Will the War in Gaza Ignite the Middle East?..Israel and Iran On a Collision Course

"You don't win a war by dying for his country, you win a war by making the other poor dumb btard die for his"... GEN George Patton

So we can take your CIVILIAN expertise .... or believe one of the greatest Generals that ever lived... hmmmm...... LOLOLOL

 

They have been displaced by bombing, not Israeli ground control of where they lived.

You skipped over sharing your expertise regarding Bint Jbeil in 2006. I was looking forward to it...

 

I'm more into the Battle of 73 Easting and, of course, Makin Island. I'm American and those Battles affect me directly. Bint Jbeil affects me about as much as the Vadamarachchi Operation.

 

Bint Jbeil seems a lot more relevant to the dynamics in this war. In fact, I have 2 different theories as to how/why Israel could be so incompetent and achieve so little militarily despite all the advantages over Hamas anyone could ask. The first draws lessons from Bint Jbeil showing this generation in the IDF very incompetent fighting a committed, well trained foe. The second: perhaps its by design to drag this long enough to see Gazans forced out or killed (genocide) and/or for Netanyahu to buy himself more time as PM and avoid the charges against him...

 

2006 was a long time ago. The IDF is very dynamic and changes rapidly.

 

Boom! Chukka-lukka-lukka.
Senior Hamas leader killed in Beirut blast, group says
An explosion in a Beirut suburb Tuesday killed Saleh Arouri, a senior Hamas official, the group said. A U.S. defense official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive operations, said the Israel Defense Forces was responsible for a strike targeting Arouri and that an assessment of whether he had been killed was ongoing. At least six people died in the explosion, Lebanon’s state news agency reported. Hamas said Israel had carried out “cowardly assassinations” and that two leaders of Hamas’s elite Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades had also been killed. The IDF declined to comment on the blast.

 

The Israelis did this right when negotiations that involve a long term truce had reached an advanced state. The Israelis know full well that both Hezbollah and Iran believe Hamas is winning the war and the only hope left for Netanyahu is to expand the war and ultimately drag the US into the war. The Israeli thinking is that they can get away with these kind of lawless actions given the reluctance of Iran not to play into Israel's hand. But they may be overestimating Hezbollah's restraint. I expect Israel to get pounded real hard by Hezbollah. But other than heightened risk of an expanded war, this war in Gaza is pretty much near its end. The Israeli are beginning to prepare their public for that.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...rael-hamas-gaza-war-live-updates/72081870007/
Israel in 'World War III' with Hamas and Iran, foreign minister says: Live updates

 

As you wish.

 

Top Hamas official Saleh Arouri killed in Beirut blast
Lebanon's state-run National News Agency said the blast killed four people and was carried out by an Israeli drone. Israeli officials declined to comment.

It could mark a major escalation »

 

Which part has anything to do with my wish?

 

I think your entire view is wishful thinking.

 

You are confusing your thinking with mine. In my thinking, Israel trapped itself in a losing proposition by its propaganda and grandiose war objectives at the start of the war. You fell for the propaganda, repeatedly saying Hamas will be "destroyed". As you are fond of saying: we will see.

 

Displaced by bombs or displaced by ground combat makes little difference to those displaced.
I'm more interested in 2024 than 2006.
Bint Jbeil is of little interest to me. I am much more interested in the readiness of the 82d Airborne, 101st Airmobile, First Cav and the Big Red One.
You are interested in the minor leagues. I'm a Big League fan.

 

The destruction of Hamas is under way.

 

I just finished listening to Nasrollah's speech in Lebanon. I will share my views on that speech, and the terrorist attack in Iran later. But for now, among the possible suspects behind the attack (ISIS/Sunni extremists, domestic terrorism, Israel, US or a combination thereof), I have only heard the US directly condemn the attack and disavow any involvement (albeit also saying Israel wasn't involved).

https://www.barrons.com/articles/israel-us-not-behind-iran-blasts-us-state-dept-628ca7bf
US Says Israel Not Behind Iran Blast, Warns Against Escalation

 

Happy New Year, @Iranian Monitor !

In your estimation, what is the overall situation vis-à-vis Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, and Israel today (January 4, 2023).

You always have interesting and well-informed commentary, so, I'm hoping you may be able to cast some new light through the fog that's begun to obscure this story by the "news" media. My own view is that the ruling theocracy in Tehran is about to get itself into a very dangerous, destabilised situation if it continues to act aggressively through its Houthi proxy-army. Not everyone even cares about Israel vs. Hamas, frankly -- but everybody in the world cares about international shipping!

 

Happy New Year to you. The Persian New Year, Norooz, I should mention, starts with the spring equinox, marking the first day of the new year in our calendar too.

