Turkey isn't getting much use out of its Russian-made missile-defense system, but that's not why ...

Turkey isn't getting much use out of its Russian-made missile-defense system, but that's not why Erdogan is keeping it around
Constantine Atlamazoglou
Sun, July 9, 2023 at 4:27 PM CDT

Six years after Turkey agreed to buy Russia's S-400 air-defense system and four years after the US responded by kicking Ankara out of the F-35 program, Turkey's S-400 still isn't operational, but the Turkish government hasn't backed away from the deal.

Turkey's attachment to the S-400 reflects a dynamic in which the weapon was imbued with major political significance in Turkey, making it costly for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government to relent even as the drawbacks became clear, according to two academics who researched how Erdogan's party, its backers, and others in Turkey portrayed the weapon.

Turkey signed the deal with Russia in 2017 despite opposition from Ankara's NATO allies, who feared the Russian-made weapon system would compromise the F-35 program, in which Ankara was a manufacturing partner, and allow Russia to gain valuable information about the stealth aircraft.

... https://news.yahoo.com/turkey-isnt-getting-much-russian-212700461.html​

I think Turkey would be best served selling or donating that system to NATO or Ukraine. Might be useful to have one to study, and thus beneficial to all NATO members, and it could be of obvious use to Ukraine right now. I wonder if it would have the range to hit the Kerch Strait bridge if modified into a ground-ground system? Hard to imagine a better use for it, apart from shooting down orcish aircraft.

 

I am queasy about Turkish actions. Their votes for both Sweden and Finland, basically give them one-up on NATO. A good ole fashioned: You owe me. Erdogan has ideas about what that piper is going to be, and i imagine we'll hear about it soon. To me, Turkey is not a truly Western ally and their presence in NATO is a trojan. I hope that what they ask for, we can stomach and it won't be of too much consequence.

 

yeah...its a marriage of convenience predicated on the Incirlik / Konya Air Bases...in other words Middle East support/staging/recovery operations...Erdogan's a tw@t but he wont' be there forever

 

Plus Turkyie controls the entrance to the Black Sea. They are a classic example of LBJ's observation about a troublesome politician in his own party - rather have him inside the tent p1ssing out than outside the tent p1ssing in (the man had a mean turn of phrase). It is simply too useful a country to cast aside.

If anything recent events tie Turkyie even closer to NATO & the West. Russia is going to be useless as a friend, Iran is trying to expand its influence on Turkyie's borders and trade with the EU is going to be vital to rebuilding the economy he has trashed. Erdogan can play all the games he wants, but at the end of the day everyone knows he has limited options. Maybe if China was a LOT closer it might be enough of a counter balance to be useful, but it isn't.

Putin has screwed his plans just like he screwed Russia. Erdogan still has some wiggle room, but a LOT less than he did at the start of 2022. He will posture and parade a bit to show how independent he is....and then fall into line when it matters.

 

aye...like most things in Turkey and Erdogan in particular....follow the money

it is...it's an odd place...but in terms of its place in geopolitics....its' pretty crucial...so yeah I guess keep them happy and give Erdogan a bit of rope for him to play his games....and let them have the occasional hissy fit about Öcalan's legacy

 

Turkey or Hungary don’t belong in NATO. However rather have them in NATO then they join with Russia.

 

To me India is bigger problem then Turkey. Modi just had state dinner in WH, three days later he had conference with Putin and Xi. India is buying as much Oil as they can from Russia.

What kind of presser US and EU can put on India without taking risk on inflation?

 

Yeah, I'm hoping it's nothing too major. Sounds like Sweden maybe had to compromise a lot on the Kurdish issue?

 

So I read a Guardian article, and one of Turkey's other asks is to be included into the EU itself. Which the EU resisted in the past due to Turkey's questionable human rights record, etc. Germany's PM has tried to say that the two issues are different from each other, but honestly I would intervene and tell him: This is an acceptable concession to give them.

They're already in NATO, there honestly isn't any difference in bringing them into the EU at this point.

 

Well, it does bring economic concerns. Look at what they've done to their currency lately with their weird policies.

 

Sounds like another orc General bought a one way ticket near Berdyansk...by a Storm Shadow....according to RuZZki Milblogs.....Lt.General Oleg Tsokov was killed yesterday of 58th Army.....waiting for more info.


Also...the sub commander that launched Kalibrs on Western Ukraine last summer was killed by "unknown assasin" while jogging a morning run....Stanislav Rzhitsky was popped by 4 bullets...2 in back...2 in front in some bushes where he does his runs.

 

....also, one of the main historical objections from a German standpoint was the status of the Turkish "gastarbeiter" of which only about 40% or so where/are actually German citizens and how this would impact upon further immigration from Turkey...family members and extended family etc. not sure of what the current thinking in Germany is on this...probably not relevant now? @Caligula any thoughts on this?

 

I remember hearing about the Gastarbeiter issue. Seems Turks have long been somewhat analogous to the Germans as Latin American immigrants have been to us Yanks? Cheap labor, not always legally resident, some xenophobic tensions.

I got to see an interesting show during my college years thanks to one of my German professors, actually. Had a blended family and attempted to address those issues a bit. Türkisch für Anfänger was the title. "Turkish for Beginners."

