What To Do About The Long-Term Implications of Automation

Speaking to issues like this- I'd like to point out that our government by way of Congress, in it's total determination to manipulate the economy while simultaneously selling it's influence to various interests, makes the rules- and many of them are stupid rules.

If the players in the game are playing by the rules, then the people to blame for what you don't like are the rule makers.

 

Here is a link to a study by House Democrats.

You may disparage the source, but it will inform you of how Dems see this issue.

If that is what you want to oppose, you might want to understand the argument. You will form better argument if you do.

https://democrats-edworkforce.house...their-effect-on-taxpayers-and-economic-growth

 

What many outside of the US fail to understand is that we don't watch network television anymore. We listen to satellite radio. We use the web to get news. So you really can't blame the media anymore. We pick our exposure these days.

 

This is total nonsense. We are a nation of immigrants. Claiming some special quality is pure conceit.

And, no, we do not have the best smart phones, fastest internet, best transportation, fastest computers, etc.

You are representing the segment of America that is dreaming that America is blessed by some god to be perpetually in front without even trying.

We are less than 5% of the world's brains, and brains are the critical resource going forward.

Do you know what Europe looked like at the end of WWII? Well, they caught back up and they don't plan to slow down. And, the same advent is going on in Asia.

 

It's not anything I will lose sleep over since it's not happening for many decades! In a majority of restaurants the wait staff is already using a computer to input the orders and create the final tab and they work great. It's such a simple step to remove the wait-staff from this process and just let the customer do the input. Again the technology exists today but wait-staff are not being displaced. Maybe someday several decades from now but not in 10-20 years...

 

It's not even slightly that simple.

We certainly do NOT want a rule set that is totally comprehensive. We do not even look at the problem that way. In fact, such an approach would age horribly and cause stagnation - in part because it would be FAR larger than what we have.

We take an iterative approach.

When problems arise, we choose to fix some of the more important ones.

And, that leaves the players (especially those bereft of moral values) free to find new ways to damage America for profit.

 

I certainly agree that America was never blessed from above, and must continually reinvent itself if we want to stay relevant in the world economy. But, lets not forget, we played a significant role in helping Europe catch back up even though much of it was enlightened self interest. A strong Europe gave us a place to sell our goods. The same can be said today. A strong America will give the world a place to sell its goods, as does a strong China. In the end we're all in the same boat, and America has to pull on it's oar as hard as anyone else is pulling on theirs.

>>We are less than 5% of the world's brains, and brains are the critical resource going forward.<<

Yes, but we're the third highest concentration of brains, behind only China, and India.

 

Interesting stat on brains. I'd like to know more about that if you have a link or what to look for.

I was just pointing out that our "raw material" (brain cells) is less than 5% due to our population. And, I would suggest we are far from fully utilizing that resource.

To me, that plus the direction of economic growth and the approach of other countries (China, Germany, etc.) mean we can not afford to coast on education.

 

I'm only using this stat:
"Rank Country or area Population (1 July 2016)
— World 7,466,964,280
1 China 1,403,500,365
2 India 1,324,171,354
3 United States 322,179,605"

How many truly bright people do you have per 100 people, 500 people, 1000 people, however you want to measure it? Sheerly by the size of our population we should have the 3rd highest concentration of truly bright people behind only China and India. And yes, we can't just sit around and waste it, we need to educate them to bring them forward, usually.

 

While I beg to differ on most of that, I particularly point out that we have failed to "fix" anything right, especially important things.
Everything we do is extensively compromised, placing various political special interests ahead of actually getting a system that works.
When the fixes we create fail, we do another 'band-aid' fix to postpone total collapse of it. We do that with such trivial things and the national debt, social security and all the things that should be on solid ground in the first place.

A business can operate that way, borrowing on the future and robbing to peter to pay paul, and continue to exist for a while- but it only postponing the inevitable; is doomed. A nation can do it for a much longer period of time, so broad that the bulk of the consequences will fall on their grandchildren- but the end result is still the same, unless fundamental and sound management takes over- and soon.

 

I'm sure you're right. I just wonder why so many economies -- Italy, Japan, Argentina, Iceland, Greece, Germany, face catastrophes, and then a couple of decades later are as right as rain. It's like there are forces at work in economics that we don't even perceive, much less understand.

 

Ok, but looking at that selection I would point out that every 8 out of 9 of those live in one of those other countries.

Plus, it dodges the EU, which is 1.5 times our population and isn't struggling to emerge. Plus, Germany and others are working hard to get those who can not afford college equal opportunity at advanced degrees with little to no debt once graduated.

I would add that when kids coume out of college debt free (like in Germany and other places) they are far more able to take risks on new technology or otherwise innovate. They are closer to starting new companies and employing people. When we strap them with giant debt, we are channelling them into legacy jobs to ensure they remain afloat.

If we believe in innovation and new technology as the direction the economy is taking, we can not afford to turn out wage slaves - even if the pay is good.

