Sea Level Rise Is Not a Problem, and Won't Become One Anytime Soon

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by Jack Hays, Feb 7, 2023.

  1. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    No need to worry about SLR.
    Sea Level Is Stable Around The World… The Good News The Media Don’t Want Us To Hear
    By P Gosselin on 7. February 2023

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    “No accelerating sea level rise”… “no correlation between CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and sea level rise”.

    Dr. Jay Lehr, Dennis Hedke

    First appearing at CFACT.

    We have been studying climate change and potentially associated sea level changes resulting from melting ice and warming oceans for a half century. In the 1970s our primary concern was global cooling and an advancing new ice age. Many believe that increasing quantities of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere could result in rising levels of the sea in general. The record does not show this to be true. There is no evidence whatever to support impending sea-level-rise catastrophe or the unnecessary expenditure of state or federal tax monies to solve a problem that does not exist. . . .

    The data and projected trends for these ten well-documented coastal cities point to three conclusions:

    1. There has been no dramatic sea level rise in the past century, and projections show no dramatic rise is likely to occur in the coming century.

    2. There is no evidence to indicate the rate of sea level rise or fall in any of the areas of this study will be substantially different than has been the case over the past many decades.

    3. There is no correlation between CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and sea level rise. The steady but modest rise in sea level predated coal power plants and SUVs, and has continued at its same pace even as atmospheric CO2 concentrations rose from 280 parts per million to 420 parts per million today .[9] . . .
     
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  2. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    The level of lies is rising; sea level is not.
    The Nation Flounders on Miami Sea-Level Rise Story
    UNCATEGORIZED FEBRUARY 8, 2023

    A recent debate in The Nation claimed Miami should either make plans to evacuate from the Florida coast or become the model of adaptation in response to rapidly rising sea levels from climate change and the refugees that will result from it. The story is not just false, it is laughably inept. There is no evidence the United States faces the loss of any major coastal city due to climate change or that climate change has or will create climate refugees. . . .
     
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  3. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    New Study: 88% Of Venice’s Shoreline Is Now Stable Or Expanding As Sea Level Rise Slows Since 1970
    By Kenneth Richard on 9. February 2023

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    Scientists have combined remote sensing data with machine learning to determine the Venice coast “is stable, or mainly subjected to accretion in the period 2015-2019.”
    Venice has been sinking into the sea (subsidence) at a rate of ~24 cm per century since the 19th century.

    Fortunately, in recent decades the regional sea level rise has rapidly decelerated. The sea level rise rate was +2.5 mm/yr from 1872-1969 along the Venice coast, but then from 1970-2000 the sea level rise rate slowed to just +0.7 mm/yr (Munaretto et al., 2012).

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Munaretto et al., 2012
    In the last few years (2015-2019) 83 km of Venice’s considered shoreline has been stable (36%) or growing (52%) in size (Fogarin et al., 2023). Just 5% of the Venice coast has been subjected to erosion.

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Fogarin et al., 2023
    Coastal expansion trends have also been observed in the Aegean Sea along the border between Greece and Turkey. From 1975 to 2021, accretion processes have dominated, allowing the shoreline to expand seaward by about 3 m per year since 2000. There has been a total of 66 m of coastal expansion over this 46-year period (Kilar et al., 2023).[​IMG]

    Image Source: Kilar et al., 2023
    Another new study (Foti et al., 2022) from this region (Calabria, southern Italy) indicates coastal expansion has only begun in the last few decades. Prior to the 21st century the coast had been retreating into the sea. The trend reversal to shoreline advancement has been abrupt.

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Foti et al., 2022
    Net coastal expansion has been ongoing across the globe, not just in the Mediterranean region. The global rate of shoreline growth has been 0.26 m/yr for the 3.5 decades from 1984 to 2019 (Mao et al., 2021).

