Running Newsticker for the War in Ukraine

Ukraine continues to find ways to mitigate the hardships associated with Russia's criminal aggressive war
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Voice of America

https://www.voanews.com › war-forces-switch-to-altern...

2 hours ago — [8/1/24]

Solar panels, battery stations and generators have become allies for Ukrainian homeowners as they start getting ready for another winter of ...
https://www.voanews.com/a/war-force...r-sources-in-energy-rich-ukraine/7725874.html



Ukraine Rushes For Solar Panels As Russia Hits Its Power ...
Barron's

https://www.barrons.com › news › ukraine-rushes-for-s...

Jun 21, 2024 — President Volodymyr Zelensky said this week that all hospitals and schools in Ukraine must be equipped with solar panels "as soon as possible".
https://www.barrons.com/news/ukraine-rushes-for-solar-panels-as-russia-hits-its-power-grid-a600169d

 

yup...these swarm attacks are a bit of an achilles heal in that being civilian facilities that are spread out over large areas and involve highly combustible chemicals they are very hard to defend - it's no different in Ukraine. There is only so much defence you can bring to bear but I imagine the fire brigade is getting a lot of on the job training......

 

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The two people who became my parents while in a refugee camp after WWII had been incarcerated in German forced labor camps in 1943. My future parents ended up in the same labor camp even though they were from different parts of Ukraine. They did not know each other in the labor camps but told the same scenario about the fact that the German and Romanian camp guards almost all disappeared a few days before the U.S. Army lead elements approached. Only the nastiest guards were still “on duty “ as the U.S. Army approached. Friends of my parents who ended us in the same part of the U.S. tell the story about how the women who a few years after the war became my mom was the first one in the camp that went to the gate to find out if the armored vehicles / tanks had a white star- that confirmed they were American and not Soviets/ Russian red stars. A couple close friends of my parents laughed about the fact that my future mom was braver than the guys from the men’s side of the labor camp who did not venture out until after my mom made first contact. The Ukrainians from that labor camp ended up in the same refugee camp soon after the war ended. A sizable group of them at first ended up in the same small city in Connecticut and stayed as lifelong friends sharing get togethers and holidays together. When I was young the stories of the disappearing camp guards and my mom who was first to greet the Americans were told over and over by my parents friends. My mom who was a few short months from getting to 100 was the last to pass away from that group of labor camp / refugee camp survivors.

 

...wow....that's a heck of a story!!

 

On the Russian front lines commanders steal the soldiers' food and the soldiers have to use their cellphones because their commo gear doesn't work. No wonder they're losing.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2, 2024

Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian Joint Forces and Khortytsia Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Andriy Hnatov stressed that Russia is pursuing an effort to force Ukraine to commit its available manpower to ongoing defensive operations in order to prevent the accumulation of Ukrainian resources for future counteroffensive operations.
• Russian Airborne (VDV) and "Dnepr" Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky addressed VDV forces in an article and recorded video on the 94th anniversary of the VDV's formation on August 2, attempting to highlight the VDV's performance in Ukraine as an elite professional force despite the fact that VDV elements are fighting essentially as understrength motorized rifle units in Ukraine.
• Russian authorities arrested the former deputy rear commander of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) Colonel Dmitry Peshkov on August 2.
• The Russian Federation Council passed an updated version of an amendment that will allow commanders to punish subordinates for "gross disciplinary offenses," including the use of personal electronic devices, in frontline areas following significant backlash from Russian milbloggers.
• The Russian Federation Council also passed a series of bills strengthening the Russian government's control over the Russian information space and further restricting the rights of migrants in Russia.
• The pro-Kremlin Moldovan Victory opposition electoral bloc announced its candidate for the October 2024 Moldovan presidential election on August 2.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
• A Russian government official weighed in on ongoing milblogger criticism of Russia's drone production industry.
• A delegation of Kremlin officials visited occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts on August 2 to highlight Russian efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into the Russian Federation. . . .

 

so...finally they seems to have arrived..



and as usual there's that impassioned question......

