Will the inflation spike be temporary?

Discussion in 'Economics & Trade' started by wgabrie, May 3, 2021.

  1. wgabrie

    wgabrie Well-Known Member Donor

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    Will the inflation spike be temporary? (msn.com)

    Oh, no! The workers aren't working. :(

    They're probably sitting at home collecting massive unemployment checks, boosted by the federal government.

    Oh, so it's an experiment. I support collecting data that would lead to better economic knowledge. I just hope wei don't end up in a bad place because of the government.

    Beware Hyperinflation!
     
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  2. lemmiwinx

    lemmiwinx Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I've said it before and I believe it. When the rest of the world realizes American dollars are nothing more paper and ink with nothing to back them there's going to be a price to pay.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2021
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  3. wgabrie

    wgabrie Well-Known Member Donor

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    I'd like to think that American money is backed by the strong, hard-working people of America... who are currently sitting at home, signing petitions to get reoccurring $2000 checks from the government. :(
     
  4. 19Crib

    19Crib Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The spike in durable goods prices will be permanent, and the buying power of low end paychecks will lag for years. Upper middle and high earners will keep up. Inflation will encourage businesses to automate as well as cut slow product lines, right as the country is flooded with new labor.

    As usual, asset owners will make money, Joe Rentcheck will suffer.

    Biden's handlers have bigger fish to fry. They want to change the economy, the country, the demographics, the tax code, the electoral system, the entitlement state, and the courts all on a VP's deciding vote.

    You can only guess who will be paying for it.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2021
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  5. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I believe paper is normal for all countries on Earth.
     
  6. Chrizton

    Chrizton Well-Known Member

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    Prices will continue to rise as more state raise minimum wages. That won't necessarily be inflationary though.
     
  7. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    How can the Government manage to do that and not print a lot more money? Defined as inflation.
     
  8. lemmiwinx

    lemmiwinx Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I'm getting my stimulus checks so who am I to complain. I say increase them yearly and make Lotto tickets free too.


    Hundred Trillion dollar bills people. I can't wait!

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2021
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  9. Quadhole

    Quadhole Well-Known Member

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    Increase the value of what they back their currency with... Gold... Oh wait, a republican war monger took us off of that. Then a republican Actor cut the taxes on the filthy rich millionaires whom used every penny they earned to leverage workers, send business overseas, cut wages, and buy up any corp. that showed it cared about its employees. Thank Art Laffer and others for that boondoggle. Move forward to Democrat Clinton who helped all those billionaires solidify their ownership, make it easier for them to grow their wealth, and allow the growth of Monopoly's.

    Bush helped his Oil field buddies establish a hold on Oil world wide. All the while we wasted trillions on wars, bombs, and leveraging every country we could. This helped keep the last of the anglo Scots-Irish in their country clubhouse life styles. All the while the Globalist Thieves were setting up their Healthcare, Biotech, Homedepot, NFL teams, and wallstreet, hedgefunds to take over the mass left of the white guys money. The Globalists Central Banksters i.e. FED CROOKS are not white guys in the American sense. They all have ties to Europe, and most to Israel. Where we send billions of free tax dollars each year.

    As you can see my hatred runs deep for anyone that pretend to be American while helping to destroy its financial stability in the name of friend and family. Biden did it for 40 years, Obama did it for 12, the Bushes, Reagan, Art Laffer, and so many money. Each and every Central Banker does it. All the local presidents, kashkary, and others. It is a pathetic coverup.

    Each new treasury secretary, FED chair, say and do the same thing. "today we are working on what is needed to KEEP THE ECONOMY going. YET, our plan is a 6-8-10-12 year plan that will pay the debt off later. It is sickening to listen to Powell, or Yellen talk these days as if things are fine. I wrote the same hatred 20 years ago online and still, nothing changes, very few Americans seek out the truth, nor do they care about it as the country year after year spirals into a 3rd world nation.

    CPI is the main culprit, the LIE OF CPI. Yet, you can add on 30 regs. added to the working class, and 100 deregs. taken away from friends and family of the FED CABAL. When will people wake up ? Not for another 50 years. Not until 95% are living dirt poor, hand too mouth while the billionaire class grows to about 1000. 90% of which are tied too, family of, or friends of the Larry Summers, the Carl Icahns, the Jerome powells, Janet yellen, and all the paid for think tanks that spend millions to sway the mind of the gullible.

    I just hope soon one day, one person does something to trigger people to look in the right direction.
     
  10. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    BIRDS OF A FEATHER SHOULD FLOCK TOGETHER

    And when might that happen?

    When the world finds a common-market of about the same economic-size. Where might that be?

    How about these numbers (GDP):
    US - 20.90T (yes, Trillion!)
    EU - 15.59T (and ratcheting up very nicely - see here)

    So, why not invest in Europe? I cannot imagine "why not".

