Drought, what drought?

Discussion in 'Science' started by Mushroom, Mar 15, 2023.

  1. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    This is something that I have watched for years, and it never fails to amuse me.

    As expected, every year during the late fall, news agencies flock to Oroville to report the "record low water levels" in the reservoir. And like clockwork yet again, now that it is winter-spring, they are flocking there to report the record high levels of water.

    As if they had forgotten they have done it dozens of times in the past, and each time it is a complete shock that in the fall the lake is almost empty, and between late and middle Spring it empties and fills over and over again.

    https://www.newsweek.com/photos-sho...water-levels-before-after-major-storm-1788060

    The thing is, this literally happens every year. I used to live barely a mile from the dam, and drove along the Feather River from there to Sacramento every day for work. And what is going on now is literally as predictable as a calendar. The reservoir is full, with all the rainfall. And they are dumping water as fast as the Feather River can handle it. Large areas of farmland are now underwater as peak levels of water are released.

    Because reservoirs like Oroville are careful balancing acts. They are there primarily for flood control, and they have to be largely empty to do that job. Especially as there are still record snowfalls in the mountains, and the reservoir has to be low in order to handle all of that water.

    Now the image above along with the date is misleading to any that do not understand flood control reservoirs. Yes, that may seem low for late May, but the Sierra Nevada Mountains that feed that reservoir still had over 60 inches of snow on them. And there is over 3,000 square miles of mountains in the watershed.

    [​IMG]

    In fact, it is absolutely normal for that reservoir to be empty in September for many reasons. To start, it is not incredibly unusual for the rain season to come as early as October. And also because that is a major salmon breeding area they increase the flow from August to October to help the spawning salmon move upstream. In addition, by leaving only the historic river course it prevents the salmon and trout from spawning in areas that may drain and kill the eggs if the next year is dry.

    And as it is a reservoir, the water levels are 100% controlled by humans. And no matter what, there are minimum flow levels in place as cutting off the water would be detrimental to wildlife downstream (especially to fish and birds). And I can guarantee, it will likely be around half full in May, maybe even lower as they have to save water acres for impounding the coming snowmelt. And it will likely be fill again then. And come August-September, it will be empty again.

    And yes, the main spillway is open again for the first time in years. In case anybody forgot, that spillway failed in 2017. But here is the thing, the main spillway is rarely ever used. The actual main way of water leaving the reservoir is via tunnels that pass through a powerplant. That is actually where all water leaves the reservoir during normal operation. The main spillway is only used if the power plant is closed for maintenance, or they have excessive amounts of water and have to dump it faster than the power plant can handle.

    In fact, I can also predict that the Yolo Causeway is flooded right now.

    [​IMG]

    Once again, something as predictable as the tides. Along with flooding along the Feather River in Marysville. Yes, there are things built in the floodway. In Marysville there is a large motocross track, built tight in the flood area. But there is nothing permanent there, and come Spring they will be out there will bulldozers restoring any damage created. The Yolo Causeway is fields, primarily rice and wheat, but also corn. Come time for planting they will be restoring the levees for the rice paddies, and plowing the rest flat for other crops.

    The only structures down there are trailers, and they would have pulled those out at the end of harvesting, because they know that area floods almost every single year.

    Mostly, I just laugh because this literally happens every single year. Yet people always seem to act shocked when it floods again the next year. I have even laughed when I lived in Sacramento, and the occasional tourist would ask me what happened to the lake to the west of town. And I would explain over and over it was not a lake, simply a controlled flood basin that flooded most years from late fall to early spring, and was once again empty.
     

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  2. lemmiwinx

    lemmiwinx Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    When you politicize the weather by calling it climate change you take on the risk of being ridiculed unmercifully. And deservedly so.
     
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  3. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Well, this I admit annoys the hell out of me, because it is people trying to use a man made and controlled structure to push an agenda. And also relying upon everybody being stupid and forgetting that it happens every year.

    And why when I tell people to look to see if there is actually a "drought", to look at the natural lakes and their level, not man made reservoirs. And we have a huge lake right there in that area, Lake Tahoe. And it's historic level has barely budged in hundreds of years. I want to say the lowest it ever was is about 6" lower than normal.

