US economy grows 5.2% in third quarter; higher interest rates eroding momentum

govt spending and folks running up more credit debt

but, wave those Democrat pom poms

 

Student loans resuming. Dems tried to help, but republicans want people in debt.

 

Did we have a recession in 2001?

If so, show me 2001’s two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

 

BEA never states we are in a recession. NBER uses BEA statistics and are the only ones that determine when we are in a recession.

Second, we were in an economic recession in 2009 and did not get out of it until 2010. We still felt the effects of the recession from 2011 to early 2012. ARRA was a massive bill, with $300 billion-plus in tax incentives to get the economy rolling plus the fiscal incentives that it included. We also passed the Dobbs-Frank Act to make sure subprime mortgage interest rates do not affect business greed, which was the main culprit of the recession. Since 2000, we have been twinkling on a recession. The Bush Tax cuts, both of them, kicked the can down the bucket. The War in Afghanistan and Iraq also boosted the economy somewhat, which is where the "profit for oil" argument came from. I am not arguing for or against that argument, just stating the facts here. With Obama, the last three years, by every economic measure from the BEA, were better under Obama in the last three years than the first three years under Trump.

 

They state the official GDP numbers of which two consecutive negative quarters is considered a recession.

We were un one in 2008, a year after the Dems had taken back the Congress and we felt the results longer and deeper because of their failed policies and lame ducking Bush continuing when they took the White House with Obama's necessary huge spending whichntook the deficit from the paltry Republican $161B to $1,400B in just two years and kept it over $1,000B for the next three until the Reps began taking back the Congress.

Like with Biden the economy was already turning around but like Biden more handouts to "help" people stay out of work and an anti-business attitude to keep investors from risking their capital.

No we weren't we had a string recovery and economy.

They produced RECORD tax revenue increases and with their spending restraint the bdget was heading back to surplus before the Dems took baxk the Congress. Yiu've been fed a pile of horse manure.

Balone hardly a blip. And YES the last three uears the Reps stopped thw Dems when they took back the Congress.

 

Yes and the dot.com bust and the 9/11 attack and Bush and the Reps did mostly the correct policies that mitigated it's depth and length and got us into a strong recvery. What's your point?

 

The 2001 recession happened after Bush and republicans took control of the house.

 

Cite where Congress passed a law creating an official one. Traditional is 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. Of course now that it's Biden and a Dem the move the goal post comes in.

 

What’s my point?

2001’s Recession had NO 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth, thus, it was a NBER recession.

 

Cite where consecutive quarters of GDP growth is the official economic definition.

 

2001’s recession had NO 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth, thus, unquestionably, it was a NBER recession.

Also, if we were to define 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth as a “traditional recession”, then rationally, 2001’s recession was “untraditional”.

 

Yes, but for a recession to occur, it has to be more than just a negative GDP growth. That is not the only factor, and NBER uses all that information to make that determination. That is why 2020 was the last time because we not only had negative GDP growth literally, we had job losses and other things that did occur. What you quoted in 2022 was not negative GDP growth. It was a decline in GDP growth from one quarter to the next, and that IS NOT A RECESSION.

It began in 2007. Obama did not take office until 2009 and GWB was still president in 2008.. Again, the reasons why was because he had a residential and commerical real estate collapse due ot the increase in subprime mortgages issued by the banks and the ease of credit in the country at that time, a GOP mandate. Once the real estate market collapsed, the rest followed suit with online shopping beginning to take off at that point to. But it had nothing to do with who was in charge of Congress or not. It had to do with conusmer choices, and that is what you don't get, and never will.

At the end of 2020, inflation was up ticking and the economy was slowly turning around. However, Presidents and the executive branch do not control the economy. We do not have a command economy, which is the premise of your argument here. the reason for this was the near-zero interest rates, the qualitative easing from the FED that Trump wanted in 2019, and so forth. As we came back to work and tried to be as normal in our choices as possible, that is why inflation boomed and why it took a year for the FED to restrict qualitative easing and raise interest rates in 2022. And in that time, we also saw a major shift in purchasing from brick-and-mortar stores to online shopping. This caused some issues with job losses but made prices cheaper even though it may take a day or two to get what your purchased most of the time, even picking it up at the store, Amazon Hub, or whatever. So, we had a very pro business attitude that changed with the times. What we are not doing, especially those who are 55 and over is going out to eat. We don't do that as often as we used to, in part Covid is still out there, prices have increased, and some restaurants don't have the staff to meet customer demands.

