Will the War in Gaza Ignite the Middle East?..Israel and Iran On a Collision Course

The disregard for human life inherent to the mass violence we call "war" continues to amaze me. Humanity truly is a dangerous, savage child race. People get so worked up about terrorists and abortion and such, but when it comes to war, well, **** happens.

 

That's what I said once about a possible nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan: OK so long as they hit what they aim at.

 

Yes. But we all need to stop cheering war more consistently.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/18/world/middleeast/iran-missile-program.html
Iran’s New Missile Fleet: Part Deterrent, Part Sales Pitch
Last year, the world discovered that Iran’s drones were becoming world-class threats and a favorite of the Russians. Now, its revived missile fleet is drawing attention, too.

 

I just saw a Fox News Alert that Pakistan has just struck 'terrorist' targets in Iran. LOL! Talk about the war in the Middle East and now South Asia has ignited.

 

No war has ignited. Stop listening to FOX. You can find out about the issue in my earlier posts here.

 

Looks like Iran may have overstepped. They may not fear the US, but I think they do fear China.

China pushes for safety of Red Sea shipping as threat to its economy grows



China has called on “all relevant parties” to “ensure the safety of navigation in the Red Sea” as analysts warned that Houthi rebels’ attacks on commercial ships threaten the world’s second-largest economy. Beijing’s call for action to protect the global trade route came as the US is believed to have reached out to China over whether it can apply pressure on Iran, which backs the Yemen-based Houthis. China has warm relations with Tehran. But China’s Ministry of Commerce stopped short of signalling diplomatic or military assistance to defuse the crisis in the waterway. “The Red Sea is an important international trade route,” a ministry spokesperson said on Thursday, adding that China would “strengthen co-ordination with relevant departments, closely follow the developments and provide timely support and assistance to foreign trade enterprises”. The US and the UK have launched a series of strikes over the past week against the Houthis, who have vowed to continue their campaign in response to Israel’s invasion of Gaza.

 

It seems that the US warned Iran about the ISIS terror attack.

". . . The US secretly warned Iran that ISIS was planning a potential terror attack inside Iran’s borders before the group carried out a deadly attack near the burial site of slain military commander leaving the page." data-wf-tooltip-position="bottom" style="position: relative;">Qasem Soleimani on January 3, according to a US official.

The private warning was based on intelligence the US had obtained about ISIS’ plans and was given to Iran based on the US government’s “duty to warn” policy, the official said. That policy applies even to US adversaries.

The private warning, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, is notable not only because Iran is not a US partner or ally, but also because officials say Iran is behind a recent uptick in attacks by its proxy militias against US personnel in the Middle East. It is not clear through what channels the US delivered the message to Iran given that the countries have no formal diplomatic relations.

“Prior to ISIS’ terrorist attack on January 3, 2024, in Kerman, Iran, the US government provided Iran with a private warning that there was a terrorist threat within Iranian borders,” the official said. “The US government followed a longstanding ‘duty to warn’ policy that has been implemented across administrations to warn governments against potential lethal threats. We provide these warnings in part because we do not want to see innocent lives lost in terror attacks.”. . . ."

• 
  U.S. secretly warned Iran before terror attack that killed 84

 

100%. It has already expanded. Iran's proxies are making war as we speak on Israel and the international shipping sector. The question is what and when will the consequences occur. My guess is that they will arise shortly after the U.S. voters have changed the federal government administration. When that happens it will likely be more painful for Iran to be an active enemy of the U.S. I may be wrong but I hope I'm not.

 

Some people like to live through their fears and others their hopes. But I still don't understand what on earth, besides utter propaganda, would lead anyone to imagine that Iran "fears" China? Or that China has done anything to Iran to illicit "fear"?