...and still the answer is no they won't....maybe the question should really be will they make a dent.....answer is still no...not really



not for a couple of years....

 

The battle for air superiority has begun.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3, 2024

Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck four Russian S-400 air defense missile launchers, an S-500 air defense system, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet's (BSF) Rostov-on-Don Kilo-class submarine in occupied Crimea on August 2.
• Ukrainian forces also conducted a series of successful drone strikes against likely military targets in Rostov, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts on August 3.
• The Kremlin reportedly planned to transfer unspecified missiles and other military equipment to the Houthis in Yemen but did not transfer the materiel following diplomatic pressure. Russia's reported plan highlights its growing military partnership with Iran and suggests that Russia likely aims to leverage Iranian proxies to indirectly confront the West and shape Western decision making.
• Putin's willingness to consider supporting the Houthis as they attack Israel and international shipping is part of deepening Russian-Iranian military cooperation and Russia's increasing reliance on Iran for high-precision weapons and components.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Siversk, and Chasiv Yar.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to financially incentivize Russian military service in Ukraine. . . .

 

Re: air superiority

Crimea Airfields Left Without Russian Aircraft After Strikes, Ukraine Says

Newsweek on MSN.com

|4 hours ago [8/04/24]

Ukraine has repeatedly targeted Moscow's air bases in Crimea and in internationally recognized Russian territory.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...rcraft-after-strikes-ukraine-says/ar-AA1ocQgT

 

Russian fuel and air defense are the primary targets.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 4, 2024

click here to read the full report
Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against an oil depot in Rostov Oblast and missile strikes against fuel storage warehouses in occupied Luhansk City on August 4.
• Ukraine confirmed that it has received the first batch of US-made F-16 fighter jets.
• Russian milbloggers responded to the arrival of F-16s by trying to downplay their potential battlefield effects—directly undermining Russian information operations intended to frame the delivery of F-16s and other Western weapons systems as an uncrossable "red line."
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances east of Pokrovsk, west of Donetsk City, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
• The Russian defense industry reportedly continues to produce missiles using Western-sourced components. . . . .

 

IMO, F-16s do not have to even enter Russian airspace to alter the course of the war.

"Ukraine will need to take out Russia's key air defense systems deep behind the front lines to keep its new F-16 fighter jets operational, according to a new analysis, as the U.S.-made aircraft take to Ukraine's skies.

Kyiv will "notably need to continue efforts to target Russian air defense assets within the Russian rear and in occupied Ukraine with Western-provided long-range weapons to enable its use of F-16 jets," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S. think tank, said on Sunday."



Ukraine's F-16 Success Relies on Key Strategy—War Analysts

Newsweek

|55 minutes ago

Ukraine will need to take out Russia's key air defense systems deep behind the front lines to keep its new F-16 fighter jets operational, according to a new analysis, as the U.S.-made aircraft take to Ukraine's skies.
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-f16-target-russia-air-defenses-1934547

 

F-16s. Another 'red line' for Russia crossed. Yet, not a squeak.

 

Another day another red line.


Photos Show Devastation after Ukraine Strikes Russian Airfield Ammo Storage

Newsweek

|6 minutes ago [8/06/24]

Ukraine attacked the Morozovsk military airfield, which hosts Russian tactical Su-27 and Su-34 fighter-bombers.
https://www.newsweek.com/photos-morozovsk-military-air-base-su-34-rostov-1935292

 

Russians seem to have been fibbing about their claimed advances.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a series of cross border raids into Kursk Oblast on August 6.
• Russian milbloggers largely dismissed the supposed Ukrainian raids into Kursk Oblast, and Ukrainian officials have largely yet to comment on the raids.
• Russian Security Council Secretary and former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu heavily overexaggerated Russian advances in Ukraine since mid-June 2024.
• Russian officials continue coordination and military cooperation with Iran ahead of the Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel out of concern for Russian interests in the region. NOTE: a version of this text appears in ISW-CTP's August 6 Iran Update.
• Armenia continues to abstain from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
• Russian forces advanced east of Toretsk.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reportedly issued a formal reply denying a request from the wives of the mobilized Russian personnel to meet with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov. . . .

