Abkhazia is a territory, or small nation-state, which is claimed by the country of Georgia but conflictingly recognized as an independent state by Russia. Abkhazia is effectively a Russian puppet state. ( This is a common Russian tactic, to support independence and separatism for small breakaway states, to be able to weaken surrounding countries, with those smaller breakaway states aligning with and becoming reliant on Russia. This gives Russia a geopolitical advantage. And Russia claims what it is doing is not so different from what NATO did in Yugoslavia in 1999 ) Abkhazi does have some complicated history, and the Russians are drawing on that history to try to have an excuse to keep Abkhazia as a separate territory from Georgia, so the territory can be kept closer in the Russian sphere of influence. This is a strategy Russia has used with several other small territories that belonged to other neighboring countries. Only about half of the population in the Abkhazia territory are actually ethnically Abkhazian (though it might be less than that). However, there are twice as many ethnic Abkhazians currently living in other countries (mainly Turkey) than there are in Abkhazia, a result of the Russians expelling them in first half of the 1800s. These Abkhazians living in Turkey and other countries are mostly muslim. In 1989 a census showed that only 17 percent of the population of Abkhazia were ethnically Abkhaz. The Abkhazian territory currently has roughly around 200,000 people, but had more than half a million before the 1992 war. Between 20 to 40% of the ethnic Abkhaz in Abkhazia are Muslim (Sunni). 60 to 75% of the total population in Abkhazia are Christian (mostly Eastern Orthodox). A group of Abkhazians seem to be siding with Russia in order to get their own nation. If I can use an analogy, it is a bit like how Scotland wanted to join the European Union, because even though it would involve giving up a degree of their independence, they calculated that by joining the greater European Union, they would be gaining a greater degree of independence from England, being in the union of the United Kingdom. In this case, those Abkhazians want to break away from Georgia. What the actual percentage of the population in Abkhazia that is Abkhazian is a controversial and politically sensitive question. It could be as low as 26 percent, or as high as 51 percent. Russia and these Abkhazian nationalists would like the world to think there is more. Some estimates are around 35 or 40 percent. There are also large numbers of other ethnic groups in Abkhazia. Georgians make up almost 18% of the population, and Russians over 7%. Armenians make up a little more than 17%. Among Armenians, 49% support Abkhazian independence, and 51% prefer to remain part of Georgia. 79% of ethnic Abkhazians in Abkhazia would support independence. source here: https://ibs.colorado.edu/johno/pub/InsideAbkhazia.pdf Around 80% of Abkhazians hold Russian passports. Part of the reason for that high number is Russia pays pensions to older people as part of the legacy of the former Soviet Union. Of course these Abkhazian nationalists probably would prefer not to be a colony of Russia, if it were that simple of a question. But many of them seem more than willing to become a Russian colony if it means a greater degree of independence for their new nation, and being able to break away from the rule of Georgia. Another factor is that Russia is wealthier than Georgia, so they'd prefer to be economically integrated with Russia. The per capita GDP of Russia is more than twice as high as Georgia, although to be fair, the per capita GDP in the Russian oblasts in the region close to Georgia seems comparable to that in Georgia, so realistically it is debatable whether this territory would get any wealthier through closer integration with Russia. The Russians do seem to be using some economic bribes to get Abkhazia to break away.
So....many...words. So...many....statistics. But this is not really all that complicated. You have two votes in each city or town district. Round one you ask the people if they want: 1) to break away from Georgia or 2) stay with Georgia or 3) don't care either way. You ignore the votes for the third option. Each district that voted to break away by majority now has a grace period of a year where they are essentially independent, and each evaluates whether they want to join the other districts into a larger group, stay independent, or rejoin Georgia. Those that voted to stay go to round two, where they look around at the situation and decide if they will stay or also break away. This vote is say, within a month. After one year, if any that broke away have still not decided what to do, they rejoin, since they obviously cannot handle their own politics. From there, the independent groups can decide to stay independent or join Russia, on their own. Basically, ethnicity, religion, ancient claims, far away politicians, and large borders do not matter. What matters is what the people actually living there in each city or town district that actually care want.
