Stanford Epidemiologist On COVID Death Rate: 0.15%

Conclusions

All systematic evaluations of seroprevalence data converge that SARS‐CoV‐2 infection is widely spread globally. Acknowledging residual uncertainties, the available evidence suggests ''AVERAGE'' global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5‐2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with ''SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES'' in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations.

LINK: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13554

As of February 28th, 2021, Worldometers show 2.557 million cumulative deaths, 115 million confirmed cases

2.6M Deaths/1.75B estimated infections = 0.00148, thus, 0.15%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/

Question: When did the U.S. achieved 100% Herd Immunity, and an average IFR of 0.15%?

Answer; At 500,000 cumulative deaths/332 Million estimated infections = 0.15% IFR

Note; February 13th, 2021, according to worldometers, we had 499,600 cumulative deaths.

Since February 13th, 2021.............

February 13, 2021...... 7 day average daily cases; 88,000
April 26, 2021..............7 day average daily cases; 58,600

February 13th, 2021.......cumulative confirmed cases; 28.2 million
April 26, 2021.................cumulative confirmed cases; 32.8 million

-----------------------------

Question: When did the U.S. achieved 75% Herd immunity, and an average IFR of 0.15%

Answer; Jan 05, 2021...........Cumulative deaths 375,000/250 Million estimated infections;

Jan 05, 2021.................7 day average daily cases; 213,000

------------------------------

Question; When did the U.S. achieved 50% Herd immunity, and an average IFR of 0.15%

Answer; Nov 12, 2020...........Cumulative deaths; 251,000/166 million estimated infections

Nov 12th, 2020................7 day average daily cases; 139,000

--------------------------------

REVERSE CALCULATIONS

As of February 28, 2021, Worldometers show 115 million confirmed cases

as of February 28, 2021, Estimated average infections; 1.75 billion

Thus, 115 million X15.22 = 1.75 billion

Aug 14, 2020, Worldometers U.S. show 21.8 million confirmed infections X 15.22 = 331.7 million/100% herd immunity

CONCLUSION; ''SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES'' in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations....................INDEED!

Law of averages; not applicable in the U.S.

--------------------------

Last place of employment/recently retired;

CEO Salary; $12 million
COO Salary; $7 million
CFO Salary; $3.8 million
SVP Salary; $3.7 million
SVP Global; $2.6 million
8 Regional VP; at $750,000 = $6 million
15 Engineers; at $250,000 = 3.75 million
30 Operators; at $125,000 = 3.75 million

Total compensation, Operators to CEO = $40 million, average salary; 666,000

Number of Employees; 1,800 - 60 above = 1,720

Average salary of said 1,720; $60,000 = $103 million

Total compensation; $143 million, average salary; $80,000 (143M/1800)

Thus, ''SUSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES'' in compensation between UPPER and LOWER

'SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES'' in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations
'SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES'' in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations
'SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES'' in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations

 

That is simply not true. For example, obese people are far more likely to cause automobile accidents than fit people.

 

Are you trying to reason with the unreasonable again?

 

Quote: Meanwhile, countries with extremely high mask compliance and relatively high stringency measures...

.......like Canada, and numerous other countries have done extremely well compared to Sweden's extremely low mask compliance and relatively low stringency measures in place.

Canada's number of Covid19 Deaths per 1M pop; 633

Sweden; 1,379

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

AND here comes the ''Yeah but, Yeah but, and Yeah but''

 

Correction;

His few last healthy brain cells have tried to reason with him.

 

There is no upper limit. Folks with his mindset do not actually think they should be required to do anything they don't want to, especially if it's inconvenient or makes them uncomfortable. Even if tens of thousands were dying daily from this virus in this country alone, it wouldn't be enough. No amount of consequences for human life, be it death or long-term debilitation, warrant the imposition.

 

According to several sources, in Russia, covid death numbers have been purposely deflated, HOWEVER, we will one day find out their last year's number of ''pneumonia deaths'' in quotation, compared to 2019. In the U.S., we're approx. 11 months away from finding out 2020's final death count, and ''Causes of Deaths''.

 

How does one count the number of unreported cases?

 

CONCLUSION

All systematic evaluations of seroprevalence data converge that SARS‐CoV‐2 infection is widely spread globally. Acknowledging residual uncertainties, the available evidence suggests average global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5‐2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations.

LINK: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13554

-----------------------

NOTE: ''the available evidence suggests average global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5‐2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations.

