In 2012 the Polls Weighed way too Heavily towards Romney

Many of the polls were very close in 2011. Most showed Obama ahead, but by very slim margins. Obama ended up winning by a landslide 332-206 in electoral votes. He carried Florida, Ohio, PA, WI, MI, and VA. See map below. Sometimes I think the 2024 polls are leaning too far Trump. I say to myself - "Are that many people really voting for this guy after the Jan 6th ordeal?" Evidently !!???!!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/nov/21/2012-election-polling-skewed-for-mitt-romney

2012 also had the added feature of Republican confidence. You didn't have to look very far to hear the word "skewed" in response to polling data. The polls had too many Democrats, or so the claim went. Republicans were also banking on national polls that were kinder to Romney than state surveys.


One item worth noting - no 3rd Party candidates took much vote. Stein and Kennedy could hurt Biden. Notice how Trump is attacking Kennedy. That because of his Anti-Vaxer views. Trump's afraid he could lose some votes. Biden doesn't seem to want to go this route. I hope that strategy doesn't backfire.

 

Romney folded after doing well in the first debate. I don’t understand why, but he did.

BTW, an Electoral vote of 332 to 206 is not “a landslide.” The popular vote was 51% for Obama and 47% for Romney. A landslide is generally measured as at or close to 60 - 40.

 

Polling firms always make adjustments after every election. Polling in the states for the electoral college are always a much smaller sample size, number polled than national polls, hence the larger MOE. National polls usually average an MOE of around plus or minus 3 points. State polls are closer to a MOE of plus or minus 5 points. Most prognosticators when dealing with state polls place any state within the MOE as a tossup. Although some will go with the no tossup predictions. Not many.

Here's RCP electoral prediction map for 2012, 201 Obama, 191 Romney, 146 tossup

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Here’s the popular vote, prediction Obama by 0.7 points, he won by 3.9. Slightly out of the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. Skewed slightly to Romney. Adjustments needed.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2012/obama-vs-romney

2016, the polls were right on, RCP had Clinton winning by 3.2 points, she won by 2.1 points. Well with the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. No adjustments needed.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clinton

Electoral college, Clinton 203, Trump 164, 171 tossup.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

2020 Popular vote, Biden winning by 7.2 points, Biden actually won by 4.5 points. Barely within the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. Since the margin fell within the MOE the polls were considered accurate. But there were plenty of outliers. Which meant those pollsters outside the MOE needed to make adjustments.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden

Electoral college Biden 216, Trump 125, tossup 197

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html

No doubt adjustments were made from the 2020 election by the pollsters. Could those adjustments tilt or skew the polls toward Trump? Very possible. But if one incorporates the MOE, there’re probably close to reality. I see Trump leading in the popular vote by 0.4 points. For me, that’s a basic tie. For me to get excited Trump or Biden would have to lead outside the MOE which would mean for Trump, a 3-point lead or greater. A lead outside of the MOE. It’s very possible Biden could be ahead by 2.6 points at the far end of the other side of the MOE scale. Maybe even more depending if the polling firms over adjusted from 2020.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

RCP’s 2024 RCP Electoral College Map Trump 219, Biden 215, tossup 104

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/toss-up/electoral-college

How much trust to put in the polls. I think quite a bit if one uses and takes into account the MOE. For me I look at Trump leading in only the two candidate choice polls via RCP averages of 0.4 points, that they show me Trump could be ahead by 3.4 points or Biden could be leading by 2.6 points. Somewhere in-between those numbers, within the MOE. Other words, a basic tie.

 

Pre election day polls are but a snapshot.

I might just be a cynic but polling is a for profit business and it's April. The media is a business, they want campaign advert $$$$$. Close polling/races provide a nice stream of that...

Campaigns rely on their internal polling, I'd really watch how Trump acts/behaves as that will reflect what he knows about their internal polls. Joe's a better poker player, so watch what is campaign does.

 

Addressing third party vote. Historical average for third party votes is 1.7%. 2016 was the highest since Ross Perot at 5.7%. In 2020, the third-party vote was back closer to the historical average, 1.9%. 2012 third party vote was right on the historical average of 1.7%. Third party vote is almost always less than 2%. 2016 being the glaring exception. But what 2016 had was two disliked presidential candidates that other elections didn’t have. Clinton 41.8 favorable/54.4 unfavorable, Trump 37.5 favorable/58.5 unfavorable.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president/clintontrumpfavorability.html

This was the first time since 1956 when favorable/unfavorable ratings were first taken that both major party candidates had favorable below 50% and unfavorable above 50%. Every other presidential candidate were seen favorable by more than 50% of all Americans and had an unfavorable of less than 50%. The lone exception was Barry Goldwater who was seen favorable by 43% of all Americans in 1964, but even his unfavorable of 47% was less than 50%. Making Clinton and Trump the first presidential candidates ever to be viewed over 50% unfavorable. Result was a low voter turnout, 54% using VAP and a high third-party vote 5.7%.

