New simulations suggest we may be able to reopen almost everything. But only IF...

Again, I have done my research. I don't need my intelligence continuously insulted as if I haven't because it doesn't fit a current narrative.

The reason we haven't yet engaged in herd immunity is because the unknowns about the virus are scaring people, despite the fact that the total number of recoveries is not far off from being half the total of confirmed cases in the US. As a country, we have to develop some sort of immunity before a vaccine is made. Full fledged herd immunity can be achieved once we get a vaccine, but until then we have to take the risk and develop some sort of immunity. We aren't looking at any potential vaccine until the fall, or early 2021 and we cannot continue playing defensive with the masks and the distancing until then. For the strength of the nation, our economy is paramount even if the journey to recovering the economy is painful and leaves a lot mourning.

 

It's been well past 14 days, and I have my temp taken every morning, it never reads close having a fever. This gives me a good idea that I don't carry the virus, or if I did carry the virus at one point in time, I've developed at least some sort of short-term immunity to it. You're right, it is about We The People, which is why businesses cannot continue to be closed and promote masks as the only solution.

 

In that case, the people that are more likely to die from contracting COVID can stay home while those with a higher chance of recovery can go to the mall, the theater, the restaurants, the bars, the grocery stores, I did suggest that at one point in time in this thread....

I'm fine with people having their own sense of safety, the issue arises when that idea of safety is imposed on me, and a government expects me to comply with their idea of safety. Safety in this sense in objective, not subjective. We don't need to be tracked, that is a basic infringement on ones right to privacy. But we do desperately need to be more aggressive with this virus, which is why I proposed herd immunity in the first place before hair was lit on fire. People can take comfort in the fact more Americans have recovered than died from COVID, in fact much more. That should, in part, reduce the terror of leaving your home.

 

I agree with the opinion of the courts with respect to restrictions on essential liberty due to the Pandemic.

This does not make you "appeal to authority" fallacy - an less of an appeal to authority.

Further .. your claim that "Public Safety" in general necessarily overrides the constitution is simply false.

 

They've done a great job with all their simulations so far.

 

You started with two contradictory statements. If there is no shortage of antibodies, as you seem to say in your first sentence, who cares if the flue vaccine was developed because "enough" got infected? How many do you want to infect of Covid 19 before you consider it "enough"? But if there is not "enough" already, then why do you deny claiming that there's a shortage?

Let's jump to something else because this doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

If there is anything you need to pay attention to is this. I have said it again and again. I guess you don't read it. So please read the following:

Nobody recovers from COVID!!!

Do I have your attention now?

Good! So let me qualify that statement. Over half the people who are hospitalized suffer serious health problems for life. Many who are not hospitalized suffer consequences. Even people who are asymptomatic. Especially children. But of people who show symptoms, the consequences outlive the virus. Many people have died days or weeks after they were declared "free of the virus". Some because the virus aggravated a previous heart condition, or respiratory issue. So the death is registered as cardiac arrest or pneumonia. But they would be alive if they had never been infected. And we're not even counting how they are affected financially or psychologically. This is a very traumatic experience. The disease is excruciatingly painful for most. Only about 30% (or 35%... can't remember but there is a thread with the exact data I opened) of workers who are diagnosed have been able to return to work.

And to obtain herd immunity, 60% of the population would have to be infected. But you can spend years and you simply will not be able to find 60% of the population who is willing to be exposed Sure... you're willing. And if you managed to convince every single hard-core Trump supporter to agree to be exposed, that would be about 30% to 35% of voters. Which means about 5% of the population. And then they need to expose their children! Trump would have no problem with that. So I'm sure many of his faithful would follow "the prophet's" teaching. But how many do you actually think would line up and make their children line up on the kool-aid line?

I have a hard time getting you to read what I write. But I hope you read all of the above.