    And yet, American investment in the EU for 2020 was only about $3.57T).
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2021
  11. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    They put on a good-show for TV, but I honestly do not think they influence anybody.

    Interesting to listen to them from time-to-time - but their input is not as valid as one's personal experience. Because business can be so complex that it depends upon a great variety of different circumstances. (I think personally that both intellect and good-luck are far more important than a Harvard Business School degree.)

    I am sure of one overriding principle: People should stop watching TV and just get on with their lives. Such behavior would be far more profitable to each individual in a personals sense than absorbing whatever everybody else says ...
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2021
  12. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What price?

    All trade is done in the very same manner and Amazon-dollars are no different from any other company employing them for international-business.

    What Amazon has been doing wrong is to think that because they pay taxes on all in-state foreign business they should have nothing more to pay in taxes to Uncle Sam for income earned multi-nationally. And there they are quite wrong.

    Americans abroad earning more than $100K must declare income in the US and they are taxed on it in addition to any in-country local-taxation. Why not American companies that market their goods/services around the world pay taxes on net-profits? Which they don't "in-foreign-countries" at the moment?

    Uncle Sam already authorizes US companies abroad to pay lower taxation on income earned abroad! And they do take advantage of that tax-break ... !

    PS: When push-comes-to-shove in a country where Amazon does business, who does Amazon call first to protect "our people" stationed abroad? Yes, Uncle Sam! But most of its income abroad must come from developed countries - such as those in Europe.
    PPS: As in the US, all business is transacted over the Internet, which is why Amazon has a abnormal price-advantage over other "in-store retailers". All the foreign-country governments get from Amazon-sales is the local national sales-tax and income-tax from those that work for Amazon.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2021
  13. L_Ron_Paul

    L_Ron_Paul Member

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    The breakeven rate between the 10y treasury and TIPs is currently sitting at 2.49%, which is basically what the bond market is currently expecting inflation will be over the next decade. Shouldn't be taken as gospel and it can increase/decrease but I would certainly trust what the market expects about inflation rather than random Internet cranks.
     
  14. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I don't think it will be. People have a way of imagining it will be, but it won't. Inflation has a way of keeping ratcheting up.

    This is going to prove once and for all that printing massive amounts of money leads to inflation. Where will the deniers be then?!?
     
  15. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Which is why incomes 'ratchet up".

    It's the "economic way" at present. But, it is really quite stoopid.

    Still, unless there is a central government body to control national pricing in ALL its aspects, there is No Other Solution in a "free-market"!

    That could happen, but not necessarily. We have a "banking fixing-system" nowadays practically everywhere (meaning in the US and the EU).. And when it has to do so, it puts its foot-down.

    Like tightening the money-supply, which works wonders when economies "go frenzy" ...
     
  16. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Republicans are not working to make Biden look bad - lol, could not help it, that is what the right would say to defend Trump
     
  17. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Trump spent more in 4 years than any President in history, how did he do it?
     
  18. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    GETTING THERE!

    Nope. Printing money has nothing to do with inflation.

    The culprit is Demand for Goods/Services and the prices thereof. Unless dictated by a government, they follow any trend as determined by ... Supply & Demand!

    And, the prime-mover there is? Demand.

    So how do we manage Demand to contain price-rises? Well, if it gets too strong a country simply augments the cost of money. Which works wonderfully in the US, but not so wonderfully in Europe. Too many countries have to agree, which is always "difficult" in the EU. So, after a considerably useless delay, the European Commission in Brussels steps in and raises ipso-facto the cost of money.

    In the US that is not the least bit a problem, since it is the FRB that does as it pleases - PotUS or no PotUS.

    We-in-Europe have not yet fully caught the non-laudable sickness of "having everything we want and no matter what-where-or-when irregardless of the cost or our ability to pay for it".

    But, we are getting there ... !
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2021
  19. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Nope. Inflation will be higher - but given that it has been almost zero in the summer of 2020 I suggest some inflation is good sign that consumers are buying once again in 2021.

    The inflation rate has been barely positive throughout 2020. It's current history looks like this:
    [​IMG]



    For the past 10 years it has bounced around between 0 and just less than 4%. Historically over that decade it has been mostly between 1 and 3%!

    Why should it suddenly kite up to beyond 4% a,d stay there? We are just getting out of a (highly) deflationary period ever since 2020 and the correction has been an additional 2% since May of last year.

    Which seems reasonable to me. But, as always, we shall see ...
     
  20. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Let me tell you how it usually works. During economic troubles, there are usually deflationary pressures.
    If we don't see deflation, if instead we see a 0% inflation rate, that suggests there may be inflationary pressures cancelling out that deflationary pressure.

