. Here’s 4 examples of what took place.

Illinois added 3 democratic seats, eliminate 2 GOP seats and 1 competitive seat

New Jersey added 3 democratic seats, eliminated 1 GOP seat and 2 competitive seats.

New York added 3 democratic 3 seats, eliminated 3 Republican seats and 1 competitive seat. New York lost a seat due to the 2020 census.

Oregon added 2 Democratic seats, eliminated 2 competitive seats.

But it’s not all doom and gloom. Here’s the latest on redistricting. Louisiana became the 46th state to complete their redistricting process. There are now 4 states left. 389 districts are now completed, leaving 46 districts to be redrawn. There are 39 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 27 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Safe seats as of 2 April 2022, 172 Democratic, 178 Republican.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive/at risk column and those districts yet to be redrawn a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 46 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 40. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 4 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column and how many go into the competitive, at risk column. The 4 remaining states are Maryland, New Hampshire, Florida and Missouri.

Looking also at the generic congressional ballot, the GOP has a 3-point lead there. I’d say you estimate of a 20-seat gain for the Republicans is probably very close to the actual outcome. That is going by today’s numbers.

 

There are plenty of Republicans who genuinely are. Sometimes, you'll even get thoughtful posts from them here. But a quick look through the threads should make clear how much of the content on this site is just trolling and wild insults. I recommend that you just ignore it if you want to get anything out of the site.

 

The only way to improve government is to make it smaller. Neither party wants to do that. At least punishing the opposition doesn't grow government. I hope we can maintain some gridlock. Political gridlock is a very good thing.

 

We likely need the State Legislatures to jointly adopt some constitutional amendments to contain the growth of the national government and restore the balance of power between State/National governments that was tipped so far in the national government's direction with the rise of the 'progressive' movement.

I think the following should be considered:

1. On the passage of identical legislation by a majority of the State Legislatures it goes to the President to be signed into law. The President's veto may be overridden by the majority vote of two thirds of the State Legislatures.
2. The State Legislature may recall their Senator on a majority vote. The Governor will appoint their replacement to serve until the next regularly scheduled election.
3. A balanced budget amendment that requires a balanced budget by the national government unless the requirement is lifted, for one year, by a 2/3rds vote of both Houses.

 

New York lost in court and may have to redo theirs…

 

All of this can be done via constitutional amendment called for by the states. 2/3 of the states can make proposed changes to the constitution that 2/3 of both houses of congress can.

 

I don't like #1 because it sets up battling legislatures and adds uncompromising complexity to the process. I would make #2 even stronger and go back to the practice of having state legislatures appoint senators. States would have their say in the senate and the people would have theirs in the house. #3, of course, is a given. The problem is that federal government, unlike state governments, can spend money into existence. You need to outlaw that as well.

 

I too wish #1 was not necessary, but, Congress regardless of party, does not serve us, and #1 would give us an alternative. Further, with the ability to recall Senators, any "battle" wouldn't last long.

As for returning to the Legislative appointment of Senators, remember that the Legislatures begged to be relieved of that power and for us to adopt the elected process. While I could find practically nothing in the ratification debates about how this would shift power from State to Fed, and it did. State's Rights, for example, steadily dropped from the Senate confirmation debates on judicial and cabinet nominees, whereas, it had previously dominated the process, and as wave after wave of nominees have been confirmed by the Senate with little to no commitment to federalism, the power of the central state has grown into a massive out of control entity, that has run up a debt greater than annual GDP that is funding dangerous bioweapons research in at least China and Ukraine, that it appears, even Congress wasn't officially aware of.

The State Legislatures claimed that Senate selection so dominated their calendar that they were unable to complete the rest of their work. Bribes flowed, waves of special interests would push for their candidate with the promise of support withheld if their demands were not met, and in some cases, the Legislature wouldn't hold a vote, for months at a time, leaving them unrepresented in the Senate. This suggested tweak would let State Legislatures back into the game while assuring someone was selected, every election cycle. Governors currently appoint replacements for vacant seats, so, it's not really introducing a new process that could produce unanticipated results.

 

Yes, on redistricting, Dems have been on a romp. That may be getting reined in a bit though:

While the GOP has been badly bruised by very effective Democrat Gerrymandering, that very nearly picked up all the seats the Dems lost in the 2020 election, that rampage may finally be coming to a close:

Pigs get fed,
Hogs get slaughtered.
If Dems would have been satisfied with just being pigs, they probably would have gotten these maps past the judge, but, they chose to be hogs and got the gavel slammed on them.

​

Fat Jerry Nadler's District isn't just a salamander, it's a serpent.

Tried to Jerry Mander One State so hard that it off set all the GOP gains in the rest of the country.

It's more important that they get the maps right than it is that they hold the election early.

Biden carried 52% of the vote and Dems want 88% of the seats. No wonder the Judge halted this.

 

This is great and all, but it would be a lot better if a red tsunami came from the right making better policies instead of because the lefts policies suck so hard.
This is setting the bar low IMO

republicans really need to breathe some new life and ideas into their platform and not only do well when democrats are doing crappy

 

Biden heads for bunker. Democrats scramble in anticipation of Congressional Investigations after the new Congress is sworn in.

WaPo reported, "White House readies for tough probes that would follow a GOP takeover."

NYT: "‘It’s Time to Head for the Lifeboats’: Democratic Fatalism Intensifies. Strategists and pollsters are increasingly talking about limiting the party’s expected losses in November rather than how to gain new seats."

As Biden's midterm election looms, some recall that in 1894 Democrat Grover Cleveland lost 127 seats in his midterm election as the Resurgent GOP captured 130 additional seats.