Why France is stuck with Macron, even though they hate him

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by kazenatsu, Mar 24, 2023.

  1. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Some of you may have seen the riots and protests that have been going on in France.

    This post will explain why France is stuck with Macron, even though the majority hate him.

    About 42% of voters are on the Left, the Centre 14%, and the Right 24%.

    The Centre is like (to draw an analogy to U.S. politics) a mix of moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans. Neoliberal, globalism free market pro-business.

    Despite the Left being the biggest Party, the majority of voters would prefer not to vote for the Left's candidate.

    Despite the Left being much bigger than the Centre, the Centre pretty much has control over the decision-making.

    The leadership running the Left has thrown their support twice so far (in 2 different elections) to Macron, seeing that as preferable to the Right's candidate winning. The Left did not like Macron to begin with, but over the years they have become sick and tired of him.

    The majority of French voters do not like Macron. My guess is, if polled, only about 20% would say they like him. Maybe only 35% would say they do not hate him.

    But the way the leadership of the Left saw things, if Macron were not an option, then the Right's candidate would probably win the election.

    Maybe about 14% of voters are on the hard Right, another 10% are Right-leaning but wouldn't admit it in a poll, and maybe another 20% would prefer Macron but would be willing to vote for the Right's candidate if Macron were not an option.
    Probably, of those who identify themselves as the Centre, if the only option was between Right and Left, a third of them would vote for the Right's candidate and the other two-thirds would not vote.

    For the Left, the only way out of this would be to cooperate and make some sort of deal with the Right, but that is very unlikely to happen. The Left is too stubborn.
     
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2023
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  2. undertheradar

    undertheradar Newly Registered

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  3. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Most of the rioters and protesters are Leftist anarchists. But a significant portion are not on the Left too, more Libertarian minded, complaining about all the burdensome regulations on individuals and small businesses. Maybe somewhere between 10 to 35 percent of these protesters (overall over the last 6 years) have been non-Left.

    So the different groups of protesters are not all complaining about exactly the same thing, but there is some overlap. I think they're all complaining about declining standards of living, or at least difficulties in financially running their life.

    They want change, but I don't think they could all agree on exactly what change that would be, what their government should do. It's a fair bet that all of the protesters are angry at Macron though.

    Two of the things the Yellow Vest protestors wanted were less taxation on the lower middle class, and lower taxes on fuel.
    Something that's not so clearly a "Left" or "Right" thing.
    The majority of Yellow Vest protesters seemed to be men, above the age of 27, on lower middle class incomes.
    The fuel taxes hit people in rural areas more because they rely more on cars.
    They seem to want the government to care more about lower middle class working people and people in the rural areas, with a perception that the government only care about the rich elites in the cities.
    They're also complaining about the price increases (such as electricity and natural gas) caused by the country's green environmental policies.
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2023
  4. Nonnie

    Nonnie Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Because Left Wing voters are not the brightest, they vote based on character and not for results.
     
  5. Thingamabob

    Thingamabob Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The same reason why the US is stuck with Joe Biden, the UK is stuck with Rishi Sunak, and Sweden is stuck with Ulf Kristersson. It's an experiment to see what happens when everything is conducted upside down.
     
  6. Thingamabob

    Thingamabob Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You're partly right but it's not about character. It's about fluff.
     

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