A rare lay press article that gets everything right regarding Delta

It is about viral load

An unvaccinated person can build up a much much higher viral load than a vaccinated person just like being indoors where there is poor air conditioning with an infected person will ensure you are exposed to more virus than if you were outdoors and standing upwind. This is why it is such a crying tearing shame that masks became so politicised. With a combination of masking and vaccines we could really choke the spread of this thing

 

During mask mandates before, cases climbed. They did not fall. They never came back down until the vaccines were available. With Delta, it is over twice as contagious as the original variants, which means that cases would climb even faster under new mask mandates than the previous mask mandates. Also, there are a ton more "breakthrough" cases with Delta than before Delta. And breakthrough cases are very misleading because many of the vaccinated are spreading the virus, and they aren't actually diagnosed as breakthrough cases because they are not sick enough to be tested but are spreading Delta nonetheless and are not reported breakthrough cases.

People are fooling themselves if they think Delta will get under control if we are all vaccinated and start wearing masks again. The only thing you can really argue is that with vaccines, there is a huge chance that if you get infected you won't wind up in the hospital or die. That's it and I admit, that's big. But, it is NOT unvaccinated people who are responsible for increasing cases and we are not going to get Delta case numbers down by being vaccinated and/or wearing masks. In fact, since there are more vaccinated people than unvaccinated people, the vaccinated are actually spreading Delta more than the unvaccinated are.

 

And yet elsewhere in the world masks WORKED. Mind you the Australian experience has been to use a combination of short lockdowns, masks and effective contact tracing.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-06/nsw-covid-delta-outdoor-transmission-risk/100353394

 

The "vaccine program," whatever that means, has "failed" in what way?

Modify the vaccine. The alternative is what? Get it and develop immunity by getting it?

 

I don't disagree with some of what you're saying. Yes, of course we (meaning, we the scientific community) knew very well it was aerosol transmission... and we were the ones who protested and pressured the WHO to recognize it.

Yes, we won't reach herd immunity. Yes, we'll end up with endemic SARS-CoV-2.

But no, you are CURRENTLY wrong about the amount of protection the vaccines yield against the Delta. It is blatantly wrong to say "vaccinations don't stop Delta, not one bit" - it contradicts the data.

But yes, that protection may fall down any moment if additional variants of concern pop up, and they likely will. This an evolving situation, and it will change. WHEN it does, then maybe you'll be right about it, but it hasn't changed yet.

Look, I don't think you'll believe me (although I know what I'm saying). Whatever. I think you are allowing yourself to be influenced by bombastic media that uses information selectively and in a distorted manner, rather than scientific data, but then, you're not alone in doing that. I have little hope that scientific facts will sway lay people who hear otherwise from distorted sources. So, be may guest, keep believing that the vaccines are impotent against the Delta, when they aren't.

 

All of the variants of concern. Look at my thread about the variants for a full explanation.
http://www.politicalforum.com/index.php?threads/sars-cov-2-variants.584511/
Having a mutation in the spike protein doesn't mean the vaccines become immediately useless. The spike protein is big and has several regions. The variants have multiple mutations. When they have a sufficient number of mutations in the spike protein (of course the virus has several other proteins, not just the spike) and these mutations enhance either infectiousness or lethality or antigenic drift or a combination of these, they get called variants of concern.
Look especially at this post that names the mutations:
http://www.politicalforum.com/index.php?threads/sars-cov-2-variants.584511/#post-1072472494

 

the spikes are the viruses keys to the cell, if they change that much, the keys probably will no longer work

it can happen, just less likely

 

Not really, the mutations are in order to facilitate the key to the cells (positive evolutionary trait). That's precisely why the new variants are more contagious. They adhere better to the ACE-2 receptors in the cells.

There are mutations that go the other way around... and these viruses then don't survive and don't spread.

The ones that are surging are the ones that have an advantage in infectiousness.

 

That they rose or fell is attributable to what factors--and why?

You're saying masks cause an increase in transmission? Based on what?

Speculation. How about some evidence?

