Will the War in Gaza Ignite the Middle East?..Israel and Iran On a Collision Course

Thank you for your elaboration and clarification... for it is invaluable to us "infidels" who find the esoteric, labyrinthine recesses of Islam's factions to be very daunting, to say the least. Thank you for providing the video, for such a source would have always escaped my notice, and that of others.

 

I hope you and others to try to watch the movie. I only wish the accents (very annoying) and English dubbing could have been as good or nearly as good as the Persian original. Still, if you can overcome some of the prejudice the accents might engender, the movie itself is very good despite the dubbing.

 

Very informative. Thank you.
Will be watching to se how this war unfolds now ...as the dynamics are changing.

 

Sunni (ISIS) vs Shia (Iran)

 

Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis: Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance,’ Explained | WSJ


Interesting little explanation of the various groups Iran backs in the region. Towards they end, they also address the question of how likely it is for the conflict to expand (they don't seem to think it is likely).

 

Whether the war expands will ultimately depend on Israel and the US. There will be (I'm almost certain) a proportional, direct, attack by Hezbollah, possibly IMO targeting high profile Israeli figures comparable to those assassinated by Israel. While the timing of such an attack is left intentionally vague, my initial sense was it would come sooner rather than later. Now I am not sure: ISIS taking responsibility for the latest terrorist attack in Kerman has perhaps also brought into open differences of opinion in Iran on the issue. Basically, those in Iran who believe direct retaliation against Israel will spill into wider war, have been focusing on blaming ISIS. Those who want this terrorist act to rally public opinion against Israel, and who believe failure to react directly and forcefully merely delays the inevitable to a time less advantageous for Iran, are arguing the attack had Israeli involvement.

 

Why would that expand it? Israel struck targets after they were attacked. It seems to have been a measured and proportionate response on their part. Seems to me it depends on Hezbullah and whatever new crimes they choose to commit against Israel now.

 

There are unwritten rules about where each side can carry its operations without leading to all out war. Israel broke those rules when they assassinated Hamas' deputy in Beirut. The retaliation by Hezbollah will similarly be outside those rules.

On a separate point:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveb...fghanistan-branch-behind-iran-blasts-sources/
US intelligence confirms Islamic State’s Afghanistan branch behind Iran blasts — sources

This, however, does not negate Israeli involvement. Polemics aside, the evidence of Israeli involvement is strong. Nor would Israeli involvement with such groups to carry such terrorist attacks against Iran be unprecedented. In fact, the Israelis once did so trying to put the blame on the US!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jundallah_(Iran)
...

 

I seem to recall Hezbullah breaking the rules as well. I'm not keeping score, but it seems to me that they started it, same as Hamas started their fight with Israel in October.

 

Israel and its supporters started all these wars.

• They started the war for establishment of a Jewish state on land that was not predominately (or even substantially) Jewish when the Zionist project was kicked off mainly through support, initially, of non-Jewish British Christian evangelicals, colonialists and anti-Semites whose project gained steam when their ranks were then joined by the left after the rise of the Nazi, which then gave the Zionist project support among the secular European Jews as well. The project was colonialist from its inception as the only people who never got a say or vote on the issue were the people of Palestine whose lives were being uprooted by it. A significant, possibly a majority, of the people in Gaza are families of refugees who had already lost their homes in 1948.
• They also started the second phase of the war by empowering Likud and their christian evangelical and imperialist cohorts who wanted to purse a Greater Israel. Likud's rise to power followed the 1967 war which now saw Israel occupying additional not just land, but people. These groups gained their first serious footholds in American politics during Ronald Regan's presidency but it wasn't until the rise of the neocons during the Bush administration that they had America fully on board for this 2nd phase. During Trump's rise, they were able to go fully on the offensive.
• In terms of what immediately preceded Oct 7 2023, just because all the crimes being committed against both those resisting (or whose mere existence or presence) was an obstacle to Greater Israel, as well as those in the axis of resistance who were seeking to undo the victory of the Zionist forces from the first phase of this war, doesn't mean those crimes were not being committed.
• Incidentally, if and then when, the 2nd phase of the war for Greater Israel is won by these age-old colonialist forces, the next phase of this project for a New American Century, would be to go after the conquest of Iran, not necessarily militarily but fundamentally. Iran has been seeking to keep the flag of all those who have resisted western colonial and forcible expansion --- whether the flag of the Sassanids who fought Rome for 750 years; whether the different flags of the Persianate Islamic world that had the soul of a region (from the Indian subcontinent to the Balkans) for centuries (almost a thousand years) before western colonialism and westernization; whether those resisting in its modern incarnations, including Zionists -- still flying. But the truth is that it is not yet ready to carry that heavy mantle.