    In fact, the worst thing that can happen this year to affect water is if we get a sudden warm wet period. That is often the actual cause of "drought" in California, as we have even had years of record precipitation and drought in the same year. As a late warm rainfall can melt off that snowpack early, and leave little to provide water for the rest of the year. That results in massive flooding, then a dry summer and fall as the snow melted off months earlier than normal. Or a slightly warmer than normal winter can still see huge amounts of precipitation, but little snow so it is all dumped and nothing is impounded for later in the year.

    The fact is, what is happening there happens every single year. Yet, people politicize it every single year, and act as if it never happened before. Of course, I am aware that most of the people that do this are city dwellers, and in reality have absolutely no idea how or why things like this are done. And I can guarantee, they are trying to dump as much water out of Oroville Reservoir as they can, likely hoping to empty it as quickly as possible. As there are record snowpacks in the Sierras, as in up to 360+ inches of snow. That is 150-175% of normal. And in the event one of those late warm rainfalls comes they need as much room in the reservoir as possible to capture as much as they can to prevent flooding between there and Sacramento.

    But in that entire area, they are used to that. There are many parks and other places that flood regularly when more water than usual is released. But as the only structures in them are generally concrete bathrooms it is just a matter of repairing the damage come spring and they are open for business again.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    That is a park I went to all the time when I lived there, and flooding like that happened almost every single year. But come June, it will be open for guests once again. And that picture is from 2021, when there was a "water emergency" going on. But that year and 2020 they just left the park closed, because of COVID.

    The fact is, the "rainfall" has barely changed in hundreds of years. Having an excess of people trying to consume that water does not make a "drought". That is a man made condition that is completely separate from actual rainfall. Throw almost 40 million people in an area that can not support that many, and you get shortages. Does not matter if you are fish, birds, or people.
     
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  4. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    The idea that exceptional dry spells followed by flood is not a very serious issue is just plain ridiculous.

    Yes, there is a man made component. People have ignored the water issue in growing populations in regions that don't have enough water.

    But, the larger issue IS that the extended dry spells we have experienced are NOT fixed by flooding.
     
  5. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    The California drought is over.
     
  6. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    There never was a drought. There are simply more people that the environment can sustain.

    I am sure a lot of those morons would be screaming there was a "drought", even if they took the population of LA and threw it into the middle of the Sahara Desert or the Pacific Ocean. They can not comprehend the difference between there being enough rainfall, and there being too many people for an area to support. They would still be screaming "drought", even though the rainfall in either of those has not significantly changed in thousands of years.

    They need to learn what the word actually means.

    There is no "abnormally low rainfall" in California, the rainfall has not changed there in several thousand years. It is simply that there are too many people, that does not make it a drought.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2023
  7. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Once again, the onset of a flood of water, causing its own disasters doesn't negate the serious impact of the drought that absolutely did exist.

    Plus, labeling this as a California phenomenon is not supportable. The regions of the US impacted by drought are absolutely NOT limited to California.

    Again, I agree that the irresponsible human expansionism in areas affected by drought increases the level of economic risk, including economic impact on agriculture.

    Water policy throughout a large multistate region has to be reexamined in light of change that is taking place.

    Similar examination may be necessary in other multistate regions.
     
  8. lemmiwinx

    lemmiwinx Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The ancient Sumerians had ways of storing water and recovering it in times of drought. Maybe some day Californians will be able to do the same.
     
  9. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Impossible. There is simply not enough rain for 40 million people. There has never been enough rainfall there to support 40 million people, ever.

    At its height, the Sumerian Empire only had around 1.5 million people. The population of the San Fernando Valley alone is over 1.8 million people.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2023
  10. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Their problems were nowhere near what we see today, shared by at least 4 states in the US southwest.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2023
  11. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Possibly true. But, it's also not really a problem that is limited to the number of humans.

    The agricultural output of CA alone is 15% of the production of US agriculture. Plus, the other affected states have serious agricultural production, too. As seen in CA, we can't just cut off agriculture in order to provide water for cities.

    Another problem here is that the population continues to expand, and we don't have governmental authority over where people may choose to live.

    Plus, as drought periods expand, we get more affected by the laws governing water use made long ago without accounting for today's regions that need water for humans and agriculture. For example, the headwaters of the Colorado river get diverted, leaving more southern agriculture and populations wanting.

