What To Do About The Long-Term Implications of Automation

Seems we have oil out of the way. Did you do coal yet?

 

The issue is that we are advantaging fossil fuel vs clean energy at a time when we need to be doing the opposite.

Failing to help people who need energy to keep their apartments within reasonable temperature bounds isn't a solution. We're probably not going to change the way they warm their apartments.

But, we can make sure that building construction and energy take into account our situation. And, one first step is to stop advantaging problematic energy directions.

 

We are not ‘advantaging’ oil

Its the most economical

Its solar that needs help to compete

And it should not get help from the government

 

Your first sentence is just plain false.

 

Any nation has the capability to fail in the long run but these sovereign nations have a greater chance of success and rapid growth because of the information available today. The US didn't have a benefactor to learn from so the US basically charted it's own course. China and India, although farther behind in some areas, has the great benefit of the pros and cons the US has experienced. Plus, people in India and China, even with their suppression, today have a 1000 times more information than Americans had 75 years ago, and this places pressure on China and India governments to head down a better path. IMO, just as it is obvious the Spanish-based population is headed towards a national majority, and as such will eventually govern the US, I feel the same about China and India. The US must find it's niche and must be allies...

 

I agree with free trade, however, until all nations can live in harmony, I suspect trade will be used politically as well...

 

Only trade unimpeded by government and more money earned and kept by common people can stop wars.

 

I don't see any relevancy in comments about the genetics of the US population.

We're all Americans.

I do agree we'll be in far better circumstance if we have allies. For example, the US leaving the Pacific trade organization puts China in better shape in any trade negotiation.

 

Spanish based US population is growing and will soon be a majority in the US...this is a fact...not genetics. No matter how this disgusts many Americans this is the future of the US.

China and India have about 3 billion population between them and unless they implode both will become superpowers. No matter how this disgusts many Americans this is the future of the world.

Both of the above are obvious to me...this is the relevancy...

 

As for the direction of the increase in our Hispanic population, I know it bothers some, but we'll get over that.

As for China (and India) the US is certainly going to recede if we decide to go with isolationism.

 

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/07/us-population-future-is-older-and-more-hispanic.html

Trump and 1/3rd of the US population wants isolationism...if Trump only limps through one term we might be able to change course but if he gets a second term it's hard to imagine what the US standing will be in the world. It's wholesale ignorance IMO for Trump and his base to both fear and ignore 95% of the world's population...all of them developing consumers. Trump and his base only care about today, how to get some type of perceived political win today with zero regard to the rest of the world...this is not a win but instead fear and greed...BUT...good luck changing this...

 

We've been automating for over 100 years and look where it has gotten us...the most powerful and best nation on Earth!

Automation is not put in place for small quantities...it is put in place for large quantities of repetitive output. Logic says if automation can be justified then lots of consumers are buying product which means improved economies and more jobs, etc.

However, as it has been since over 100 years ago, as times change in the work place, workers must also change! They must acquire new skills and higher levels of education to work with higher levels of technology.

Workers who refuse to advance will be booted from the best paying jobs in the workplace and forever relegated to whining and demanding government solve their problems.

Automation and robotics will not replace humans! Both with other technologies will complement humans...

 

I just did...we've been automating since Henry Ford and we're doing pretty darned good today! The world cannot simply automate everything...ain't going to happen! And if we automate more and more, this must imply a pretty good economy, which implies people are benefiting as well. But the caveat in all of this, from a worker perspective, is that the worker MUST learn new skills and higher education as the workplace evolves from manual labor to automation and beyond...

 

And I clearly said people need to learn new skills and higher education to parallel technology advancements. Automation is not free! It does not happen in a vacuum. If automation is growing, so is output, which means a healthy economy and jobs. The other part of automation comes when labor no longer wishes to do the work...like farming, so when people refuse to do this type of work they better have a plan for what type of work they can do. One of the great aspects of automation that gets lost in this 'poor me' conversation is that automation allows humans to seek higher level jobs, higher paying jobs, more creative jobs, but it requires the human to obtain higher skills and education and if not the worker becomes obsolete. Those who invest in their skills and education will do just fine...and so will government...

 

Nothing has changed since the first employee in history! Those who bring the most qualifications to the workplace find jobs and make better compensation. Those who 'aren't up to the task' will forever be relegated to the bottom rungs of the economy and society. It was this way in 1925, 2018, and will be this way in 2050 and beyond. Each person has a potential and it's up to each person to take steps to realize their full potential. Not sure why you think government will have shortfalls if automation is growing? More and more automation is usually a sign of a good economy, and since 100% of all jobs cannot be automated, there will be plenty of jobs and plenty of tax revenues. You are forgetting we've been automating since Henry Ford and things today are going pretty well...

 

People who lose their jobs and cannot find new jobs have no right to blame it on automation?! A person can lose 'a' job for any reason but it is incumbent upon that person to find another job...this is how it has worked since the beginning of time.

Since we have seen unprecedented economic growth in the USA over the past 120 years, with automation and robotics, etc. growing during this time, doesn't this indicate there won't be any tax shortfalls because of automation?

45% of the workforce are not going to be without job opportunities!

 

Automation cannot be justified if there are little to no consumers.

Even today I'm guessing technology can automate 100% of many products but it simply does not make economic and practical sense. iPhone manufacturing currently requires ~500,000 workers! Of all companies who have the motivation and resources to automate it is Apple...so why don't they 100% automate iPhone manufacturing?

There is a HUGE difference between what we are capable of doing and what should be done...IMO automation falls into the latter category...

 

There will always be 10-15% of US workers who fail and will be a burden to society and government...no matter if it's personal limitations or automation. There won't be 45% due to automation!

There is NO critical issue with US workers displaced by automation! So why harp about it?

How much would you like to wager that 50% of current workforce will not be on the chopping block in a decade? Even 25%? I'll go as far as 10%?

There are many more reasons for automation than simply trying to lower cost? Humans can't do the work. Increased quality. An answer to labor problems. Competition. Availability of technology. Increase productivity. And yes...reduce costs.

There are perhaps two choices what to do with displaced workers; 1) retrain and reeducate them, and 2) if they refuse they become a burden on society...