Running Newsticker for the War in Ukraine

Discussion in 'Russia & Eastern Europe' started by Statistikhengst, Apr 11, 2022.

  1. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    upload_2025-1-13_11-11-58.png

    link to upload_2025-1-13_11-13-22.png
     
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  2. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    The struggle continues.
    Ukraine Conflict Updates
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 12, 2025

    Click here to read the full report with maps
    Key Takeaways:


    • The Ukrainian General staff reported on January 12 that Ukrainian forces conducted a high-precision airstrike on the command post of Russia's 2nd Combined Arms Army [CAA] (Central Military District) in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast.
    • South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) confirmed that Ukrainian forces captured two North Korean soldiers during combat operations in Kursk Oblast on January 9.
    • Russian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove directions. . . . .
     
  3. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    The trickiest part is yet to come.
    [​IMG]
    Josh Rogin
    Putin is setting a trap for Trump in Ukraine

    ". . . . The only way to compel Putin to make concessions is to increase the cost of his aggression. This means ramping up military aid to Ukraine, imposing harsher sanctions on Russia and bolstering NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe. Trump, who says he wants a deal, might have to take the long road to get there: recognize Putin’s game, increase support for Ukraine and use U.S. leverage wisely.

    That will take much longer than 100 days. But if Trump can adapt quickly, he might avoid the trap Putin has in store for him."

     
  4. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    ...all this sort of depends on how much the adminstration sees itself scaling back it's role in Europe....any deal will have to be predicated on a security package to protect Ukraine whilst Russia presumably re-constitutes it's forces; there won't be any "peace" deal maybe some bastardised/hybrid cease-fire. In any even, the fundamental objectives of Putin will not change with even the likes of Seb Gorka understand what Putin is. So 100 days.....hmmm not really likely huh.....maybe minimum 2 years? At least 2 years to get all the ducks in a row?? Maybe then he can start to think about "deals"...unless he just throws Ukraine under a bus....which is just a likely....not sure general cornflakes is going to have much input as most of what he briefs will go way over Trumps head.....maybe if he tweets it?
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2025
  5. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    I think the settlement may look a bit like Korea.
     
  6. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    well....I'd be scratching my head thinking...."hmmmm...but who supplies something like...what...350K/400K troops with the associated logistics support /air support etc etc. required to enforce a defensive shield 1,000Km long until......when......Putin invades again!!??"
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2025
  7. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    EU.
     
  8. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Fighting continues.
    Ukraine Conflict Updates
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 13, 2025

    Click here to read the full report
    Key Takeaways:


    • Russian forces recently cut the T-0405 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway east of Pokrovsk and the T-0406 Pokrovsk-Mezhova highway southwest of Pokrovsk as part of their efforts to envelop Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
    • Russian forces likely intend to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in order to force Ukrainian units to withdraw from the towns in future months.
    • Russian state-owned energy corporation Gazprom acknowledged that it is considering reducing the size of its central office staff by 40 percent, indicating that Gazprom may be concerned about the long-term effects that the war in Ukraine and the reduction in Russian gas exports to Europe will have on the Russian gas industry.
    • Russian forces recently advanced in the Kharkiv, Borova, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka directions.
    • South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) reportedly announced that North Korean casualties in Kursk Oblast total roughly 3,000 killed and wounded. . . .
     
  9. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    The Pootster can't afford to appear willing to really negotiate, but DJT will likely compel him.

    Ukraine Conflict Updates
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2025

    Click here to read the full report
    Key Takeaways:


    • The Kremlin remains committed to achieving the original goals of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in any future peace negotiations — namely the destruction of the Ukrainian state, dissolution of the current Ukrainian government, demilitarization of Ukraine, and a permanent ban on Ukraine's future membership in NATO.
    • Patrushev stated that Russia's goals in Ukraine remain unchanged and that Russia remains committed to achieving all of the goals that Russian President Vladimir Putin used to justify the full-scale invasion.
    • Russian officials continue to deny the existence of a Ukrainian identity and state that is independent of Russia as part of ongoing Russian efforts to justify the destruction of the Ukrainian state.
    • Patrushev stated that he believes that only Russia and the United States should engage in negotiations to end Russia's war in Ukraine, and senior Kremlin officials are also questioning the role that European countries could play in such negotiations.
    • The Kremlin will likely attempt to seize on potential future Russian advances into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for informational purposes, but these advances, if they occur, are unlikely to have significant operational impact.
    • Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone and missile strikes against military and defense industrial targets in Russia on the night of January 13 to 14.
    • Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities continue efforts to find a solution to the gas crisis in Moldova as the pro-Russian breakaway republic Transnistria continues to refuse help from Ukraine or Moldova.
    • Kremlin officials are attempting to exploit the energy crisis in Moldova to set conditions to justify future Russian aggression against Moldova.
    • Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor reportedly caused a brief but widespread internet outage in Russia while operating restriction systems of its Sovereign Internet on January 14.
    • Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions.
    • Russia continues efforts to bolster military recruitment efforts by offering financial incentives to those who sign military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). . . .
     