    What's wrong with that? Well, when the economy goes back to normal, we're going to see that inflation.

    Basically the economy is going back to what it was before, with inflationary rebound to balance out the deflationary effect that happened before, except since the government printed more money before, when the inflationary rebound happens it's not going to go back to the same point it was at before.

    This is a "ratcheting up" effect.

    The inflation from printing money gets hidden in the trough of the economic wave, so you don't see it until right after the wave has passed.

    The economy shouldn't be having a 0% inflation rate right now, there should be deflation.
    If we don't have this deflation, we're not going to be back to the same point we were when there's a rebound.

    After each economic crisis, during the recovery phase we usually start to see observable inflation.
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2021
  21. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Pure exaggeration of supposition! That need not happen and it depends upon multiple key elements. The first of which is Demand. And, frankly, both the EU and the US have plenty in store.

    People want to get-out-from-under of Covid. And the way they will do so is to go out shopping! Because that is what humans do! Especially since the come-down in Covid-deaths coincides with the arrival of summer. Traditionally summer is the main spending-period of most economies.

    And beyond this summer, that is, longer term? Good question!

    What lack of Demand do you see formulating on the horizon and why?!? We are coming OUT of a monstrous capitulation of World Demand because of Covid. The only way out is UP and that means Demand Expansion.


    Ok, Ok, the economy could get worse. North Korea could drop an atomic bomb on South Korea! My Point? It would take something that drastic to stop Economic Expansion. And the likelihood of that happening is practically nil!


    All America has got to do is repair itself economically by means of traditional Consumer Demand. Which is going to be child's-play after Covid. And Europe? As usual, it will tag-along following Uncle Sam economically.


    PS: Of course the above is only my-opinion. But what is happening in World Commerce is extraordinary! That is, for the first time in human history, economic expansion is uniformly positive world-wide (wherever there is no open conflict today). No wars in sight. No uprisings. No nothing! (Middle-east excepted.)
     
  22. DennisTate

    DennisTate Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    @Econ4Every1 here on this forum made me aware that there were two conditions needed to produce
    hyperinflation.
    1. print a lot of extra money
    2 DECREASE PRODUCTIVITY

    The situation over the past year and several months is generally meeting both conditions but.......
    this can be turned around.

    BigPharma is presenting the vaccine as the way to turn this around......
    they could be at least partly correct but there is far more to the
    entire topic.

    BigPharma has so much power over BigMedia... due to their being one of the remaining
    major advertisers who keep the BigMedia outlets going......
    reporters who should be objective and honest.... are not allowed to be
    truly objective and honest due to the amount of money involved in keeping
    a narrative going that is not the entire topic on how the next few months can
    result in a true turn around in the world economy.


    In my opinion the following statement by three economists sets the stage for all of us to
    begin to look at the creation of money differently........ the key is to use the central banks in
    such a way as to create money without creating compound interest owing on a significant part of
    the money supply. The USA dollar is in a sense owned by all three hundred and sixty million Americans.
    The Canadian dollar is in a sense owned by all thirty seven point six million Canadians.... but......
    the wealthiest of the wealthy have in the past been grand masters at corrupting elected officials.

    We need to take another look at the idea of JUBILEE as was given to Moses in order to get a segment of our populations motivated.



     
  23. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Not here in Europe. In fact, their commercialization on TV is really constrained. For instance, to aspirin for a headache!

    Whyzat? Because going to a doctor costs you $25 and it is assumed that doctors know better what works and what does not work.

    They have their own "internal encyclopedia of medicines" based upon "effectiveness". And how did they get that encyclopedia?

    By usage of the medicines by their patients they learn how to tell which works best and not-best ...
     
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  24. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The US has been that way since its conception. So, nobody here is terribly worried and they should be!

    The existence of the US is NOT the burning question. That question is Income Fairness, which is has been a great embarrassment for a long, long time.

    But, it seems, We Yanks don't care terribly about that embarrassment. Which is a shame.

    Because what is happening is very serious to the Quality of Life in America. Manufacturing has gone to the dogs. Or, rather, to China.

    And Uncle Sam has done Absolutely Nothing to enhance the quality of education nationally amongst the population. But that is what its Brave New World of an economy almost entirely dependent upon Services Industries is going to force America to undertake.

    The young-adults must get a Post-secondary Level of education or their lifestyles will stagnate seriously at much lower income-levels. For that to happen the ridiculously high average-cost of a Tertiary Education (around $25K a year) must stop ...
     
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  25. lemmiwinx

    lemmiwinx Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    High incomes for everyonm
    High incomes for all then. I'm convinced let's give it a try. Everyone gets the same salary be it a garbage collector or Bill Gates.
     
    Last edited: May 12, 2021

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