......with SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES.......

Here's my analogy;

My last employer/recently retired;

CEO Salary; $12 million
COO Salary; $7 million
CFO Salary; $3.8 million
SVP Salary; $3.7 million
SVP Global; $2.6 million
8 Regional VP; at $750,000 = $6 million
15 Engineers; at $250,000 = 3.75 million
32 Operators; at $125,000 = 4 million

Total compensation, Operators to CEO = approx. $40 million, average salary; approx. $660,000

Number of Employees; 1,800 - approx. 60 above = 1,720

Average salary of remaining 1,720 employees; $60,000 = approx. $103 million

Total compensation; approx. $143 million, average salary; $80,000 (143M/1800 employees)

Thus, ''SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES'' in compensation, and average compensation between UPPER and LOWER

NOTE:

'SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES'' in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations
'SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES'' in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations
'SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES'' in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations

 

There was no correction required. @Ethereal been running circles around those opposing him on this topic.

 

Question; How many people get sick with the flu every year?


CDC conducts surveillance for people who see their health care provider for flu-like illness through the Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet); a network of thousands of health care providers who report the proportion of patients seeking care for flu-like illness weekly to CDC. This system allows CDC to track levels of medically attended flu-like illness over the course of the flu season. CDC does not know exactly how many people get sick with seasonal flu each year. There are several reasons for this including that ILINet does not include every health care provider and monitors flu-like illness, not laboratory-confirmed influenza cases. Also, flu illness is not a reportable disease and not everyone who gets sick with flu seeks medical care or gets tested.

CDC uses mathematical modeling in combination with data from traditional flu surveillance systems to estimate the numbers of flu illnesses in the United States. CDC estimates that flu has resulted in between 9.3 million and 45 million illnesses each year in the United States since 2010. For more information on these estimates see CDC’s Disease Burden of Influenza page. For more information on CDC surveillance systems, see CDC’s Overview of Influenza Surveillance in the United States.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm#:~:text=CDC uses mathematical modeling in,illnesses in the United States.

-------------------------

BLS......Household Survey, and Establishment Survey

-------------------------

HOWEVER, according to the CDC;

CDC chief says coronavirus cases may be 10 times higher than reported

June 25, 2020

The number of people in the United States who have been infected with the coronavirus is likely to be 10 times as high as the 2.4 million confirmed cases, based on antibody tests

The antibody tests examine a person’s blood for indicators that the immune system has mounted a response to an infection. The serological surveys are being done around the country as epidemiologists try to measure the reach of the virus to date. Redfield said he believes 5 to 8 percent of the population has been infected so far.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/

NOTE: Number of confirmed cases as of April 27, 2021; 33 million, per 1M pop; 100,000

10 times higher = 330 million/near 100% Herd Immunity

However, U.S. Daily Cases 7 day moving average, April 27, 2021; 57,000, average per 1M pop; 171

Sweden's daily cases 7 day moving average, April 27, 2021; 5,167, average per 1M pop; 516......3 times higher than the U.S.

Sweden's total number of confirmed cases; approx. 1 million, per 1M pop; 100,000

Sweden's population; 10.1 million

10 times higher = 10 million/near 100% Herd Immunity

Note; As of 27 April 2021, 27.9% of adults in Sweden have received at least one dose, with a total of 3,019,266 doses administered

CONCLUSION; In the U.S. and Sweden, number of unconfirmed infections, definitely not 10 times higher than confirmed cases. 5 times higher????????

As of February, 2021, worldwide, there were 112 million confirmed cases, and an estimated average of 1.750 billion infections, thus, 15.2 times higher than confirmed cases.

Key words of said estimated 1.5 billion to 2 billion world wide infections/15.2 times higher than confirmed cases;
'SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES'' in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations.



----------------------------

 

Deaths attributed to COVID account for roughly 4% of all deaths in 2020, yet those same deaths have received roughly 100% of the attention.

That is clearly a hysterical reaction, one that is not based on reality.

Except there isn't a shred of evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of those measures. In fact, they are proven failures on every level.

That estimation came from the Imperial College of London, not Trump. Trump cited it because he was trolling his opponents and the media.

At any rate, the lead modeler, Niall Ferguson, was caught breaking quarantine in order to have sex with a married woman.

Those are the kind of people you think are credible "experts".