  10. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    so, after all that hoohah and hype.......basically what we all knew about the F-16s in Ukraine.....pretty pointless......



    ......Justin was being very restrained.....in closed lectures he's a lot more candid
     
  11. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    The struggle continues.
    Ukraine Conflict Updates
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 15, 2025

    Click here to read the full report.
    Key Takeaways:


    • Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of January 14 to 15.
    • Ukraine and Russia conducted a one-for-one prisoner of war (POW) exchange on January 15, their first POW exchange in 2025.
    • A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian drone and artillery capabilities are providing Ukrainian tanks with tactical advantages over Russian tanks in unspecified, select areas of the frontline.
    • Transnistrian President Vadim Krasnoselsky announced on January 15 that Russia will soon provide Transnistria with gas as "humanitarian aid" but did not specify the delivery date or method.
    • Armenia continues to enhance its relations with Western partners amid waning relations with Russia.
    • Russian forces recently advanced in the Borova, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk directions.
    • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on January 15 that about 600,000 Russian soldiers are currently operating in Ukraine. . . .
     
  12. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Precursor to NATO interoperability.
     
  13. Monash

    Monash Well-Known Member

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    Perun's latest video is in and its an interesting one. This time it's looking at Ukraine's war material situation from the start of the war and currently before going on to make some rough projections about the situation out into 2025 and beyond. (He did a similar number crunch on the Russians a few videos ago? His general conclusion? For now Russia is managing to maintain numerical superiority (I say 'for now' because it's equipment stockpiles are being steadily emptied) while Ukraine is growing it's level of technical superiority (for now) with both sides facing different specific bottlenecks in 2025.

     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2025
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  14. Robert84

    Robert84 Active Member

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    [​IMG]
    Killed civilians found in a Kursk village liberated by Russian army

    Yesterday, Russian state news agency TASS reported that the bodies of nine killed civilians were found in the Kursk village of Russkoye Porechnoye, which had been previously liberated by the Russian army (see the red arrow on the map).

    According to the squad commander of a motorized rifle regiment, the bodies were found during an inspection of basements:
     
  15. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    More Russian lying.
     
  16. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    The Pootster has been put on notice by DJT. We’ll see whether he’s smart enough to take the opportunity.
     
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  17. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  18. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Original source appears to be a telegram channel:

    https://t.me/s/Alekhin_Telega/12800

    Lots of waffle but I couldn't find the videos. No independent confirmation.

    You need to do better than that.
     
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  19. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Word is that the DJT administration has approved transfer of Patriot systems from Israel to Ukraine.
     
  20. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Russians are escalating in Europe.
    Ukraine Conflict Updates
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 28, 2025

    Click here to read the full report.
    Key Takeaways:


    • The first official Russian delegation arrived in Syria since the fall of the Assad regime on January 28 to discuss Russia's continued use of its military bases in Syria.
    • The Russian military continues to evacuate military assets from the Port of Tartus amid the ongoing Russian-Syrian negotiations.
    • The Russian military likely formed a separate unmanned systems regiment at the military district level in order to augment Russia's unmanned systems capabilities. The creation of this regiment supports the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) recent coordinated effort to establish the Unmanned Systems Forces within the Russian military and centralize control over informal drone detachments.
    • A senior NATO official acknowledged that Russia is escalating a sabotage and destabilization campaign against European NATO member states in Europe to deter further military assistance to Ukraine.
    • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Toretsk and near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
    • The Russian government continues to use its "Time of Heroes" program to appoint veterans of the war in Ukraine to federal government positions as part of wider Kremlin efforts to militarize Russian society. . . .
     