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Mao et al., 2021
     
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  4. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Hey, Axios, Try Looking at Real Data; It Shows Ice Sheet Melting is not Dangerous

    CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS FEBRUARY 17, 2023
    A recent article in Axios claims that the current rate of global ice sheet melting and sea level rise will rapidly accelerate unless global warming is stopped before it reaches 1.5°C. Axios also claims that even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, sea levels will rise for centuries because of the “delayed response” of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Axios’ claims are misleading at best. Warming, sea level rise, and ice melt is likely to continue regardless of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, as it has been going on for far longer than human emissions have been a factor. There is no evidence that any out-of-control “tipping point” exists or is being approached, nor any evidence rates of sea level rise are increasing. Ice mass naturally grows and shrinks in the north and south poles. . . .
     
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  5. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    New Study: Mid-Holocene Sea Level Was 2-3 m Higher Than Today…Rates Of Rise Reached 80 mm/yr
    By Kenneth Richard on 23. February 2023

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    More evidence emerges that modern rates of sea level rise are approximately 20-50 times slower than natural rising rates occurring during deglaciations.
    In tropical areas coral reef fossils form terraces, or flat surfaces bordered by ascending sloping surfaces. Terraces are formed at or near sea level, so their relative geological presence can be interpreted as reliably precise proxies for past relative sea levels.

    A new study uses fossilized coral evidence from terraces and the elevation of beach rock relative to today to discern sea levels were higher than present from about 7,500 years ago until about 1,500 years ago. Specifically, sea levels were 2.2 to 2.4 meters higher (highstand) than today from 5,500 to 4,200 years ago.

    The primary reason sea levels were so much higher was that the Earth’s surface was significantly warmer than it is today throughout most of the last 10,000 years. The water that has in recent centuries been locked up in ice sheets and glaciers on land inhabited ocean basins as recently as a few thousand years ago.

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Janer et al., 2023
     
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  6. lemmiwinx

    lemmiwinx Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    When property values on Miami Beach begin approaching zero I'll start worrying about sea level change.
     
  7. drluggit

    drluggit Well-Known Member

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    Sea level rise is something that so utterly devastated the world of folks 12K years ago, think hundreds of feet of sea level rise in a very short amount of time (perhaps less than a year). Evidence seems to now suggest that the "flood" happened quickly. Not gradually, or orderly. I look forward to seeing the advances in the data in this area in the near future.
     
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  8. Pieces of Malarkey

    Pieces of Malarkey Well-Known Member

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    Better yet, when Obama's mansions start being swallowed up by the ocean I'll start worrying about sea level change.

    (Not really, I'm nowhere close to an ocean.)
     
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  9. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    New Study: Recent Shoreline Changes To 1100 Pacific Islands ‘Dwarfed’ By Change Magnitudes Of The Past
    By Kenneth Richard on 6. March 2023

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    The reef islands that exist today only emerged from under the sea in the last 1,400 years…and most islands have been growing, not shrinking in size, in the last half century.
    Activists convinced humans are able to exert fundamental control over ocean dynamics claim the rates of sea level rise and modern climate change are so rapid and unprecedented that modern changes are dramatically affecting shoreline movement on low-lying islands.

    But a new study (Kench et al., 2023) assesses the opposite may be true. Recent shoreline changes (±40 m/50 years) are “dwarfed” by the shoreline changes (±200 m/100 years) that occurred throughout previous centuries. Globally, here is nothing “unprecedented” about what has been occurring with reef island shoreline dynamics in recent decades.

    Of the global database of 1,100 Pacific and Indian Ocean reef islands, the “dominant mode of response has been the expansion of islands on reef surfaces (>53%)” over the last half-century. Only 0.3% (3 of 1,100) of islands have experienced “total loss.”

    Of the islands sampled for the study, none are older than 1,400 years. Many are only 300 to 600 years old. In other words, prior to the last millennium, the reef islands that exist today were submerged beneath the sea due to the much higher sea levels of the past.

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Kench et al., 2023
     
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  10. Polydectes

    Polydectes Well-Known Member

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    It's the investors that invest in Florida wouldn't.