 

In 1948 the Jews in Palestine accepted the UN partition. The Arabs did not; thus began the war.
No one aims at any conquest of Iran, military or otherwise.

 

I don't believe that Israel instigated the 1967 war, or the 1973 war. In those situations where Israel initiated attacks it was against Arab forces that had already been gathered together threateningly on Israel's borders in obvious formations whose only purpose could be to threaten war, or to engage in hostilities.

But, going back to the period after World War II, is it not true that the various Arab chieftains, leaders, and/or those with financial 'powers-of-attorney' (so to speak) actually sold all of the land that became the initial "State of Israel" which was approved by the UN in 1948? Moreover, the history I've always heard was that those 'Arabs-in-charge' of that land sale took the money knowing that the intention was to settle Jews into what was then (at the end of World War II) "Palestine".

The thing that all of us in "the West" have heard all our lives is that the Arabs (Palestinians) are enraged because they believe their land was "stolen" from them from the very beginning -- and that in one way or another, and at one time or another, they've been trying to get it back ever since! Can you comment on whether you believe this 'land sale' was an actual transaction involving payment to what I've referred to loosely as 'Arabs-in-charge'?

It seems like the first step in any actual cessation of this decades-long dispute would be resolution regarding whether there was a land sale, by whom, for how much money, and who exactly received the money.... Surely there's a "paper-trail"...(?)

 

I believe even the Israelis have admitted their propaganda about their surprise attack being "a preemptive action" was propaganda. In any case, while a real case of preemptive attack might be justified as "self-defense", it doesn't change who started the war. Nor justify taking land and keeping it.

The onus of proof of someone claiming a power of attorney is on that person making such claims. No one should even expect otherwise or have people dispossessed of their homes have to also prove a negative to boot!

Neither Islamic law (which is oriented towards protecting private property) nor the common law in the 20th century would have vested ownership of someone's property to "tribal chiefs", much less swindlers.

In any case, the Zionists took a lot of land forcibly even without such pretexts. And the only people who had no say or vote in the UN partition plan were the people of Palestine. The regional states who did have a say, all voted no.

 

The key word here is "instigated." There really is no doubt that the Arabs instigated the 1967 war. There is also no doubt that the Israelis struck first, in a devastating air and ground assault that resulted in the famous "Six Day War." The Israelis refused to be passive victims. Good for them.

 

I don't think you would appreciate a doctrine of "instigation" to justify war if the shoe was on the other foot, so to speak, nor be as complementary of a refusal to be "passive victims" if it wasn't the Israelis you were referring to. Ultimately, you are simply confident the balance of power favors your side. More fundamentally, you believe might makes right and have made "Caesar your God". But even being agnostic, you must still realize the truth in any rendition of this verse from the Persian mathematician and astronomer, made popular in English literature through Fitzgerald's free translation of the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam:

The palace where Jamshid held his cup
The doe and the fox now rest and sup
Bahram who hunted game non-stop
Was hunted by death when his time was up.

Meaning:
The palace where Arthur sought the Grail
Is the resting home of the weak and frail
And the knight who challenged death on its trail
On the ocean of death forward must sail
Chasing the temporal is to no avail
As soon as you go through death’s dark veil.