It's more complicated than that. Because there are questions of who you ask. What people in what exact area. And even if both sides can agree on an exact area, there may be disagreement about which people's votes should be counted. Some Abkhaz nationalists may argue that other ethnicities should not be counted because those groups were not native to the area. (Since Abkhazia was historically occupied by foreign powers, Abkhazians did not have a say over this) The other side might argue that ethnic Russians should not be counted because many of them were settlers from Russia, and maybe the Russian government even incentivized them to move there as part of its effort to annex the territory (under the guise of Abkhaz independence). And even if there is an undisputed majority, that still does not necessarily justify the decision to break away. These same sort of complexities shape the Ukraine-Russia conflict. (Ukraine's breakaway territories voted to become part of Russia, and Ukraine did not accept that. But Ukrainians would argue Russia settled all those Russians into the territory during Soviet times, to cement its territorial control)
I appreciate all that. But we have to get to a sane point on these issues. Legally registered residents of voting age should of course get a vote regardless of ethnicity or birth. A further requirement of some years of residence could be included. Lines drawn that split relatively homogenous communities are obviously BS. If the majority votes for it then of course it does! But if they are denied a (fair) vote then that indicates the nation in control knows and fears they will break away, and so if another nation interferes I am good with that. What we got in Donbas was a set of rubbish choices on the ballots that intentionally split the pro-breakaway vote to make it look like more people wanted to stay with Ukraine. It was rigged garbage. Then for 8 years they held the Ukraine forces off....8 long years! That was not for "maybe, sorta a few people" wanted out.
They will get a vote. Either in Russia or in an independent Abkhazia. They just wouldn't get a vote over the decision for independence. As an analogy... Do you think the United States would accept it if enough immigrants from Latin America moved to Texas or California and then wanted to break those territories away from the United States and become part of Mexico? Or Georgians, if they keep Abkhazia from breaking away, would argue that those in Abkhazia do have the right to vote, in Georgia. Making this more complicated, that could be difficult to verify, and might be seen as inadequate. Since it's suspected both Georgia and Russia have been moving people into the territory in previous years, in an attempt to better secure their hold.
This isn't a fair question. I don't care if the U.S. would accept it. I have to say they must accept it or they are morally bankrupt. What you are describing is exactly how the U.S. gained Texas. But I guarantee the U.S. will not accept it, just like they won't let native reservations declare independence. I don't understand. Its not about what Georgians think or want. Its about what Abkhazians think or want, or even the people in cities and counties in Abkhazia. Nobody gets to speak for you, and declare you are satisfied even if you say otherwise. Of course not.
Georgians would vehemently disagree. Do you realize how unrealistic it would be if every state, county, or city in your country were able to hold a referendum to be able to break away as a separate country? As I said, there would also be disagreement about who constitutes true "Abkhazians". If you simply made it any person who lived there, then Russia and Georgia would be sending people in to settle and tip the balance. And ethnic Abkhazians would claim it's not fair because they were under foreign occupation and foreign groups settled there without Abkhazians at the time being able to have any say in the matter. To make matters more complicated, if it were announced that an official referendum was going to be held, many ethnic Abkhazians from Turkey would probably pour into the territory to guarantee that their "home nation" would have independence and that they would have an "ethnic homeland nation". Even if they were not permanently planning to stay there. Georgians regard Abkhazia as an integral part of the country of Georgia, and the Abkhazian population has greatly fluctuated over time. (the population in the territory in 2003 was 43% lower than it had been in 1990 )
Then they are A-holes. I got not time for A-holes. Oh, I absolutely know where you are coming from. You are used to this rather ordered world we have today and think its normal and natural and the only way to exist. Well, none of that is historically the way things were. And it mostly only changed for brutal warlords cracking heads for their own power and amusement. We have to move beyond that so we can have actual freedom again. Liechtenstein is just fine. Granted. But we need to all move beyond that sort of talk too. As a long time legal resident of Japan, if my prefecture decided to break away, I should get a vote, as I will wind up going with the new nation and I pay tax. I am okay not having a vote for politicians, but when it comes to my life being moved to a complete other nation, I have too much at stake and am very much invested.
