Still another variant; possibly more infectious than Delta

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by CenterField, Oct 21, 2021.

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  1. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I'm just saying, the natural infection comes with a price to pay. With the newest research coming out of Pennsylvania State University finding a freaking 50% of Covid-19 survivors showing at least one symptom of organ damage for several months, obviously the method for acquiring the natural immunity is a darn dangerous one.

    And it's not a misrepresentation when there ARE studies showing the vaccine immunity as superior to natural immunity (although as I said there are also studies showing the opposite).

    I'd summarize this conundrum like this:

    Declining the vaccine in favor of trying "natural immunity" comes with a 1 in 2 chance that you'll end up with at least one of your organs damaged. By comparison the vaccines have statistically negligible risks, literally hundreds of thousands times smaller than the risks of the disease, and breakthrough infections among the vaccinated tend to be very mild. So, regardless of what method yields best immunity against subsequent infection, get the vaccine!

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    The ultimate blow to this idea of natural immunity instead of vaccines, is that the very study anti-vaxxers keep quoting to demonstrate that natural immunity is better than vaccines, had a third arm they conveniently ignore, saying that the best of all protections is the natural infection + one dose of the vaccine.

    Even the paper the anti-vaxxers keep quoting, concludes by recommending the vaccine!

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    Look, people who unlike the two of us, have no clue regarding immunology and virology, use these buzz words "natural immunity" and "herd immunity" (most of the time not even having the faintest understanding of what these terms actual mean), in order to put down the vaccines. So they run around yelling these buzz words and saying they don't need the vaccine, without even knowing what they're talking about.

    As you and I know, 99.5% of posters here don't even start grasping the complexities of the concept of herd immunity. And they seem to adopt this naïve and romantic idea of natural immunity as if it's something that will prevent them from catching the virus in the first place including with memes saying "I have an immune system, no vaccine needed" without understanding that when a paper talks about natural immunity, it's the one acquired AFTER a first bout with the virus.

    These people will prefer to face odds that are much worse than a Russian Roulette's, odds that actually get as high as 1 in 2 of organ damage, in the name of this romantic idea that their immune systems will provide.

    If we raise a child in a bubble, no school, no playground, no playmates, the child's immune system will be weaker. But when we want to stimulate that growing child's immune system, it's cool to expose the child to common cold coronaviruses, rhinoviruses, enteric adenoviruses, etc.; that is, the ones that don't kill you and do make you stronger...

    But the Covid-19 virus CAN kill or maim ya!

    When we're trying to beef up a child's immune system, we don't go exposing the child to tuberculosis, meningitis, polio, etc. - we don't expose them to the dangerous, potentially fatal viruses, bacilli, and bacteria. For these we have vaccines.

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    Present company excluded. I know that YOU are perfectly aware of all of the above. This post is more to the attention of other readers, than to you; you don't need what I'm saying above, but others do need to understand this a lot better.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2021
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  2. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    Definitely orders of magnitude more risky.
    I’m talking about when antibodies after infection were first studied, the media reported on first wave non neutralizing antibody titer decreases but failed to mention longevity of neutralizing antibodies. I still have people tell me natural immunity lasts only 3 months based on that reporting. I’m talking about the failure of media and experts to report on cellular components of immunity when they were discovered in convalescents. I had to comb studies for months looking for confirmation of memory B cell formation and it wasn’t widely reported for months after publication of studies even though finding memory B cells was one of the most significant components discovered that predicts quality and longevity of immunity. Still all anyone reports or talks about is neutralizing antibodies. T cell components of immunity still aren’t heralded for their protective value either—even in vaccines. My response in this thread was to correct misinformation on natural immunity. That misinformation is coming from somewhere.

    I agree the jury is still out on natural vs. vaccine induced immunity in overall effectiveness. But you have to admit one gets the glory and the other gets trashed and misrepresented. I think that’s a mistake because natural immunity WILL make up a major component of long term immunity going forward. These vaccines just aren’t preventing enough infections for any other scenario to develop (barring development of a better vaccine or boosters). As you say, a vaccination plus a natural infection is shown to be superior to either by themselves. That is also something to be thankful for and what will eventually turn this pandemic pathogen into an endemic one.