     
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  11. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Science Yields Surprises! Island Nations Growing… “Atoll, Island Stability Is Global Trend”!
    By P Gosselin on 7. March 2023

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    Despite what we hear from the media and climate activists, hard scientific findings show that Pacific and Indian Ocean island nations are doing just fine…not at all sinking away.

    [​IMG]

    Sea level rise alarmists are hip deep in exaggeration. Image: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

    IPCC high-end sea level predictions for 2100 are “highly erroneous”.
    Global warming alarmists like to claim that Pacific island nations are on the verge of disappearing – due to rising sea levels caused by polar ice melting due to global warming, which in turn supposedly is caused by rising concentrations of “heat-trapping” trace gas CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels.

    These coral reef island nations risk going under real soon, unless we wean ourselves from fossil fuels soon, they say.

    Coral reef island nations are emerging, not disappearing

    But yesterday Kenneth here presented a new paper appearing in Nature, (Kench et al., 2023), which looks at whether the coral reef islands are in fact seeing unprecedented and undergoing accelerating physical changes that risk outrunning human adaptation measures. The authors analyzed the dynamics of a Maldivian reef island at millennial to decadal timescales.

    Recent changes not unprecedented

    The researchers found that “island change over the past half-century (±40 m movement) is not unprecedented compared with paleo-dynamic evidence”.

    Nothing unusual is happening. The global data suggest that almost all islands are in fact growing, and not disappearing under water like climate alarmists mistakenly believe.

    “Recent shoreline changes (±40 m/50 years) are ‘dwarfed’ by the shoreline changes (±200 m/100 years) that occurred throughout previous centuries,” the study’s authors write.

    89% of all the globe’s islands are stable, or growing!

    Moreover, just 4 years ago, another peer-reviewed publication appearing in a renowned journal found similar results: 89% of the globe’s islands and 100% of large islands have stable or growing coasts! According to Duvat, 2019:

    “88.6% of islands were either stable or increased in area, while only 11.4% contracted. It is noteworthy that no island larger than 10 ha decreased in size. These results show that atoll and island areal stability is a global trend, whatever the rate of sea-level rise.”

    Moreover, Khan et al (2018) found: “Prediction of 4–6.6 ft sea level rise in the next 91 years between 2009 and 2100 is highly erroneous.”
     
  12. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    More Evidence Emerges That Mid-Holocene Sea Levels Were 1.5 to 3 Meters Higher Than Today
    By Kenneth Richard on 9. March 2023

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    Two new studies indicate centennial-scale sea level rise rates ranged up to 29-45 mm/yr during the period between 14,500 and 8000 years ago, when CO2 levels were 250 to 265 ppm.
    Modern global sea level rise rates have been reported to be 1.56 mm/yr for 1900-2018, decreasing slightly to 1.3 to 1.5 mm/yr during 1958-2014 (Frederikse et al. (2020) and Frederikse et al., 2018).

    But from 9000 to 8000 years ago sea levels in the East Vietnam Sea rose 29 meters – from -35 m to -6 m relative to present levels (Thanh et al., 2023). That’s 2.9 m per century, or 29 mm/yr. Sea levels then rose another 7.5 m from 8000 to 6700 years ago. At that time (6700 to 5500 years ago), sea levels were 1.5 m higher than present.

    [​IMG]Image Source: Thanh et al., 2023
     
  13. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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  14. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    New Study: Sea Levels Have Receded Over Last 1500 Years, Including Since 1800s, Along India’s Coasts
    By Kenneth Richard on 3. April 2023

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    Contrary to alarmist claims, the seas have been retreating and the coasts have been expanding seaward along the coasts of southern India since the early 1800s.
    Korkai was a port city, capital, and the principal trade center for India’s Pandya Kingdom from the 6th to 9th centuries CE.

    While Korkai was situated on the sea coast during the early stages of the Medieval Warm Period, the city center is now approximately 5 or 6 km from the coast. This confirms the sea has substantially receded since then.

    Nautical maps from the 1805-1828 period clearly affirm the coast of southern India has continued expanding seaward in the last 200 years, despite the reported rise in relative sea level (Gupta and Bhoolokam Rajani, 2023).