 

Sure, if you ignore all the places that did poorly despite having heavy lockdowns and relatively high mask compliance - places like Belgium, Italy, Spain, and France - and ignore all the places that did well despite having light restrictions and low mask compliance - places like Norway, Iceland, Finland, and Denmark - then your cherry-picked example seems compelling.

 

Well, he didn't circled around me due to the fact, he has not yet replied to my posts, and when does, I'll be circling around him.

 

(Looks at @Ethereal post made three minutes before the one I am quoting)

Sure ya will bud...sure ya will...

 

Tell me, Ethereal,

Were the following Thread Titles/Articles very persuasive?

Don’t weep for Sweden; it is now one of least infected countries
phoenyx, Sep 15, 2020 ...

Current results of Sweden's approach
Eleuthera, Aug 6, 2020

Sweden'S Cronovirus Strategy Will Soon be the World's
Paul7, May 16, 2020

Swedish Ambassador Says Stockholm Expected To Reach ...
https://www.npr.org › 2020/04/26 › stockholm-expected-t...

Apr. 26, 2020 — Sweden has employed a controversial coronavirus response strategy of ... Swedish Ambassador Says Stockholm Expected To Reach 'Herd Immunity' In May 2020

-------------------

NOT TO ME!

 

YOUR OPENING STATEMENT;

We've allowed civilization to be upended for over a year based on a virus with a 99.85% survival rate, and which overwhelmingly targets people who were going to die within months no matter what we did. The sheer lunacy of COVID "mitigation" efforts is hard to overstate

CONCLUSION

All systematic evaluations of seroprevalence data converge that SARS‐CoV‐2 infection is widely spread globally. Acknowledging residual uncertainties, the available evidence suggests average global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5‐2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations.

LINK: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13554

NOTE: the available evidence suggests average global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5‐2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations.

with SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES in IFR and in effection spread across continents, countries and locations


MY ANALOGY

My last employer/recently retired;

CEO Salary; $12 million
COO Salary; $7 million
CFO Salary; $3.8 million
SVP Salary; $3.7 million
SVP Global; $2.6 million
8 Regional VP; at $750,000 = $6 million
15 Engineers; at $250,000 = 3.75 million
32 Operators; at $125,000 = 4 million

Total compensation, Operators to CEO = approx. $40 million, average salary; approx. $660,000

Number of Employees; 1,800 - approx. 60 above = 1,720

Average salary of remaining 1,720 employees; $60,000 = approx. $103 million

Total compensation; approx. $143 million, average salary; $80,000 (143M/1800 employees)

Average company salary; $80,000

HOWEVER, ''SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES'' in compensation between the TOP 5% and Bottom 95% earners

------------------------

Average Global IFR 0.15%

HOWEVER, with SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES in IFR and in effection spread across continents, countries and locations.

 

ALRIGHT FOLKS

STUDY # 1

Preliminary results from the study of 60,000 people across the country suggested roughly 5% of the population had been affected by the virus, far less than required to build up herd immunity to inhibit the virus's free circulation within the population.

One of Europe's worst affected countries, Spain has reported 231,606 confirmed cases of the virus and 27,709 deaths, though a strict lockdown has helped rein in its spiralling infection rate.

https://news.yahoo.com/starts-now-antibody-study-guide-162430187.html
https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/14...st-is-100-accurate-says-public-health-england

COMMENTS FROM THE OP called Alchemist

This is pretty damning evidence.

A 100% reliable antibody test, with a country wide effort on a highly infected country. This is best data we have so far and the infection rate is much lower that we expected and hoped for.

THE MATH;

SPAIN POPULATION; 46.7 Million X 5% = 23.3 million confirmed and unconfirmed cases

BACK THEN, there were 231,606 confirmed cases, and according to said study, 10 times more infections = 23.1 million

ALSO BACK THEN, there were 27,709 deaths, thus, IFR equates to 27,709/23.1M = 0.12%

TODAY'S Number of confirmed cases; 3.5 million, X 10 = 35 million confirmed and unconfirmed cases/75% Herd Immunity

TODAY'S IFR equates to 77,943 deaths/35 million confirmed and unconfirmed cases = 0.22%, near twice as much as May

TODAY'S Daily Cases 7 day average; 8,614

As of April 16, 2021, the number of COVID-19 vaccines administered in Spain was over 12 million doses.

