They are counting it as one. Godzilla could attack Brooklyn tomorrow and kill 5,000 people. The C19 death count would increase by 5,000 the next day. They can not wrap their heads around the numbers that show this virus was and continues to be over sold as something that would lay a path of death across this country the likes of which we have not see since WW2! So yes they will add death count anyway they can get it. Meanwhile the prices of oil went negative today, at one point being -$1.43. 20 + millions Americans out of work. And yet they want to be “cautious” about opening the economy...stunning how blind they are to the real danger this country faces.
My number? Glad you asked. In the US I’m lean fairly conservative in the actual number of infections when all is said and done at 15% of the country. So 49,500,000 cases ranging from hospital to no symptoms at all. I’ll lean more liberal with final death count of 75,000 from C19. Final death rate 0.15% Look at it this way. If only 5% Americans are infected that’s 16,500,000 cases. To have a 1% death rate 165,000 Americans would have to be dead. 4x the number of deaths we have now. And we have people on here saying this thing has a death rate of 3-5%?
Huh? The death rate charges based on deaths increasing and as new people are infected. This pandemic being in progress is irrelevant to the death rate not being 3%-5% or what fear mongering numbers the liberal screaming heads are using at the moment.
Now we are cookin. What do you mean by all said and done? The next couple of months, this year or this year and next? 2nd question. At the end of that period how many cases will be unresolved - not dead, but not over it yet. On a positive note we are coming closer together on a number. Last question. Does your number still include some distancing measures?
All said and done is this is over. Economy is fully back open. People are living life and not hiding in caves. When that is depends on how fast some grasp the economic cliff we are on and react. I’d say Sept myself. Too long IMO but it’s much quicker to turn off than open up Not many cases remaining, nothing of national consequence. Social distancing will fade away, it already is in reality. By late summer it will be 95% over in reality. Still will be signs up and direction given but it will be ignored as the cases and deaths fade away. Humans don’t do social distancing well
Some people really really want this to "be like the flu". Maybe it's because Trump kept claiming it was? Who knows. But it's beyond obvious now that Covid is far far more deadly than the flu. The flu is never the leading cause of death (except in 1918 ). It doesn't put world leaders in the ICU. Broadway stars in their 40's don't lose their leg over it. Etc, etc.
So, just to be clear...your number is an estimate based on how many will ultimately die and how many will ultimately get infected before the pandemic is complete?
The Coronavirus is much more contagious than the flu. As more data is collected the mortality rate based on the number of infections is going down and approaching that of influenza.
Trump specifically said it wasn't like the flu but the DRs keep basing stuff off the influenza when discussing treatment and vaccines so it has similar characteristics. Corona is not nearly as contagious obviously, 33 million caught the flu last year vs 800k have corona o date and it hasn't killed as many people as the flu the last time the calculations were confirmed 80k in 2017. The flu has a vaccine and still has 30-35 million Americans catching it annually and 40-80k that die annually from it. Bottom line Corona isn't like the flu, not even close.
The mortality rate has been going up (of the cases we've identified). It's over 5% now. Like you said, we don't know the true rate because of the testing fiasco. But we're very confident it's much higher than the flu. The flu doesn't hit like this, esp. not when the country has been in lockdown mode for over a month. We're STILL losing 1500+ a day from this, and we're going to be losing 1,000+ a day well into May.
The important data is the cases per day which has flattened and/or peaked. Deaths are the result of the identified cases ~ 2 weeks ago. Dr’s Fauci and Birx have stated that we have enough tests now for all states to complete phase 1. And the number is growing daily. Yes, the CDC screwed up the initial test production which cost us ~3 weeks.
"spreads so fast" compared to the flu that infects tens of millions of people (in the US) over the span of a few months?
LOL, so you think all those rents and mortgage payments just go away? At the end of the moratorium, they are all due in full. So if your $1200 rent is suspended for 90 days, you will owe $3600 at the end of the suspension. And when renters can't pay, and landlords haven't collected for 3 months, the bank then wants the mortgage payments in full, the landlords lose the place to foreclosure. So now landlord can't earn money from rent, rents are homeless and banks lost out since it's valued less than half. This is part of the economic fallout we're referring to. You follow?
Preliminary results in L.A. show 4% have it. I bet when we average in all the cities, suburbs, rural areas, and New York, we're just at 3% of the country: about 9 million people currently have it. I always thought S. Korea's numbers were accurate: in a developed country with good healthcare, this has about a 2% mortality rate. That would mean we should see 180,000+ deaths or so in about 20 days time. I think we'll see about half that, meaning it will look like a 1% mortality rate. But I don't think it will be 1%. I think we missed a lot of deaths (and will continue to do so). It stands to reason: if you're way off counting cases, you're going to be off counting deaths. Trump will get to crow about his hunch, but a 1-2% mortality rate makes it roughly 10-20 times more lethal than the flu, and nobody has any immunity. If less than 5% of the country have it, I think we can abandon the herd immunity idea.
The numbers are going to have to prove that out in my mind. The flue got 35 million last year with a vaccine, that's 10% of America catching the flu with a vaccine. Corona has a long way to go. I would say it's more deadly in some but again we're going to have to see where this lands as well. I don't think it's the flu, but the annual flu as of right now is more contagious and may be more deadly but not sure it would be with a vaccine.
It’s the rate of infection and death. The Corona virus has done its damage so far in ~ 4 weeks. And limited data is coming in showing that the number of infections are ~ 100 X the number of cases. What seems to be emerging is that for the Corona virus most cases are mild, much lower morbidity rate based on the number of infections, very high morbidity for those with serious preconditions, high contagiousness (each infected reinfects ~ 6 other individuals, and the need for an antibody test and therapy.
Herd Immunity. It's always been the right answer, we were just to soft to accept that. But the devil will get his due, the economic damage form the shutdown will ensure that.
I agree, just not sure this bad boy could ever get to 35 million infected in America. Maybe social distancing is better than the flu vaccine, I'm just not sure, it'll be interesting see where the final numbers work out for comparison. You very well could be right...
