Iranian Nuclear Negotiations are going exactly as you would suspect

Discussion in 'Middle East' started by Lil Mike, Jan 2, 2022.

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  1. Mircea

    Mircea Well-Known Member

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    You're mistaken. That would be true only for Plutonium-239 weapons.

    It does not apply to Uranium-235 fission weapons.

    U-235 weapons are simple to construct and do not need to be tested, which is why no country save Pakistan has ever tested a U-235 fission device.

    The reason Pakistan test-detonated a U-235 fission device is not to see if it would work, but rather to let the world, and in particular India, know they had nuclear devices.

    Again, you're mistaken. That is not true for U-235 devices. They are incredibly simple, as in totally unsophisticated, and they require little maintenance except for a 60-month check of the firing system.

    That is true for Pu-239 devices. They are incredibly sophisticated and very fragile. They have to be stored in environmentally controlled facilities.

    I had to snag a PII warhead once because even though it was in an ABREST, a lightning strike 400 meters away fried the circuitry. I hooked up the talk-box and couldn't even get the serial number off of it.

    That depends on the delivery system.

    For aircraft and missile systems, yes, but for artillery fired projectiles, no.

    That makes no sense. No State would ever threaten to use nukes. They would simply use them.

    Why would they?

    Why would Namibia or Cambodia need a defense when they aren't targets and never will be? There are more than 150 States that wouldn't need a defense. Really, you should stop watching Hollyweird movies.

    In addition to MIRV, something you can add to your vocabulary is MRV and MARV.

    They don't.

    Not true. They could damage most developed-States, but not undeveloped or developing States.

     
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  2. Toggle Almendro

    Toggle Almendro Well-Known Member

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    That is incorrect. Israel has 5000-pound bunker busters (the kind that the US developed for Iraq in 1991), and Israel has the ability to drop them on targets in Iran.


    Even if this claim is true, Israel would still have been able to handle any Iraqi defenses.

    History records that the US government did not know anything about the attack until after it had happened.


    Israel is capable of finding targets on their own. They do not need anyone's help in order to do so.


    That depends on how complex the U-235 weapon is.


    The US tested a U-235 device in Ivy King in 1952.


    It is possible that Pakistan would not have been 100% sure that it worked without the test, especially if the design uses implosion with tritium boosting (as it probably does).


    That depends on the design of the device. Not all U-235 weapons utilize a gun design.


    The B61-11 can survive a high velocity impact with the ground.


    https://www.usnews.com/news/world-r.../north-korea-threatens-us-with-nuclear-attack


    Nuclear weapons would cause serious damage if used against the cities of an undeveloped nation.


    Not really.

    It would be pretty funny if we bombed Iran (conventionally) for awhile though.


    We don't have to justify our use of nuclear weapons to anyone at all.

    Although realistically, if we started nuking someone, we would start off with cruise missiles launched from bombers. We would save our SLBMs until the last thing.


    Oh please. If we nuked some scumbags, antiwar kooks would whine at us for awhile, but no one would do anything to us at all.


    So inform them first.

    Although like I said above, we would start off a nuclear war using cruise missiles launched from bombers. SLBMs would be saved for last.


    There is no need to invade Iran. No need for nuclear war either. Just pummel them conventionally with our stealth bombers until our pilots run out of targets to destroy.
     
  3. Mircea

    Mircea Well-Known Member

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    No, they don't have the ability. It's called "physics." Look into it.

    It is true and knowing that entry into Iraqi air-space would be undetected is what allowed Israel to use the bare minimum number of aircraft.

    Unclassified history. The classified history tells a different story.

    No, Israel relies on satellite imagery from the US and Britain, as well as aerial recon imagery.

    For example, during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Israel would have lost had it not gotten satellite and aerial imagery from the US.

    There's no such thing as a complex U-235 device.

    That was a fission-fusion device which is not the same thing as a fission device.

    To add insult to injury, it used both U-235 and Pu-239

    It was an unboosted U-235 fission device.

    If you knew anything about warhead maintenance, you'd know that would require a 6-month maintenance cycle which Pakistan could not afford, not to mention the cost of Tritium is exorbitant.

    The US did use Tritium, but only with Deuterium, and it had a 12 month maintenance cycle.

    They all do. They only time they don't is when they are used with Pu-239. U-235 is cheaper and easier to produce than Pu-239, which is why nearly all Russian devices used both.

    Undeveloped States have nothing to damage. If you wanna burn people's grass huts to the ground, you can use an aerosol bomb or napalm.
    Ask the Vietnamese.

    There's no need to do that. It's only necessary to seize Khuzestan Province and launch cruise missile strikes on power generation plants and then watch Iranians kill each other so's they can eat each other since they won't have any food.

    You do if you want to survive.

    Your mistake is that you erroneously believe the rest of the world needs you. They don't and they'll get along just fine without you.

