Romney Takes Lead in Ohio as Obama Campaign Panics

How exactly is Nate Silver's projections partisan?

 

As did practically everybody. Turnout is much more difficult to predict in local off year races. But Rasmussen was perfect in their turnout model for 2008. They're two different animals, and no on can match them on accuracy in presidential elections.

 

They don't agree with his.

That's reason enough.

 

Presidential Polls: Romney Takes Lead In Electoral College Projection


You can go to real clear politics and count the leans Romney and likely Romney and
predict that Romney wins it all. Most all the tossups will go Romney.

Note that Florida is Romney's now and that is not a toss-up as they suggest.

That's 29 more right there for Romney so Romney is currently in the lead with 220 vs 201 for Obama.

The victory is in sight for Romney if you are not blinded by liberal lies.

I heard there is alot of swearing going on in the Obama camp!

 

Better yet, why don't YOU go take a look at what RCP says today.

 

No, they blew it worse than anyone else.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

They missed by an average of 5.8 percentage points, and showed a very strong GOP lean. One of their polls, in the Hawaii Senate race, missed the final margin by 40(!!!!) points. That shouldn't even be possible.

The best polls of the cycle were SurveyUSA and Quinnipac, who missed the final result by 3.5 and 3.3 percentage points respectively -- and equally importantly, showed little bias in either direction.

Every pollster will have good cycles and bad cycles, even if their methodology is unimpeachable. That's why it's just dumb to focus on a single pollster as if they have some special insight. It's especially true with a pollster like Rasmussen, whose lean has been persistent in every cycle since at least 2002.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

201 Obama/Biden
191 Romney/Ryan

Blue means Obama.
Red means Romney.
Grey means toss up.

 

they told us McCain was gonna win by a landslide too... only one poll that counts

 

You know that's gonna leave a mark. LOL!

Don't get oppertunities like that every day, no?

It's even color coded for those who don't know numbers. LOL!

I wonder what he thinks of RCP now?

 

I do not support Obama, but I am objective enough to see so much fail in what the OP posted. First off nice assumption of panic in the Obama Campaign... doubt Obama would agree with, but your post plays well with the Choir. As for polls, they really do not impress me, there is a margin of error that can be a significant factor in a very close poll... and from what I see things are close and all we can do is speculate. But none the less Obama supporters have their polls and diss the Romney polls and vice versa. Just political posturing and low brow chest beating IMO.

 

Who's "they"?

 

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Well, with Sammy, it's pretty much close to every day.

 

Real Clear Politics is a behind the trend if anything.

But ignoring that, the Romney win is predicted at RCP as we type.

Note Rasmussen: Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 48%
Mitt Romney leads President Obama, 50% to 49%, among likely Florida voters, according to a new poll released Monday by CNN/ORC International.


The swing states are now moving to Romney, but Florida has been Romney country solidly.

Anybody that has spent 4 years campaigning as Obama has, should panic.

Battleground poll projects Romney win
http://www.humanevents.com/2012/10/29/battleground-poll-projects-romney-win/

 

Obama will get his peeps out there. His peeps usually get avoided by the pollsters.

 

Um, no.

LOL! So you're entire "analysis" is "Romney is ahead in Florida, so he has it sewn up."

Sure. That's why the "no toss-ups" map shows Obama winning:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

Note he wins without Florida. Or Virgina. Or North Carolina.

Romney could certainly win this election. But your "analysis" is tripe.

 

Yeah, and during Kerry / Bush election, Kerry was across the board winning but only by small digits. Then swiftboat happened and he started trending down but remained across on many polls winning by small numbers. I remember Fox news was bragging saying "oh that's just citizens lying trying to throw them off".

People when you poll thousands, even tens of thousands you cannot extrapolate that to be millions. The difference in 0's is just to great. The sampling for our polls is atrocious. 10,000 just does not compare any anyway to 126,000,000 (http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_people_vote_in_the_average_US_presidential_election. It's nearly a few magnitude difference.

 

Battleground poll projects Romney win
http://www.humanevents.com/2012/10/2...ts-romney-win/

In a few days all the polls will continue moving in Romney's favor, you will see.

American's don't like where the country is currently heading under Obama, and
Obama can't change that. The closer we get to the election the more accurate these polls become.

A few months ago Obama was way ahead in these polls, but the tide has turned.

 

Sure. But "ground game" is something that matters only at the margins. It'll matter this year, but let's not overstate its importance.

That's a bit of wishful thinking, IMO.

I have a few rules of thumb about polls and commentators:

1. Whoever is saying "polls don't matter" is losing.

2. Whoever talks about how their "ground game" will overcome the polling is losing.

3. Whoever says the polls aren't counting their supporters is losing.

There are bits of truths to all three claims. But usually only the losing side will consider them good talking points. And their effect is usually greatly exaggerated in such talks.

 

Translation: Obama has dispatched trunks stuffed full of ballots for the occasion. Help is on the way.

 

Holy crap man, I was hoping to argue with you some more, that that's all SPOT ON.

 

By this stage of the election, Bush led pretty much the whole way. Kerry's lead had evaporated by the end of August.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

That's simply not true. Study some statistics. There'a a margin of error, and a confidence interval. And the poll methodology has to be carefully designed. But within those caveats, surveying 10,000 people provides *very* good insight into the larger population.

 

Romney surge is no joke, Obama campaign panics as they knew what happened in 2008.

In 2008, President Barack Obama won the independent vote over John McCain by a margin of eight points, 52-44.

This morning, a new Battleground Poll has Mitt Romney massacring Obama among indies by a whopping 16 points, 51-35.

 

The Romney surge is no joke, Obama campaign panics as they know what happened in 2008.

In 2008, President Barack Obama won the independent vote over John McCain by a margin of eight points, 52-44.

This morning, a new Battleground Poll has Mitt Romney massacring Obama among indies by a whopping 16 points, 51-35.

 

OUCH. Talk about leaving a mark. You KNOW that one had to hurt.

 

LOl where are you even getting this crap from?