“Red Wave” Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages in Trump’s Favor?

This from an X @tommysantos14 post:

1. Flood social media with biased polls paid for by the GOP
2. Use those polls to claim Trump is winning
3. Label Trump's opponent as incompetent and downright stupid
4. Declare victory weeks before the actual election, asserting that a
Trump win is 'inevitable'.
5. Begin lying about voter fraud and cheating a couple of weeks before
the election during early voting (this is where we are at now)
6. Ramp up voter fraud allegations on election morning without any proof
7. Lose the election, then claim it was rigged
8. Launch empty legal challenges, and maybe even attack America if all else fails, to stop certification.
9. Spend the next 4 years crying about losing.

https://x.com/tommysantos14/status/1852010182123078060/photo/1

Sound familiar?
LOL, well, Trump, we're onto you this time.

GOP have been paying some new pollsters we've never heard of to provide fake positive poll results to Trump, who, after he loses, will claim the election was stolen

Yadda yadda yadda, and folks, this is really getting old.

Well, isn't this just the latest in a string of laughable attempts to rewrite reality? The GOP, ever industrious in their pursuit of an alternate universe, seems to be hiring a new breed of pollsters, names you’ve never heard of, and there's a good reason for that. These aren’t reputable pollsters known for rigorous sampling methods or transparent methodologies. No, these are handpicked number-fluffers, designed to manufacture a 'surge' in Trump’s popularity that no one, except maybe Trump himself, can genuinely believe.

This little tactic -- poll manipulation through no-name “pollsters” -- is as transparent as it is sinister. It’s all about giving Trump what he needs for his inevitable post-election tantrum. When reality catches up, and the voting public renders its judgment, he’ll have these made-up polls to wave around like some divine prophecy of his 'stolen' landslide victory. So expect the line: 'I was winning in every poll -- right up until the rigged election!'

You might remember Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and a few others who dance to the same tune. They pop up with suspiciously rosy numbers for Trump, and they keep pushing that line because the plan isn’t to predict -- it's to gaslight. This is a full-scale production designed to dupe anyone still on the hook, to pull in the skeptics, and to build a foundation for a brand-new 'stolen election' narrative. It’s not polling, folks; it’s propaganda. And we’ve seen it before, and we’ll see it again, until we call it for what it is.

Bullshit.

“Red Wave” Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages in Trump’s Favor?

https://newrepublic.com/article/187425/gop-polls-rigging-averages-trump

Last month, a GOP-friendly polling firm presented itself, and its data, in a highly unusual way. Rather than maintain a nominally neutral public-facing profile, this pollster acted more like a cavalry brigade for Donald Trump’s campaign. And the firm did so explicitly, openly, and proudly.

It all went down in mid-September, at a time when the FiveThirtyEight polling averages showed the slightest of leads for Kamala Harris in North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump. Her edge was short-lived: The averages moved back to favoring Trump. And Quantus Insights, a GOP-friendly polling firm, took credit for this development. When a MAGA influencer celebrated the pro-Trump shift on X (formerly Twitter), Quantus’s account responded: “You’re welcome.”

The implication was clear. A Quantus poll had not only pushed the averages back to Trump; this was nakedly the whole point of releasing the poll in the first place.

To proponents of what might be called the “Red Wave Theory” of polling, this was a blatant example of a phenomenon that they see as widespread: A flood of GOP-aligned polls has been released for the precise purpose of influencing the polling averages, and thus the election forecasts, in Trump’s favor. In the view of these critics, the Quantus example (the firm subsequently denied any such intent) only made all this more overt: Dozens of such polls have been released since then, and they are in no small part responsible for tipping the averages—and the forecasts—toward Trump.

Coming at a time when right-wing disinformation is soaring—and Trump’s most feverish ally, Elon Musk, is converting X into a bottomless sewer pit of MAGA-pilled electoral propaganda—these critics see all this as a hyper-emboldened version of what happened in 2022, when GOP polls flooded the polling averages and arguably helped make GOP Senate candidates appear stronger than they were, leading to much-vaunted predictions of a “red wave.” Most prominently, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg and data analyst Tom Bonier, who were skeptical of such predictions in 2022 and ultimately proved correct, are now warning that all this is happening again.