China has a largely pragmatic, materialistic, mercantilist, foreign policy. Not the stuff that turns even the wealthiest into any sort of leaders. What the Chinese have to sell are the products from its neo-slave economy which has made some quasi neo-slave owners wealthy. But alas their best customers are still residing in the West. And, alas, the Chinese are also very interested in the maintaining the credibility of the Ponzi scheme global economic order in which they have managed to work themselves close to the top of the pyramid. Sure, those on the very top like to kick them down and find new slaves in India and elsewhere with more mineable slave-owners to work with, but ultimately the Chinese are still playing and investing in this Ponzi game. Hence, when the US asked them to convey America's "regards" to Iran, they dutifully complied. The problem is that those in Iran who are also into these dollars and cents games, have so very little leverage with the Houthis. A group that lives and follows its own rules, undeterred by bombs and missiles of a superpower much less any dictates from Iran.

 

Thanks for your very insightful observations on a situation that can only enflame the whole region because of Netanyahu's genocide (1) and America's criminal complicity.

I have repeatedly asked supporters of Netanyahu's genocide about Netanyahu's End Game and how Israel will be any more secure by incurring the justified anger of the world's 2.7 Billion Muslims.

What is obvious to anyone who has spent time in the Middle East and studied it for over 60 years is that Netanyahu's "war" on Gaza and America's criminal complicity will only make both Israel and the US much less safe.

As Muslims are already targeting US interests abroad, it's only a matter of time before Americans begin to see future incidents like 9/11 and America will only have its parasitic Israeli lobbies, cowardly politicians and traitorous infestation of "Israel Firsters" to blame.

The only way to avoid an enormous and avoidable loss of life and resources from Netanyahu's genocidal madness is for AIPAC's US Politicians to cut all aid to Israel until it complies with International Law.

AIPAC was "quietly successful" in getting Americans to die fighting its wars before(1) and is eager to send more young American G.I.s to die for Zionist genocide and "Greater Israel".

Thanks again,


(1). “QUIETLY LOBBYING CONGRESS TO APPROVE THE USE OF FORCE IN IRAQ WAS ONE OF AIPAC’S SUCCESSES OVER THE PAST YEAR.”
AIPAC Executive Director Howard Kohr; N.Y. Sun, Jan. 2003

 

The region is enflamed because Iran has surrounded Israel with its militia groups, and because it is harassing global trade through them, probably with a green light from Putin in response to Biden's crusade to stop him from occupying fellow Russians that the Ukranian government decided to completely alienate after 2014.

Not justified if the only reason for the anger is animosity toward a non-Muslim nation for engaging in war with a Muslim nation regardless of the circumstances that led to the conflict.

And Thais. And Germans. In fact, the opposition to Israel will butcher/kidnap citizens of any nation for their "cause", regardless of that people's relevance to their plight. These people would kill a native of a remote Amazonian tribe for publicity for their cause.

As I've said for years, Iran is the chaos agent in the region, so the blame would lie with them and their terrorists and militias first, then the Biden administration for allowing the perpetrators to walk right in, because in the event of a future terrorist attack, that's almost certainly going to be how the perpetrators got here.

Oh we agree! I don't like how Israel is "getting Hamas" either, and I don't want to fund it. However, I still agree with the Iron Dome munitions because without them, the Israelis would've already attacked Iran with the explicit goal of regime change and disarmament.

 

You think China is doing the bidding of the United States? As you've pointed out, they are heavily invested in the system of international trade that Iran's proxies, the Houthis, are trying to disrupt. I doubt the Chinese care at all about US concerns about international trade but they do care about their concerns.

And yes, I do think the Houthis care what the people who are financing them think. Iran does have leverage, which is why the Chinese approached Iran about this in the first place. This is a group that "lives and follows it's own rules" only as long as someone is paying the bills.

 

I think you vastly overestimate China's leverage on Iran and Iran's leverage over the Houthis. I would say the facts speak for themselves:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68110358
Houthis attack British-linked tanker Marlin Luanda in Gulf of Aden

 

This list is from "Naval News", the official newspaper of the British Royal Navy.

