Whats The Likelihood That Democrats Could Control Washington in 2012? By David Rothschild | The Signal | 2 hrs 11 mins ago Excerpts: As of December 31, 2011 the likelihood of the Democrats retaining the Presidency is 53.7 percent, retaining the Senate is 20.7 percent, and taking the House is 32.7 percent. This is compiled from Betfair, Intrade, and Iowa Electronic Market prediction market data. The chart shows how these three main predictions have shifted during the course of the year. Obama had a small spike when Osama Bin Laden was captured, but otherwise he's been on a slow decline for most of the summer and early fall, with a slow resurgence in the late fall and early winter. The Senate has been relatively steady with small spikes corresponding to shifts in specific seats, including retirements and announcements of new candidates. The House has shown the most flux with a steep decline that mirrored the President's, but continued. Yet, it has taken a sharp turn towards the Democrats in recent weeks: Obama has been polling well against both the generic Republican and the specific Republicans (with Mitt Romney being the most likely opponent, followed by Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum). The Real Clear Politics aggregated polling trend has him up 1.6 percentage points on Romney and down 0.5 percentage points on the "generic Republican." Other data, including approval numbers and economic indicators, have been moving in his direction, but are still far from ensuring his reelection. Key indicators, however, are still a few months away - they'll come at the end of the first and second quarter of the election year. What does that 53.7 percent mean for Obama? Not too much at this moment. With the election 10 months away, markets are going to be conservative. Still, markets are predicting that numbers will continue to move in his favor. In the House, things have been looking up for the Democrats lately, yet the Republicans are still likely to retain control. The census-induced redistricting of House seats likely helps the Republicans in the House. Yet, the recent Democratic creep forward is likely a result of record low Congressional approval numbers. It also coincides Republican squabbling over the payroll tax issue, which stemmed from lack of cohesion in the Republican-controlled House. The Wall Street Journal's editorial board called this a fiasco that could help Obama get reelected, but the reverberations for this type of event may be felt in House elections as well. Follow along on PredictWise for the real-time likelihood of the Presidency and the Senate and House. See full article and chart: http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/likelihood-democrats-could-control-washington-2012-164705443.html Sources: Betfair, Intrade, and Iowa Electronic Market David Rothschild is an economist at Yahoo! Research. He has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. .. With President Obama just starting his campaign, it promises to be a rousing, rowdy time for the Democrats in winning the 2012 elections. Obama has no real worthy opponents of note, so the presidents re-election is almost set in stone no matter who wins the republican/T-bagger nomination. The debates will be the interesting thing to watch in the upcoming campaign because President Obama is such a fantastic debater, and it will be interesting to see him in action once again. One republican candidate if he becomes the nominee would be a forceful opponent is Ron Paul, or even Jon Huntsman. Both are strong politicians who can cause President Obama some heat, but it is unlikely that either one will be the nominee. The republican/T-bagger party has once again apparently chosen the wealthy Washington insider that would properly represent the huge corporations of America, Big Oil, Nascar, and the Pentagon and in that precise order. I have said all thru 2010 and 2011, that this is the time for a relevant third party to make itself known, and if Ron Paul doesnt get the nomination, he should run as an Independent and could win really big. It would also bring the Independent Party into Americas sharp focus really quickly.
The Democrats have basically no chance of controlling either house of congress after the 2012 elections. They have about an even chance of retaining the White House. Obama's is nothing more than a novelty president. And the novelty has faded.
hopefully not a chance in hell, a full liberal government would be an abomination to this country. id better hide my money too, because liberals will be frothing at the mouth to tax 95% of my money to support their lowly voters.
Didn't read the post just the title. I would be a little concerned for all parties, and not just 2012. Congress is at 6%! Hot water! President is rotting in the polls, no real and promising republican contenders, tea party has pissed off too many people, Occupy movement has lost sight of its original goals. Washington could be in for a complete overhaul, there are so many people who are pissed and with good reason at how our nation is being run, if I were a politician, I'd start making some serious changes now.
Could be possible to have intelligent people there for a change. But unlikey due to the incompetince of many voters. Electoral college is majority right wing, and they will elect their poster boy for the Medical insurance coproration MItt. He also caters to the defence contracts so youknow Iran is the next target. Once they deomize Iran to no end, they will try to make all the simple Americans fear Iran. Just that simple. True, just go ask the little Dick Cheney who he is going to vote for.
What will it matter if they do? They didn't even do anything worthwhile with it when they controlled Washington in 2008. Everyone loses if they gain full control again. The entire party should just step down. The more they control, the more the people suffer.
It's a bad year for all incumbents but the President, who is probably the most popular figure in Washington today. He's consistantly better than anyone in Congress, for example. It's going to be a blood bath. I think it's a foregone conclusion that the Democrats will gain seats in the House, though perhaps not a majority. Democrats in the Senate up for election are going to have a rough path ahead. On the other hand, the public isn't thrilled with Republicans right now either. There's a non-trivial chance that the Democrats will see gains on all fronts in 2012, though they are more likely to retain the presidency, gain seats in the House, and lose a majority in the Senate. That, by the way, will be bad news for Republicans in 2014, especially if the Democrats can't gain a majority in the House.
Nice to see a very interesting post for a change. It's nice to see my prejudices confirmed, as that was roughly my reading of the situation. I would note that the Republican choice of Presidential Candidate will make a huge difference to President Obama's chances of re-election so the 50-50 is merely a starting point.
