Rebel offensive in Syria gains ground as Russian military presence fades.

Not necessarily. A Sunni regime will cut off Iran from Hezbollah if Hezbollah fights them. But if they don't, I think they'll make a deal. It should be noted that Iran made deals with the Sunni taliban in Afghanistan when their interests intersected. Hezbollah and Sunni jihadists have a common enemy in Israel. And Hezbollah (Shiite) has been arming Hamas (Sunni) for a long time. Also, Iraq has a majority Shiite population and a Shiite-led government that is friendly with Iran. I could definitely see Iran hoping to strike a peace deal with Sunnis in Syria, a part of which being that they do not extend their war into Iraq like ISIS did in the 20-teens.

 

I think it's possible that the Assad government could fall in days, not weeks.

It appears that the Syrian army doesn't want to fight.

When the Assad government falls, watch for bloody infighting among the rebel factions to begin. I think there's a good chance that there is going to be chaos, much loss of life, a refugee crisis, and an unpredictable outcome. Meanwhile, the U.S. still has troops in Syria working with the Kurds. One thing I'm pretty sure of is that the Biden administration isn't going to do anything and is going to simply hand it off to the incoming administration.

 

Yep....I suspect it'll be up to Trump to try sort it out.

And yes....Assad may fall in days....like before Christmas even.

And it will get ugly after that. A refugee crisis before New Years....wonderful.

 

Lots of Sunni money available.

 

We shall see.

 

Not going to place bets on them doing so. For example the Taliban issued similar public statements about things like respecting the woman's rights etc during their advance into Kabul. Once they were security in control? On the other hand all the rebel groups in Syria have had more than enough examples shown too them of what happens to a country when you don't co-operate/work members of the other large religious or ethnic minorities. Plus Turkey is the main backer of lead rebel group in the coalition and it has and will continue to have a strong interest in stabilizing Syria and keep Iran out.

 

Try to take away people's democracy and eventually they'll reclaim it by force.

Syria: Islamist rebels encircle government-held Damascus | DW News

 

I honestly don't know what 'better' will look like in this context. Unlike the guy you are talking to I'm not in the business of cheering mass murderers like Assad (and Putin), but I'm not convinced the replacements will be any improvement. The one thing I'm most certain of is that even if Assad falls the fighting won't end soon. None of the 'victors' seem like they will be keen on sharing the country for various reasons. To plunder a better writer than me, this may not be the beginning of the end, but just the end of the beginning.

I agree that Hezbollah will be cut off & will find it harder to rebuild its strength, which can only be a good thing for the region. Might be the only major bright spot from all of this.

 

Assads end may be near....what happens next is a question.

Is Europe or wherever ready for more refugees?

 

With the wider Sunni/Shia conflict still raging in Yemen I suspect the Sunni backers of Assad's enemies won't be in much of a mood to let Hezbollah reconstitue rapidly. There will be a LOT of people close to the likely new regime who have a big axe to grind on that score. If there are deals to cut with Iran/Shia forces the first in line may be the Alawite minority in Syria itself. It will be interesting ot see who Iran thinks are expendable - I doubt they can save everyone. There may also be a deal to be cut with Iraq over re-taking Kurdish areas, but that probably won't help hezbollah either.

Poking the Israeli bear clearly seemed like a fine idea 12 months ago. Not looking so sharp now. Like a cockroach hezbollah is likely impossible to eliminate, but it may continue in a much diminished state.

 

Homs has fallen, so it seem unlikely Assad can survive. Groups that have been underground for years have suddenly stood up their forces ad the Syrian Army melts. Even if Iran & Russia wanted to intervene it isn't clear they can reverse things at this point. Perhaps they can prop up an Alawtie enclave on the coast....or not.

The refugee situation isn't clear. Many of those now in Turkey may either be able to return or will be returned. I'm not convinced Turkey will be keen to take a wave of Alawite refugees and only so many can come by sea. Lebanon may get lumped with the problem yet again.

 

The Russians' war in Ukraine has sapped their ground forces. I don't think Russia can stop this. Hezbollah has been weakened by its war on Israel. It was the perfect time for the Syrian rebels to suddenly go on the attack.

 

Syria will be a better place without Assad, and a Sunni regime will cut Iran off from Hezbollah.

Yeah ... NO .. the Islamic State .. Strict Sharia - Dark Age Style --- like last time .. under beloved will not be a happy thing for the Christians - minorities .. and well ..even muslims not the right stripe .. nothing like a good pogrom with Abu Mohammed al-Jolani at the helm ..

Not in the habit of cheering on "Mass Murderers" .. like Bibi and Genocide Joe either .. Got Assad beat by a long long mile .. we used to contract out some of our wet work and torture to him right after 911 .. Assad knows what the bad guys look like .. the 911 Terrorists .. Al Qaeda - helped us alot he did..

