Has the Global Temperature Trend Turned to Cooling?

Never disputed that year 2022 is warmer than 2021 but that is a two year loop with one a little warmer than the other, the main reason why I post these pause and cooling trends regularly that runs for more than 5 years at a time exposes how despite the continued increase of CO2 in the atmosphere the postulated CO2 effect doesn't keep up and doesn't catch up either since the rate of warming has decreased slightly via the UAH temperature data which used to show a .14C/decade now it is back to .13C/decade.

EL-NINO phases are dominant cause of warming since 1979 which shows the power of the Sun/Ocean dynamo at work, CO2 warm forcing effect is much overblown.

 

Every year since 2016 has been cooler than the previous year.

Our planet’s temperature peaked in 2016 and has been in a disciplined decline since. It is in a channel 0.5°C wide with a slope of -0.03°C per annum. The atmosphere had been warming at 0.013°C per annum according to Dr Roy Spencer’s work. If the established cooling trend continues it will only take another decade to get back to the temperatures of the early 1980s. With the cooling trend firmly established, the question is: Can the proximate cause be found in the solar record?


Figure 1: NCDC global temperature anomaly 1979 – 2021

 

No, UAH clearly shows 2018 was cooler than either 2019 or 2020:

https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

And so does the NCDC graph you posted yourself:

 

Nope.

 

Tokyo Mean October Mean Temperature Has Been Falling For Decades
By P Gosselin on 4. November 2022

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Charts produced by Kirye

This October, according to the (untampered) data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the mean temperature in Tokyo came in at 17.2°C, making it it one of the coolest over the past decades:



Data source: JMA.

More significant, however, is the trend over the past 33 years – it’s been downward. As we reported last month, the Tokyo mean temperature trend situation for September is similar – no warming.

Hachijojima island

Tokyo’s rural island of Hachijojima is located some 287 km out in the Pacific, thus making it rather free of massive urban heat island effects. The island saw an October, 2022, mean temperature of 20.9°C:



Data source: JMA.

Going back to 1987, the October mean temperature trend has been slightly downward as well. No sign of warming.

NASA “adjustments”

Yet, when you compare Hachijojima JMA annual temperature data to that from NASA unadjusted and then its homogenized data going all the way back to 1950, readers can get a good idea where all the “warming” is really coming from:



There was no warming, until that is NASA tampered with the data to produce a “warming” trend. NASA’s trend starts to look like forgery and fakery.

 

Yep. I invite readers to just look at them and confirm for themselves that I am objectively correct.

 

Fair enough. I should revise my statement to the effect that the temperature trend since 2016 has been cooling.

 

Right!!

 

Ace Forecaster Bastardi: “Something We Used To See In 1970s”, Warns Of “Spectacular Cold”
By P Gosselin on 27. November 2022

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Risk of a “spectacular cold outbreak “…have countries let their guard down?

In his most recent Weatherbell Saturday Summary, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi looks ahead at the winter weather over the coming weeks across the globe.

What definitely distinguishes Joe from forecasters I follow here in Germany is that he doesn’t rely solely on the so-called ensemble models to make his longer term forecasts, but goes way back into the archives and searches for similar patterns that took place even decades ago (analogues) in order to better discern which way the weather is likely to turn in the weeks ahead.

German forecasters like here , here and here like to put out videos once or even twice daily to report on what the many model ensembles are showing, which is something no one really needs a meteorological license to do. Too often you hear these weather pundits suddenly change their 7+ day forecast, in lockstep with whatever the latest ensemble run crunches out. Yet, most of us know that such forecasts are only valid until the next ensemble run because 7 days out the models can and often make U-turns.

“Very concerned” about coming cold

In Joe’s latest forecast, he again makes use of analogue years to forecast weeks ahead. I recall a forecast he made some 2 weeks ago warning that early December likely will turn cold in Europe – long before anyone else – basing it on weather patterns seen over past decades. Lo and behold, now the models are finally seeing wintry weather for next weekend.

In his latest forecast, Joe has become “very concerned” about the coming cold, which is going to be a real problem for not only people in the US, but around the globe.

“Mark my word, if this kind of cold shows up, that we’ve been setting up since the end of summer, and it looks like it at least has merit to consider, there’s going to be a blaming on climate change because of the blocking that caused it.”

Joe worries that many countries aren’t going to have sufficient energy to meet the forecast cold challenges, something politically inexcusable in 2022 with all our modern technology.

The kind of cold and blocking pattern ahead Joe is referring to is something the globe also saw/recorded decades ago and it’s not going to be anything new should it come to past.