 

"I would point out that every 8 out of 9 of those live in one of those other countries."

What a strange way of looking at that.

Obviously China, and India, are both emerging. What are we going to do, cry about it? No, we're going to take advantage of it.

You're acting like the United States is frozen in time. Like there will be no post Trump era America. Like the only green pastures are elsewhere, such as Europe, or Asia. Like our collection of minds will from this moment forward be held back, while others will be set free. I have a nephew who graduated from Wesleyan, and a niece who graduated from Smith, both in their mid 20s, both debt free, one living in NYC and working for a start up, and one living in Boston working with under privileged children. We aren't dead. We haven't rolled over, we can still think. Not all us are afraid of the greater world, or opposed to working in it, and with it. GW's "Lets get it on", was misdirected. It should have been directed towards our economy, educational system, and technology. It's far from being too late to do that.

"Plus, it dodges the EU, which is 1.5 times our population and isn't struggling to emerge."

Europe has a long way to go before it's working as one, if it ever will.

"The #EU is becoming less monolithic and will develop tiers of membership

But as the EU navigates the challenges of Brexit, migrant flows, a still-problematic eurozone and a hostile neighbourhood, it will need to become more flexible in order to flourish. To his credit, David Cameron got the point. When he renegotiated the terms of Britain’s membership, he won an opt-out from the treaty commitment to “ever closer union”, plus wording that the treaties should not “compel all member-states to aim for a common destination”. The European Commission disliked that language and, together with the French and German governments, prevented Cameron from pushing further in this direction. In any case, the words agreed in February 2016 had no legal standing after the British referendum.

Nevertheless Britain’s vote to leave has helped some policy-makers to recognise that in an EU of 27 members with very different objectives, not everybody will be comfortable signing up to everything. Indeed, some projects – such as common defence – may work better with a smaller number of more committed countries involved."

http://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/bulletin-article/2017/eu-will-become-less-monolithic

The Entrepreneurship subranking is based on an equally weighted average of scores from 10 country attributes that related to how entrepreneurial a country is: connected to the rest of the world, educated population, entrepreneurial, innovative, provides easy access to capital, skilled labor force, technological expertise, transparent business practices, well-developed infrastructure and well-developed legal framework. The Entrepreneurship subranking score had a 17 percent weight in the overall Best Countries ranking.

TOP 5 WINNERS
Germany
#1 in Best Countries: Entrepreneurship

#4 in Best Countries

Germany spends 2.83 percent of its gross domestic product on research and development, according to the World Bank.

Japan
#2 in Best Countries: Entrepreneurship

#5 in Best Countries

Japan spends 3.47 percent of its gross domestic product on research and development.

United States
#3 in Best Countries: Entrepreneurship

#7 in Best Countries

The United States spends 2.73 percent of its gross domestic product on research and development.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/entrepreneurship-rankings

 

I agree that we need smarter people in congress.

And, a related fact that drives me crazy is that our elected officials put in place people in science organizations who know absolutely no science, people in health positions when they know nothing about public health, when the put someone in charge of energy who failed to even notice that it involves nuclear weapons, when we put someone in charge of education who's intent is to ignore the education of our public, people in charge of our environment who are dead set AGAINST protecting our environment from the corporations that want to use our water and air as dumping grounds for their toxic garbage, etc.

When that happens, there can be no well thought out solution in those areas.

We need to start demanding that people who represent us and who run the various departments of our government actually have qualifications.

 

That was a response to a post by someone who suggested we have the third most brains in the world. And, I pointed out that we're a very distant third in that group.

Apparently you missed that!! You should be more careful.

Again, you have failed to read any of my posts, I guess, so you made an absolutely STUPID assumption.

I've spent many posts suggesting a direction. None of those suggested joining you in tears.

It's great when kids can get a full ride, coming out of college without having cost their parents a dime and being debt free. You should be proud.

However, that's not enough when it comes to America as a whole. Once again, we have a fraction of the brains of the world and need to do better than giving a few a full ride while letting so many be slowed by the various factors we could go into.

Now, you're off to the races on some other point. I don't really see a problem in the EU nations not having perfectly aligned technology goals. The USA sure doesn't. And, Germany is 8th in spending as % of gdp on research and development, with other European countries ahead of Germany and the USA trailing that. And, China can have a relatively small percent of their population well educated and still have more educated brains than we have.

Larger spending on R&D is certainly worth discussing, and I'm well aware of the benefits of federal R&D money. But that really does not answer the question being addressed here.

As a general manager of a high tech product development group one of my larger challenges was to find qualified people to do the work we were doing. And, that required scouring the US and Canada as well as other countries to find those capable. While the corporation I worked for has an internationally known name is is doing very well, we could have done far more had we been able to find more top flight engineers. It would have meant that we could have hired others as well to fill out their teams.

In other words, we still need the well educated brains - one of the points of my post.

(The other point is that those who have educations are more likely to be employed throughout their working lives and paying taxes, while those who don't have that usually earn less - even to the point of us having to be taxed to support them. We win when they are educated. It was an important investment to get your kids through school.)

