Climate Frauds Debunked; 112° in the Desert? (the Horror) and The Vanishing Islands That Didn't

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by JBG, Jul 1, 2024.

  1. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    34,191
    Likes Received:
    22,363
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Tsk tsk. I'll go with the IBM Einstein Fellow at the Institute for Advanced Study and senior physicist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
    Climate debate at the Cambridge Union - a 10 minute summary of the main problems with the standard alarmist polemic

    ". . . . In fact, there is no single piece of evidence that proves that a given amount of CO2 increase should cause a large increase in temperature. You may say, “just a second, we saw Al Gore’s movie, in which he presented a clear correlation between CO2 and temperature from Antarctic ice cores”. Well, what he didn’t tell you is that one generally sees in the ice cores that CO2 lags the temperature by typically a few hundred years, not vice versa! The simple truth is that Al Gore simply showed us how the amount of CO2 dissolved as carbonic acid in the oceans changes with temperature. As a matter of fact, over geological time scales, there were huge variations in the CO2 (a factor of 10) and they have no correlation whatsoever with the temperature. 450 million years ago there was 10 times as much CO2 in the atmosphere but more extensive glaciations. . . ."
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2024
  2. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    34,191
    Likes Received:
    22,363
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I have never claimed it is incorrect; I have claimed there is no evidence to support it. Meanwhile, the Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis, already explained to you, handles causation much more persuasively, and is more consistent with observations.
     
    AFM likes this.
  3. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2014
    Messages:
    41,373
    Likes Received:
    10,989
    Trophy Points:
    113
    It's been done multiple times. You have ignored the proof because it doesn't fit the narrative of the enhanced CO2 effect hypothesis.
     
    Sunsettommy and Jack Hays like this.
  4. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2014
    Messages:
    41,373
    Likes Received:
    10,989
    Trophy Points:
    113
    What you describe is correlation. I had a friend who always ran faster with his red running shoes. What does that mean?
     
    Jack Hays likes this.
  5. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2012
    Messages:
    6,681
    Likes Received:
    2,321
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Well, yeah. It's like saying having a fire in the room is correlated with raising the temperature. It's common sense that there's a correlation.

    Correlation does not always equal causation, but in this case, it does. Because the hard evidence says it does.

    Explain how the earth comes out of glacial cycles without using hte effects of CO2. You can't. It's not possible. The orbital and albedo change effects can't heat the earth nearly enough.
     
  6. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2012
    Messages:
    6,681
    Likes Received:
    2,321
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    A fine appeal-to-authority fallacy, the first choice of people who can't provide any evidence.

    CO2 both lags and leads. Anyone who can't grasp that very basic fact shouldn't be bothering the adults. The fact that your source there made that error disqualifies him as any sort of expert in the subject. Since your authority is kind of a clown, your appeal to authority fails.

    And so he tops it off with a "You think CO2 is the only thing affecting climate" strawman. Either he doesn't understand the basics, or he's being deliberately dishonest. Both disqualify him as an expert.

    Nir Shaviv -- an astronomer with no climate science experience -- put forth a cosmic ray theory that predicted cooling, back in 2006. Instead, the world saw strong warming. He was proven wrong way back in 2006. Rather than admit the hard evidence says he's wrong, he's turned into a poliitcal hack, stooping so low as to even embrace the denier Climategate fraud. And he was a big pusher of the "hiatus" junk statistics.
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2024
  7. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2014
    Messages:
    41,373
    Likes Received:
    10,989
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The earth has had nine previous periods of warming followed by cooling in the Holocene period. None of these were caused by CO2. We are now in the tenth period of warming which started well before CO2 began to increase.
     
    Sunsettommy likes this.
  8. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    34,191
    Likes Received:
    22,363
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Yawn. I’ll take Shaviv’s 60+ climate-related peer-reviewed publications and his IAS Fellowship over your silly personal attack any day.
    Moreover, your claim about a 2006 cooling prediction is false.
    Finally, Climategate was certainly no fraud. It was a genuine ethical lapse among the alarmists.
     
  9. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2012
    Messages:
    6,681
    Likes Received:
    2,321
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I understand. Pointing that cult scripture has been proven to be just plain wrong would be considered "a personal attack", at least from the PoV of the cult.

    Shaviv predicted cooling if cosmic rays increased.

    Cosmic rays increased, and there was warming. Cosmic rays decreased, there was warming. Cosmic rays have no effect at all on climate. It warms no matter what the cosmic rays do.

    “It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.” ― Richard P. Feynman
     
  10. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    34,191
    Likes Received:
    22,363
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Sorry, but Shaviv made no such prediction.
     
