Drought, what drought?

Discussion in 'Science' started by Mushroom, Mar 15, 2023.

  1. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    It's one paper and it doesn't even address the issues of drought in the American central region or the American Southwest.
     
  2. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Yes, one way to solve the water issues in the American Southwest would be to have those in Arizona, Utah, southern CA, etc. to move to Virginia.

    But, I don't believe you can sell that solution - either to those who live in those regions or to Virginia.
     
  3. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I know what our energy history has been.

    If there is something you don't like about our energy future, you should identify that.
     
  4. Pieces of Malarkey

    Pieces of Malarkey Well-Known Member

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    No, our energy future is great. As long as this global warming baloney isn't allowed to screw it up.
     
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  5. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Ultimately, they will have to move somewhere. The present population cannot be sustained in the Southwest.
     
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2023
  6. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    It addresses global drought probabilities. That includes the regions you cite. It seems to me you're just dodging and ducking.
     
  7. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    This response is limited to population issues.

    It is not war or disease that is leading to the stabilization of the total population of the USA and many other economically successful countries. COVID made a dent, but that was not lasting - it doesn't show the trend.

    In the US, procreation rate has been below replacement level. THAT is the serious factor, as it leads to a growing bubble of those decreasingly able to work and with increasing life times.

    Over the last few years we clamped down on legal (and illegal) immigration, thus leading toward a static or declining population. The justification may have been COVID at one time, but those restrictions have not been removed for reasons that are more political and xenophobic.

    Reasons for low procreation rate include that raising children is seriously expensive and not easy to accomplish. There are surveys that show that parents are having fewer kids than they want to have for economic reasons.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/03/american-population-growth-rate-slow/629392/
     
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2023
  8. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Bull. Someone can calculate an average for Earth.

    But, that does NOT mean that various regions all behave according to that average.

    Not only that, but changes in climate DO affect different areas in ways that are not the same.
     
  9. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Population Size and Growth

    Under the assumption of a high level of net international migration, the population is expected to grow to 458 million by 2050. For the Low Net International Migration series, the population is projected to reach 423 million in 2050.

    United States Population Projections: 2000 to 2050 - Census Bureau
    upload_2023-3-24_15-53-4.png
    census.gov
    https://www.census.gov › demo › analytical-document09
     
  10. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    That is what does not matter in a discussion of climate rather than weather.
     
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  11. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    That document appears to be 14 years old.

    I don't see it even mentioning the procreation rate in the US - a factor that has changed significantly over that period. Perhaps that is understandable, as in 2009 the US procreation rate was very near the 2.1 replacement rate that leads to constant population. So, it probably looked like it could be ignored.

    Also, the study it references is no longer available at the link in the cite.

    By now, the procreation rate is down to ~1.7, which indicates a declining population (without immigration).

    Surely this invalidates ALL their projections, as their unstated assumption appears way wrong and fertility rates are probably not the same across the ethnic groups they identify.

    This leads to a future of fewer people of working age - and all the problems that brings.

    Solutions may be the following, or others?:

    - Other countries that face this problem have tried to encourage procreation - child care, etc., etc., noting that people hare having fewer children than they want due to cost. Those have made a small difference - not a solution.

    - Wall Street points to the solution of improving productivity. That means infrastructure improvement, investment in education and science, direct investments in innovation, etc. Will this work?? imho, we need to do this regardless of any impact on population, as we are less than 4% of the world, and the world is NOT slowing down. We need more brain power than we are creating today.

    - AND, the major direction that HAS worked is immigration. The USA has clamped down HARD on legal and illegal immigration, partly using COVID as an excuse. The political climate is not amenable to moving back to pre-COVID levels of immigration, obviously. In fact, we've seen a serious increase in xenophobia.
     
  12. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure what you are trying to say here.

    How climate is changing is very important in understanding future weather.
     
  13. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    No, it is not. It is growing by an average of 1% per year for over 50 years.

    Per year, in other words each decade the population grows by 10%. That is why we have increased from 203 million in 1970 to 329 million in 2020. That is over 50% population growth in 50 years. Yes, the amount is lowering, but it is still in excess of 1% per year.

    We would have to have a negative number for it to be shrinking, and the US is not negative. Nations that are negative are Japan, Ukraine, Russia, Hungary, Belarus, and Greece. Their growth is in the negative and the population is decreasing every year.

    Holy hell, I need to start putting some on my list again. You throw up some kind of reference to a site that can not be verified as it is paid access, and can not even tell the difference between slow growth and no growth. But slow growth is growth, and the US population is unquestionably growing. It is not "below replacement level", that is negative growth and that is not the US. Hell, we added 11 million people between 2010 and 2020, that shows on average per year it is in excess of 1% per year.

    Not total, per year.

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/population-growth-rate

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?locations=US

    https://www.brookings.edu/research/...-u-s-population-growth-buoyed-by-immigration/

    See the above? Those are known as "references", and each and every one of them says quite clearly that you do not know what you are talking about, and are completely wrong.

    And the recent plunge is primarily due to COVID. However, if things follow past historical examples expect a boom to occur, as that is also common after pandemics. There actually was a boom in the first year, as couples who were stuck at home with little else to do ended up making more kids. But now we are still in a malaise in the numbers as less socializing has meant less social and sexual interactions.

    And you need to know how math works. A 1% increase per year is an increase. Does not matter if it is wages, inflation, or population. And as it compounds itself, figure that will (and does) grow each year as the kids from a decade and a half to two decades ago themselves reach the age to have kids. That is how the US went from 282 to 308 to 329 million.
     