    You'll run out of stealth bombers before that happens.
     
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  4. MGB ROADSTER

    MGB ROADSTER Banned

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    The Ayatullas are Not Israel's problem.
    They are the free world's major problem.
    Most of the respected members here cannot understand that Iran's fanatic leaders are far more dangerous than Kim Jong-un.
     
  5. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    It looks like things are still going swimmingly.

    Russian Diplomat: Iran "Got Much More Than It Expected" In New Nuclear Deal About To Be Finalized

    Russian diplomat Mikhail Ulyanov praised Iranian negotiators ahead of the public announcement of an updated deal that would presumably reduce international sanctions on their oil and gas in exchange for limiting their civilian nuclear program.

    "Iranian colleagues are fighting for [their] national interest like lions," he said. "They fight for every comma, every word, and as a rule, quite successfully."

    "I am absolutely sincere in this regard when I say that Iran got much more than it could expect," he said. "Our Chinese friends were also very efficient and useful as co-negotiators."

    "I can recollect dozens of such cases when on rather serious, significant questions, we managed together to get positive results close to what we wanted to achieve," he said according to this video from Polaris NatSec
     
  6. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Finally a few details of the new deal...

    This Isn’t Obama’s Iran Deal. It’s Much, Much Worse

    Anyone seeking to gauge the imminent outcome of the international talks over Iran’s nuclear program being held in Vienna should take a look at reports from late January that three top U.S. diplomats had quit—largely in protest over the direction set by U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley, who serves as the U.S. government’s chief negotiator.

    Having served for two years in former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s Iran Action Group, I knew that this development was tantamount to a public cry for an intervention. Such resignations—not of conservative dissenters, but of career staff and President Joe Biden’s own political appointees—should have been cause for Biden or Secretary Antony Blinken to recall Malley and investigate. Their failure to do so is a sign either of a troubling lack of attention to the talks, or else the possibility that Malley—who served in the same capacity under President Barack Obama when the first Iran deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was originally negotiated and signed—has been given a free hand to negotiate whatever he wants, as long as he gets Iran to sign.
     
  7. MGB ROADSTER

    MGB ROADSTER Banned

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    The United States under Democratic rule has lost the values of a true friendship, unfortunately it has abandoned Afghanistan, the Kurds and has no problem abandoning its ally Israel for short-term interests.
    Those who will pay the price for a nuclear Iran are the Gulf states, the Middle East and Europe.
     
  8. Toggle Almendro

    Toggle Almendro Well-Known Member

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    That is incorrect. Israel has the ability to drop 5000-pound bunker busters on targets in Iran.


    Yes there is. There is nothing about U-235 that prevents using it in a complicated device.


    That is incorrect. The 500 kiloton Mk18 bomb tested in Ivy King in 1952 was 100% fission.


    That is incorrect. The 500 kiloton Mk18 bomb tested in Ivy King in 1952 was 100% U-235.


    Tritium is always used along with deuterium. There is no point in using tritium without the presence of deuterium.

    The US still uses tritium. We use it in all of our current nuclear weapons.


    That is incorrect. Plenty of implosion bombs used pure U-235.

    One example of a U-235 implosion bomb is the 500 kiloton Mk18 bomb tested in Ivy King in 1952.

    There were also pure U-235 cores available for the Mk4, Mk5, Mk6, and Mk7 implosion bombs.

    All Pakistani nuclear weapons that use U-235 are implosion devices.


    Non-nuclear-weapons states often have conventional armed forces.

    Non-nuclear-weapons states often have large urban areas.

    Both conventional armed forces and large urban areas can be destroyed by nuclear weapons.


    So consider the widespread conventional bombing of Iran to be a pleasant indulgence then. I would find it enormously funny.

    Think of bombing Iran as being like having sex with a supermodel. You may not need to do it, but if the opportunity presents itself, why wouldn't you?


    If anyone challenges our survival, we can nuke them until they do not exist.

    Once the challenger no longer exists, they will no longer threaten our survival.


    I have not made any mistake.

    I do not care if the world needs us or not.


    No we won't. Our stealth bombers will fly home, reload, and then fly more missions, over and over, until all targets have been destroyed.
     
  9. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    It looks like the Biden Administration will do anything to get an agreement.

    U.S. weighs deal to remove Iran's IRGC from terror blacklist

    The Biden administration is considering removing Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from a terror blacklist in return for a public commitment from Iran to de-escalation in the region, three Israeli officials and two U.S. sources tell me.

    Why it matters: An agreement to restore the 2015 nuclear deal is nearly complete, but Iran's demand that President Biden reverse Donald Trump's decision to designate the IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization is a key remaining sticking point.
     
  10. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    So the Biden Administration won't sanction Russia where Iran is concerned?