 

It has been a bad year for Russia under Putin and it is getting worse fast.

www.thesun.co.uk › news › 29731164

Dramatic vids show Ukrainian jets & troops storm into RUSSIA

www.thesun.co.uk › news › 29731164

15 hours ago · DRAMATIC videos show Ukrainian jets and troops storming into Russia as Vladimir Putin fears a key nuclear plant could be seized in the new assault. The Russian tyrant, 71, blasted

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/29731164/ukraine-invades-russia-footage-putin-jets-helicopters/

 

Putin is screaming like a screwed goose in a French pate’ factory that oh my the Ukrainians are committing raids into Russia. Sort calling it unfair. How about the invasion of Crimea and the 2022 invasion of the main part of Ukraine. Speaking of geese what is ok for the goose is ok for the gander. Did Konrad Putin think of that? Apparently not.m

 

one has to wonder at what the US will make of this. Ukraine has hold of the Sudzha Gas Metering station which supplies 50% of Russian gas to Europe so this will be making certain Europeans nervous as there may be chance of severe damage to the facility in the event of a counter-offensive from Russia. Thus, I would expect Putin is on the phone to Biden telling him to reign in the Ukrainians and would imagine certain Europeans are on the Phone to Big Z telling them to calm down. Nobody really...actually wanted Ukraine to threaten Russia to this extent so this is probably going to make for some worried folk.

 

At a minimum this is a black eye for Russian intelligence. Beyond that, Russian destabilization could come into play.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7.
• The Kremlin's response to Ukrainian offensive activities in Kursk Oblast has so far been contradictory, as Russian officials are attempting to balance presenting the effort as a notable Ukrainian escalation with avoiding overstating its potential implications and risking domestic discontent.
• Select Russian milbloggers heavily criticized the Russian military command for not detecting preparations for or preventing Ukrainian offensive operations into Kursk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly used a first-person view (FPV) drone to down a Russian Mi-28 helicopter over Kursk Oblast, indicating that Ukrainian forces continue to successfully adapt their drone capabilities.
• Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov assessed on August 7 that Russian offensive potential will culminate within one and a half to two months, generally consistent with ISW's assessment on current Russia's offensive capabilities.
• Head of the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), Danielle Bell, stated that Russia has tortured 95 percent of Ukrainian prisoners-of-war (POWs) in Russian detention.
• The Moldovan Central Electoral Commission (CEC) announced on August 7 that it would not register the pro-Kremlin Victory electoral bloc in the October 2024 Moldovan presidential election and referendum.
• A Russian court sentenced Andrey Kurshin, administrator of the "Moscow Calling" Russian ultranationalist milblogger Telegram channel, to six and a half years in prison on August 7 for publishing "fake" information about the Russian military.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained positions south of Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces advanced northeast of Siversk, southwest of Donetsk City, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
• Russian Army Combat Reserve (BARS) units continue recruitment efforts. . . . .

 

..it really is!! Russian intelligence, in every sense of the word don't get no better

 

A tually “threatening” Russia in this case is a defensive move by Ukraine. It makes the Russians redeploy forces from other parts and reduces pressure on Ukraine forces.

 

Putin may finally be figuring out what a real "existential threat" looks like.

The Economic Times

Moment when Russian troops surrendered in Kursk, Ukrainian military releases video, watch!Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces released video on Wednesday (August 7) said to show Russian border guards surrendering at the 'Sudzha' border crossing...
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20 minutes ago [8/08/24]
https://m.economictimes.com/news/in...eleases-video-watch/amp_podcast/112382196.cms