Blues look at the BEA data again, especially the leading economic indicators in 2000. We did have a mini recession in 2001 when we had 9/11, but our economy surged mostly because of two unpaid wars. Not anything else. Take away the wars, and our economy would have continued slowly downward.

In a strong part because of inflation. However, the revenues did not match the expenses from SS to Medicare to the all the other expenses we have.

You must have been in a rush because I have no idea what the hell you are trying to argue here.

When it comes to economy, I don't blame political parties or even the president at that time. Our economy does not work that way and neither the legislative or executive branch controls the economy in that way. Sorry charlie, but you are spouting complete economic nonsense here.

 

You mean how private consumers are running up their credit card debt too?

 

A recession is more than just 2 consecutive GDP growths. But it was a "mini recession" given all the stats at that time. You can call it a period of adjustment or something similar, but NBER is the only place where it shows recessions on their business cycle map and no where else. they will explain their findings and it does take time when analyzing the data.

 

“Govt spending and folks running up more credit debt”

What else?

Reason my asking;

1. FRED’s Personal Consumption Expenditures;

a. End of Jun 23; $18.485 Trillion
b. End of Sep 23; $18.791 Trillion

Up $306 billion

1. FRED’S Consumer Loans; Credit Cards and other revolving plans

a. End of Jun 23; $992 Billion
b. End of Sep 23; $1,018 Billion

Up $26 billion

Summary; Q3 PCE, up $306 Billion, Credit Cards/Other revolving plans, up $26 billion

Next time, please make an effort to substantiate your claims.

Question; Where’s Q3 spending money mainly came from?

1. FRED’s Personal Saving;

a. End of Jun 23; $1,027 billion
b. End of Sep 23; $851 billion

Down $176 billion

2. After tax income

 

Agree, but the close-minded people have been saying that we are both wrong, and they’re right.

 

The standard until Biden was 2 quarters of negative growth which I showed to have occurred by then OFFICIAL BEA numbers. You can try to couch it all you want it was a techincal recession.

The 2008/2009 recession began a year AFTER the Dem took back the Congress stymying Bush and lame ducking him. Had the Reps been in control they would have used the policies they would have as in 2001 mitigated the length and depth and gotten us into a full recovery. The Dems, including senators Obama and Biden, failed with their policies and lack thereof to mitigate it and Obama's spending which exploded the deficit was a total bust and it was the worst recovery in modern history. Sorry you can't rewrite history.

Joe Biden took over and cut our domestic energy production pledging ti shut it down and then paaed even MORE unnecesssry spending sending inflation to 9% and expanding the programs paying people not to work and did nothing to spur the SUPPLY side and instead went back to the failed DEMAND side he and Obama tried in 2009. Why? To buy votes.

Are you asserting government policies have no effect on the economy and the monetary system?

The 2001 recession began within weeksmof Bush taking office YOU go look again. The wars were paid for and we STILL had a paltry $161B deficit which the Dems turned into a $1,400B in just two years.

Bidefation because keeps expanding to that spending.

You were trying to credit Obama for those last three years ignoring it was the Reps taking back the Congress.

So the government and it's policies have NO effect of the economy and the budget?

 

Lucky I don't need to buy any batteries from the US.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/cnh9dYmAPfY

 

They are simply trying to further their political agenda, whatever that is. But is also shows the American populace, the voting electorate, generally don't think very well when it comes to choosing anyone for any political office either. That is why we are in this mess to begin with, unfortunately.

 

They declined, but they were not negative, such as a minus sign here. There is a difference, a world of difference, economically speaking.

It began in the last quarter of 2007 and went to mid-2009, officially. Furthermore, we some economic leading indicators were lagging a bit, so we were still feeling the effects of the recession well into 2011. But we came out of it, some by the ARRA bills that were passed, which included some $300 billion plus in tax cuts, specific tax cuts for businesses and indivduals. We also passed the Banking Reform Act to help prevent this again, the Dobbs-Frank Act.