    New Iran Agreement Would Let Russia Cash in on $10 Billion Contract To Build Nuclear Sites

    Russia’s top state-controlled energy company is set to cash in on a $10 billion contract to build out one of Iran’s most contested nuclear sites as part of concessions granted in the soon-to-be-announced nuclear agreement that will guarantee sanctions on both countries are lifted.

    Russian and Iranian documents translated for the Washington Free Beacon show that Rosatom, Russia’s leading energy company, has a $10 billion contract with Iran’s atomic energy organization to expand Tehran’s Bushehr nuclear plant. Russia and the Biden administration confirmed on Tuesday that the new nuclear agreement includes carveouts that will waive sanctions on both countries so that Russia can make good on this contract.

    "We, of course, would not sanction Russian participation in nuclear projects that are part of resuming full implementation of the JCPOA," State Department spokesman Ned Price confirmed on Tuesday, referring to the original 2015 nuclear accord. Russia’s foreign ministry made a similar statement on Tuesday, saying that "additions were made to the text of the future agreement on JCPOA restoration to ensure that all the JCPOA-related projects, [especially] with Russian participation, as well as Bushehr [nuclear power plant], are protected from negative impact of anti-Russian restrictions" by the United States and European Union.
     
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  11. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    This new Iran deal is so important to the administration that Russia is becoming our bestest buddies again.

    Iran Deal Includes ‘Quid Pro Quo’ To Enrich Russia, House Republican Says


    "The Free Beacon first reported last week that Iran has a $10 billion contract with Russia's state-controlled energy firm, Rosatom, that will see Moscow construct new portions of Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant. Trump administration sanctions stopped this work, but as part of the new nuclear agreement, these sanctions will be lifted so the work can go ahead. Already, the Biden administration has waived certain sanctions that blocked Russia, China, and others from engaging in nuclear work with Iran."
     
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  12. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    Will Biden claim terrorist Iranian group isn't a terrorist group?
    The "Revolutionary Guards killed hundreds of U.S. troops in Iraq and supply weapons and training to proxy forces in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Over the past two decades, the U.S. has introduced an array of sanctions against the IRGC and individuals in the force over its ballistic missile program and terrorism and human rights violations."
     
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  13. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Why Iran wants the IRGC to be removed from the Terror blacklist...to commit assassinations in the US of course!

    Iran Doubles Down on U.S. Assassination Campaign Despite Biden Offer on Terror Designation

    Iran won’t back down from its assassination campaign targeting former U.S. officials over the killing of General Qasem Soleimani, a top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander said.
    IRGC navy commander Alireza Tangsiri said that Iran would not accept a deal whereby the U.S. would lift terrorism sanctions in exchange for Iranian pledges to “give up on avenging Soleimani,” Reuters reported yesterday. Tangsiri, Reuters added, seemed to be speaking specifically about Iran’s demand that the U.S. remove the IRGC from its Foreign Terrorist Organization list, which bans members of the group from entering the U.S.
     
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  14. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Nothing to see here...literally.

    Report: Iran Turns Off 2 of UN Nuclear Watchdog's Cameras

    TEHRAN, Iran — Iran turned off two surveillance cameras of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog that monitored one of its atomic sites, state television reported Wednesday.

    The report did not identify the site, but it appeared to be a new pressure technique by Tehran as Western nations seek to censure Iran at a meeting this week of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

    The Iranian state television report described the two cameras as monitoring “OLEM enrichment levels and flowmeters.” That appeared to refer to the IAEA's Online Enrichment Monitors, which watch the enrichment of uranium gas through piping at enrichment facilities.

    Iran currently is enriching at both its Fordo and Natanz underground nuclear sites.
     
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  15. RoccoR

    RoccoR Well-Known Member Donor

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    RE: Iranian Nuclear Negotiations are going exactly as you would suspect
    SUBTOPIC: What is the Meaning of This!!
    ⁜→ Zorro, et al,

    (EXORDIUM) While the set of protected persons hears the name "terrorism" quite frequently, it has become a “household label.” Too many industries using the term have failed to prevent the "household label" from being applied to any incident or set of results from being misinterpreted and distinguishable from any other asymmetric event. The term "terrorism" has become almost entirely useless.

    (COMMENT)

    No matter how distasteful this might sound, the "Quds Force (QF)" (for all practical intent) is roughly equivalent to the US "Special Operations Command (SOCOM)." Once you cancel out all the flowery language, the two are left with a focus on unconventional warfare and asymmetric operations and activities. A few slight differences between the two → is that QF and the SOCOM:

    ◈ The QF is smaller and less well equipped than SOCOM activities.
    ◈ The QF is more aggressive in the expanse of operations and swathe width of its projects in the field of operations.
    ◈ The QF does NOT have as big of a tactical footprint as SOCOM. As a generalization, only a remote support base has some limited tactical characteristics.
    ◈ It is NOT uncommon to find the QF involved in low level black-market (nothing of a national security interest) and or small businesses with storefronts in the open.
    ◈ The QF actively seeks-out and engage the mission and explotable conditions to its operational or survival benefit.