2024 seems to be a repeat of 2016, at least when favorable/unfavorable are taken into consideration. 2024 will be the second presidential election since 1956 when favorable/unfavorable were first taken where both major party candidates are seen by less than 50% of all Americans favorably and more than 50% unfavorably. Today, Biden 40.6% favorable/55.2% unfavorable, Trump 42.6% favorable, 53.7% unfavorable.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/favorability/2024candidates.html

I predict a low voter turnout with a high third-party vote come November due to the dislike of both major party candidates, more akin to 2016 than 2020. Compare the two.

2016 54% voter turnout, 137 million, 5.7% third party vote, 7.8 million

2020 62% voter turnout 160 million, 1.9% third party vote, 3 million

 

Regarding adjustments, what about 2022? There was no Red Wave. Maybe the adjustments are flawed.

 

The big tipping point for 2022 was the Dobbs Decision which overturned Roe Vs. Wade.

Even in a deep red state, like Kansas, women have shown that they don't want to be denied to make their own choices about abortion. The extreme anti-abortion movement is a deeply toxic group for Republicans. There is no winning them. If you give them what they want, the rest of the electorate votes Democrat. If you explain to them that they will lose everything if they take the extreme view, they tell you that they are staying home.

In other words conservatives have a choice. They can take the extreme anti-abortion position, lose elections and give the power to the Democrats. The Democrats will make abortion, free easy and much more common. The extreme Democrats will even support infanticide. Or they can leave the issue to the states and have a hope of winning future elections. It's just that simple.

The abortion issue is one of the factors that has disappointed my wife and I with Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis.

 

Or.. could it be that Romney would have won if only legal votes by living actual voters had been counted????????????????????

By 2012 it was pretty obvious that Obama hated America.......
... hated American history.......

...... and hated caucasian Americans.......

but I have to admit that he was one of Americas most talented public speakers......

and he did save us from HILLARY in 2008......



What positive things can you say about President Obama?

Here is one aspect of parapsychology that I believe President OBAMA does not want to know about.......

What is that white guy doin in my head? (Past life regression under hypnosis).

All of this brings us to the relevance of the Dr. Ian Stevenson research.....



IF IT IS TRUE THAT ROMNEY WOULD HAVE LEGALLY WON IN 2012.... DOES ROMNEY STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REDEEM HIMSELF FROM THE HORRIBLE THINGS THAT HE HAS DONE SINCE 2016??????????



The White Horse President prophecy and saving the USA constitution and dollar.

 

I’d say not, no red wave was predicted in the polls. Just hot breath talk coming from Republicans. Look at the generic congressional poll - https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

The polls predicted the republicans would win the national congressional vote by 2.5 points. The GOP won by 2.8 points. The polls were right on, they were about as close to perfection as they’re ever going to get. To predict a wave election, one party or another would have to be leading in the generic congressional ballot by 7 or 8 points or more. Each full point lead translates to a possible gain of 5 seats. So, a 2.5 point lead indicates a GOP gain of 10-12 seats in the house. They gained 9.

Even going district by district, the polls were showing republicans favored in 216 seats, democrats in 199 with 20 districts rated as pure tossups. https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/house-race-ratings

A wave election is generally defined as one party regaining control of the house by gaining 30 or more seats. The polls indicating or predicting a net gain of 10-12 seats for the republicans is a far cry from the 30 or more seats needed to qualify for predicting a wave election.

 

I don't think too many thought the Dems would control the Senate.

 

The Republicans had 21 seats up for reelection vs. 14 for the democrats. A decided democrat beginning advantage as they had far less seats to defend. Considering the senate was a 50-50 tie prior to the midterm, a net gain of just one gave the democrats control without the VP casting the deciding vote. Trump chosen candidates in competitive states was the democrat’s secret weapon. Masters AZ, Walker GA, Laxalt NV, Oz PA, Bolduc NH, Tshibaka AK all lost. All Trump chosen, all losers. Also, they were all challengers to an incumbent democrat. Independents found Trump chosen candidates too extreme or downright dumb. Pennsylvania was the lone Democratic gain.


Here's the prediction which included 4 tossups. Arizona, Nevada, Georgia all held by democrats with Pennsylvania which was held by a republican. Thanks to Trump and his chosen candidates, Masters, Laxalt and Walker the democrats retained all 3 of their tossup seats which the Republicans lost their only tossup seat with Oz as their candidate.


https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/cook-political-2022-senate

Even in many house elections where Trump chose the candidates, Trump ended up being the democrats biggest asset for the 2022 midterms.

 

Good summary. Very thorough. I can't really add anything.

 

The next question is what has happened from the midterms to today where Trump is a very viable challenger to Biden? If this rematch was held in November 2022, Biden probably would have beaten Trump by 10 points or more, a landslide win. But today, we have a basic tie between the two.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

Biden’s overall job approval was only slightly better in November 2022, 2 points higher than it is today. 42% vs. 40%. How Americans viewed Trump was the same in November 2022 as it is today, 42% favorable, 54% unfavorable. The midterms are a more local election than national. Trump didn’t have all his legal problems in 2022 that he has today. Could it be that the dislike of Trump and his chosen candidates in the midterms was much more pronounced, had more of an impact back then since Biden wasn’t on the ballot? The emphasis was on the candidates for the house and senate, mostly on Trump chosen candidates, not on Biden.