Joe shows charts that point to what he says “could be a spectacular outbreak of cold”. Only now are the models showing what Joe had warned of weeks and months ago: northern hemisphere land masses getting gripped by sub-normal cold:



Source: Cropped from Weatherbell

“That’s wild. That’s something we saw back in the 1970s,” Joe notes.

The 1970s also saw energy shortages, and with similar weather patterns. You’d think our leaders would have learned something from all of it. Unfortunately not. Once again a number of countries risk energy shortages this winter.

Of course no forecast is ever certain. But over the years, Joe has often beat the long term forecasts (14+ days out) made by the national weather offices. Goes to show we can learn a lot from weather history.

 

Sooner or later someone is going to notice.

Worldwide Record Cold Challenges Climate Rhetoric and Risks Lives by Complacency
Guest Blogger
It is the cold that kills. If anything, the warming of the past three centuries has been extremely beneficial to mankind, helping us achieve unprecedented progress in human health, living…

 

Downhill again.

UAH Global Temperature Update for November, 2022: +0.17 deg. C
December 6th, 2022
Sorry for the late posting of the global temperature update, I’ve been busy responding to reviewers of one of our papers for publication.

The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for November 2022 was +0.17 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean. This is down from the October anomaly of +0.32 deg. C


The linear warming trend since January, 1979 now stands at +0.13 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land). . . .

 

Warmist/alarmists had an awful year as they had little to wail about hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, heat waves all down this year.

Snowfall is at the highest level on record to date in north America, record cold comes early in north America which is why they have been silenced these days as they withdraw into utter despair as their manic pessimism isn't getting filled as wanted by their crooked media and their lying leftist handlers.

Why not break the bonds of a world of lies and disinformation to embrace the other side who live in the sun of reality where there is no climate emergency to be found as it doesn't exist.

 

It's getting colder.
UK’s Arctic Blast and Australia’s Cold Spring Contradict Climate Narrative
Guest Blogger
The mainstream media (MSM) wants the world to believe that climate change has turned us into rotisserie chickens. . . .

 

The AGW narrative is nearing its end.
UAH – What is Foretold
Guest Blogger
What is apparent is that the detrended temperature anomaly distribution is nearly symmetrical. . . .

". . . The uptrend channel 0.8°C wide to 2015 is well defined with the orange upper and lower boundaries absolutely parallel and rising at 0.011°C per annum. Since the 2016 El Nino the trend is now down in a tighter, steeper trend channel that is 0.5°C wide and falling three times as fast at 0.036°C per annum.

From this downtrend, can we say that the Modern Warm Period is over, that global warming is definitely over, dead and buried, when the current downtrend regime takes us below the lower bound of the previous uptrend channel?

That could happen as soon as 2025 if the temperature anomaly stayed within its new downtrend channel. Sooner than that would be better for the world (since global warming is a bad thing, the corollary is also true – the faster it gets colder, the better). But it would be scientifically gratifying if the temperature trend stayed non-random in achieving what we want.

Either way, blessed release is coming."

 

Cooling continued in 2022.
UAH Global Temperature Update: 2022 was the 7th Warmest of 44-Year Satellite Record
January 3rd, 2023
December of 2022 finished the year with a global tropospheric temperature anomaly of +0.05 deg. C above the 1991-2020 average, which was down from the November value of +0.17 deg. C.


The average anomaly for the year was +0.174 deg. C, making 2022 the 7th warmest year of the 44+ year global satellite record, which started in late 1978. Continuing La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean have helped to reduce global-average temperatures for the last two years. The 10 warmest years were:

• #1 2016 +0.389
• #2 2020 +0.358
• #3 1998 +0.347
• #4 2019 +0.304
• #5 2017 +0.267
• #6 2010 +0.193
• #7 2022 +0.174
• #8 2021 +0.138
• #9 2015 +0.138
• #10 2018 +0.090

The linear warming trend since January, 1979 continues at +0.13 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land). . . .

 

The news is good for everyone but the alarmists.
Good 2022 Climate News the MSM didn’t tell you
Guest Blogger
Guest Post by Javier Vinós No minimally informed person denies that climate changes. The climate has always changed. Since 1860 the predominant climate change has been warming, which is fortunate…

 

They just can't bring themselves to admit the cooling.
CNN Ignores the Real Story on the ‘Past Eight Years Have Been the Eight Warmest on Record’
JANUARY 12, 2023

 

Yeah, they resort to omissions, distortions and flat out lies to promote a delusion on a population that has been increasingly indifferent to the media bullcrap over it.