Please note the list pertains only to what has been supplied to the Houthis. Iran's inventory of anti-ship systems is considerably more diverse and far more potent, with Iran's anti-ship ballistic missiles carrying 750-1,000kg warheads.

Btw, the tanker hit by the Houthis was British but was carrying Russian oil, presumably to Israel.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-new...anian-houthi-attacks-on-ships-in-the-red-sea/

 

I'm not sure your article makes your case that Iran's leverage over the Houthis is minor. They would be out of business without Iran's support. Are you trying to say that Iran has no control or responsibility over the Houthis? I'm not sure I buy that. Otherwise they would have run out of "beans and bullets" a long time ago.

 

Iran needs the Houthis as part of its overall defense strategy as much the Houthis need Iran. The Houthis know Iran is not going to undermine its own defensive strategy simply to appease the US or China. The balance of all these different leverages translates to news such as the one I posted.

 

OK...so in other words, the Houthis are proxies for Iran and Iran does have some control over them. That was my point.

 

That is not my definition of a "proxy", but semantic arguments aren't very interesting to me anyway. What is more interesting is seeing the Biden administration do what Trump did viz a viz Russia in Syria, with now China in the region. In return, the Russians wanted guarantees from Trump on Ukraine and now the Chinese want them regarding Taiwan.

 

An area which Iran has been working to improve. And no, its not this bs about its ballistic missile program, regarding which Iran doesn't need space launch vehicles to test and perfect. It does that separately and test fires its ballistic missiles when it needs to anyway. The real alarm, buried beneath the typical lies, hypocrisy, and propaganda by the west, is Iran being able to have its own eyes in space. The latter indeed very important militarily, both for purposes of using satellite not controlled by foreign countries for its targets in war time as well as a zillion other both military and non-military purposes.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...neously-launches-three-satellites-state-media
Iran Simultaneously Launches Three Satellites - State Media

 

Really? Where did the Houties get the missiles they are firing? Do they have a missile factory in Sanaa? No they get them from Iran. What is their purpose in firing on ships in the Red Sea? Are they just angry that Palestinians have died? Or were they ordered to do it by Iran? Guess what answer the U.S. and Israeli intelligence services provide? China's leverage over Iran is not really clear. Iran's leverage over Hamas, Hezbolla and the Houties is quite clear to the Israeli and U.S. governments. You are a smart and knowledgeable person but your propaganda is weak.

 

Iran has different type of relations with each of these groups. Its relationship to Hezbollah is similar to the relationship between the US and Israel. Its relationship to the Houthis more akin to the US relationship to say Ukraine's government. There are some militia and forces in Syria and a few in Iraq (not most), however, that come close to being true proxies. My assessment is actually similar to how these groups' ties are described in informed and more reputable US sources, to include the US government (when it isn't engaging in propaganda).

 

I don't think that it's accurate to blame Iran for the suspicious and tragic events on and after 7 October 2023 because Palestine's native residents have been resisting Israel's ethnic cleansing / genocide and expansionism when Iran was under the control of the Shah Pahlavi.
If Israel were compelled to adhere to International Law (UN Resolutions # 242 and # 33 the Palestinians would have no reason to resist if let alone.
Israel's relentless expansionism and land theft is responsible for much of the carnage in the Levant and it's repeated attempts to invade and occupy the Litani River valley caused Hezbollah to humiliate and expel IDF in 2006.
Yes, Iran who is supportive of Palestinian resistance may be aiding Hamas and Hezbollah but they would not likely be doing so if it were not for US Government aiding and abetting Zionist ethnic cleansing / genocide and land theft.

Re:

I spent 10 - 11 months walking and hitch hiking throughout the Islamic Middle East and with a red beard and blue eyes was an obvious Westerner. However, I was treated wonderfully by countless Muslims who frequently treated me as a curious celebrity. The many Muslims who gave me rides, provided shelter and insisted on paying for my meals were fascinated by America.
In the more remote villages, My Muslim host would insist on introducing me to his friends who also wanted to know all about life in America; American food, American movies, American cars, American music. Sometimes, I would spent hours attempting to communicate with a group of friendly Muslim men who were overwhelmingly curious and, according the Muslim customs, generous and hospitable to travelers.