    (COMMENT)

    In your commentary, I think that you are referring to the QF → relative to the missions they are tasked to perform. While the QF is technically a tentacle of the IRGC, its compartmentalization makes it almost autonomous, reporting to Beit Rahbari.
    The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is much more traditional. The QF is just one of four or five elements that comprise the IRGC. However, the Islamic Republic Army of Iran (IRAI) is an entirely separate operating activity from that of the IRGC. These various designations are not interchangeable.


    [​IMG]
    Most Respectfully,
    R
     
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2022
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  16. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Shocker.

    Khamenei adviser says Tehran 'capable of building nuclear bomb'

    Tehran is technically capable of making a nuclear bomb but has yet to decide whether to build it, a senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told Al Jazeera's Arabic service on Sunday.

    Tehran will also directly respond against Israel should its security be targeted, the report says citing the advisor.

    "In a few days we were able to enrich uranium up to 60% and we can easily produce 90% enriched uranium ... Iran has the technical means to produce a nuclear bomb but there has been no decision by Iran to build one," Kamal Kharrazi said.
     
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  17. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

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    IOW, Iran will soon have nukes and use them.
     
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  18. RoccoR

    RoccoR Well-Known Member Donor

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    RE: Iranian Nuclear Negotiations are going exactly as you would suspect
    SUBTOPIC: What is the Meaning of This!!
    ⁜→ Ddyad, et al,

    This is the 21st Century. Any university in any country with reasonable access to modern-day physics programs has the capability to assemble a nuclear weapon. It is a matter of Project Management, gathering the necessary tools, doing the proper research, and dedicated funding.

    (COMMENT)

    It has been (for example) nearly 30 years since AQ Khan offered to proliferate assistance among the more troublesome 3D World Countries. This talk about "technically capable of making a nuclear bomb" is to advance both domestic and international political agendas. But it changes nothing in terms of the actual military threat. In fact, you would be hard-pressed to formulate an argument that making such a move somehow helps these countries.

    [​IMG]
    Most Respectfully,
    R
     
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  19. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

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    IMO, Iran's leaders will be inclined to nuke Israel even though it would lead to the virtual destruction of Iran.
     
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  20. DennisTate

    DennisTate Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    On the plus side......
    Biden is setting the stage for the total annihilation of America's Democratic Party in the 2022 and 2024 elections........

    I actually ran into a fascinating idea that I do like....... that fits with ancient Jewish predictions of the ushering in of the Era of Moshiach. Apparently some sort of White Donkey is involved....... Could this White Donkey be a totally humbled U.S.A. Democratic Party that actually seeks for Moshiach / the Jewish Messiah?????????


    http://www.politicalforum.com/index...iah-son-of-joseph-and.581191/#post-1073111325


     
  21. RoccoR

    RoccoR Well-Known Member Donor

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    RE: Iranian Nuclear Negotiations are going exactly as you would suspect
    SUBTOPIC: The infallibility of the Supreme Leader
    ⁜→ Ddyad, et al,

    The taking of an action by a government's actual probability for self-destruction is a matter of political depression in a very significant sector percentage within the general population. And while Iran has a number of dyed-in-the-wool political and/or religious actors that would (if in their ability) consider taking an action that might lead to the destruction of the nation. But we are relatively lucky in that perspective.

    (COMMENT)

    The Shiite clerical establishment is inside the framework of the infallible Supreme Leader.

    Iran's system of an infallible Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Khamenei) emanates from the Holy City of Qom. And it is a city unlikely to survive an engagement that involves a nuclear exchange on the authority of the leadership in residence. The changes that would be necessary for the Iranian government's mood, energy, and ability to function would br facing a serious challenge. And while the entirety of the government might speak and act in such a way, they are unlikely to make such political moves that would jeopardize their social, economic, and political standing.

    [​IMG]
    Most Respectfully,
    R
     
  22. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

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    Is it safe to assume that religious fanatics do not believe they can count on divine protection?
     
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  23. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    It is finished.

    US says it won't ‘waste time’ on Iran nuclear deal

    The Biden administration says it will not "waste time" on trying to revive talks with Iran regarding its dormant nuclear deal in light of Tehran’s brutal crackdown on antigovernment protesters and its support of Russia in its war against Ukraine.
     
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  24. MGB ROADSTER

    MGB ROADSTER Banned

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    It is a waste of time.
    All means are valid to prevent the Ayatollahs from controlling nuclear weapons of mass destruction.
     
  25. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    It's likely that horse is already out of the barn.
     

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