    In other words, much more coastal land area is above sea level today than during the Little Ice Age, or when CO2 levels were said to be 280 ppm.

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Gupta and Bhoolokam Rajani, 2023
     
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  15. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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  16. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Tropical Paradise Islands Are Not Sinking And Shrinking…Most Are In Fact Growing!
    By P Gosselin on 15. April 2023

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    Because of global warming, tropical paradises are said to be shrinking. In reality, however, most of them are actually GROWING, as extensive long-term studies have shown.[​IMG]

    By Wolfgang Kaufmann (Editor. PAZ*)

    On 17 October 2009, the then President of the Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed, convened a cabinet meeting six meters below the surface of the water not far from the island of Girifushi. Nasheed wanted to use the media-effective spectacle to point out that his country is threatened with flooding should the rise in sea levels due to climate change continues.

    Similar fears were subsequently expressed by politicians from other island states in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, such as Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Federation of Micronesia. They referred not least to two warnings by the United Nations in 1989 and 2005, which spoke of the imminent demise of the tropical paradises on the shallow coral islands.

    However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has since had to permanently revise its forecasts regarding sea-level rise: After assuming 100 centimeters by 2100 in 1990, only 38 centimeters remained from 2007 onwards.

    But even this could be grossly exaggerated: as a long-term study by the Australian oceanographer Simon Holgate showed, the sea level rose by only ten centimeters between 1904 and 1953 and then by only 7.25 centimeters between 1954 and 2003.

    “No signs”

    But that’s not all: the coral islands have hardly shrunk as a result of the increase, but instead have generally even grown. This is the result of a whole series of studies published between 2010 and January 2023. Most recently, a group of researchers led by geologist Paul Kench of the National University of Singapore reported in the science journal Nature Communications that “recent shoreline changes (±40 meters in 50 years)” on the Maldives island of Kandahalagalaa were “dwarfed by shoreline changes (±200 meters in 100 years) that occurred in the 15 centuries prior”. . . .
     
  17. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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  18. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No need to evacuate, but we are raising seawalls in Miami and Ft Lauderdale due to flooding.
     
  19. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    ". . . NASA satellite instruments, measuring sea-level since 1993, show global sea level rising at a pace of 1.2 inches per decade. As shown in Climate at a Glance: Sea Level Rise, this is approximately the same pace of sea-level rise that has occurred since at least the mid-1800s. Moreover, there has been little or no acceleration in sea-level rise during recent years.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) maintains a tidal gauge just offshore from Miami on Virginia Key. The NOAA Virginia Key tidal gauge shows sea level at Miami is rising even more slowly than the global average of 1.2 inches per decade, as seen in Figure 1 below. Miami, shows no signs of acceleration in sea level rise.

    [​IMG]
    Figure 1: The relative sea level trend is 3.0 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of/- 0.21 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1931 to 2021 which is equivalent to a change of 0.98 feet in 100 years.
    So, if sea-level rise is slower that the global average, showing no signs of acceleration, what is driving Cohen’s and Schuyler worry that Miami may soon be uninhabitable?

    At the core of Cohen’s and, to a lesser extent, Schuyler’s concern about climate change swamping Miami are flawed computer models and actual land subsidence. . . . "
     
  20. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That's a cool graph, but our own eyes are seeing the water flooding to the streets and buildings, so we have to raise the seawalls no matter what your scientists are arguing.
     
  21. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    As you wish.
     
  22. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, but building big cities just above Sea Level along the coast is never a smart idea as many cities have drowned when Glaciation ended with a corresponding 400' sea level rise.

    DROWNED CITIES

    LINK
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2023
  23. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Its not my wish, its what I see.

    Whether or not its 'man-made' is another story.

    Maybe, but most large cities near the sea were built around natural ports, so it is what it is.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2023
  24. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    I am sure there were "natural" ports 400' lower too and new ones as it rose upward over a few thousand years.

    Nature does what it does, so it is what it is.

    Did you bother to read the link?
     