Inevitably, the East - West conflict would come up and the two questions I was asked most frequently were:
1. "Why do Americans suddenly hate us?"
2. "Why does America help Israel kill Palestinians and steal their land?"

I tried to explain the detrimental effects of pro Israel Western MSM and the destructive influence of Israeli lobbies over Middle East policy making but the Muslims still couldn't how people as advanced and sophisticated as Americans could be so easily duped and manipulated nor can I.

Re:

Iran was invaded by the Russians and the British in 1941, had its oil plundered by the British through the Anglo-Iranian oil company and Iran's democratically elected P.M. Mossadegh was overthrown in 1953 by the British and the American CIA, then replaced by the Shah and his brutal SAVAK who controlled Iran until the recent revolution in 1979.
Therefore, Iran has neither the resources nor the influence to be the "chaos agent of the region".
Additionally, Iran has neither expanded its borders or started a war in 300 years.

The artificial imposition of Israel on Palestine, abrogation of the McMahon Agreement (1915) and unconditional US support of Israeli genocide, expansionism and regional hegemony has done far more to enflame the Middle East than Iran.

Re:

Not only do you and I agree that Israel's excesses in "getting Hamas" but most of the world condemns Israel's murderous collective punishment that will only make Israelis and Jews around the world less safe in the long run.

Israel is not going to invest its own blood and resources in an attack on Iran. They are more likely going to manipulate the US into sacrificing the resources and blood of young American G.I.s through another False Flag attack on an American ship like the USS Liberty or America's traitorous infestation of Israeli lobbies will, again, be "quietly successful" in driving Americans to fight yet another war for regional Israeli hegemony / "Greater Israel".

Finally, Iran's neighbors and the world's 2.7 Billion Muslims are not going to let Israel and the US attack Iran with impunity. Such transparent aggression will almost certainly trigger a WW 3 to curse us and future generations.

Thanks,



- “QUIETLY LOBBYING CONGRESS TO APPROVE THE USE OF FORCE IN IRAQ WAS ONE OF AIPAC’S SUCCESSES OVER THE PAST YEAR.”
AIPAC Executive Director Howard Kohr; N.Y. Sun, Jan. 2003


- "Top Pentagon adviser says ‘Israeli lobby’ funds officials who want war"

"Douglas Macgregor blamed pro-Israel policy for driving the United States into the Iraq conflict after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks,"
https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/anti...eli-lobby-funds-officials-who-want-war-649228

EXCERPT "Douglas Macgregor, a top adviser to President Donald Trump’s new acting defense secretary, routinely blames “the Israeli lobby” and “neocons” for pushing the United States into wars.

CNN’s KFile uncovered interviews in which Macgregor, a decorated combat veteran who appears frequently on Fox News and other conservative media, says “pro-Israel” donors and the pro-Israel lobby are behind efforts to drive the United States into war." CONTINUED

 

I think you are mixing some not related issues together.

But as far as Houthis being a proxy of Iran, I don't think it's semantics at all. They are a group that is materially dependent on Iran to function. Ammunition, weapons, massive technical support...all being provided by Iran.

You seem to be saying that they are a separate group with a separate agenda that has nothing to do with Iran and Iran has no influence with them. It's been obvious for several years (long before October 7th) that wasn't true. If you don't like the word proxy to describe the Houthis relationship with Iran, you can pick another word, like intermediary, or surrogate, but it seems clear that the Houthis are the glove and the Iranians are the fist.

 

I said your propaganda is weak. I say it again. Take care.

 

Here is a piece (coauthored by someone who teaches at the Army War College) published today describing Iran's relationship to various groups. The terms used are more telling than the ones you suggest:

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-co...ah-hamas-houthis-fuel-iran-axis-of-resistance
How Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis Fuel Iran's 'Axis of Resistance'