  21. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    The Pootster should consider carefully the message sent by US approval to transfer Patriot systems from Israel to Poland and then on to Ukraine.
    Ukraine Conflict Updates
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2025

    Click here to read the full report.
    Key Takeaways:


    • Kremlin newswire TASS published an interview with Valdai Discussion Club Research Director Fyodor Lukyanov on January 30 entitled "Don't count on big agreements," highlighting the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to shape domestic and global expectations about future negotiations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.
    • Lukyanov stated during the interview that the "main thing" for future peace negotiations regarding Ukraine is "not the territories" but addressing the "root causes" of the war, which Lukyanov defined as NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe in the 1990s and early 2000s.
    • Lukyanov's statements assume that Trump and his administration are weak and more susceptible to being intimidated by the Kremlin's shows of force than the former Biden Administration.
    • People's Republic of China (PRC)-based companies continue to supply Russia with critical materials needed to sustain Russia's war efforts in Ukraine.
    • The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted a resolution on January 28 defining its position on peace in Ukraine, closely echoing the principle of "peace through strength" that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky previously outlined.
    • The US military reportedly recently transferred Patriot missiles from Israel to Poland and is expected to deliver these missiles to Ukraine.
    • Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kharkiv and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove and in the Dnipro direction. . . . .
     
  22. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    More help is coming for Ukraine. Meanwhile Russian capability has declined and the NK's are taking a time out.
    Ukraine Conflict Updates
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 31, 2025
    Click here to read the full report with maps


    Key Takeaways:

    • The United Kingdom (UK), Finland, and Czechia announced several immediate and longer-term military assistance packages for Ukraine on January 31.
    • Russian forces are expanding their salient north of Kupyansk as part of long-term operational efforts to push Ukrainian forces from the east (left) bank of the Oskil River.
    • Elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army (CAA) (Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly leading the Russian effort to expand the salient north of Kupyansk.
    • Elements of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (GTA) (Moscow Military District [MMD]) are also participating in the envelopment of Kupyansk and are attempting to advance east of Kupyansk and to expand the Russian salient south of Kupyansk near Kruhlyakivka likely in order to prepare for advances south of Kupyansk, cross the Oskil River, and pressure Borova.
    • Russian forces appear to be developing and disseminating a doctrinal method for advances throughout the theater that aims to conduct slow envelopments of frontline towns and settlements at a scale that is reasonable for Russian forces to conclude before culminating.
    • The Russian military command has shown that it is willing to commit to operations that could take six to nine months to conclude. Russian commanders are likely operating under the assumption or direct knowledge that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not intend to end the war in Ukraine in the near future.
    • This Russian offensive method is bringing about slow operational maneuver on the battlefield, but these envelopments require significant planning, foresight, manpower, and equipment and do not restore rapid, mechanized maneuver to the battlefield.
    • Russian forces are also intensifying their efforts to close the remaining Ukrainian pocket west of Kurakhove.
    • Moldovan and Transnistrian authorities agreed to accept a European Union (EU) package that includes funding for gas purchases for Transnistria, further limiting Russia’s economic influence over the pro-Russian breakaway republic.
    • Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast amid continued strikes against Russian energy and defense industrial infrastructure.
    • Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
    • Western and Ukrainian officials continue to report that North Korean forces have withdrawn from frontline positions in Kursk Oblast. . . .
     
  23. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Sweden will provide Ukraine with $1.23 billion in aid — its largest support package to date.

    The package includes 16 combat boats, 1,500 anti-tank missiles, 146 trucks, and 200 anti-tank grenade launchers.
     
  24. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Russians targeting Ukrainian civilians.
    Ukraine Conflict Updates
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 1, 2025
    Click here to read the full report with maps

    Key Takeaways:


    • Russian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 31 to February 1.
    • A recent Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian naval drone suggests that Russian forces have developed a new method to offset Ukrainian capabilities in the Black Sea.
    • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. . . .
     
  25. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Russians killed their own.
    Ukraine Conflict Updates
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 2, 2025
    Click here to read the full report with maps

    Key Takeaways:


    • Russian forces reportedly struck a dormitory holding Russian civilians in Sudzha, Kursk Oblast on February 1 as Russian authorities widely attempted to deny Russian responsibility for the strike and blame Ukraine.
    • Russia continues efforts to illegally deport Ukrainian children to occupied Crimea and Russia under the guise of evacuation and rehabilitation programs.
    • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
    • Russian forces continue to forcibly mobilize civilians in occupied Ukraine into the Russian military in violation of the Geneva Convention. . . . .
     

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