2020 Electoral Map Based on Polls

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Arkanis, Oct 9, 2020.

  1. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    You're confused, 2016 was before Trump got a chance to build the best economy in the country's history, provide millions of African Americans with middle class jobs, lift millions of poor minority families out of poverty...and still he got more votes than Romney and McCain did before him.

    Now with all these accomplishments in the bag, even your uber-leftist link shows Trump with 10% and 8% undecided, if he gets 2-3% of those undecide, your leftist goose is cooked for a generation, stick a fork in it. Lest we forget the "shy" Trump vote, lest we forget that a number of other polls show Trump getting anywhere between 15 and 25% of African american vote and substantially bigger share of the Latino vote than he did in 2016.
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2020
  2. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    What happened?
    They locked up the Indian vote inside that building.
     
  3. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Looks like you really have been gone for 6 months.
    upload_2020-10-18_9-52-4.png

    upload_2020-10-18_9-56-59.png

    upload_2020-10-18_9-59-24.png
     
  4. Egoboy

    Egoboy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Show one....
     
  5. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    President Trump's support among black voters rose 9 percentage points amid the Republican National Convention, a new Hill-HarrisX poll finds.

    Twenty-four percent of registered black voters in the Aug. 22-25 survey, which included the first two days of the convention, said they approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 76 percent said they disapprove.

    That is up 9 points from the previous survey conducted Aug. 8-11, where the President received 15 percent support among this group.

    The survey found support among Hispanic voters also grew by 2 percentage points, from 30 percent in the last poll to 32 percent in this most recent survey.
    https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-ame...mp-approval-rises-among-black-hispanic-voters

    Here is a recent poll of young black voters... if these numbers stick, the left is dead
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbr...-among-black-and-hispanic-youth/#227c7be52c73
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2020
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  6. Dutch

    Dutch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No you have not, for there is not any.
     
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  7. Dutch

    Dutch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Please do not cryptic.

    What happened?
     
  8. Dutch

    Dutch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Last edited: Oct 18, 2020
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  9. Egoboy

    Egoboy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Job Approval?? That ain't a voting poll, my confused friend....

    And August? A lifetime ago...

    After every post from you, I gain confidence....
     
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  10. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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  11. Dutch

    Dutch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  12. Wrathful_Buddha

    Wrathful_Buddha Well-Known Member

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    Damn, just like Hillary. Biden is gonna win for sure. The numbers don't lie.
     
  13. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  14. Lesh

    Lesh Banned

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    At the time of the election the polls had Clinton up by 2-3 points nationally,. That turned out to mirror the popular vote. Where they were less accurate was in local polling

    And local vote counts in the crucial states ended up being razor thin.

    Were Trump to close to within 3 points...I would be worried. He's on average 9 points up.

    But do NOT be complacent people.

    VOTE
     
  15. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    You wish buddy, the overwhelming majority of the polls that are being shoved down our throats by fake news now had Clinton up by 3-6 points they were off by a lot ... and [gasp] all in Hillary's favor. There was one LA Times outlier which was using a weird methodology the entire cycle. They all sucked big time!

    upload_2020-10-18_15-52-50.png

    and they were worse by far 2-3 weeks before the election which is were we are now, they were off by 5-8% compared to the actual vote. And the state polls were worse, Wisconsin and Minnesota were off by 8-9%.
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2020
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  16. Lesh

    Lesh Banned

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    Look at the average.

    2.1%

    And yes...the polls tightened considerably thanks to Comey
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2020
  17. 3link

    3link Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Why is that? In 2016, Nate Silver repeated warned people that Trump could win.
     
  18. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    Two 2016 polls (LA and Bloomberg) aren't polling this cycle.

    6 out of 7 polls that are still in business were off by whopping 2-4 points which is pretty horrible and pretty one-sided.

    PS polls will tighten soon enough, thanks to Rudy and the Delaware store repair owner ;) buckle up.
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2020
  19. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    There is no shy Covid Boy vote this time. This time his supporters a going full out, nothing shy about it.

    Covid Boy did not built any special economy. The GDP climbed at the same rate as under Obama, around 2 to 2.5 % annually. No once over 3% annually.
    Unemployment declined at the same speed as under Obama.
    That minorities were gaining employment under those conditions, is just a given.

    So nothing special happened.

    But he really screwed up when he was for the very first time tested and that was c19.
    Now it gets even worth the second wave has hit and election is coming in a few weeks and he starts loosing the senior vote.
    The seniors are the ones most in danger and they know it and they that he has mismanaged c19.
    He does not get the Bonus " lets try something new " any more, now everybody knows, what president he is.
    Last time he pulled it of in the rust-belt, by the slimmest margin, just 87,000 votes, against a candidate who was arrogant and over the board disliked.

    It will be very hard to pull that one of again, because now he is the one disliked by a majority of the voters.

    Can it happen, but yes.
    I give this election, like the last one, a 50/50, with a slight edge for Biden, because he is not disliked as Clinton was and c19 is going full bore.
    People might say again, " lets try something else ", this one does not work that good.
    2016 and 2020 are not Obama elections. I had no doubt at all that Obama would win.
    But as in the last one, I am not sure, could be a landslide for Biden, or a very narrow win for Covid Boy, again.
    I trend more for a Biden win, because of the c19.
     
  20. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Absolut correct.

    But I would say that the folks who do these polls and got blind sided in 2016, had 4 years to learn from their mistakes. If they get blind sided again they go out of business.
    The 2018 polls were good, not a presidential race, but in most races they were spot on.

    But still they have to show that they actually learned the lesson from 2016.

    Going to be very interesting.
     
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  21. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    Are you saying I don't exist? This hurts, man :(

    LOL how deprived of common sense does one need to be to not understand that a "shy" Trump voter admitting to a pollster that he/she is one immediately stops being a "shy" Trump voter and becomes a Trump voter.

    How do you explain to a liberal that a shy voter does not tell his neighbors, his coworkers, certainly the pollsters that he will vote for Trump because he/she is "shy". Pollsters have absolutely no way of discovering shy voters. Jeez, how hard could this be for people with an ounce of logic and common sense. Duh

    PS you're right about one thing though, Trump's supporters are out in force... and they don't even include his shy vote. Yes, you need to be concerned...bigly ;)
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2020
  22. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    That story does not fly out side the fringe Repubs.

    FBI is investigating were Rudy got this from.
     
  23. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Today Covid Boys are out in numbers, they are in the open, can see it every Saturday, flags waving, motorcades.
    Proud Covid Boys and Girls, including 3%ters. They aint shy any more, their boy is president.
    No reason to be shy.
     
  24. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    What part of I exist, I am shy and I will vote for Trump is so difficult for you to comprehend.

    And there are millions like me, not willing to risk our jobs, or having our cars/houses vandalized by a violent mob of leftist brownshirts... But we will show up on November 3rd and you can take this to the bank. Your praying "please god I don't want them to exist" won't make us disappear or not vote :D
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2020
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  25. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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    No, conservatism is in danger of going the way Germany did in 1933 or Russia in 1922, Italy in 1919. And if we do America will go with them

    It would be a damned shame if we survived WWII and the Cold War only to lose it all over some really minor **** over immigration but there it is.
     

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