  11. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    34,191
    Likes Received:
    22,363
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Another temperature warning proven to be a false alarm:
    Alarmist Predictions False! Not A Single Heat Wave This Summer At Cologne-Bonn
    By P Gosselin on 21. August 2024

    An analysis of data show that the Cologne-Bonn airport hasn’t had a single real heat wave so far this summer, as was the case in most places in Germany.
    “Experts” predicting a “summer of hell” are proven wrong.

    Hat-tip: Snowfan

    Firstly, there is no standardized international definition of the term heatwave. Definitions are often based on a combination of percentile-based threshold values.

    For example, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) defines a heat wave as a period during which the daily maximum temperature exceeds for more than five consecutive days the maximum normal temperature by 5 degrees Celsius.

    At the start of summer, climate alarmists predicted Germany would likely see a “summer of hell” with extreme heat waves and misery for Germans. Today we look back at this prediction, using data from the Cologne-Bonn airport weather station.

    The Cologne-Bonn airport is located right smack in the middle of Europe, and the following chart depicts the daily high temperatures recorded there this summer:

    [​IMG]

    Chart: WetterOnline.

    Though the temperature very briefly peaked over 30°C a few times this summer, there was never a protracted period of heat extending over days.

    After having hit 33°C and 29°C on August 11 and 12 respectively, the temperature peaked at a balmy high of 34°C on August 13th. But then the temperature rapidly cooled off the next day, reaching a high of just over 24°C.

    In summary: the summer of 2024 in Cologne didn’t see a single extended period of extreme heat, unless. that is, you call 3 days above 28°C a heat wave.

    This was the case across much of Germany. Granted, some German cities perhaps experienced warmer periods.

    One thing is sure: the “summer of hell” in Germany predicted earlier by Marc Benecke has now been exposed as just a plain-stupid climate horror story, probably intended to scare the FridaysForFuture kids.
     
    AFM likes this.
  12. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2020
    Messages:
    34,191
    Likes Received:
    22,363
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Sea level rise is not doing what alarmists predicted.
    New Study: Bangladesh’s Land Coast Has Expanded Seaward By 2677 Square Kilometers Since 1990
    By Kenneth Richard on 15. November 2024

    Another alarmist sea level rise/coastal flooding narrative collapses under the weight of observational evidence.
    In 1989, the year the U.N. assembled what was to become the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a “senior U.N. environmental official” warned that world leaders, or politicians, needed to enact policies to “solve the greenhouse effect” by the year 2000. If governmental policies were not implemented to reverse the global warming trend within ten years, “entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels.”

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: AP News
    A concerning regional setting at the time was Bangladesh, a country with 90 million people residing near coastal areas. The warning specified that “one-sixth of Bangladesh could be flooded, displacing a fourth” of its coastal population (20-25 million people).

    But the alarmist warnings were, of course, wildly wrong. The opposite has happened.

    A new study, utilizing remote sensing and geographic information system data, finds the total land surface of Bangladesh has expanded from 134,382 km² in 1990 to 137,656 km² by 2022, a 3,274 km² net increase in land area.

    The vast majority of this land area expansion has been the consequence of receding relative sea levels along the coasts and synchronous seaward coastal land growth.

    In 1990, the Bangladesh coasts measured 17,653 km² along the Bay of Bengal. By 2022, the Bangladesh coasts had expanded to 20,330 km², a 2,677 km² (13.2%) seaward coastal expansion.

    Not only have coastal populations not been displaced by rising sea levels, now thousands of more square kilometers of land is above sea level. Bangladesh’s population has swelled to 173 million (2023).

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Shahid et al., 2024

    Coastal land area growth has been occurring not just in Bangladesh, but satellite data reveal that since the 1980s “the coasts are growing all over the world“.

    A sample reef island in the Coral Triangle (between SW Sulawesi and the Strait of Makassar) shows “overall shoreline advance has led to a total island area of nearly 23 ha, indicating an increase of ~13% over the last 24 years” (Kappelmann et al., 2024).

    A comparison of how relatively smaller the island was in 1897 vs. 2023 (lower right image) demonstrates how much more land area is above sea level today than 125 years ago in this region.

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Kappelmann et al., 2024
    Deltaic regions are home to over 40% of the world’s mangroves. And now another new study indicates “80% of the mangroves’ shorelines are expanding seaward” from 1986 to 2020.

    “We found that the total area of mangrove forests display a significant gain with average change rate of 80.8 ha/yr during 1986-2020.”

    “Further, the mangrove forest shorelines present an expansion rate of 18.9 m/yr over the past 35 years.”

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Dai et al., 2024
    The alarmist narrative claims global warming means “entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels” in the 21st century. Observations do not support this alarmist narrative.
     
    AFM likes this.

Share This Page