----------------------------

STUDY # 2...............another 10 times higher than reported

CDC chief says coronavirus cases may be 10 times higher than reported

June 25, 2020

The number of people in the United States who have been infected with the coronavirus is likely to be 10 times as high as the 2.4 million confirmed cases, based on antibody tests

The antibody tests examine a person’s blood for indicators that the immune system has mounted a response to an infection. The serological surveys are being done around the country as epidemiologists try to measure the reach of the virus to date. Redfield said he believes 5 to 8 percent of the population has been infected so far.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/

HOWEVER, Unlikely!

THE MATH;

CURRENT Number of confirmed cases; 33 million........10 times higher = 330 million confirmed/unconfirmed cases, thus, near 100% Herd Immunity

CURRENT IFR equates to 588,000 deaths/330 million = 0.18%

TODAY'S Daily Cases 7 Day Average; 58,000

Number of COVID-19 vaccines administered; Over 200 million

------------------------------

STUDY # 3

Global infection fatality rate is approximately 0.15% with 1.5‐2.0 billion infections as of February 2021.

LINK: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13554

As of end February 2021, there were 112 million confirmed cases worldwide. Average number of global infections, 1.75 billion, thus, 15.5 times higher.

CURRENT number of confirmed cases; 150 Million X 15.5 = 2.3 Billion

CURRENT IFR equates to 3.16 million deaths/2.3 billion infections = 0.14%

----------------------------------

QUESTION;

Which study you like the most;

CDC.......Infections 10 times higher than reported, however, unlikely

Spain.......Infections 10 times higher than reported

Global......Infections 15.5 times higher than reported

NOTE: Sweden's number of confirmed cases; 960,000, 10 times higher = 9.96 Million, Population; 10.1 milllion, thus, near 100% Herd Immunity. Daily Cases 7 day average; 5,167

NOTE: If we lower the number of infections, IFR will increase

MY CONCLUSION;

Global number of infections, 13.5 to 17.5 higher than reported.........UNLIKELY

USA and Sweden number of infections, 10 times higher than reported.......UNLIKELY

5 to 10 times higher that reported????????? Let's wait for the next study.

LAST, I do have a rational/mathematical BOMBSHELL

 

Don't you think that without social distancing a lot more people would have gotten infected? So 2 million sounds really reasonable given that 500,000 died with social distancing.

 

YOUR Quote: Deaths attributed to COVID account for roughly 4% of all deaths in 2020

Question; There were how many deaths from all causes in 2020?

Question; How did you come up with 4%?

Last Question; Do you trust Sweden's Covid19 numbers, and their annual death rates?...........I think it was YOU or Eleuthera who once told me "I trust Sweden's Covid19 numbers, they have no reason to lie''........PSST; I'll be using their numbers against ya.

 

If we reduce the speed limit to 10 MPH, don't you think less people will die in car crashes? Are you against saving lives or something?

 

Let's put it this way.....

Who would deny/tarnish Taiwan's;

a. ''Let's Keep Working Strategy''?
b. Containment/preventive measures?
c. Collective effort to prevent/reduce the spread of infection?

Answer; Only the below-average intelligent/thick skull people

First, let's start with Taiwan's PREVENTION measures that can't be rationally/scientifically denied

1. NO LARGE GATHERINGS, such as;

Baseball in empty stadiums a welcome event in Taiwan

No fans have come to any games here since play started on April 11, 2020

https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2020/apr/27/baseball-in-empty-stadiums-a-welcome-ev-1/

Mr. Ethereal, do agree or disagree with said Covid19 prevention measure?

If disagree, why?

 

first, the word is preVENTIVE, not prevenTAtive

and you are correct and incorrect in a statement. Covid has nothing to do with the co-morbidity issue within the USA. Diabetes is a major factor in how people respond when another illness hits them, including the flu (of which Covid is a variant)

The 3rd rail for the Democrat media and Democrat voters is to admit that black and hispanic folk have a high occurrence of Diabetes and not due to poor medical care, but due to poor diet. That is not because of lack of funds, but what they choose to eat. That is the sad reality and like a person who skydives without a parachute, we the people cannot fix that.

No matter how many nice words a Democrat politician says, you are not going to change the behavior of people and punishing the rest of the population for the personal choices of others, is not "protection"; it's control.

 

There are many ways government can modify people's behavior, such as;

Austin, Texas......Emergency Water Use Restrictions

Fine; $2,000

Freedom to choose?....Go ahead!

 

Nobody knows. For example neither me nor my wife have ever gone to the doctor or anywhere medical with flu symptoms. We have never been counted. We just tough it out. You must think we are the only people who do that.