The German Government is finished! New elections unavoidable

The same day when the US Americans voted, the coalition in Germany broke. Finally the FDP - a party which focuses on free markets and economic freedoms and has not a lot incommon with the woke ideologues of the Social Democrats and the Green Party - denied to follow the chanellor, what they should and could have done before a dozen of times.

The straw that broke the camel's back was an argument about the "Schuldenbremse" ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_balanced_budget_amendment ), which the FDP denied to violate. In my personal view that law is out of time when Russia tries to bring war to Europe and it must be abolished if Germany should meet the 3% mark of its GDP for defence which Trump is demanding by all NATO states. It is good however that Lindner blocked here and ripped the coalition apart, because otherwise it would have been spent on welfare and refugees programs, affirmative action and gender neutral toilets.


The next man in line for becoming chancellor after the new elections is most likely Friedrich Merz, old school cuckservative and opportunistic. Although I dont hold him in high esteem he could be definitely the lesser of two evils. One of the problems is he could be forced to make a coalition with one of the two woke pest parties mentioned above, as he doesnt have the balls to include the alt-right in Germany (AfD) in his coalition. The alt-right is strong enough to put some pressure on his Christian Democrats, but not strong enough for a takeover like the GOP in the US.

 

It's too bad that Germans didn't elect Friedrich Merz to replace Angela Merkel instead of a "hampelmann" (puppet) like Scholz, the useless socialist clown. Germans have become so economically irresponsible and hyperliberal with the way they throw money around to anybody and everybody who wanders inside their country, and, all the citizen-bums who refuse to work because welfare handouts from the government pay better that now -- Germany is in real rapidly growing danger!

One 'small' sign: Volkwagen is the largest employer in the country -- and they've just announced that they're CLOSING three of their big factories INSIDE Germany. Let that news 'sink in' for a minute....

. "Miss me yet...?"

 

Could it be possible for him (the Christian Democratic Union Party, CDU ) to casually and informally make deals and do some cooperation with the AfD ?

I mean to effectively be a loose coalition, without being an "official coalition".

Or are they so disgusted with the AfD they wouldn't even talk to them?

What prevented the CDU and FDP forming a coalition?

I know the FDP may not be thrilled at the idea of severe limits on immigration, but surely that has to be preferable to dealing with the Left, I should think.

And ultimately, are not the CDU and FDP being a little idealistic and naive thinking they can keep up the high immigration levels and defend their ideological values in the country over the long term?

 

related threads that some may be interested in:
Germany went from envy of the world to the worst-performing major developed economy
Looks like the standard of living in Germany is going down...
Germany begins to struggle taking in more migrants
Highrise housing projects in Germany going bankrupt
Berlin's renters face more misery as housing crisis deepens
Russia is the fifth economy in the world to overtake Germany
Racial guilt in Germany, 100 air passengers get $21,000 each
Germany finally ends nuclear, Finland turns on biggest nuclear plant in Europe
Hypocrisy of Germany's Green politician
German former spymaster under surveillance by his own agency over ties to Right-wing

 

Scary!

 

Actually its the NATO treaty that demands 3% mark of its GDP for defence. Trump simply demands they adhere to the treaty they signed.

 

The AfD doesn't seem all that 'right wing', more like a moderate Right axis. In any case, most western countries have been running contradictory policies of mass immigration in the face of increasing automation and out-sourcing to slave labor countries and most new job creation being low paid service industry jobs and suffering high inflation to boot. Such a squeeze on the working and middle classes can't go on forever, not in Germany and not anywhere else either. It is only to be expected ethnic Germans will expect to be favored in their own country, after all; claiming 'racism' and 'fascism' is just silly nonsense. They have a right to look after their own interests over foreigners same as anybody else in their own country..

 

The press is a bit exaggerating, neither was Germany the paradise it was painted when the media was in love with Merkel, nor is it declining into a shithole over one generation. One existential problem is Islam and Islamic immigration, which has the potential to destroy Germany over the next generations.

The problems that are discussed in your collection are existing, but in contrast to Islam and Islamic immigration not irreversible. Its overwhelmingly the result of misguided green politics. In Germany the Green Party is the heart of the woke mind virus, you could maybe compare the left wing of the Greens to Sanders, the Squad and other woke pro-Islamist forces. The problem is that the media is backing the Green Party and the SPD which overtook the green ideology. Via the media they have some control over the Christian Democrats which used to be a conservative party once, but was transformed under Merkel to another center-left party which executed many parts of the green agenda like leaving nuclear power behind, like flooding Germany with specifically male Muslim migrants, like a lot of other self-destructive leftist ideas. More of the problems you give there have been caused by Merkel and her governments than by SPD led and Green supported governments. Which is why I am distrustful of this whole party and Merz.