It will be under better control.

So, how come almost everyone in hospital for covid is unvaccinated?

You might think about this one.

 

Holy freaking cow, we had 121,000 new cases today!!! This is going very, very poorly!!! The increase has been very sharp, and we're still in the summer with high temperatures. The way things are going, we'll be back to square zero in the fall and winter. The upward curve now is as sharply up as it was in November, so, we may be headed to a *huge* surge.

Or not, there's been a drop in Europe, and we're delayed in regards to them, so, who knows? It's been harder and harder to predict things, these days. This virus is very unpredictable.

Anyway, the virus is still showing that when people say "it's over" the virus is unimpressed.

 

not really what? When they change enough that the vaccine no longer works? that has not happened yet, the odd are less that it will, but as I said... it could

 

"Not really," what you said about the spike mutating so much that the virus can't attach to cells. This does happen, but then that variant goes kaput. It's the ones that attach better to the cell, that is, the ones that have an evolutionary advantage, that take over. No, I didn't imply that they have changed enough already that the vaccine no longer works. If you follow my posting you'll see that I've been saying the opposite.

 

Yes, it sounds like we blew our chance and amazingly even now there are still community leaders (like governors) doing their best to stand in the way. For example Florida schools are banned from asking kids to wear masks. Its absurd. Lot of parents will not allow their kids to go to school knowing they'll come back crawling with viruses and potentially infect more vulnerable family members.

 

I'm tellin ya:

https://news.yahoo.com/israel-vaccinated-fast-looked-had-113759148.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/del...ective-in-israel-prevents-severe-illness.html

 

that is what I was saying, sounds like we are saying the same thing

if the spike mutates too much that the vaccine doesn't work, it probably won't be able to enter the celll anymore, now as I said, it could, just less likely

 

You are not telling me anything. You're just going by the media, which distorts all the time.

 

Again, you are not really understanding this.

Months ago last time I checked, there were 300,000 mutations since the pandemic started.

Most mutations don't do anything, or they confer a disadvantage, which then makes that strain go kaput.

If a strain mutates BOTH to evade antibodies AND to have the spike protein so altered that it no longer adheres to the ACE-2 receptors, that mutated strain will last all of a couple of minutes until it dies out... so that is irrelevant. A strain that is not able to enter the cell anymore cannot replicate (viruses do not replicate outside cells) so it is a non-factor.

What typically happens is that mutations that confer to the spike protein a BETTER ability to attach to the cells, are the ones that predominate and spread, like the Alpha and the Delta (because these mutations make them more infectious). These mutated strains may or may not ALSO have additional mutations that confer an antigenic drift, evading antibodies. It's not really the case for Alpha but is the case for Delta, which is why we say that Delta is Covid on steroids; both more infections and better equipped to re-infect and to evade vaccines.

The variants of concern have in average 12 to 20 mutations in their spike proteins (and others elsewhere). Some of these mutations are very significant, some aren't. In my thread about the variants, I listed each mutation and its significance. Won't redo it here for lack of time but you can use the search function to get to that thread, searching the keyword variants as required to be in the title of the thread, and me as the author.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/england-says-delta-infections-produce-105701728.html

Are you saying that we shouldn't trust the media when they tell us we should get vaccinated?

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/england-says-delta-infections-produce-105701728.html

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/england-says-delta-infections-produce-105701728.html

 

LOL. The Australians are using army helicopters to chase people back into their homes.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/england-says-delta-infections-produce-105701728.html

 

You can quote 1,000 lay press articles. I go by the actual percentage of breakthrough infections as compared to the total number of vaccinated people, which remains small. I'm not interested in the least in your lay press articles. Have a nice day. No time to waste with that.

 

If you see a medical expert being interviewed in the media and he/she says you should take it, then you might want to listen. In the other hand, if you see a political panel offer opinions in the media, then you might want to take it with a grain of salt.

Common sense.

Discernment!

 

I understand, and your basically saying the same as I am

I do not care about the mutations that can no longer cause us harm, so they don't really count