    I'm betting we're pretty much in agreement here. I just wanted to expand on the scope of the problem somewhat.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2023
  12. politicalcenter

    politicalcenter Well-Known Member

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    It seems California could use some planning. Or, it is suffering from improper solutions.
     
  13. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    One simply can not plan their way out of not enough natural resources for an insanely large population. And to give an idea how bad it is, when I was born the population of the entire state was around 16 million. Today, it is just under 40 million. Most experts say the ideal population is around 25 million (where it was in the mid-1980s), as there were enough resources to go around and single family homes were still affordable. But things started breaking down once it hit 30 million in the early 1990s.

    However, as things have become so insanely expensive there, a lot of people are leaving. That is why it is second only to New York as the state losing the most people every year.

    Maybe they need to just ramp up their taxing and spending, although that is a double-edges sword. As the upper income groups will leave the state, and the lower income groups will flood in for more free stuff. And that is a group you just can't tax.
     
  14. impermanence

    impermanence Well-Known Member

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    When you destroy a more or less free market, prices are going to reflect corruption/contamination rather than supply/demand. Add in maximal financialization, lower than market interest rates, absurd government regulation, and the fact that everybody except first time home buyers wants to see the price of housing increase as much as possible, you end up with a total sh*t show in housing.

    And as far as the drought is concerned, it's still raining at my house in SoCal and is expected to rain for the next three days. Imagine how much has been stolen from taxpayers world-wide in the name Climate Change. People [in groups] are truly moronic. Around here they're buying million dollar homes and hundred thousand dollar pick-ups and can't understand why they can't afford to go out to eat six nights a week. Mass stupidity.
     
  15. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Let's remember that this isn't a CA thing. It covers a large region, affecting many states. Plus, acts in one state affect those in other states, since rivers cross state lines.

    This past drought affected as far north as Idaho, Colorado, and other states, impacting their agriculture and reducing the water that other states depend upon.

    In Utah, water management was an issue in many areas. Also, the lowering of Great Salt Lake had a significant impact on Salt Lake City. With the lake drying, residues of heavy metals and other compounds come to the surface, bringing the possibility of a future that makes living in the Great Salt Lake basing (places like Salt Lake City) unhealthy.

    Other states have impacted water flow in the Colorado. Water laws made for past generations have impacted agriculture throughout the southwest - causing tradeoffs between water for agriculture and water for people. The headwaters of the Colorado river are in Colorado, which has also been impacted.

    Continuing to pitch this as a CA problem is wrong headed in that the source of the problem is not limited to CA and the affects of the drought are also certainly not limited to CA.

    Also, periods of heavy rains do not solve the water problem. Floods cause serious damage. Plus, they may provide water for a time, but that doesn't mean that enough water can be stored to allow for future droughts of equal magnitude.
     
  16. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    That is why I left that area over 20 years ago, and never looked back. I moved from where I was not paying $800 to rent a room, to where I could rent half a duplex for $250. Where the 40% drop in income did not matter at all, as almost everything from insurance and rent to utilities and food was much cheaper. And I could (and did) afford to eat out almost every night. Rent was a third of what I paid there, and my car insurance was like 1/4 of what I paid in LA. And the funny thing was, the job I got was being left by a guy that was moving to Atlanta so he could make the "big bucks". He lasted there about a year then moved back, as he was making more money, he could not imagine how much more expensive everything was.

    California is a typical "Mediterranean Climate". That means hot dry summers, and cold wet winters. Lots and lots of rain seasonally, and hot and dry the rest of the year. And it is a desert, early settlers over 400 years ago found it almost unlivable because of how dry and hot it was. It has been that way for thousands of years, and has not changed. The only thing that changed is an insane number of people moving there.

    The literal definition of drought is an unusually low amount of precipitation that leads to a shortage of water. The problem with the politically charged animals is that they are cutting off the first part of the definition, and saying that a shortage of water alone makes a drought. It does not, California rainfall figures have been consistent per decade for at least 500 years. And the region has been in a water deficit for over a century, not because of "climate change", but overpopulation.
     
  17. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    People want to live in CA.

    That high demand causes prices to go up.

    That is called free market capitalism.

    Not everyone can afford it, thus they move somewhere else.

    This does create serious challenges, but let's not pretend that there is a source other than free market capitalism + democracy.
     