 

also if you think about it puts Russia in a very difficult position;
1) The current Russia offensives have been unmercifully punished by Ukraine; massive casualty rates. These offensives are now culminating and would be due wind down in 6-8 weeks so that Russia can take a defensive posture and re-build. This attack now means that those exhausted troops will now have to divert and dig UAF forces out of Russia. UAF by invading Russia can simply move in as far as their supply routes will allow, take up defensive positions and reinforce them which means that once again Russian forces will be going up against UAF prepared positions and start all over again with the high casualty rates - so punishing the attacking troops and denying them time to rest and re-group.
2) It diverts troops from existing offensives and means that those offensive actions will culminate quicker than they would have thus relieving the pressure on the defending UAF forcces.
3) It weakens Putin's domestic position at home. The fight is now firmly on Russian territory and Kursk is only defended by conscripts which Putin has told Russian society that they would not be put in harms way - but now they are...will the conscripts have to be withdrawn?
4) IF they continue to hold the territory then it can be leveraged in any truce negotiations.
Lots of fun this one.....not sure where it's going or when it's going to get there but can you imagine if they head for the nuclear power plant near Kursk....

 

Supporting Putin comes at a cost which Rusia

 

The Ukrainians continue to drive into Russia, and ISW will not help the Russians to figure out what's next. Russian intelligence clearly failed.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8, 2024

Click here to read the full report
Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian cross-border mechanized offensive operations into Kursk Oblast that began on August 6 are continuing as part of a Ukrainian operational effort within Russian territory. ISW will not offer assessments about the intent of this Ukrainian operation in order to avoid compromising Ukrainian operational security.
• Geolocated footage and Russian claims indicate that Ukrainian forces continued rapid advances further into Kursk Oblast on August 8, and Ukrainian forces are reportedly present in areas as far as 35 kilometers from the international border with Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces most certainly do not control all of the territory within the maximalist extent of Russian claims about Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast, however.
• The Kremlin will almost certainly endeavor to retake Russian territory in Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces have seized and stop Ukrainian activity further into Russia, as substantial Ukrainian advances within Russia would be a strategic blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin's decades-long effort to cement a legacy of Russian stability, security, and geopolitical resurgence.
• COA (Course of Action) 1: The Russian military command may decide to use existing conscripts, Federal Security Service (FSB) border guards, Rosgvardia, and other irregular forces already deployed to the international border area to push Ukrainian forces back and defend against the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast.
• COA 2: The Russian military command may decide to use the existing Northern Grouping of Forces deployed along the Russian-Ukrainian border to respond to the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk Oblast.
• COA 3: The Russian military command may choose to redeploy operational reserves that it accumulated for its planned Summer 2024 offensive effort and/or relatively better provisioned and more combat effective frontline units to Kursk Oblast from elsewhere in the theater.
• COA 4: The Russian military command may seek to maintain the forces it currently has committed to Kursk Oblast but could redeploy significant aviation and strike elements to the area in an effort to improve Russia's ability to retake territory.
• The lack of a coherent Russian response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and the reported rate of Ukrainian advance indicates that Ukrainian forces were able to achieve operational surprise along the border with Russia.
• Ukrainian officials have yet to comment directly on Ukraine's ongoing operation into Kursk Oblast.
• US officials noted that Ukraine's ongoing operation into Kursk Oblast is not a violation of US restrictions on Ukraine's ability to strike military targets within Russia's border areas. . . .

ISW will not make forecasts about what Ukrainian forces might or might not do or where or when they might do it. ISW will continue to map, track, and evaluate operations as they unfold but will not offer insight into Ukrainian planning, tactics, or techniques. ISW is not prepared to map control of terrain within Russia at this time and will instead map observed events associated with the Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory as well the maximalist extent of claims and unverified reports about Ukrainian advances. Maximalist claims and unverified reports about Ukrainian advances within Russia do not represent territory that ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces have seized or control. Inferring predictions about Ukrainian operations from ISW maps and assessments that do not explicitly offer such predictions is inappropriate and not in accord with their intended use. . . .

 

I don't blame them.....this is fascinating....I can't for the life of me think what the planned end game here is....there's people getting pretty miffed about the deteriorating situation in Donetsk, there's no sign of the pace of Russian actions changing, same with the other fronts.... are they just sacrificing Donetsk for bargaining territory....would make sense I suppose...

 

Their objectives may be larger than we second-guessers have imagined.