  14. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Drought is lower than average rainfall over a prolonged period of time that causes a water shortage.

    Drought is not having too many people than a region can support.

    There is no natural drought, there never has been. Water averages have been stable since the Spanish missionaries started keeping records in the region 500 years ago. But what has changed is that starting over a century ago the population grew to the point that nature can no longer supply them with all the water needed. And since then they have drained all of the other sources in the region, yet the population continues to grow.

    That is "man made", and has not a damned thing to do with rain or climate. And there is no solution until the population is reduced.

    Period, because there is no more water to be had and will never be more water. They have already siphoned off all the water from every major river in the state, and it is still not enough water. It will never be enough water. Even with the torrential rainfall this year, come Autumn they will be in a water emergency again.
     
  15. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Our population is growing due to immigration.

    Our procreation rate is ~1.7, whereas simply reaching constant population level requires ~2.1

    The CBO puts it this way:
    [​IMG]
    But, the CBO is making its projections based on a return to preTrump immigration rates. Plus, the bulge in "births minus deaths" in the 2030 range is based on those immigrants coming and having kids here, as it sure isn't happening with our current population.

    Do YOU think we're going to double or triple our immigration rate under any possible legislature or presidency in the next 6 or 10 years? With the advent of xenophobia in the USA, I really don't believe this is likely to happen. Today, we're super concerned about white people not being in the majority, thus not getting as much benefit from being white. But, that is DEFINITELY not going to be reversed by immigration, as the percent of immigration of Caucasians is low.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNTFRTINUSA

    https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/03/american-population-growth-rate-slow/629392/
     
  16. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Wrong. I see that chart, and it is a dream. Look at everything prior to COVID, that is the reality. And it still shows population growth.

    All that stupid chart does is "predict" that in 2040 that it will be negative. In case you are not aware, it is only 2023. How anybody can predict trends doing a complete reversal in 2 decades is beyond me, but they are obviously on drugs.

    Once again, you are confusing fantasies with reality. Point on that chart you just showed where the population is not growing and is really shrinking. And I mean on historical data, not a fantasy.
     
  17. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    For a good number of years, our growth has come way more from immigration than from procreation.

    Plus, our procreation rate is well below the level that would sustain our population.

    You can quibble about the way I stated this problem. But, it IS what is happening and it IS a serious problem. And, it is clearly documented in the cites I gave.

    It is a problem that we have to look at years in advance, because no country on Earth has found a rapid solution for this problem.

    Plus, the actions we are taking today are strongly oriented toward making the problem worse.
     
  18. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    388 million by 2050.

    Population Projections for 2020 to 2060
    upload_2023-3-24_20-8-9.png
    Census Bureau (.gov)
    https://www.census.gov › publications › demo

    PDF
    by J Vespa · Cited by 1120 — Since 2010, the population has grown by about 2.3 million people per year and it is projected to continue growing by the same annual rate until 2030. However, ...
     
  19. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    I'm saying that your deflection to regional weather doesn't matter.
     
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  20. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    That assumes a major net immigration, which we simply do not have. Plus, the projection was made before the continuance of the serious slide in procreation rate in America.

    That document includes statements such as:

    "Beginning in 2030, net international migration is expected to overtake natural increase as the driver of population growth in the United States because of population aging."

    But, documents I've cited show that migration has outstripped the contribution of US fertility for YEARS now. In fact, it has been years since US fertility has contributed even HALF the total growth rate.

    Plus, the serious reduction in migration ordered by Trump has remained in place and the US shows NO political will to move the immigration rate back to pre-Trump levels - with Trump and other Republicans championing xenophobia.

    The bottom line is that US fertility is at ~1.6 children per woman, while 2.1 is the gold standard for what is required to keep our current population (without immigration). The reduction in fertility over the last decade has been blow the 2.1 point and is continuing to go DOWN according to serious measurement services such as:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNTFRTINUSA

    Question: How large an increase in immigration do YOU think America is going to support within the next 5 years?

    Question: What change do you think has a possibility of increasing the US birth rate?
     
  21. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    The OP and posts within this thread are explicitly about a region.

    As noted, you are off topic.
     
  22. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Wow, shall we look once again at the chart you yourself posted not long ago?

    [​IMG]

    Sorry, your own reference states that is clearly a lie. Unless you count the future prediction, which is absolutely worthless. After all, who in 1920 could have predicted the "Baby Boom" that followed WWII? That makes any of these predictions completely worthless and little more than mental masturbation.

    God, I absolutely love it when people themselves give me the ammunition needed to destroy their claims.
     
  23. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    That is all he ever does. Make things up, and then run around in circles as fast as he can. Even trying to contradict his own references.

    In fact, the prediction in that chart is wrong. As the actual US birth rate in 2021 rose by over 1.25% from the year before, yet the chart shows it shrinking. And it rose an additional .1% in 2022 to 1.35%. SO while he seems to be basing everything off of that "future prediction" chart, we already know for a fact it is completely wrong just in the 2 years we now have records for that are covered in it. Where it showed a sharp decline, and in fact it was the opposite.
     
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  24. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Remember that I cited that chart to show the real numbers up to today - and I very clearly demolished their ridiculous projection on at least two very clear grounds.

    So, now you cite what I said and suggest YOU are right. HILARIOUS!!

    Again: I cited that chart, because it shows the actuals up to today.

    >>> It shows that our population growth is HIGHLY dependent on immigration - which is my point.
     
  25. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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