But now, 2024 Biden has become the main factor. Usually when a sitting president runs for reelection, that election is a referendum on the sitting president, not the challenger. I use the word usually as this time around it’s a sitting president vs. a former president. It’s a referendum on both, but perhaps a bit more on Biden since he’s is the president today, not Trump. Biden’s job approval or lack thereof comes into play whereas in 2022 it was a non-factor. The numbers show a very stark difference between 2020 and 2024, but not between 2022 and 2024. I think the key lies with the ticket splitters of 2020. That they hold the answer. Trying to keep this short, I’ll wait until I hear your thoughts.

 

you missed the most important thing about Obama. He was born in Kenya.

 

The extreme anti-abortion group, the 3 times a week church going born-again Christian will not change their mind about abortion because it is not about winning election or freedom or tax cut. It is about follow the teaching of Jesus Christ. I have few in my own family who are in this category. To them DEMS/REP doesn’t matter, to them following the Biblical teaching is the only things matters. Tell you the truth, if it was not pro-life position in GOP, they would be Democrat. For them taking care the poor, taking care the widow , taking care the sick , taking care the immigrant/undocumented, these liberal policies align with Biblical teaching then conservative view of capitalism.

 

OK......

thank you for this interesting comment.......

but.... what if you were a born again Christian who loved church and attended three times per week.......

what if something strange had happened to you that you could not explain away..... other than that Jesus must have serious POWER??????

.....would you think that I was an idiot for believing that Pro-Life Christians should tend to support an Unconditional but Taxable Basic Minimum Income financed much as the method that President Lincoln used to win the Civil War?????


Your theology and a Basic Minimum Income?

IT may be relevant to know that I am connecting this possibility with something even bigger.....

for Canadians and for Americans......

My plan to pay off the deficit at the rate of twenty billion dollars per month?

....

 

Yep, and George Soros hired all the voting officials.

 

You are absolutely CORRECT!!!!!!!!!!

YES.... if it were not for the fact that BigOil..... owns BigMedia..... the fact that they guy who has been CHOSEN by BigOil and BigMedia and BigPharma......

... could never have hidden that detail........

... if he had not been CHOSEN...... to be the guy who sets in motions what is happening now........

THE PASSOVER SAGA CONTINUES, 2024.......
.....
.....
Endeavor.... did you notice that Mr. Al Gore's professor......

.... who was influenced by a group of people who wanted to link the price and supply of oil with the fiat currencies......

... of all nations.......


.... have SUCCESSFULLY DONE EXACTLY THAT WITH THE CARBON TAX?????????!!!!!!!

YES.... The Hairball Al Gore Carbon Tax Theory......

links the fiat currencies of all nations with the PRICE X SUPPLY OF OIL AND.......

SOON THOSE MULTI BILLIONAIRES WHO HAVE BEEN ANNOYED BY MERE BLUE COLLAR MILLIONAIRES DRIVING THE SAME CARS AS THEY DRIVE......

.. WILL HAVE AN ECONOMIC SAVIOR WHO WILL HUMBLE THOSE BLUE COLLAR MILLIONAIRES BY PREVENTING THEM FROM BEING ABLE TO BUY GAS OR DIESEL FOR THOSE SAME CARS THAT BILLIONAIRES DRIVE!!!!!!!!!

ROBERT THOMAS MALTHUS....
AND THE ELITE OF EUROPE WHO HE SUPPORTED BY HIS THEORIES.......

SEEMS TO BE ALIVE AND WELL AND WORKING HARD AT TWEAKING THE MODERN WORLD ECONOMY!!!!!!????


Note... you can hear about Mr. Al Gore's professor in the documentary.......


http://www.politicalforum.com/index...l-conquered-the-world.581777/#post-1072247318

Why Big Oil conquered the world

 

Aha .. now Obama was for Bigoil , big Pharma

When Obama was POTUS, conservative attacked him as socialist and said Obama wants to destroy American economy.

Now Obama was for big business.

This is good . keep posting. Very entertaining.

 

Thank you.......

what is actually more important perhaps was that BigOil and BigPharma and BigMedia were for Obama.........

they felt that he was just what they needed at that time.......

.....

and he is apparently still being used behind Puppet Biden!




Do you remember the lecture by Eisenhower...... "Military Industrial Complex?"

http://www.politicalforum.com/index...made-in-america.552308/page-7#post-1074767093

 

Why don’t you educate us how Obama’s policy helped Big Oil.

Give us 3 of Obama’s policy which helped big oil.

 

2024 is not 2012 and Donald Trump is not Mitt Romney.

 

Romney very clearly didn't want to win. Same as all the "professionally" Republican GOPe hacks like him. As long as he gets his money, he is happy. He doesn't actually stand for anything and has no problem selling his soul (and selling out this country and its citizens) for a pretty penny.

 

Unless "poker player" means 'crapping his pants', .........

 

The "professionally" Republican wanted to lose in 2022, just like they want to lose in 2024. They have no problem with losing so long as they continue to get paid for it.