 

There are tons of studies on immigration from Turkey to Germany in the 60s, 70s, and 80s, huge topic. The term "Gastarbeiter" is no longer used and hasn't been used for decades. As a matter of fact, the back then German government was reluctant to accept Turkish immigrants in the 60s until the US administration pressured them to do so. Fast forward to now, there was a survey in 2017 that said 84 percent of Germans are against Turkey joining the EU (https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/155690/umfrage/meinung-zu-eu-beitritt-der-tuerkei/). In 2014, 69 percent said 'no' (https://www.stern.de/politik/deutsc...nd-gegen-eu-beitritt-der-tuerkei-3163384.html).
Turkey into EU or not has not really been a big topic in German political debates in the last couple of years. Talks between Brussels and Ankara have been on hold since 2017/18 and given the current situation in Turkey (free press, independent jurisdiction, human rights and all that), I don't see any realistic chance for Turkey in the foreseeable future.

Interesting interview with German ex-ambassador to Turkey (in German) on the current situation.
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/tuerkei-erdmann-100.html

 

thanks mate!

 

India isn't that big a problem. They have a long running border dispute & rivallry with China that will ensure they lean MUCH more heavily toward the US & its allies....as long as no one stuffs it up. He was gladhanding Australia's PM recently and seems pretty committed to 'the Quad' (Australia/India/Japan/US). Modi is too smart to nail himself to one position, and India still needs access to Russian weapons technology (for now). He is increasingly looking to the West for weapons, at least until India's industries can produce enough decent ones. When push comes to shove India will side with whoever is anti-China.

Additionally, there is some lingering anti-US and pro-Russian sentiment in India courtesy of Cold War decisions (like Russia backing non-aligned nations& the US backing Pakistan & effectively threatening India when it looked ready to stop the genocide in East Pakistan). Modi gains nothing from sinking the boots into Vlad. Oh, and Modi loves a bargain. He will take all the cheap Russian oil he can buy. Doesn't mean he is going to be any sort of ally for Putin, much less Xi. One has little to offer, the other has nukes pointed at his cities. I wouldn't worry too much about him.

 

Erdogan didn't stay in power this long without a fair ability to read the room. He has changed style more times than Madonna and no doubt he will shift again. For now he needs the west. We can afford to be a bit nice while tying him ever closer to NATO & the EU.

Putin had a shot at driving a wedge into NATO. Instead he has bound it tighter than at any time since the fall of the Berlin wall. Genuis!

 

The difference is huge! Not a single EU country wants Turkey to join the EU and the EU Parliament stopped the negotiations in 2016. The EU has enough problems with some members (Hungary and Poland) and doesn‘t need a border to Syria, Iran and Iraq. The Turks voted for Erdogans anti EU politics which closed the time window in the early 2000s when joining the EU was possible.

 

Ah, I can see that being an issue but honestly I was more fearful of some territorial ambition or some ask that would be hard to swallow. While in some ways, the domestic politics of the ME would cause trouble(believe me, I know that first hand) I feel like it's the lesser of bad options compared to Turkey asking for something of militaristic value.

 

I can't see the EU bringing Turkiye in while Erdogan is in charge, and probably not for a long time after that....if ever. I can see closer relations with the EU, but not membership.

 

Very insightful analyses. Yes, cold-war anti-US vs Pro-Russian mentality is still in India. What is so astonishing to me, India pride themselves as the “ largest democracy in the world” , yet their media is so anti Ukraine and pro-Russian ( at least some of the English speaking media I have seen early in the war)

 

Thanks. India gets a fair bit of attention in Australia for a variety of reasons. There are long standing links, not least through sport - we are great cricket rivals. Our national team just completed a tour of India and then played india to win a major championship. We will return later this year for the Cricket World Cup. We have also had a lot of immigration from there in the past 20 years, so we get reasonable exposure to aspects of what is happening there. About a third of the people in my team at work are Indian born and anyone living in the outer suburbs of major Australian cities (or who plays cricket) will regularly encounter Indians.

Speaking more broadly, everyone in the region is watching the rise & rise of China with fairly intense interest. India is a major regional player, potential ally & potential market, so we try to keep an eye on developments.

Indian media, the english speaking stuff at least, is notoriously bad. We have had some experience of it here in Australia and it is a shocker. Modi will run his own race no matter what media says. Politically he is pretty much untouchable right now. There is no credible opposition. He is pragmatic when it suits him and he knows that China is the main game.

India likes the idea of not putting all its eggs in one basket. That and a bit of history means they won't just ditch Russia, but Modi will also know that Russia is a less reliable partner now than at any time since independence. Russian industry is in no position now to support large amounts of equipment in places like India, and China will end this war with a firm grip on Russia's squishy bits. If a conflict with China went hot India simply couldn't rely on support or supply and they know it.

Modi & India probably aren't going to sign up to any formal, tight alliance structures, especially any where India feels it is going to be treated as anything less than a total equal. However, Modi & India know that if China is the question, the US & its allies are a big part of the answer.

 

QUOTE="AmericanNationalist, post: 1074320069, member: 63456"]Ah, I can see that being an issue but honestly I was more fearful of some territorial ambition or some ask that would be hard to swallow. While in some ways, the domestic politics of the ME would cause trouble(believe me, I know that first hand) I feel like it's the lesser of bad options compared to Turkey asking for something of militaristic value.[/QUOTE]
That is like asking the USA to integrate Colombia to stop the drugs coming to Europe.

 

Seems to me Turkey plays NATO against Russia. They will side with whomever is winning the war. They are just opportunists.