I could be wrong, but here's why Harris will win

In a close race, and this is a close race, the race will be decided by the undecided vote.

Well, from what I can tell, they are breaking for Harris.

The reason is that in the last week, Trump has been blowing it, MSG debacle, stupid things he's said, his low energy is detectible, his garbage comment, his refusal to denounce the comedian's anti-RP comments, the stupid Garbage truck stunt, and he wobbled up to the door, he's just come off as awful so Trump has given the late deciders a good reason to vote for Harris.

Works for me

Not only that, the IOWA poll, an A+ pollster, who has only got it wrong once in years (2004) has Harris several points ahead in IOWA, and that she's doing well in such a traditionally red state doesn't bode well for Trump.

https://news.yahoo.com/news/democrats-losing-over-surprising-presidential-192035772.html

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...nald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007


But, we shall see what it looks like late tomorrow night.

My bet is on Harris.

 

Hilarious. "Low energy". Trump has out campaigned her from the start.

 

This poll does not jibe with every other poll taken in that state.

Are you familiar with what is called a statistical outlier? This statistical anamoly occurs 1 in every 20 polls. In an election year with hundreds of polls flying around. It happens with predictable regularity. Logic would indicate this would be one of them. If the Harris camp believed there was any validity and accompanying chance to win that state, they would be going there to campaign.

If this poll were real, she will win by a landslide. I wouldn't bet on her winning Iowa, not even with 3 to 1 odds. You would be wasting your money.

 

If it's close enough to steal, they'll steal it.

 

I don't know who's going to win. But let me tell you an anecdote: I live in HEAVY Trump-country, Florida. In 2016 and 2020, just about every single house... one after the other, had a Trump-Pence sign. This time around, they are rare. This signals that there is very little enthusiasm for Trump. Not necessarily that they won't vote for Trump. But Republicans are unenthusiastic.

Another anecdote: I asked last week in a local forum (Next Door), when was the best time to vote. EVERYBODY answering says that there are no lines. They basically walked in and out in 5 to 10 minutes. Four years ago there were long lines the whole week before the elections. Consider also the fact that Republicans REMOVED most of the voting places in my city. There were about 6. Now there is only ONE (the library). I was reading reports about turnout in areas where DEMOCRATS are strong (Orlando, Tampa,etc), and the lines there have been long all week long. I was listening to a spanish station in Orlando reporting long lines of puerto ricans. Most being interviewed said they had been uninterested in voting UNTIL... they heard the "garbage" joke at Trump's rally last week.

Purely ANECDOTAL... I know. It might not mean anything. It's not like Democrats are going to actually win Florida (they won't!). But it DOES indicate that there is very little enthusiasm for Trump. If this is happening in battleground states, your prediction might come true.

 

If there is an outlier, it's highly unlikely that that would be the De Moines Register Poll

Not impossible. But it would be an anomaly on top of an anomaly.

 

@Patricio Da Silva


“I could be wrong” and like always you are.

 

This shows that you do not understand statistical sampling. Statistical samples are wrong 95% of the time due to statistical anomaly. This has not one thing to do with the quality of a particular poll. This is purely about the limitations of the use of statistical sampling to estimate the whole. This is about the reality of statistics, not an error in poll design.

Nobody seriously involved in campaigns or polls honestly thinks that Harris will win Iowa. If she wins Iowa, the ramifications of that dynamic nationally would mean that the rest of the country would have similar shifts which would result in a 1984 Reagan style landslide.

Nobody knowledgable honestly thinks that is what is about to occur. This dynamic would show up in other states polls and it most certainly has not. You can have legitimate hope that Harris wins tomorrow, but you are chasing ghosts if you think she will win Iowa. That is fools gold.

 

Or, they don't want to become a target for anti-Trumpers.

 

The point wasn't whether she would win Iowa the point was the poll by an A+ Pollster

 

What nonsense! If statistical samples are wrong 95% of the time, that means they're only right 5% of the time. Which would give credence to the Des Moins Register assuming that's the 5% that is RIGHT while the other 95% are wrong.

Of course, the fact is simply that your post is complete made up gibberish.

Most likely you heard something about the poll having 95% CONFIDENCE and you confused that with "samples" being "wrong".

 

A+ pollsters have statistical anomaly polls just as often a B- pollsters. A statistical anomaly is not due to an error in poll design. It is due to the limitations of statistical sampling. It is part and parcel of the process.

Statistical anomaly polls have no probative value whatsoever. They are throwaways. This happens with 5% of polls.

Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8 points. That type of shift does not occur out of thin air in a vacuum. It would be reflected across many other states.

 

We'll find out tomorrow night

 

Incompetent rebuttal

fail

 

It's close race and the undecided they're breaking for her she will win the popular vote whether she wins electoral college that's anybody's guess I suppose it will depend on how big the Gap is Republicans have an advantage in the Electoral College which is another reason why we need to revise the system

 

Hardly she's gotten far more small donations she flush with cash Trump is struggling and whining about it

 

I despise her, but agree that she and that useless toad she's running with WILL WIN! It will be "Obama 3.0"!

The Democrat Party is the party of UNEARNED welfare, 'subsidies' (just another word for welfare), 'services', and other government handouts. That's what the Democrat Party has been for the past 90 years! Of course, Kammy is going to win, especially during times like this while high prices and inflation on things that people actually buy on a recurring basis are so high!

. "If it ain't broke, don't FIX it!"

 

Im only referring to your statement in the OP that I responded to. You said "Not only that, the IOWA poll, an A+ pollster, who has only got it wrong once in years (2004) has Harris several points ahead in IOWA, and that she's doing well in such a traditionally red state doesn't bode well for Trump."

You are judging that shes doing well in a traditionally red state, but basing that belief on a a statistical outlier poll which as a statistical outlier has zero probative value.

 

Harris can only win if the people in charge of PA rig the election again. That is it. Her path to win is the same as Joe's was: Cheat.

Free and fair elections died in 2016 when Trump and the American people voted to get rid of the system that was defrauding them and install someone who knew how to make everyone's lives better. The revolt from inside the establishment was something we have never seen before.

Many of the them are guilty of breaking the law and getting rich off taxpayers and they did not want it to end or to be indicted for what they were doing.

 

The betting odds favor Trump. That makes Trump a safe bet if anyone wants to place a bet.

 

The issue was about your claim Trump has low energy. What does this have to do with low energy?

Deflecting again?

 

Fascism. Rodeo. Will he get the votes?
This felon?! No! He'll never get the votes!
Get the votes! He'll never get the vote!
He still might get the votes.
Get the votes
This felon
He'll contest the votes
He'll still claim the votes
Get the votes
No, no, no, no, no...

 

If they can steal it, they will.

 

I find at odd you didn't mention all the conservatives and Republicans freebies and tax breaks and subsidies they give to the rich and you don't seem to mind that but you do have a problem with Democrats helping poor people are you sure your values are in the correct order?