The 2001 mini recession was nullified by two wars that were unpaid for. We call this fiscal spending to get our way our of a recession/depression. We did the same in WW2 where we literally outspent everyone combined, was able to produce ships in a day or two, and was able to fight successfully two fronts: one in Europe and the other in the Pacific. Fiscal spending is just as as effective to get us out of a recession as monetary policy. That's the point, and why we had huge deficits in the Bush Administration era when both Legislative chambers were controlled by the GOP for 6 years. then the recession hit, mostly because of Residential and Commercial real estate dropped signficantly, the subprime rates were all coming due, and a whole bunch of other reasons economically speaking. It had nothing to do with who was in the WH, R or D. And that argument is about as specious and fallacious as one might get. It shows no understanding of economics, PERIOD!

I hate to pee in your Cheerios here, but we don't have a command economy where BIden or any other President can order private businesses to hire. We had inflation for three distinctive reasons: First, the near zero interest rates that began in 2019, the qualitative easements that began in 2019, and the populace starting to spend more, travel, more, and demand more while international supply chains were still being disrupted due to Covid in other countries, like China and other places. The FED should have acted by the summer of 2021. Instead, the FED said it was transitory when it came to inflation. By the time the FED reacted, an independent government agency that handles/manages our monetary policy, we were already in full swing with inflation. Now, inflation is more in check with less than 3%, but the damage is already done with higher prices.

Only the FED has an effect on monetary policy, not the Executive or Legislative Branches of government. Fiscal policy is a double-edged sword. It has some influence, but no direct effect, no cause/effect analysis, and no direct consequences. Fiscal policies can also not be as quick as intended either, and it takes time for fiscal policy to have any influence into the economy.

You are making this argument as if we had a command economy. We don't. We have a market based economy, a monopolistic competitive market economy. We have a few large businesses plus a whole bunch of smaller businesses that support the large businesses or are in specialty markets that dictate their economic sector in the hiring, prices, employment, etc while the rest follow. For instance, if American Airlines decides to increase prices across the board by 10% for instance, all the other major and minor airlines will do the same. that is how our economy works Blues.

It wasn't weeks. It began in the second quarter of 2001 and lasted to the third quarter of 2001. At that time, in March of 2001, the first of two broad based tax cuts was passed by the House and Senate, signed by the President, GWB, as a campaign promise when he ran. It also caused the deficit to increase significantly, But we got out of the recession because we were mad as hell after the 9/11 attack and began two wars, unpaid for, and our deficit exploded even further. We are now paying for those wars with the increased expenditures to the VA because we should not leave any Veteran behind, should we?

It was not the spending that caused inflation Blues. Again, it was near-zero interest rates that began in 2019 and ended in 2022 by the FED, along with qualitative easing that also began in 2019 and ended in 2022. We had excess money supply over excess money demanded. It was also we were beginning to travel more, spend more, demand more while international supply chains, the supply side, were disrupted still by Covid in countries like China, Latin America, and Europe. We have a global supply chain due in part because of the internet. Oh hell, even small businesses are starting to do business internationally via the Internet nowadays. And we had oil-producing companies that did not increase production fast enough, which is why gas prices went so high.

Furthermore, if you want to look at the history of inflation compared to fiscal spending, every President from Ronald Reagan on has significantly increased the spending, the deficit, while inflation either fell in their time as President or remained stable. Remember, in Ronald Reagan's term, we already had high inflation and high-interest rates. The FED raised interest rates and then in a few quarters afterwards, it began to fall. It continued to fall from 1983 to well into the mid-1990s, under two Republicans and one Democratic Administration. History proves your argument is false or misleading at the very least, but definitely not accurate as to the cause.

I don't credit any President for anything. I simply pointed out the incontrovertible fact that we had more people gain employment in the last three years of Obama than the first three years of Trump. That is proven fact by the BEA and other statistics. In other words, we had a robust economy with Obama and we had a robust economy with Trump, but neither one of them had anything to do with why we had a robust economy even though both take "credit" for it. We call that political hubris, not facts.

FED policy has a more direct impact, but the FED is independent of the executive branch and the legislative branch. They determine fiscal policy, set interest rates, etc. Fiscal policies are a double edge sword and they are not that quick to turn around the economy or have any effect on the economy as you are arguing. Influence is not the same as effect economically speaking. Fiscal policy pretty much sets the general direction of priorities and companies eventually respond. We see this with the green energy policies which is where a lot of the job growth is occurring, especially in red states ironically speaking. But government debt or deficits do not affect why we have inflation though.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics...-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/

It began December of 2007 a year after the Dems took control of the Congress lame ducking Bush PERIOD you can't get around that fact.