  25. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Claims of accelerated sea level rise seem to have been based on faked data.
    Have Sea Level Rise Data Been Faked? Altimetry ‘Corrects’ Non-Trends To Show Rapid Acceleration
    By Kenneth Richard on 14. September 2023

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    A stable current global sea level record has apparently been “corrected” to show accelerated rise since the 1990s.
    A few months ago we highlighted a new study indicating satellite observations reveal Antarctic-wide ice shelves gained +661 Gt of mass from 2009 to 2019.

    Instead of reporting on these actual observations, agenda-driven scientists have long been using an approach relying on assumptions of an unrealistic “steady state” or fixed calving flux (instead of real-world time-variable observations). An assumption-based assessment approach allows estimates a net Antarctic ice shelf change to go from a +661 Gt mass gain to a -20,028 Gt mass loss over this 11-year period (Andreasen et al., 2023).

    This is a more than 30-fold distortion of what actual observations indicate.

    “Correcting” stable sea levels to show accelerated rise

    A few years ago Australian scientists exposed a similar assumption-based assessment approach in estimating trends in global sea level change.

    According to long-term global tide gauge data (from the 100 tide gauges with more than 80 years of continuous data), sea levels have been gradually rising at rates of about +0.25 mm/year with no perceptible acceleration since the early 20th century.

    Likewise, when satellite altimeters were originally deployed in the 1990s to early 2000s they consistently did “not show any sea level rise.”

    A lack of sea level rise didn’t advance the narrative, of course.

    So instead of reporting on what the actual satellite observations showed, arbitrary, subjective assumptions were employed to “correct” the data to show sea levels have been rising at rates of 3.2 mm/year instead.

    The GMSL satellite altimeter data showed no rising trend for the first 5 years of the record. The first 5 years were then “corrected” to show +2.3 mm/year of sea level rise.

    The GRACE satellite data showed the was a -0.12 mm/yr sea level fall trend from 2003 to 2008. After “correction,” this was changed to a +1.9 mm/year sea level rising trend.

    “…the untampered results, not showing the desired sea level rise, were replaced by ‘corrected’ results. ntil August 4, 2011 the European Space Agency’s Envisat satellite was showing less than +0.976 mm/year sea level rise since 2004. A few months later, thanks entirely to further corrections, the same data set showed +2.97 mm/year of sea level rise.”

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Parker and Ollier, 2016
    Satellite data reveal coastal land area has been expanding seaward since 1984


    A 2021 study (Mao et al., 2021) lends support to what the untampered satellite altimetry data indicated − prior to the assumption-based corrections.

    Today there are high resolution satellite images available from Google Earth clearly demarcating global-scale decadal shoreline change since the 1980s. And, despite the “accelerating sea level rise” claims, the 1984-2019 satellite data show coastlines have been expanding by a net +0.26 m/year.

    According to Mao and colleagues, Australia’s coasts have been growing at a rate of +0.10 m/year since 1984. Asia’s coasts have been expanding +0.64 m/year. Europe’s coasts are accreting +0.45 m/year. And the African continent has been observed expanding at a +0.31 m/year clip.

    The only two continents where coasts have not been observed expanding in recent decades are South America, 0.00 m/year, and North America, -0.29 m/year.

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: Mao et al., 2021
    A 2019 global-scale analysis of 709 islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans revealed 89% were either stable or growing in size, and that no island larger than 10 ha (and only 1.2% of islands larger than 5 ha) had decreased in size since the 1980s (Duvat, 2019).

    Likewise, the globe’s beaches been growing by 0.33 m/year since 1984 (Luijendijk et al., 2018).

    In a press release for 2016 paper on coastal land area changes from 1985 to 2015, scientists acknowledged this:

    “We expected that the coast would start to retreat due to sea level rise, but the most surprising thing is that the coasts are growing all over the worldBBC

    Claims of dangerously accelerating sea level rise posing an imminent global threat to coasts in the satellite altimetry era may not just be inaccurate. They may be fake.
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2023

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