As Climate Worsens, a Cascade of Tipping Points Looms

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by skepticalmike, Dec 15, 2019.

  1. dgrichards

    dgrichards Well-Known Member

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    You gotta work a lot harder than that!
     
  2. dgrichards

    dgrichards Well-Known Member

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    You haven't been egregiously stupid about it. Plus, you have posted some thoughtful stuff to others.
     
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  3. dgrichards

    dgrichards Well-Known Member

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    If you have been keeping track you will have seen that I did, indeed, follow that link. I fail to see how a list of over 37,400 species facing near certain extinction could be a proof against mass extinction. Particularly so since it makes no mention of species known to be extinct through the holocene and anthropocene eras. Perhaps you can show me how that works? Most particularly since the current rate of extinctions is between 100 and 1000 times the rate of background or naturally occurring extinctions. But you are a thoughtful guy, at least your posts to others would seem to indicate that. You have got to be as aware of these numbers as I am. Assuming that to be true, and I hope I am not giving unearned credit here, why are you bugging me with this?
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2021
  4. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Heh heh.

    What is apparent is that the trend of extinctions is declining rather than increasing, just the opposite of what the new report claims. Also, according to the IPBES report, we can expect 25,000 to 30,000 extinctions per year, yet the average over the last 40 years is about 2 species annually. That means the rate would have to multiply by 12,500 to 15,000 to reach the dizzying heights predicted. Nothing on the horizon is likely to achieve even a small fraction of that.



    [​IMG]


    Mass extinction lie exposed: life is thriving - Inconvenient Facts
    https://inconvenientfacts.xyz › blog › mass-extinction-li...


    May 13, 2019|climate change, Extinction, Global Warming. Gregory Wrightstone 5/13/19. One million species will become ... in Figure 2 by decade of extinction. This chart reveals quite a different story than that advanced by the new report.
     
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  5. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    Those 2 graphs represent radiosonde data, not satellite data.

    HadAT: globally gridded radiosonde temperature anomalies from 1958 to 2012

    I found radiosonde data from a recent paper showing tropical, upper troposphere warming. I will post the graph.




     
  6. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    The upper tropospheric warming from radiosonde data is less than that from
    satellite data but it is significant, albeit less than models project.

    Any type of global warming should produce amplified warming in the upper troposphere relative to the surface. If we don't find this amplified warming
    from observations then that tells us that our observations aren't accurate.
    .

    https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/19/jcliD190998.xml

    Observed Changes in Troposphere and Stratosphere 1979 -2019
    August,21, 2020

    c. Vertically resolved trends
    Vertically resolved trends from radiosonde data in Fig. 8 are presented for the period 1979–2018 together with trends from layer-average temperatures from MSU-AMSU and merged SSU records. This provides an overview of upper-air trends from the lower troposphere to the stratopause for near-global averages (70°S–70°N) (Fig. 8a) and for the tropics (20°S–20°N) (Fig. 8b). Overall, the different records show remarkably good agreement. Surface temperature trends are also indicated and are similar to TLT trends.


    [​IMG]


    Upper-air temperature trends 1979–2018 from different observations for (a) near-global averages (70°S–70°N) and for (b) the tropics (20°S–20°N). Layer-average temperature trends are shown for MSU-AMSU (RSS, STAR, UAH) and for merged SSU records. Vertically resolved trends are shown for radiosonde records (RICH, RAOBCORE). Surface temperature trends from HadCRUT4 are also indicated. Trends were computed with multiple linear regression. Uncertainty of trends is indicated at the 95% confidence level.


    Global-mean temperature trends from the homogenized, gridded RICH and RAOBCORE radiosonde records are plotted at standard pressure levels and show warming of near 0.2 K decade−1 in the lower and midtroposphere (from 0.15 ± 0.03 K to 0.19 ± 0.03 K decade−1 at 5–9 km). Close agreement of radiosondes with layer averages of MSU-AMSU is found for TLT and TMTcorr, except in the case of UAH satellite data (which has less warming than the RSS and STAR MSU-AMSU products).

    Tropical average trends (Fig. 8b) show a similar structure to the near-global mean (70°S–70°N). As expected, the trend uncertainties are slightly larger because tropical variability is larger than for near-global averages. Tropospheric warming rates are about 0.15 K decade−1 (from 0.12 ± 0.04 to 0.18 ± 0.03 K decade−1) from radiosondes and correspond well with MSU-AMSU TLT and TMTcorr trends. In addition, the vertical amplification obtained by comparing the RSS and STAR TMTcorr trends with the surface trends is seen in the tropics (Fig. 8b), which is consistent with results from earlier studies by Fu et al. (2004) and Po-Chedley et al. (2015). UAH TMTcorr trends do not yield amplification of tropical surface warming. The UAH upper-troposphere channel TTScorr shows smaller trends but the STAR TTScorr agrees well with radiosondes, showing impact on trends from different bias correction algorithms in satellite merging

    Part of Abstract: Consistent results are found between the satellite-based layer-average temperatures and vertically resolved radiosonde records. The overall latitude–altitude trend patterns are consistent between RO and radiosonde records. Significant warming of the troposphere is evident in the RO measurements available after 2001, with trends of 0.25–0.35 K per decade. Amplified warming in the tropical upper-troposphere compared to surface trends for 2002–18 is found based on RO and radiosonde records, in approximate agreement with moist adiabatic lapse rate theory. The consistency of trend results from the latest upper-air datasets will help to improve understanding of climate changes and their drivers.


    Radiosonde Observations (part of): All radiosonde datasets have limited coverage in the tropics. Different countries use different instrument types, and instrumentation has changed over time (e.g., Thorne et al. 2011). A further problem is that radiosondes are affected by radiation biases during daytime measurements (Sherwood et al. 2005; Ladstädter et al. 2015). To reduce data discontinuities and residual cooling biases in radiosonde-derived CDRs, a number of different adjustment techniques have been developed.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2021
  7. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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  8. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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  9. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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