Rebel offensive in Syria gains ground as Russian military presence fades.

Erdogan wants a stable border country. Erdogan wants peace in the region. I think the regional powers may step up to the cause. Prevailing peace will always attract people and investment.

 

No, I think the collapse was decided days ago myself.

https://x.com/osintwarfare/status/1865583283817320919?s=61

 

The only way to get reinforce Syria quickly was by air. Syria only has 4 heavy airlift aircraft at best and although Russia has many more air frames (at least on paper) we also know most of them are tied up supporting a certain unpleasantness in Europe. Reinforcing Assad's forces would tie them up for weeks and with Trump taking office? Add to that the only other way of getting relief to Syria is by sea from St Petersburg FGS since the Black Sea is closed off. With the pace of events in Syria being what is? Russia had no chance of turning things around and apparently they knew it within about 72 hours of this attack starting.

 

Assad has fled Syria.

 

Pretty much the same thing has happened before during the battle opening days of the battle against IS when the Iraqi army initially folded like a wet tissue and only came back into the fight when the US rushed in fire support and provided them with backbone. Same thing in Afghanistan. You don't get an effective army when the entire leadership structure of the country is corrupt and its senior officers are mostly place sitters selected for loyalty to the regime rather than competency. You are also correct that it was all over by the time the rebels got to Damascus of course which is why the Generals surrendered there without a fight.

 

Anyone care to guess where?

 

I don’t know.

 

Can’t confirm Assad was on the plane. But that seems like it will be a quick ending.

https://x.com/osintwarfare/status/1865591833063006578?s=61

 

Some of those senior figures may well have value. If the new regime actually does want to make 'nice' with the west (and they many reasons to) then those Assad figures who aren't associated with war crimes in a big way are cards they can trade to western intelligence services. There might well be some potential intel goldmines out there as far knowledge of ongoing and planned Iranian operations in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq goes. That would certainly have value.

 

Can't think of many places that would want him except Iran or Russia. Iran can set him up as the head of a puppet government in exile they can use as an excuse for destabilizing attacks against the new Syrian regime so he has some value there I guess. Russia? May want to demonstrate that they are still loyal to their short list of pet dictators, sorry allies even if they do fall from power. Although that's not much consolation to those allies watching on as Russia demonstrated quite definitively that at least for now if anyone else runs into problems? Then their good friend and faithful ally Russia will probably just cut and run instead of helping because ... they're just little but busy right now.

 

I look forward to the video.
Syrian rebels say they’re in Damascus and looking for Assad
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham said its forces entered the Syrian capital, bringing the rebels one step closer to their goal of overthrowing President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
By Niha Masih, Mohamad El Chamaa and Kelly Kasulis Cho

 

"Unconfirmed reports of an aircraft crashing near Al-Suwayri village, west of Homs. Mapped trajectory of the IL-76T that allegedly carried Assad."

Oh my! Was this an untimely accident? A smokescreen to put people off the trail? A case of the Prigozhin Solution?

 

Prime minister working with HTS. HTS orders troops not to enter government buildings as they are working together with the prime minister . . . this was such a slick and “peaceful” takeover, it seems unreal.

 

I imagine old Pootler's face looks about the same as it did when he heard Ukrainian forces were advancing in Kursk.

 

Syrian rebels closer to toppling Assad regime

 

The Gulf States will provide some funds, but they will also be looked to for hewlp wiht Gaza & Yemen. That well is not bottomless. Erdogan will help too, but Turkey's economy is not in great shape.

Of course, all of this assumes some sort of peace, which is far from guaranteed.

 

Yeah. This required more time than was available even if the means were present. Putin has shown a willingness to cut & run from a losing cause - just ask Armenia.

Hope the Assads like cold winters. A Moscow apartment beckons.

 

Don't disagree with the broad premise, but I reckon a LOT of senior regime figures 'made their bones' in the last 13 years, if not earlier. Not saying no one has deeply bloodstained hands, but plenty do. I'm expecting a few show trials & executions. If they are smart then need to run as far & as fast as they can. If they have money someone will take them.

 

Not slick, just quick. Reminds me of a lot of regime collapses, right down to former senior figures agreeing to help the new boys in order to save their skins. At a certain point no one wants to be the last to die in a lost cause. Doesn't always end well - lets see how many of them are 'missing', in jail or dead in 6-12 months.

 

Syrian Regime on LIFE SUPPORT As Damascus Surrounded!


Good analysis.

 

No. That won’t happen unless the U.S. or Israel invades and demands it.

 

The card that Iran holds is Hezbollah. The deal would be that Hezbollah leaves the new regime in Syria alone. In exchange, the new regime does not export its jihad into Iraq. That's just being pragmatic and benefits both.

The rebels are led by HTS, an Al Qaeda affiliated group. Now that they have deposed Assad, it will be interesting to see if the rebel factions can get along or not. If not, the bloodshed may be just beginning.

Giftedone, I have no illusions about who these rebels are. Okay?

 

Well, that didn’t take long.

Israel has invaded Syria. I wonder how much land they plan to steal this time.

 

What a bizarre statement. Totally detached from reality.

 

They probably plan to secure enough area north of their border to keep their people safe.