I could be wrong, but here's why Harris will win

We won't have a clue tomorrow... it may be weeks before we know.... thanks to the Democrats...

Truthful rebuttal... you fail...

 

Who Is Ann Selzer and Why Am I Hanging My Sanity on Her?

If, like me, you hate looking at polls in general, you may also be wondering what is so special about this one. Iowa is not a state that most experts would consider in play in the presidential race, and the 47-to-44 percent result is within the margin of error. But the Des Moines Register survey was conducted by J. Ann Selzer, one of the best, if not the best, pollsters in the United States. Selzer has been in the field since the late 1980s, and her track record is nearly flawless — in the past 12 years, she’s only been wrong about the result of the 2018 Iowa gubernatorial race. In 2016, her surveys were the canary in the coal mine: While most pollsters had Hillary Clinton definitely winning the election, Selzer bucked conventional wisdom and found that the Democratic nominee would likely lose Iowa, foreshadowing what would later happen across the country. And when many pollsters in 2020 had President Joe Biden winning the race decisively, Selzer’s final poll hinted at how the election would ultimately be decided by razor-thin margins due to Trump’s strength among blue-collar and independent voters.

https://www.thecut.com/article/ann-selzer-iowa-poll-harris-trump-women.html

 

Accurate pollster or not, statistical anomalies have nothing to do with poor polling methods or the skill of the pollster in any way. It is purely a statistical expectation that occurs with all statistical samplings of a subset being used to predict the whole. How good or bad Ann Selzer may or may not be, has no bearing on this statistical occurence.

 

If Trump loses, the Democrats first order of business will be to legalize all the illegals they have imported into swing states. If they succeed there, the Republican Party will never win a national election again. Fetterman admitted this was the Democrats on Joe Rogan the other night. Perhaps the Democrats shouldn't let brain-damaged surrogates lay out their plans on the most watched podcast on the planet. If Trump wins, the deportations must begin and charges of treason should be brought on the parties who attempted this coup of America.

 

You might want to recheck that DesMoines poll.

 

How so?

no, incompetent, sorry. Not an argument.

Please find a substantive argument.

 

Harris 47 Trump 44

 

She's been right on every election except in 2004.

I won't take hers as an anomaly, given her methods are different than most pollsters.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pollster-behind-shock-iowa-poll-141137266.html

 

Just keep thinking that.

^link

 

PLease take your CT to the CT forum.

IN over 30 years, they have only won the popular vote once. That means that they only win is by a fluke of the electoral college, that means they don't have the will of the people. What that means is you need to find a new message to sell, because the public isn't buying what you guys are selling.

Really? Prove it. Rogan is on YT, so find me the link and give me the timestamp where he says that.

Perhaps you shouldn't traffic in conspiracy theories and get your facts straight.

 

That's what the poll says. I'm not thinking, I'm looking at the poll.

 

Yeah, and it's been blown out of the water. But, cling to whatever lifesaver you can reach.

From my link -dated today:

 

Emerson predicted a Clinton landslide in 2016 lol!!!

 

I predict Kamala getting PA but Trump flipping Michigan.

I think Trump will get 284 Electoral college but lose popular vote again.

I predict liberal tears galore and predictable demographic turnouts

White men will overwhelmingly vote Trump.
White women will vote more Trump.

The Blacks, Asians, Jews, Hispanics, etc will go democrat but it won’t be enough to tilt the election

 

Not only that his crowd sizes are getting smaller and people are leaving early……in droves. Two further factors - Trump hasn’t broadened his appeal. Especially not with women “protector whether they like it or not”. Eeeeewwwww! Creep factor 110/10 and has had the access Hollywood tape going viral among young voters

 

That is not what we are seeing happening. Why wouldn’t women vote for a woman?

 

Yeah! We shall see

 

So what?

 

And I just posted a more recent one.

 

There isn't much to say about it. I saw him on TV at a rally, and we was talking slow, subdued, very low energy, if you ask me.

 

Not to me, you didn't.

 

You don't know that her poll is a 'statistical anomaly', you just pulled that out of your ass.

 

An outlier poll is one that uses methods whose results are consistently outside the normal range and tends to be partisan, like Rasmussen whose polls consistently lean right by an abnormal margin. Hers has gone both ways, so she is non partisan.

Her one poll doesn't get you to 'outlier'.

It *might* get you to 'statistical anomaly' but given her track record of bucking the norm, and still getting it right, doesn't get you to that characterization, either.

 

No one is rigging the election, nor have they, ever.

Sorry, but you have no evidence.

You've been bamboozled by the greatest con man in the world, PT Barnum would be so proud, of Donald Trump.

 

For the last few years, my opinion of women in general has dropped steadily. Some now claim I hate women, but I think that's unfair as I have just as many beefs with men in general.

But clearly your opinion of women is even lower than mine.