It wasn't a mini recession it was the dot.com bust then recession then 9/11 and it's length and depth were mitigated because Bush and the Republican party took the proper steps to help do so. The wars were paid for and the huge increase in tax revenues due in part to those policies let them bring the deficit back down from it's recession high of $400B to that paltry $161B heading to surplus again by 2007. Why do you keep ignoring that fact?

And a totally FALLACIOUS statement because if I actually said what it was you'd report it. The GOP produced the budget surpluses of the late 1990's and then handed the Dems that paltry $161B deficit in FY2007. It was DEMS who took it to $1,400B just two years later and kept it over $1,000B with their demand side Keynesian spending policies which were totally unnecessary just as when Biden turn us back to those policies when he took offidce.

And the Dem policies to mitigate that recession were total failures and made it WORSE, PERIOD. They BEST deficits were TWICE the worse deficits of the GOP and it was the worst and weakest economic recovery in modern history.

To argue that business and the economic is totally isolated and insulated from government policy show a total lack of understanding of economics and the economy. It is an absurd uninformed opinion. The reason we had inflation soar to 9% was because of the unnecessary "I'm coming to the rescue so just stay at home and don't go back to work" and the "I will end the domestic fossil fuel industry in this country" policies and the spending behind of the Biden administration. We were entering a HUGE recovery having gotten through COVID and then just like in 2008/9 the Dems did exactly the opposite of what needed to be done and we have seen the results with the HUGE boost to inflation and our productivity and LFPR rates still suffering while the deficits EXPLODE due to those policies and not a national emergency as in 2020 so don't even try to throw that "*" year on the table.

And that monetary policy was hampered by FISCAL policy and government spending and the inflation it was causing.

No I am not. I have given you reasons government policies EFFECT our economy while you are seemingly denying they do at all.

The 2001 recession started in March of 2001 within weeks of Bush taking office, he had nothing to do with it. It started with the dot.com bust and that hit on the capital markets. Of course the Clinton administration had it's hand in that with it's belief that tech companies and in particular Microsoft were getting to big and the government would have to step in and break them up. And then of course 9/11 hit just as we were coming out of it and the economy took that hit. But as I said Bush and the Reps did mostly the right things to mitigate the depth and length and got us into a full robust recovery and one of our better economies ever. We got out because of lower tax rates and fewer regulations and the government getting out of the way, the wars had nothing to do with nor were the cause of the Democrat deficits.

Yes it was the unnecessary and huge spending and deficit increases on top of everything else that sent inflation to the NINE percent.

Reagan requested LESS spending each year than Congress authorized and Congress refused to pass all the spending recessions he sent to them. We don't have a command budget, Congress holds budgetary power Presidents make suggestions. The inflation at the time was due to the failed policies of both Carter and Nixon and mostly Dem Congress during those times. And nothing about Reagan excuses Obama/Biden/Dems.

Yes those last three years with the Reps in charge of the Congress and stopping the Dem/Obama policies that produced the worst economic recovery in modern history. Those last three years were FIVE years after the recession ended. And YES by then we were reach full employment where everyone is already working and you can't create more new jobs because there aren't enough people to fill them. What we did see was an improvement in the LFPR as everyone went back to work. Those same work oriented policies in the late 1990's, early 2000's and late 2010's.

And President talk to FED chiefs and FED chief take note of the government FISCAL policy and the effects it will be having on the economy. The irony here of course being that were the economy in great shape and had we not had the inflation we did you would be trying to credit Biden with it.

 

Dow is at all time highs. I bet retirees with mutual funds are also waving those pom poms.

The Stock Market is a leading indicator of the future economic outlook.

 

Hey professor bluesguy;

If TWO consecutive quarters of negative growth equates to a technical recession, what type of recession ONLY ONE quarter of negative growth equates to?

Untraditional recession????
NBER recession????
Uncommon recession????
Non-technical recession????

Reason my asking; In 2001’s recession, there was only one quarter of negative quarter, thus, what we should call it?