Inflation and disposable income

Show us the numbers (hint: you don't have them.)

"Gone by Spring" Now guess who said that that, and disbanded the pandemic team, and suppressed the response as long as he could because he didn't want his hotel business to take a hit... That's one of the dumber lies I've seen lately, because we have so many here, that means something.

NATO was weaker.

The economy was heavily stressed, ignoring that would have just made things worse.

Given the mess Trump left behind, Biden's done a lot better than I expected.

One last thing, I have no doubt you will keep repeating your lies. Don't expect anyone that pays attention to take them seriously.

 

That is based on consumer confidence, not really the stock market. Remember, certain stocks rose and the DJIA and the NASDAQ plummeted in the beginning of our lockdowns, but by the end of 2020 was rising despite the struggles of the economy with global supply chain issues.

Furthermore, in 2021, the DJIA rose 27% in a one-year time frame despite all the calls from the GOP stating that "inflation is rising, the economy is doomed, and all that fluff and stuff.

The point is that the DJIA and the NASDAQ are a reflection of consumer confidence. If consumer confidence is low, then the Dow and NASDAQ generally get in a bear mode instead of a bull mode.

 

The main reason why LFPR is low is because we have an older population who are now retiring, gone fishing, etc, like me for instance. We have decreased our worker to retiree ratio from 3 to one in the 1960s to less than 1 to 1 now. The only group that is allowing us to keep steady, is gasp, immigrants, both legal and illegal BTW.

https://www.investors.com/news/labor-force-participation-rate-low/

 

Brandon has done horribly, Trump has the best economy in our lifetime and Brandon has quite literally one of the worst. Let’s go Brandon

 

And inflation did start to rise in 2021 and people's confidence rightly so is bearish on the economy because they are seeing prices rise.

 

Hmmm. I was under the impression that gross income minus income taxes equalled your GROSS (take home) pay (income), and that DISPOSABLE income was the difference between your take home pay and your bills. If I bring home $5K a month and my bills are $5K I have zero disposable income, but if I lowered my bills NOW I have disposable income.

 

Not the recent drastic fall, because we have been paying people to drop out of the workforce and people are working longer than ever and the retirement age has been raised. I for one worked passed my retirement date.


It started back during the Obama/Biden/Dem years then started to pick back up under the Trump/Rep years. You can also look at the mid-late 1990's when the Reps forced welfare reform. We hit our peak and then after the 2001 recession Bush/Reps had it heading back up.

 

Disposal = after taxes
Discretionary = after taxes and basic living expenses.

 

The Head of NATO personally stated that it was because of Trump NATO was stronger than ever.
Secretary General thanks President Trump for his commitment to NATO
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg thanked US President Donald Trump for his strong leadership and commitment to the Alliance in a meeting at the White House on Thursday (14 November 2019). Mr. Stoltenberg highlighted rising defence investment across European Allies and Canada, amounting to more than $100 billion extra in recent years, adding that Allies are determined to keep up the momentum.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_170796.htm

The economy was one of the best on record especially for the working class until COVID hit and the governors shut down their economies.

One more thing if you are going to accuse me of lying, against forum rules, then back it up. And Trump handed Biden an economy is the greatest recovery ever witnessed from a recession with two and one on the way vaccines for COVID and everything in place to get us through it. Biden has blown it totally.

 

That is a largely political position.

The reality is Trump freaked Europe out. Trump witheld $400 million of aid to Ukraine to try and blackmail them into helping him in his corrupt scheme to smear Biden. NATO didn't like that. If you look at what he said, he wasn't interested in Article 5 (common defense) and recently said he wouldn't support NATO in a conflict. There's more, but WTF???

On top of everything else, there is a lag to economic inputs. The only part he deserves credit for is the tax cut stimulus, and as the years go by, that looks more and more foolish.

Be less ridiculous.

 

Sorry you get to assign motives pulled out your arse to the SD of NATO. FAIL

And you have refuted nothing about the economic facts I stated.

 

Not just the SD, the leaders of the NATO countries. He kept talking about pulling out of NATO, that's why they increased spending, they were worried Trump would kill NATO. Afraid, actually..

And you haven't responded to my points. Not that you can, there is lag for most economic inputs , the stimulus was a bad idea. Some of the things he did worked out, but that was mostly due to the economy changing. Even a few years earlier, it would have simply been another one of his terrible ideas.

 

US Economy: 1st Est of First Quarter 2022 GDP MINUS 1.43% Time For Reality Check

The key number to look at in each GDP report is Real Final Sales of domestic products. This declined after six quarters of increase.

​

All in all, the economy nose-dived an incredible "8.33 percentage points from the prior quarter." Inventory growth disappeared and consumer demand for goods slid into contraction." No matter who makes the claim, remember, this level of inflation is extraordinarily damaging.

"Annualized household disposable income was $260 lower than in the prior quarter, and the household savings rate was down 1.1pp from the prior quarter."