I have to admit that I even agree that we should have the goal to get our energy carbon free in the long run, but there should be a realist schedule, with an economically affordable transformation, which should include all kind of non-fossil energy production, including nuclear power, technological efforts in fusion power, solar, geothermal and wind parks. Unlike the US, Germany doesnt have sufficient oil and gas resources so even all these clima discussions aside it would be a long term gain. Germany has lots of coal, but its too expensive to exploit it. So even when we assume for a moment all those clima talk turns out to be a hoax (I doubt that its a hoax as such, but the hysteria about it is imo) it would be still an asset in the long run to be less dependent on Islamic nations for our power supply. However the Green Party established a fetish for wind and solar only, without having good concepts for storage or battery ideas.

 

Merz wasnt an option at that point, Merkel turned the Christian Democrats far enough to the left, that Merz had no chance to get a candidate. The guy who was presented by the Christian Democrats to run against Scholz made a moronic impression. Although Scholz is a real bad chancellor, I can understand that the majority didnt want to see Germany in the hands of Armin Laschet, who made the impression on me as if there was a wire loose. And it may have been good that way, after 16 years of desastrous Merkel politics it was better the Christian Democrats got the defeat for it. Otherwise they would still follow Merkel's ideas. Better add 3 more years to 16 years of desaster and have a turning point than add another 20 years.

No doubt that Germany is in an economic crisis, but I would not overestimate this Volkswagen desaster and to be fair its not only the fault of our politicians that especially Volkswagen has problems. Germany has a very diversified economy, even although Volkswagen may be the biggest employer, there are a lot of big players and 85% of the work is provided by smaller companies here. Anyway the high energy prices are a burden for a lot of the employers. Chemical or Pharmaceutical, automobile. electronics, or vintage industries like steel, they are all concerned.

 

CDU and FDP would love to make a coalition. But at the moment it doesnt seem likely that the numbers could add up, right now the FDP could even fail to get the 5% necessary to enter the parliament. Even if they improve their result until election day, they need more votes than just these 5% to have enough for a coalition with the CDU and even if they improve their result, they must win their votes at the cost of Greens and Social democrats. I think the FDP would not stand in the way when it comes to stricter immigration rules, but as said, right now it doesnt look like it could be enough.

If Merz had the balls he could even make a coalition with the AfD and maybe they even would just tolerate a Merz chancellorship without being part of the government helping him to pass laws they agree with (for others he would have to ask other parties), but I doubt he has it in him.

Its possible only about 25% vote for SPD and Green, so there is no overwhelming woke majority here, quite the opposite, but the media successfully can make FDP and CDU react to their threats to smear them as Nazis as soon as they just make deals with the AfD. That wont hold forever, at some point in some federal parliament an ambitous conservative or maybe just an opportunist with the balls for it will take the opportunity to become premier of a federal state, but I think in the overall German parliament, the Bundestag, the time hasnt come yet and I doubt Merz will be the one to do it.

The polls at the moment are for the CDU around 30-35%, AfD 16-20%, SPD 14-17%, Green 10-12%, FDP 3-5% (you need 5% to enter the parliament), BSW (some strange pro-Putin sect with sometimes more similarities to far-right, sometimes far left, but anti-woke) 6-9%.

 

The AfD is surely demonized to some extend unjustified by the left-wing media, but there are some people in it, hands down, who see the NSDAP and the Reich as a role model. Not to the extend the press wants to pretend, but yes, they exist. Also some pro-Putin activists.

Anyway, for people who want to fight wokeness and mass immigration there is no other option. The only reason why Merz is the CDU candidate is that pressure of the AfD. The Christian Democrats missed the chance to present themselves as an alternative to the woke mind virus. Its as if in a political sense gold nuggets were laying on the streets, a unique selling point which will secure your political party. As the other parties were too stupid to pick it up, some of the extreme right politicians picked it up and said "thanks".

 

There is no actual number for that in the NATO treaties afaik. However, before the Russian invasion the NATO states agreed to have 2% as a target value. As the Russian invasion changed everything I think 3% are a reasonable value, Trump gave. It decreases the likelyhood that Putin tests a NATO reaction drastically and can be well invested money, that prevents to spill blood not to talk about much more money.

 

I think you have described an ideal political solution for this particularly difficult time in Germany, which is a CDU/AfD coalition -- perhaps with BSW (if necessary). My German friends, although they are conservative themselves (by German standards), do think that the AfD party is too 'doctrinaire' and rather badly-run, and, they think it is still too rooted in that "East-German" way of thinking (which they never describe very well, IMHO). My friends are definitely CDU supporters, and my best friend there wishes that Merz could be the new Kanzler, but he does not think that can happen, mostly because Merz is too conservative (again, by today's German standards).