It is sad when warmist/alarmists can't handle the overwhelming evidence of a recent cooling trend which some are loudly denying here in this forum is happening when Climate realists can accept that it is warming since 1979 without a problem.

 

The Guardian

This article is more than 6 months old
Coldest start to winter in decades for eastern Australia with power grid under strain.

Peter Hannam

June 16, 2022

Early June temperatures in Melbourne didn’t go above 15 degrees for first time in 70 years as cold weather pattern starts to break.

Excerpt:

Eastern Australia’s giant cold snap is finally breaking down but not before temperatures reached lows not seen for seven decades or longer and pushed the country’s main electricity grid to the brink.

The extended chill was caused by an unusual weather pattern that locked in cool pools of air over southern and eastern states, triggering the deepest snow dumps in the alps since 1968, according to Ben Domensino, a senior meteorologist at Weatherzone.

“Because it was so persistent over two weeks, we haven’t seen a start to winter that cold in decades for most of south-eastern Australia,” Domensino said.

LINK

 

Antarctica’s Missing Warming: Japanese Syowa Station Shows Cooling Since 1977
By P Gosselin on 20. January 2023

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Chart by Mrs. Heller, a.k.a. Kirye

Despite all the claims of a “rapidly warming planet”, we know Antarctic sea ice extent has seen a rather impressive upward trend over the past 40 years, which tells us cooling is more likely at play.

Here’s southern hemisphere sea ice extent chart (up to 2017):



Antarctic sea ice has gained steadily over the past 40 years. Chart: Comiso et al, 2017

It’s not what you’d expect from a CO2-induced warming planet.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has collected temperature data from the Syowa station in Antarctica since 1977. Today we present the latest data, which now includes the year 2022:



Data source: JMA

Here we in fact see a modest long-term downward trend. There’s no detectable CO2 warming signal. The periodic warming and cooling cycles are likely related to oceanic cycles.

No warming along the Antarctic mainland coast

In 2019, we in fact plotted the data from 10 Antarctic stations scattered along the Antarctic coastline and operated by various countries. None of them showed any warming trend at all.

In 2019 we also looked at the annual temperatures of the 5 stations of the South Shetland Islands (located in the Antarctic Ocean).



Where’s the warming? Other than the volcanic activity, there certainly hasn’t been any at the South Pole since the global warming hysteria began in the late 1980s.

 

Latest Mean Annual Temperature Data Show Tokyo Has Been Cooling For Decades!
By P Gosselin on 25. January 2023

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TOKYO HAS COOLED OVER THE PAST 30 YEARS.
Hachijō-jima island hasn’t seen any climate change in decades!

Charts by Kirye

The mean temperature data for December, 2022, for the city of Tokyo, Japan and its Hachijō-jima island in the Pacific are now available from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).

These data now allow us to look at the newest annual mean temperature trends for the two locations.

First we look at latest annual mean temperature plots for Tokyo since 1994:



Data: JMA.
. . . .

 

The descent has steepened.
UAH Global Temperature Update for January, 2023: -0.04 deg. C
February 1st, 2023
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for January 2023 was -0.04 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean. This is down from the December 2022 anomaly of +0.05 deg. C.


The linear warming trend since January, 1979 now stands at +0.13 C/decade (+0.11 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land). . . .

 

Unusual for a drop in UAH Januarie's because of how they read the atmosphere.

Cooling is still ongoing.

 

New Study: CO2 Fertilization Drives The 1980-2018 Global Greening Trend…Greening Leads To Cooling
By Kenneth Richard on 2. February 2023

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A “widespread greening trend” has been “significantly cooling the land surface” since the 1980s.
Another new study documents a clearly-defined land surface greening trend over the last 40 years. The greening is linked to CO2 fertilization and climate change (warming).

Greening, in turn, leads to land surface cooling, partially offsetting recent warming.



Image Source: Li et al., 2023
. . . .

 

Meanwhile, back in the real world ...

https://www.severe-weather.eu/globa...a-ice-extent-record-low-anomaly-observed-rrc/

Post #220. Jack uses very outdated old data that doesn't show the recent Antarctic ice crashdown, so he can pretend Antarctic ice is increasing instead of decreasing. That tells you all you need to know.

And this.

https://www.noaa.gov/news/2022-was-worlds-6th-warmest-year-on-record

That's with a strong La Nina depressing temperatures. El Nino is coming. This thread has aged very badly even without that. The El Nino will blow it away.

And note how NOAA and NASA _don't_ use the ultrafudgy UAH model. Nobody uses it, because they don't want to be laughed at.