My how times changed under Obama -- 2012 Al Qaeda is our proxy army against our old Friend Assad .. disagreement over a pipeline .. 30 nation coalition .. funding these nut jobs .. resulted in the formation of a New Islamic State .. our friend above high in the pecking order .. but now we are gonna have him lead a new Islamic State .. and how do you figure that this will be an improvement over Assad ? .. talking from the perspective of a Christian here .. who has been raped or put into forced marriage .. the man tortured and executed in some inventive way ..

Do we not remember the Islamic State ? It was with us for 4 years .. a going concern .. controlled most of Syria .. their antics all over the internet .. "head choppers" these folks.

?? What ?? Iran a peace deal with the new Islamic State .. Don't think so Seth .. It was Iran - Russia - Syrian Army and Hezbollah who defeated the Islamic State .. in 2017. Trump partly finished off the remaining stronghold in Raqqa .. in the US protected Zone .. which includes Idlib where these Islamic State Remnants came from .. protected Assad .. now unleashed against him again.

"A Sunni Regime" ??? ---are you listening to your words .. and first off it is not just a Sunni Regime .. It is an El Saud inspired Salafi Sunni Regime .. Islamist Extremist on Steroids .. proxy Zombies of Brother El Saud .. Syria turned into a new "Islamic State in Syria" ISIS .. how lovely. and while Iran is at it they will make a deal with Israel too .. !! Right !!

 

Damascus has fallen.

Hopefully, this group of rebels can rule as well as they fight.

 

Mainly Turkey, right? I hear they have a lot. Are they ready? Probably not.

Syrian rebels appear to have entered Damascus as regime’s defenses collapse
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/syria-civil-war-12-07-2024-intl/index.html

 

7 min ago
Syrian faction leader lays out possible road map if Assad regime falls
From CNN's Nic Robertson

A Syrian faction’s political leader who attended the 2015 peace talks in Geneva has laid out a possible political road map for if President Bashar al-Assad’s regime completely topples.

Salem al-Meslet is the former president of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, a group of opposition factions that came together in unity with the goal of overthrowing the Assad regime.

He told CNN there would first be a withdrawal of all armed factions outside the cities and only civil police would exist.

The plan would be to “work hard on preserving and protecting all state institutions” and keeping all employees in their positions, Meslet, who was also the Syrian Interim Government president, told CNN.

A transitional body would be in place to lead for a period of six to nine months, followed by elections for a new parliament and civilian leadership.

But given the rapid rise of rebel group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), it’s unclear how much influence this faction will have. HTS was formed out of a former al Qaeda affiliate and is the main group driving the armed opposition now.

In the early hours of Sunday, Rebel forces appear to have entered the Syrian capital of Damascus, one resident told CNN, as the Assad regime’s defenses showed signs of collapsing. A second source familiar with the rebels’ advance said Damascus appears to have fallen militarily.​

Live updates: https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/syria-civil-war-12-07-2024-intl/index.html

 

https://x.com/afpost/status/1865578927931965574?s=61

currently chaos at the airport.

 

From what I can tell, Assad was betrayed by his Generals who ordered the army to stand down without a fight for Damascus.

People taking bets on whether Assad was able to flee.

 

Iran seems to have also pulled out it’s forces prior to the collapse.

 

Part of the problem at this point is just time. Even if there were forces available, how quickly could they be deployed in a way that would matter? The time to fix this was weeks ago and, as you say, outside help has been weakened.

We now seem to be seeing that effect where, at a certain point in the collapse, everyone decides all at once that it is over. Those who hate the regime feel free to attack & those defending it don't want to die in a lost cause. Maybe a coastal Alawite enclave can be created, but that will likely require outside support.

 

Turkey is planning on sending those refugees home, not replacing them with a bunch of Shi'ites.

 

Damascus was surrounded and they had no hope of either winning or being relieved since the Russian's have abandoned them and there other allies (Iran and Hezbollah are also tied down elsewhere). What you do in those circumstances Napoleon? Fight a battle you have no hope of winning and watch while thousands of civilians die pointlessly in the cross fire or surrender on terms?

 

That probably helps to explain why the Generals turned. If their Iranian protectors are bugging out they know they are done for. perhaps they are hoping to save their skins by dumping Assad. Not sure that is going to work. There are LOTS of scores to settle & I doubt the new regime will want a lot of senior guys from the old one hanging about.

Time to hop on a plane....or a boat. I imagine plenty of the senior people here have money put away somewhere safe.

 

Yep, that what the sticking point between Assad and Erdogan. Assad was hated by his people, so he couldn’t let them return. Erdogan wanted the Syrians out who had overstayed their welcome and quite frankly weren’t welcome to begin with.

 

A lot of them probably don't have homes to return to, but I doubt that will be a major impediment ot Erdogan returning them.