But they aren't. As I said, for herd immunity to take hold, 60% of the population would need to be infected. But only 7.5% of the population of Sweeden has even been exposed. Most refuse to stand in the kool aid line to see if they and their children are "the lucky ones" who don't catch it (because, as I showed above, not dying is not much of an incentive). And yet, Sweeden has one of the highest per-capita death rates of Covid 19 in the world. Even the guy who designed the "herd immunity" strategy is backing down
https://www.livescience.com/results-of-sweden-covid19-response.html

The alternative is simple: wear the F***k your mask!!!

 

How about the people who don't have the pre-existing heart conditions, or asthma? Those are the people I talk about. The people who have pre-existing conditions I am not surprised would have died days or weeks after they were declared "free of the virus." The virus aggravated the condition, but the virus itself didn't kill them, because they recovered from the virus. Their pre-existing condition killed them, but heart failure isn't as sexy as death from COVID.

I don't think it would be hard to get 60% of the population onboard, especially when you couple it with the facts that A. continuing to stay locked down, or locking down again, isn't economically feasible and B. the rate of suicide in the US has jumped since the lockdown went into effect. People are becoming desperate to get back to normalcy again, and people are willing to take risk in times of despair. You get bored working on home projects, you're tired of cooking, your rent and mortgage payments are growing, the water company is threatening to turn your water off if you don't pay due to being jobless, given that life itself is a risk, the risk of getting infected with COVID is less scary, which at least 800,000 Americans have recovered from, a few hundred thousand from being half the number of confirmed cases in the states. Much higher than the number of those who have died, which is at 117k. 800k Americans and you don't think, even with passive immunity, they wouldn't reocver?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

And not all of them would be Trumpers. What Sweden has done correctly, however, is insisted the personal responsibility be put on the people instead of having the government decide for them. They can wear masks if they want, they're not forced to. They can eat out, they're not forced to eat at home. It's about choice, and that is what people opposed to the government doing the guesswork for them want. Choice. You do what you want to feel safe, I'll do what I want to live.

Push come to shove, some may see how other countries are reopening faster than the US, and may leave the US altogether.

 

From that moment on, many of them will have them. And if not those, others: blood clots, infertility, PTSD, immunodeficiency, ....

BTW Correction: about half the people with jobs who had Covid 19 have returned to work.

Few people with pre-existing conditions are likely to survive. if not during the episode, not long thereafter. It's unknown right now because... the virus has only been around for 6 months. So the consequences could be even worse in the long term even for people without pre-existing conditions. More and more children who were infected and were declared clear of the virus are coming up with some new disease that medical investigators haven't even defined yet. Much less know how to treat. And they definitely don't know what the long-term consequences will be. Infertility is the one that they have determined is very likely. But they don't know much more than that yet.

Small comfort to their family. They're still dead.

You mentioned Sweden. Only 7.5% have been exposed. Much less infected. If by some miracle you were to find 60% of the U.S. population who either didn't care to put family members in danger, or who were complete idiots.... it appears it would take way more than it takes to develop a vaccine. So all you're accomplishing is to harm the economy more than you would by just following the guidelines, and killing hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of people.

Look... This is ridiculous. It's not going to happen. Period! You are definitely not going to accomplish it on your own. To even have the possibility, you would need a government policy. I'm pretty sure that at least you understand that that is not going to happen in this Union of 50 States and a handful of protected territories.

So reality is reality. The only thing that going on a one-man (or million-men) crusade would be to make many many people dead or sick for life.

In a sane government, actions that ultimately will almost certainly result in the death of people would not be allowed. But we don't have a sane government. So I can't do anything about it. I can only hope that people with no regards to the life and health of others don't do too much damage.

What I do to feel safe is explain to others that they are putting the life of people at risk and try to remove the ignorance that the Trump administration and his followers have promoted. Since you authorize me to do what makes me feel safe... well... that's it!

 

Getting the economy back up and running is also about "we the people" - and keeping up current social distancing practices is not allowing this to happen.