One thing I know that Germans really dread right now is the very real possibility that President Donald Trump may appoint another ambassador to Germany like Richard Grenell. Germans I know want NO part of Richard Grenell, ever again!

 

In 2014, NATO Heads of State and Government agreed to commit 2% of their national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to defence spending, to help ensure the Alliance's continued military readiness. This decision was taken in response to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, and amid broader instability in the Middle East. The 2014 Defence Investment Pledge built on an earlier commitment to meeting this 2% of GDP guideline, agreed in 2006 by NATO Defence Ministers. The 2% of GDP guideline is an important indicator of the political resolve of individual Allies to contribute to NATO’s common defence efforts.
NATO - Topic: Defence expenditures and NATO’s 2% guideline

 

Beyond what percentage is spent on defense, I think it's important to look at how it is spent and how efficient that spending is. What will Germany get in exchange for 2 or 3% spending? That's what will help with deterrence and send a strong signal Pootler's way. That and a good measure of social and political unity where opposing his militarism is concerned, of course.

It's good to see stronger leadership coming in as this war drags on and the old leadership only seems to signal timidity and weakness. I'm amazed that we're apparently short of supplies to send to Ukraine this far into the conflict. We should have more Patriot missiles than we know what to do with at this point, but instead we're apparently starting to run short. Just incredible.

 

I suspect the transformation began in the churches.

In the U.S. it seems most of the Lutheran churches have been hollowed out from the inside (a process that probably began long ago in the mid-1970s but came to a head after around 2005) and have become very socially progressive.

So I'd imagine this likely parallels what has happened in the Christian community in Germany.

(Catholics in Germany are a bit of a more complicated subject, and have been experiencing a split. Roughly along the lines of 63 percent going progressive and 37 percent not wanting to go progressive)

 

Christianity evolves with the times.

 

It should be noted that the membership numbers in all of these progressive churches have been falling off. I'd say a little more than half those churches probably won't be around in another generation from now.

A cynic might comment that this strain of progressivism is a little bit of a Trojan horse.

 

Hard to say. Those churches are there for people who are spiritually minded but don't go for literal interpretations and oppressive practices. Their popularity may decline further, but eventually they're bound to come back too. These things are always undulating, the pendulum always swinging.

 

The people who go to those churches tend to be much less committed to their religion.

A conservative cynic might almost describe this as a gateway church to atheism.

Meanwhile, the pendulum seems to be swinging towards Islam in Germany.

 

Based on my own personal experience, I would disagree. It was the more fundamentalist form of Lutheranism that drove me away from theism. But that was also based in part on my love and respect for science and my tendency not to be superstitious or inclined to believe in things like spirits, and I can see logically how humans concoct gods and spirits to embody parts of their own psyche and try to explain natural phenomena for which they have no fact-based explanation.

I'm sure they'll be fine. Islam is not more of a problem than any other religion. I remember how much hysteria there was about it post-9/11, yet here we are with no Sharia Law. Islam hasn't managed to spread much, buffered probably more by liberal churches and atheists than by fundamentalist Christians and churches since Islam is less similar, and therefore appealing to the former than the latter group. If I were a believer in the Bible today, I would probably be more open to considering this other book-thumping faith which worships the same god and acknowledges the existence and deeds of Jesus. But as an atheist, I find it just as unpalatable and lacking in factual basis to be worth my consideration. To me, they're all emotional crutches for people who can't cope with reality and can't bear the thought of death without some kind of life to follow. You'll notice that believers all think they're going to the place in the sky and not the place underground, but like to think that others who disagree with them about this or that will go to that other place, and this is somehow acceptable to them. That's kind of sick if you think about it.

 

What is this? a troll post?
Or do you actually believe that wholeheartedly?

I suppose that's a long discussion for another thread.

I suppose when you say "problematic", what you really mean is politically, in terms of votes, from the perspective of the progressive Left.

 

It is not a problem. We have had Muslims in the US for as long as the US has existed and they're not a problem. Same in Germany.

You're spouting xenophobia and bigotry.

 

I suppose the New Years sexual assaults in Cologne was just lighthearted play?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hl04r1OjRQs

 

Not a religious issue, as in not a problem due to Islam per se. Also, you are generalizing based on one incident or series of incidents.

Look at the situation right here in the US. Muslims aren't out committing sexual assaults. They're no worse than any other religious group in this country.

Your arguments so far are the very definition of bigotry:

big·ot·ry
noun
obstinate or unreasonable attachment to a belief, opinion, or faction, in particular prejudice against a person or people on the basis of their membership of a particular group.