 

That was a response to a post by someone who suggested we have the third most brains in the world. And, I pointed out that we're a very distant third in that group.

In case you are unaware, there are 143, I think, countries in the world.


It's great when kids can get a full ride, coming out of college without having cost their parents a dime and being debt free. You should be proud.

Again, another very strange response. I joined with my younger brother, whose children we're talking about, and our older brother, we all together paid the full cost of their secondary education, no free ride. It's the collective working together for the future.

so you made an absolutely STUPID assumption.

Oh my, I am sorry. Just to make sure, that's STUPID, not mistaken, or something along that line?

Well, I thought we were both Americans, and that we were working together on this problem. I didn't know I had to tread so lightly for fear you'd see me as the enemy.

".... in order to form a more perfect union..."

 

In essence it just means not leaving anyone behind to fend for themselves.

It is one of the biggest problems I have between the concept of "We the People, in Order to...provide for the General Welfare..." and the execution where we have literally abandoned millions of our fellow citizens to fend for themselves in abject poverty on the streets of our wealthiest cities.

The freedom to suffer and starve to death is not enshrined in the Bill of Rights. The freedom to work 2 or 3 jobs at minimum wage and still not be able to lift oneself out of the circumstances they were born into wasn't either. “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free” sounds very noble but it rings hollow to the huddled masses of the poor already here. We pat ourselves on the back and sing the Star Spangled Banner while we avert our eyes from our less fortunate fellow Americans.

Enough with the soap box but the point I am making is that if we are going to come up with a solution to the problems caused by automation we had better make sure that it decreases the numbers of those in poverty because a nation this wealthy should be ashamed and embarrassed to be lagging when it comes to lifting people up out of poverty.

What benefit is automation to humanity if it doesn't alleviate the problem of poverty? Will all this extra time that we have freed up due to automation just mean more time to spend on Facebook chatting about which celebrity wore what to some self congratulating event? Or will it mean more time down at the soup kitchen or the homeless shelter or even just volunteering to take a few inner city kids down to the beach or for a picnic in the country? Yes, there are people who do those things now and more power to them but we need to think about what is the best use we can make of this extra time and see if it can change the lives of others for the better rather than just how it makes our own lives easier.

 

OK, then it didn't actually answer the question of how we can get a larger percent of American brains educated.

Oh, really?

That string of assumptions and your "cry" comment are you working together? I'll try to remember that!

It does sound like you might agree that the Trump era is something we're just going to have to live through.

I do think we need to keep up the pressure. It's not like Trump and his allies control everything.

 

That string of assumptions and your "cry" comment are you working together? I'll try to remember that!

Look, I said what are WE going to do about it, cry? I didn't say, what are YOU going to do about it. I'm not sure you grasp the WE concept. That's a signal that says we are in this together.

how we can get a larger percent of American brains educated.

WE are going to work on the problem. My part is to vote for politicians who are willing to work on the problem, pay my taxes, be willing to have them raised, and help others.

 

I haven't studied the economics of those countries, so I can't comment o them. I can say there some fundamental concepts of success that almost all good businessmen as well as people who manage their own lives well know.

1.- You have a long-term plan and goals, and what you do today is directed toward reaching them.

2.- You manage your finances do that you have reserves, because regardless of how well we plan and prepare s**t happens. If you are prepared for the plan and buffered with reserves for the unknown, then unexpected events are a problem- but not a panic crisis. If you are not prepared, everything is a crisis, and half-assed fixes only postpone crisis to come back larger.

You don't drive your car limiting your vision to 50 ft ahead, because that has the same effect. Our leaders, more importantly our people- are becoming insistent on short term plans, negligent on long-term planning, and unwilling to do the things you must do today to be in sound condition in the future.

 

While I am in total agreement- the question is how we can do that; how we can convince voters to understand the need. Politics seems to be sort of a disease, where everyone that enters it starts by compromising their character and participating in shady deals. It's won't cure easily.

 

Yup, absolutely, wonder how long it will be before we're checking ourselves out, other large chains already have us working for them in that fashion. This is a clear trend, this business of more and more "businesses" tossing off the cost of their business onto the customer, employee or taxpayers.

 

Clinton deregulated the FCC during his administration. There were 50 some odd companies in that arena back in the 1980s, that’s now down to 6 multinational corporations presiding over ~90% of what americans hear, see, read, and sadly for many, buy into. Straight up Edward Bernays stuff. The Wall Street/donor/”job creator” class just bought up the media machine. They do not have any need to listen to “the people” at all, the US media machine is for controlling the people. They've have no trouble ignoring the masses on desired simple gun control legislation, Wall Street bankster bailouts, the Occupy demonstrations, the DAPL demonstrations, the fact that a vast majority supports single payer or any of the rest of it. Our corporate media machine is the voice of the corporate state, not the people, and it is used to foment division, fear, anxiety, and war - always more war.