Fitzgerald:
They say the Lion and the Lizard keep
The Courts where Jamshyd gloried and drank deep:
And Bahram, that great Hunter–the Wild Ass
Stamps o’er his Head, and he lies fast asleep
– Omar Khayyam

 

Of course, there's a paper trail. The Peel Commission report, for instance.
https://content.ecf.org.il/files/M00300 - PeelCommissionFullReport.pdf

More about land purchases by Jews here:
https://lessons.myjli.com/survival/index.php/2017/03/26/land-ownership-in-palestine-1880-1948/

Here's a snippet:

 

On the contrary, I am 100% and always in favor of seizing the initiative when facing a threat.

 

The videos Hezbollah releases of its operations on almost a daily basis are seldom shown to western audiences -- and that is a shame. Those videos are very revealing because:

1. they leave no doubt Israel does not accurately report damage and casualties it suffers;
2. provide clear evidence of Hezbollah's aerial reconnaisance reach into Israel;
3. show the difference between precision strikes that Hezbollah carries out in contrast to how Israel operates.

Israel at first did not acknowledge its Mount Meron air control base had been hit by Hezbollah.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-a...fic-control-base-damaged-in-hezbollah-attack/
IDF admits Mount Meron air traffic control base damaged in Hezbollah attack
Terror group’s video shows radar domes being hit by missiles Saturday; spokesman says unit still functioning on backup systems

In the meantime, while I try to steer away from citing the Telegraph, this report should put things in perspective.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/07/israel-us-intelligence-hezbollah-gaza-conflict/
Confidential US report finds Israel unlikely to win against Hezbollah on second front

 

This doesn't happen without excellent intelligence.

• 
  Israeli strike kills Hezbollah commander in latest escalation of Gaza conflict

 

There are different kinds of intelligence. The one that revolves around specific tasks that rely on infiltration of enemy ranks is among those the Israelis are good at, using bribery, extortion, various inducements, and threats to recruit agents often under false color. The Israelis also have great technological assets. Finally, the Israeli also excel at propaganda -- including exactly the "big lie" variety they picked up from the Nazis. But when it comes to analytical intelligence to enable them to read their environment in the region and properly understand and analyze it, they suck. That is the price they pay for rearing a generation and more in a warped view of their enemies from their own propaganda.

 

"Warped view" is in the eye of the beholder. IMHO the Israelis understand their environment quite accurately.

 

These Sons of Satan lost their intelligence that very same day.

 

1. The flames of war have always been there in the ME region. So we can't speak about 'igniting' the conflict.

1. The flame of war has always been there in ME region. So we can't really say that at this moment smth is 'igniting'. Some countries are obviously entering this flame, which will obviously intensify it.
Some decades ago I have already told here that the decline of the US will provoke a lot of bloody conflicts around the globe. This is exactly what is happening at the moment.

2. The US is coming to war in ME with the only ally, which is the best possible situation for Iran. If someone asked me a decade ago about the most favourable conditions for Iran for the future war in the region I would hardly come up with anything better. The neutrality of other players in the region is mostly hostile to Israel and for the US. With all the history behind the ME region it is the most favourable for Iran. Besides it leaves some ways to reduce the number of losses and victims.

3. The strategy of Iran is based on economy. I can call it a strategy. As for the US they only can hope that several strikes will lead to a tactical victory, which in its turn will make the opponents to give up and surrender... This approach has no strategy behind.

 

Among those killed in the strike on Erbil was an "acquaintance" of the Kurdish businessman by the name Kamal Mickhael -- according to the IRGC a Mossad agent masquerading as a business man.

I googled his name to see what kind of information I could find about him...he seemed to have been involved in oil and gas and various other projects in the UAE, Iraq, etc. Wearing a suit and tie in many pictures, Mikhael doesn't seem someone who would qualify as a "martyr" for the "Islamist" groups like ones who noted his passing below:

p.s
Iran's version why these folks were targeted:
https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/493816/Who-was-Pishro-Dizaei

Separately, Iran also launched attacks against a terrorist base in Pakistan.

 

As long as they hit the right targets, and excepting the innocent lives lost, Iran should send Pakistan a "thank you" note.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/18/middleeast/pakistan-targets-locations-iran-intl-hnk/index.html
Pakistan carries out military strikes on separatist targets in Iran following deadly attack on its own soil by Tehran