  18. impermanence

    impermanence Well-Known Member

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    There used to be a 10-20% premium for living in CA [due to high demand] but that started to seriously increase in the 90's due to all the factors I suggested [financialization, government regulation, central bank manipulation, etc.] began to affect prices. If it were a much truer free market, then it would only be a supply/demand issue which the market would have figured out [and it would still be a 10-20% premium (higher for beach towns)]. It's a big-ass state with plenty of room for people.
     
  19. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Nonsense. There is no rule about supply/demand being a straight line curve. And, your conspiracy theories are unsupportable.

    BUT, yes. There are plenty of places in CA where property prices are NOT high. But, like every other state, certain locations are in greater demand than in other places. And, that affects price.
     
  20. impermanence

    impermanence Well-Known Member

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    Non-sense? Conspiracy theories?

    We've previously established that your grasp of economic theory is not well developed. If you do not understand how each of the factors I stated have affected housing, I am not sure what to tell you [because it's really basic stuff]. Is every topic you people are ignorant about a conspiracy theory?

    Do you have to change-out the implanted chip or does the Democrat party just stream the downloads?
     
  21. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Naw, that is just due to overpopulation.

    Remember, the prices were already rising when the state had their last real Republican Governor. I remember when "affordable housing" in the mid 1980s was the Santa Clarita Valley, and was around $250k. When I returned in the early 1990s, it affordable housing at that price was in the Antelope Valley, and the housing in Santa Clarita was around $600k. Today, new "affordable housing" in the Antelope Valley is in the $700k range (Santa Clarita is in the $900k+ range), It has nothing to do with regulation, but the exploding population.

    Regulations and government have nothing to do with that, it is simply supply and demand. When you live in an area like that, you make a choice if you want to pay through the butt for housing, or get something cheaper and larger but with a nasty commute each day. Or you chose to live in a ghetto area. I have seen the prices there explode over the decades, and until the population decreases it will remain that way.

    I still remember the house I grew up in, in Encino. In 1975 the population of LA was at 7 million, and my parents sold the house for $35k. Today the population is just over 12.5 million, and that same house (2+1 780 square feet) is worth $800k. The new house in that price range in Santa Clarita is a 5+3 2,300 square foot house. So, does somebody choose to live in the San Fernando Valley in a tiny house, or commute about an hour extra for a house three times larger? Because in reality, it is not the house itself that is expensive but the land it sits in.

    When I worked in San Francisco, my wife and I made that kind of decision. I made a commute of almost 2 hours each way, where for the same price a loft apartment in the city costs we rented a 4+3 house. People I worked with thought I was insane, but we were not willing to live in the city and decided to commute instead for a better home.
     
  22. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I think you should try to find evidence of what you are saying.

    Claiming conspiracy theories with no evidence is ridiculous.
     
  23. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Amen.

    imho, we need to seriously improve public transit here in the Bay Area.

    Density is moving out east of San Jose, where land prices are lower. It's a disaster to have had your brains and ability stuck in a 2 hr commute, yet that's not all that uncommon.

    In the 70's I had a high school friend who "lived" in San Jose, not too expensive at the time. His mother and father worked too far away to commute, so they each stayed in hotels near their jobs, which were not close together. Then they commuted back to their home where the kid lived.
     
  24. impermanence

    impermanence Well-Known Member

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    Let me explain. THE most important factor that determines housing prices is bank lending. Not too many folks are paying cash [especially historically], so the price of housing is controlled by how much banks are willing to lend. Remember when banks would not lend over 25-28% of your income for your PITI? Well that was thrown out the window decades ago. And how about the manipulation of interest rates to 0 for the past thirteen years [until lately]? You don't believe that this affects the price of housing? And all of the absurd regulation that goes into the price of housing in CA?

    Supply and demand is certainly a factor but this has a way of taking care of itself [unless you want to be at the beach or some other premium location. If it was the policy of the country to support affordable home prices, then housing would be MUCH more affordable everywhere. Unfortunately, real estate became much more of an investment opportunity and everybody piled on [because the only people interested in low housing costs are first time buyers and renters and everybody knows that the next generation got totally f******* over as the BBs couldn't sell out their kids fast enough].
     
  25. impermanence

    impermanence Well-Known Member

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    This absolutely basic stuff. You need to read more [about housing costs].
     

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