For the GDP "estimate the BEA assumed an effective annualized deflator of 8.03%. During the same quarter the inflation recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in their CPI-U index was 11.27%. Under estimating inflation results in optimistic growth rates, and if the BEA's nominal data was deflated using CPI-U inflation information the headline growth number would have been -4.79%." The question we all need to ask ourselves and respond accordingly, are we in an economy declining at a real world 1.43% rate, or, at a minus 4.79% rate?

• "Consumer spending for goods was down 0.31% (pp) from the prior quarter.
• "Inventories were down 6.16pp from the prior quarter.
• "The annualized growth in the 'real final sales of domestic product' was down 2.17pp from the prior quarter. This excludes the inventory data."
• "Real per-capita annualized disposable income was down $260 quarter to quarter.
• "The annualized household savings rate was down 1.1pp from the prior quarter. This is quite a reversal. In the 55 quarters since 2Q-2008 the cumulative annualized growth rate for real per-capita disposable income has been 1.28%."

Jimmy Carter gave us "StagFlation", that is, a stagnant economy and run away inflation devaluing our money's ability to purchase goods and services.

Joe Biden and the Democrats could bringing us something much much worse, "ContractiFlation" the yet to be experienced nightmare of a CONTRACTING economy and rampant inflation. Biden/Kamala/Pelosi/Schumer may be the dumbest foursome ever at the helm of the US Government.

If the BLS inflation measure more accurately captures the real economy than the BLS measure, look for downward revisions while inflation is soaring which will certainly include Q1/22 and Q2/22.

 

I am having zero problems dealing with the current conditions you see I had it much worse fifty years ago

 

Well 15 years ago, I would hope we all prepared for times like these as we matured.. Now give a little thought to folks today where you were 15 years ago minus all the bullshit over the last 2 years of scamdemic

 

So... changes in the interest rates doesn't affect supply and demand across real estate and many other industries impacting inflation and thus the value of the dollar in everybody's pocket?

 

I just spent ~$5k on a new driveline for a 43 year old car.
Not sure where you guys are but my disposable income is OK.

 

I'm no economer, but isn't paying off a tiny bit of the national debt something old timey conservatives (obviously not MAGA's) have been screaming about for years??

SNIP
President Joe Biden plans to highlight deficit reduction in remarks Wednesday at the White House, noting that the government will pay down the national debt this quarter for the first time in six years.

Biden will emphasize how strong job gains have increased total incomes and led to additional tax revenues that have improved the government's balance sheet, said a White House official who previewed the speech on condition of anonymity.

Besides the quarterly reduction in the national debt, the Treasury Department estimates that this fiscal year's budget deficit will decline $1.5 trillion. That decrease marks an improvement from initial forecasts and would likely put the annual deficit below $1.3 trillion.
ENDSNIP

https://www.yahoo.com/news/deficit-falling-biden-pivots-fiscal-092455095.html

I dunno, you seem to get more publicity when you try to use federal funds to build useless 3rd century walls between countries....

I can sort of remember when this would be good news for America, instead of the constant bad news courtesy of the GQP....

 

How does real estate affect disposable income? Disposable income is gross income minus federal taxes. Where does real estate come into play here?

 

Trump was on the verge of a recession in 2019... BEFORE COVID, Covid just postponed it

the fed doesn't do this during a great economy... that the economy was great pre-covid is one of the biggest lies the Republicans ever told.


"Fed Ups Its Wall Street Bailout to $690 Billion a Week as Media Snoozes" Oct 2019

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2019...ilout-to-690-billion-a-week-as-media-snoozes/

and

"The Federal Reserve Has Already Pumped $9-Trillion into Wall Street in the Past Six Months, and Now Is Offering Banks Another $1.5-Trillion" March 2020

https://needtoknow.news/2020/03/the...d-now-is-offering-banks-another-1-5-trillion/


all those trillions dumped into the economy under Trump, plus Covid supply issues, that is what caused inflation

 

Why Energy Prices Are Projected to Increase 50% in 2022—After Doubling Last Year.

Biden and the Dems viciously attack the US energy sector as soon as they had the reins of power. Energy inflation raises the prices of everything, including food.

Carter and the Dems gave us StagFlation.
Biden and the Dems are giving us something much much worse, ContractiFlation.

​

 

Yep... Europe feels all warm and fuzzy under this new administration.

As the war in Ukraine rages on, Europe braces itself for stagflation
Afghanistan crisis: How Europe's relationship with Joe Biden turned sour
France cancels DC gala in anger over Biden sub deal: report

 

They like Biden more than Trump.

The sub deal? You ought to be kidding.

 

nothing was held back from Ukraine. Your talking point is false

 

"Former US President Donald Trump, who was impeached for withholding nearly $400 million in military aid from Ukraine.."

From those crazy Commies at Business Insider:
https://www.businessinsider.in/poli...if-he-were-in-office/articleshow/89817109.cms