 

Unfortunately, you’re correct. It would take a government based policy to get 60% to comply. There’s literally nothing Trump could do I would agree with, but if he decided to steamroll Fauci and call for nationwide herd immunity, that would be a rare exception to get the country moving. Cuomo Polis, Whitaker, Abbott, DeSantis, Murphy, Wolf, none of these people are thinking straight in what is right for their citizens. Someone should tweet Trump the idea, lord knows he reads them.

I was serious by the way. Someone should pressure Trump to do herd immunity, maybe it will be the first sane thing the man does in nearly four years.

 

Look around you! Social distancing and wearing a mask are what is allowing this to happen.

But the danger is that dopes who don't wear masks will shut down the economy again. Not because the government mandates it. But simply because people either get sick or refuse to go out to avoid getting sick. Which causes recession.

Commons wisdom used to be that, in general, right wingers were more knowledgeable about the economy than left wingers. Not that they were necessarily correct but just that most of them knew more than the majority of left wingers. But that most definitely did not carry over when they had to give up the Republican Party to the Trumpists.

 

You were right the first time when you said that it's not up to Trump. And it's not up to Cuomo or any of those either. You just can't force people to stand in line to expose themselves and their children to a deadly virus. Period! And a "partial" herd immunity through infection is absurd. It will produce hundreds of thousands more dead and sick for life people, and you'll have nothing to show for it in the end.

So if we agree that that is not going to work, the next best thing is to wear a mask and try to NOT infect anybody until we have the vaccine.

 

someone responded to me saying - we never locked down properly to begin with - and I agree ..

but one thing is also clear - the longer we keep locked down - the more damaged will be caused by the economic Tsunami which has yet to hit - and with it a whole lot of death and destruction.

this has nothing to do with being a Trumpist - it does have something to do with being an adherent to classical liberalism if you wish to have that conversation.

It is about assessing the position on the board and making the best moves. Being in mask wearing mode entails much more than folks wearing masks. It is about the level of lockdown we are at. Opening up restaurants to 50% capacity - following all the new rules - and having people sitting around in masks - is not going to cut it. Do this and we will lose 50% of the restaurants in a relatively short period of time - mom and pop operations being hit the hardest.

Tourism needs to be opened up - hotels need people traveling - and so on. How long can airlines survive under current conditions ? Some running at 10% and hoping to get to 30% ..

How many people work in and around the Hotel industry in New York ? and every other major city ? and how long did you want this to go on for ?

 

Well... I don't know where you live. In Florida cases were going down pretty good. Until our idiot governor re-opened. Now we're worse than we were back then.

On a sidenote... a piece of advice: Don't come to Florida. Our governor's seriously trying to beat NY's number of infected.

You didn't complete your phrase. More damage than what? What damage is caused by this "economic Tsunami" and how does it compare to this... whatever it is you didn't mention. In terms of dead, economic impact, etc. Please show your numbers.

Not sure I understand. I don't know anything in classical liberalism that wants more people dead just for the sake of seeing them dead. I know Robespierre wasn't the nicest guy. But I don't think sending people to the guillotine is part of the economic system.

I agree. In Florida we're open at 20%. And infections are worse than they were when we were at 100%

But the infections are not the fault of restaurants. It's Memorial day weekend beach-goers, bikers, ... even peaceful protesters.... as well as hard-headed dopes who refuse to wear masks.

Open them more than that, and we're likely to lose mom and pop themselves. Hey! So long as the restaurant survives... who cares, right?

Seriously: all that is accomplishable. But people need to wear masks and keep social distancing. If they don't, you kill mom and pop and over a million Americans. And the economy stagnates for who-knows how many years....

The trick is to remain healthy as long as we can. Just to give labs time to develop the vaccine. I'm convinced we'll have it available just before the end of the year. Do this, and by this time next year, we could be well on track to recovering. Don't do this, and expect the economy to suffer for many years before it can be fixed. But this is the moment to do it. Every week we don't means more time shut down (partially or completely) and more moms and pops dead or with heath issues that will preclude them from running a restaurant at ANY occupancy.