I don't see much evidence Israel is winning the war in Gaza. Not militarily. The Israelis have said that war will be fought for another year, although I think that won't be the case. But my prediction now is that we will see an expanded war sooner or later. There was a major terrorist attack on Iran yesterday; despite the US condemning that attack and saying it didn't think Israel was behind it, Iran has blamed both the US and Israel. There have also been several attacks targeting different figures outside Iran whose assassinations Hezbollah will likely respond to. These events plus the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have IMO raised the stakes high enough that despite neither Iran nor the US government wanting a wider war (Netanyahu does want such a war), the chances of it heading in that are over 60%.

I expect things to get very hot the next few days. Maybe even in the next 24 hours. But almost certainly in the next 4-5 days. Afterwards, we can better judge where all this is heading.

 

It seems ISIS has now claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack inside Iran. That changes my outlook on how likely a wider war may be. Still above 50/50...

 

Your thinking about where this is going parallels remarkably what a quite knowledgeable friend of mine in Germany told me just yesterday. He is usually calm and imperturbable about many international 'events', but he was uncustomarily animated about the attacks that occurred during the large memorial for Gen. Soleimani earlier this week, and what it may mean for everyone in the immediate future. If I were an Israeli, I'd be watching Hezbollah with the eyes of a hawk from now on....

 

When I heard this, I was quite frankly curious about your opinion. I thought you might have thought ISIS was acting as a US or Israeli proxy.

 

I was not surprised when ISIS claimed credit for the bombings in Iran. The attack was much more their style than that of either Israel or the US.

 

That certainly raises questions for me. What is ISIS's relationship with Iran that they would bomb people there? Why does this group seem to want everyone dead?

 

ISIS claims responsibility for deadliest attack in Iran since 1979 revolution

By Eyad Kourdi and Jennifer Deaton, CNN
3 minute read
Updated 4:23 PM EST, Thu January 4, 2024

...

The statement, titled “And Kill Them Wherever You Find Them,” named the two bombers and said they targeted a gathering of “polytheists” near the grave of their “dead leader” Soleimani.

ISIS considers the Shia branch of Islam to be heretical and has targeted shrines and religious sites in Iran previously.

The group offered no further proof and their account of the blasts differs from that given by Iranian media. The death toll provided by ISIS was also significantly higher than that reported by Iranian officials.

... https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/04/middleeast/iran-islamic-state-attack-kerman-intl/index.html​

Seems like a good opportunity for the Iranian regime to find some common ground with Israel, the USA and others to combat good ol' Daesh.

 

As I understand it (and I am not an expert) ISIS is actually a Sunni Muslim organization, whereas Iran seems to be a sort of 'heartland' for the Shi'a Muslim organization. Both Sunni and Shi'a are sects within Islam, with Sunni Muslims comprising 90% if the world's Muslims, and Shiites making up the remaining 10%.

Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shia–Sunni_divide

The differences between them is very deep and intractable. My limited understanding is that they hate each other passionately, and each considers the other to be apostate and anathema. Indeed, when they aren't engaged in hating and fighting against members of other religions, such as Judaism and Christianity, they turn on each other.

Perhaps that explains why ISIS (or ISIL as it is sometimes called) committed this act of deliberate murder and destruction against people in Iran who had come to attend a memorial gathering of some kind for an Iranian general who was killed in an American missile strike in Iraq. That's all I know, and I suggest that our fellow participant, @Iranian Monitor may be much better able than me to explain what happened between ISIS and Iran that would cause an attack like this to occur.

 

ISIS promotes a virulently anti-Shia and anti-Iranian ideology. They believe pristine or true Islam was generally (Sunni and Shia alike) corrupted under Persian influence for centuries -- and that this was doubly true of the Shia Persians who infused their beliefs into Shia Islam even more. Their vision is to return Islam to its pristine Arabian origins centered exclusively on the Koran, the Hadith (sayings of the prophet) and the consensus in 7th century Arabia when it comes to interpretation of Islamic precepts. The Persianate culture I have spoken here as being in vogue before Westernization does not sit well with them at all, partly because Arabia quickly became sidelined, and became a backwater in Islamic history, long before westernization ended the Persianate or Turco-Persian tradition.

As for the "polytheists" charge leveled in their message, it is related to the concept of "infallible Imams" (akin to the Pope in Catholicism) who the Shia believed should have been entrusted with guardianship of the Islamic community instead or the worldly caliphs that got the job instead. Also, because of the more dualistic nature of Zoroastrian beliefs compared to strictly monotheistic Islam. (ISIS views Shia Persians still as crypto-Zoroastrians and sometimes calls Iranians "fire-worshipers"). Either way, it ultimately touches on the fact that the Persian Islamic tradition does not focus as much on scripture and does use various methodologies outside scripture and its 7th century interpretation in Arabia.

Incidentally, although made several years ago during the Syrian civil war, this movie in some ways provides a good cinematic account of Iran's view of that war with subtle and not-so-subtle hints on how Iran sometimes paints ISIS as working in collaboration with western powers. I strongly recommend you try watching it -- this one dubbed in English.