Yeah,. GOP/Trump, we got your number. We're on to your little scheme.

No one is saying the race isn't close, but among the 'A+' rated pollsters, (Monmouth University Polling Institute, Selzer & Co., Siena College/The New York Times Upshot, and ABC News/The Washington Post) available data suggest that Harris holds a lead in certain national and swing state polls. Women are voting in greater numbers than men, and are breaking for Harris, same for undecided voters and Gen Z, young voters who've never voted before, as I understand it. It will be close, but my feeling is that Harris is going to win.

Keith Olbermann on his podcast, given Trump's behavior of late, he was wondering if he intentionally wanted to lose, just to do the above playbook. Sounds crazy, but one never knows about a guy like Trump.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...s-with-big-early-vote-lead-despite-gop-gains/

 

Comfort news is a real thing, when it comes to politics, people tend to gravitate to news sources which provides them with the information that they find the most comforting rather than the sources that are the most informative. With this in mind, certain news sources have their own target audience, and will report their stories accordingly. This isn’t something that is exclusively right or left wing, people of all politically affiliated groups take part in this behavior

As for the media sources perspective, it’s really more of a marketing strategy than a political strategy. That is to say, polls which show a certain candidate being ahead in the polls doesn’t necessarily give that candidate an advantage when it comes time to vote

At the end of the day, all polls are flawed, they take quite a bit of time to put together, and can easily miss recent shifts in public opinion. Also, they can only go so far at predicting which group will have the best turnout. An election which polls this close can go either way, but my personal opinion is I am expecting Trump to win this election

 

You mean polls can be manipulated? Damn, this is truly breaking news.

 

Yes!

 

When in trouble when in doubt run in circles scream aund shout.

 

Is this what the Leftists are going to be claiming if Trump wins?

 

I think it's likely the polls are wrong, but they have mostly been wrong for years; or at least the public polls. The internal polls may tell a different story but we won't hear much from them until after the election.

 

I'm not sure "manipulated" is the right word. Election polls are "adjusted" due to many factors. Mostly historical. Like the turnout in previous elections. Basically, they account for what they got wrong the last time.

However, it's probably true that some agencies manipulate polls. Rasmussen is the typical example of manipulated polls. Less so when coming close to election day. It's as if, knowing that reality will soon fact-check them made them more "honest".

But, all in all, I think it's better for democrats when they appear close or behind in the polls. When democrats feel ahead, they become complacent and don't turn out to vote.

 

In the words of some particularly vile dems. Just win baby!

And we DID!

 

So this didn't age well. This appears to be more liberal sources lying to their supporters by claiming their opponents are doing precisely what they are doing themselves.

 

TLDR the rest.

Final Polls

Results to date

Trump 51
Kackles 47

Trump overperformed his polls by +2
Kackles underperformed by -2

Atlas and Fox got the closest to Trump's actual results

TIPP, Rasmussen, WSJ, CNBC got the closest to Kackle's result

WSJ and Rasmussen got the closest to the spread.

NBR/PBS/Marist sucked the hardest.



Overall you were way off base. You regularly criticize the sources of others and hold yours up as superior. Will you be reconsidering your sources and statements of being more superiorly informed?

 

Well, that claim didn't age well.

 

The OP is just as whiney as Trump and his whiney followers who claimed "stolen election" in 2020. Excuses are for losers.

 

It looks more like none of the pollsters didn't want to take the heat for predicting a Trump victory, for obvious reasons.

 

She lost because Americans didn't buy what she was selling; four years of Dem leadership (aka totalitarianism lite) was enough.

 

“Red Wave” Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages in Trump’s Favor?

You tell me, champ:

 

Dems lost. Woke looneytoon liberalism is done. They just don't realize it yet.