 

First off - no you don't kill your mom - pop or anyone else unless they are quite old and near death - for the most part. Yes there is 1 in 300,000 that is allergic to a bee sting - very susceptible to this virus.

I agree to give the labs time to get to a vaccine but "how much time" ? I posted a link stating that for every 1% increase in unemployment - 40,000 die .. and that is in a normal situation. Couple this with serious economic hardship and you will have many more.

Going on for many years ? - you will kill way more due to economic hardship than from Corona.

Lets hope for a vaccine or sufficient treatment that we get there sooner.

 

Can you back up your claim few people with pre-existing conditions are likely to survive?

 

Being tired of the 'woe is me/us' talk is childish. Grow up. You may be infected. You may be asymptomatic. If you are not wearing a mask in public, you may be infecting others who don't have your marvelous immune system.

 

We can recommend people wear a mask, not force them. This is America, choice is allowed here. This concept is t one that is hard to grasp, you want to wear a mask? Fine, but don’t force me to in order to get groceries. We don’t force people to have abortions, we don’t force people not to drink, there’s a reason prohibition failed, because people will not tolerate not having a choice. Choice is a necessary part to being American, it’s a simple concept that stands the test of time.

Not wearing a mask isn’t going to keep businesses from opening, because one simply isn’t a loaded gun waiting to pull the trigger on someone else’s life. Herd immunity can work once you get it explained to enough people convinced the pros outweighed the cons. Sweden did one thing correctly, and left it to the people to make their own choice (Sweden seems to be more free than America at the moment) instead of having a nanny state tell them what to do. I’ll also credit herd immunity for helping Norway out of its mess with the swine flu in 2010.

If you can agree Americans have a choice in this, we might be getting somewhere here. Wearing a mask isn’t going to change a damn thing when your state has been rendered oppressive.

 

There are tons of “what if’s” in life, but we would never leave our homes if we let them get to us. I’ve been on the front lines since March and I don’t know how many times this needs to be explained. If I’m. It chilling, coughing, showing signs of a fever, having difficulty breathing 90 plus days out, it’s pretty safe to assume I’m not asymptomatic, but that I’m not infecting others as well. If Fauci is ready to stop contradicting himself and broadcasting the worst case scenarios possible all the time, maybe I’ll begin to listen to him again but not until then. You wouldn’t want your doctor just bringing you bad news all the time, why should America be any different?

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...d-19-than-otherwise-healthy-people-cdc-finds/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...erly-those-heart-disease-diabetes/3191805001/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

 

By your own admission you never wore a mask so you could have been asymptomatic and infecting other people during that period but you still don't get it?

Sad!

 

I uphold your right to your fallacious OPINION on this matter.

You BOGUS allegation and asinine STRAWMAN are IGNORED for obvious reasons.

Have a nice day!

 

Complete and utter NONSENSICAL drivel disproven by REALITY.

Went shopping yesterday and everyone was wearing masks and social distancing. My hands were sanitized when I entered each store and stood apart on the marked lines at the checkout.

Obviously you are WRONG about "current social distancing practices" not allowing the economy to get back up and running again.

 

Can you back up the claim few with pre-existing conditions are likely to survive?

 

Why is there NO vaccine against the Common Cold?

Why is there NO "herd immunity" for the Common Cold?

Why does the Flu vaccine need to be changed EVERY YEAR and even then it is not fully effective?

Why is there NO "herd immunity" for the Flu?

The odds of having an effective vaccine against Covid19 are very long.

There is no such thing as "herd immunity" for a VIRUS that constantly MUTATES such as the Common Cold and the Flu!

There is only ONE EFFECTIVE MEANS for STOPPING the Covid19 virus and that is Tracking, Tracing and Quarantine.

There is only ONE EFFECTIVE MEANS REDUCING the RISK of being INFECTED by the Covid19 virus and that is Social Distancing, Wearing Masks and Sanitization.

If you seriously want the economy to restart then you embrace what WORKS and stop insulting the intelligence of other people with crap like "herd immunity" and "playing defense".