    Agreed. I’d just add one thing to the childhood immune system part. Try to keep your kids healthy with lifestyle, not antibiotics. Their immune systems will thank you for life. :)
     
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  3. Eleuthera

    Eleuthera Well-Known Member Donor

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    Luc Montagnier and numerous other virologists and immunologists disagree with you. In fact (you missed it) they predicted exactly that when the clot shots were first being administered to the test subjects.
     
  4. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    Assuming the virologists know what they are talking about I would say your ability to understand them is lacking. Viruses mutate constantly with or without a vaccine. Assuming there are antibodies to fight the reproduction of the virus, a vaccinated person might have less mutation going on but basically mutation occurs constantly with this type of virus. Any virologist can tell you that.
     
  5. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  6. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    I don’t think anyone believes reinfection won’t happen after natural infection. It has been observed for some time and is increasingly common just as breakthrough infection is more common.

    The 3 to 63 month estimate between infections predicted by the model seems pretty inconclusive. A 16 month average between infections may be accurate but we won’t know until we have more data. Immunogenicity data shows good neutralizing activity of natural infection out to 15 months in some studies but that’s a totally different animal than asymptomatic reinfections in the real world. The big elephant in the room is the uncertainty about what immunity looks like after two natural infections or three. We know what it looks like after two vaccinations, but not three.

    It’s my opinion natural immunity is going to be better than vaccine induced immunity but there will not be enough longevity from either to eliminate a pretty substantial endemic presence of active infections. The combination of natural and vaccine immunity will end up being the norm, and the superiority of this combination to natural and vaccine induced immunity alone will also help suppress the endemic phase, but it won’t eradicate the disease.

    I said this back in the fall of 2020. I don’t see any evidence so far to change my mind.

    Hopefully as the number of boosters and natural infections increase the incidence of severe disease and sequelae will continue to decrease.

    I’m no expert on human vaccines, but in the animal world of respiratory viruses if a vaccination followed by a booster doesn’t confer long lasting immunity a third dose won’t either. It’s always a temporary boost in immunity. I had hoped the mRNA factor would break us out of this mold, but it doesn’t look to me like it has/will. I suppose it’s possible a third dose will confer long term immunity but I just don’t see any evidence so far it will. Just a general “hope” that it will.
     
  7. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Human vaccines go from some transient protection all the way to lifelong protection; it varies with the pathogens and the vaccines. I agree with you that it doesn't look like the current generation of Covid-19 vaccines will provide long term immunity. If anything, it's been more transient than we had hoped. We all hoped that vaccination once a year would do it, but maybe it will need to be twice a year, which has logistic challenges. On the other hand, it's not excluded that second-generation vaccines will change this calculation.
     
  8. Eleuthera

    Eleuthera Well-Known Member Donor

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    What Montagnier and other dissenting experts predicted in the early days of the vaccine have come to pass, with a vengeance. That makes them much more credible than your repeated defense of Pfizer and the rest of pharma. That Pfizer pleaded guilty twice to criminal fraud is icing on the cake.

    The narrative you push has been rendered bankrupt by the passage of the last 10 months.
     
  9. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    You are certainly a relentless misinformer.
     
  10. Eleuthera

    Eleuthera Well-Known Member Donor

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    When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over a two year period, or even over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving lunatic, or a relentless misinformer.

    In a time of universal deception such as these today, speaking the truth becomes a radical act, and is often perceived as misinformation by those who embrace the deceptions.
     
  11. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    Then you should consider speaking the truth.
     
  12. Eleuthera

    Eleuthera Well-Known Member Donor

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    It offends you when I speak the truth, but I'm not going to stop.
     
  13. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    Nothing offends me. I'm way too old go be offended. I just call out misinformation when I read it. Keep shoveling it out. I will continue pointing out the misinformation.
     
  14. Eleuthera

    Eleuthera Well-Known Member Donor

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    Many of your posts here suggest you gobble up the official information and let it form your world view. It seems that many times truthful statements and facts are repugnant to you. Maybe not.
     
  15. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    I read all the information, even the stuff you post about. We can agree that the biggest source of misinformation is the federal government. But the second one is the stuff you post. I'm not sure what official information means. If you mean government information, then you don't know me at all. I don't believe anything the government says until the private sector has backed it up. In the case of covid, the official information for me is the medical community in the private sector - the doctors that practice medicine without the burden of politics. They disagree with you.
     
  16. kreo

    kreo Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Nov 1, 2021

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