Avdiivka, Longtime Stronghold for Ukraine, Falls to Russians

...you're a card...

Hey..you're the anal the guy..you know the bloke that likes accuracy and all that malarchy.....So did you read the article you posted...I mean did you read and understand it?

 

Accuracy? You mean which country is running low on troops? I'm not a stickler for the exact numbers, but you should be in the correct ballpark, and your response implies that your "ballpark" was the exact opposite of reality.

 

ah...okay so you're not a stickler for numbers...okay noted....you didn't answer the question though so...well....not that much of a "stickler" for anything then really?

Okay so lets start again non-sticklering noted....So did you read the article you posted...I mean did you read and understand it?

 

I am pretty sure I understand it, but given your lack of knowledge on of the most basic issues of the war, I'm not sure I'll be much interested in whatever interpretation of the article you have. No offense but you've only demonstrated an attitude, not knowledge.

 

indeed...I am humbled by your better understanding of all things....indeed everything...you're a genius....slap on the back and glad that we got that cleared up....
so...you quoted the passage regarding the ammunition status...artillery shells per month, that is quite significant isn't it? Would you agree?

 

Wow....RT link....no surprise Bill?....any more fakes?


But here's a few good ones.....

Il76 crashes in Mafiosi...no survivors....reports ranging from 30-150 dead.

SU27 shot down in Belgorod... more friendly fire.

Freedom of RuZzia Legion and RVC incursions into Belgorod and Kursk....seize territory.

Soon to be Belgorod Peoples Republic?

 

As DELUSIONAL Puppets here abouts, are continually celebrating Ukraine's inevitable
and always imminent Victory. And the FACTS on the ground show the fast approaching
......... prostration and ruin of the mauled and largely Destroyed body of The Ukraine.
..
The real reasons for the stubborn continuance of this War becomes more & more evident.
...................................................................................................................... That being $PROFIT$

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& so - The Vultures Circle & The Parasites Swarm
"We will sell YOU all the bombs that WE can provide, but in the end, WE
will OWN YOU and whatever remnants of YOUR country that are left."


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BlackRock Plots to Buy what's left of Ukraine (for pennies to the Dollar )
BlackRock Will Be Creating A Roadmap For the Reconstruction
...........................................................................................................of the Ukraine.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/blackrock-plots-buy-ukraine/5803685


Ukraine Reconstruction Bank to be Guided by BlackRock,
And JPMorgan --- Ready For Action This Year
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-reconstruction-bank-guided-blackrock-161132624.html
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But the real TRAGEDY in all this, is the FACT that all of this was foreseen and could easily
have been avoided. It was clearly foreseen as the inevitable result of arrogantly ignoring
Russia's legitimate security concerns, and proceeding to sponsor and arm Neo Nazi
Fanatics to take over Ukraine's Government.

And of using the time that the Minsk Accords provided to arm and train a Ukrainian
Army to NATO standards and to attempt to irreparably damage Russia, rather than fulfill
their signed and legally binding provisions. ( see chancellor Merkel and Belgian PM's admissions in this regard )
................................................................ ( and RAND Corp Paper - "How to USE Ukraine to Overextend and Ruin Russia" )



ALL of that has failed - and with the humiliating dismissal of the Architect of
this debacle, "Victoria Nuland" we seen the beginning of the final Unravelling
........................................................................................................................................ Ukraine will NOT recover

And for this Catastrophe I blame those HATE inspired Russio Phobes
...................... who have Cheered on and Championed this conflict ...... ..................................................................................................
..............................................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................................. BLOOD ON YOU

.

 

Bombs are not FREE

What does Zelenskyy expect to get for free?

The deal between the US and Zelenskyy was 'you supply the troops, we
supply the bombs, artillery shells, bullets, satellite imaging, command &
control'.

What does the US get: revenue for the 'defense' industry, a bigger national
debt for the public, and hopefully Russia broken up and divided among
the petroleum companies.

What does Ukraine get: lots and lots dead and maimed.

What does Zelenskyy get: a private jet, some private residences in various
countries, lots of money and fame.

If I was in Ukraine or the US public I wouldn't be happy.

 

Not particularity surprising. I've already stated 'conventional 'dumb' artillery is one area where Russia has an advantage (with the other one primarily being manpower). So maxing out artillery shell production is about the only thing Russia can do to try a expedite a 'victory' out of this stupid war. They're certainly not going to be able to ramp up production of PGMs, aircraft or other high tech equipment quickly. In contrast for instance Ukraine is attempting to ramp up domestic drone production because that's one area where it has an advantage thanks to ready access to western electronic components.

That said your forgetting barrels Mike, barrels! Barrels, gun carriages, directors and all the other material components required to create an effective field artillery piece/unit. Towed artillery? They are almost certainly trying to ramp up production? How successfully? Who knows? New mechanized artillery pieces on the other hand? Forget it. They have the same choke points/production limitations with those that they have with tanks and other armored fighting vehicles.

Given the loss rates when mechanized units are thrown into assaults? By the end of the this war (whoever 'wins') the Russian army is going to be all grunts and towed artillery.

 

I don't think Mike has forgotten any of those things.

 

I'm not sure why you think Russia is unable to produce mechanized artillery let alone barrels and towed pieces. Producing a barrel is not more difficult than producing actual artillery rounds. Did they lose that capacity since the fall of the Soviet Union?

 

Even if they did lose capacity since the fall of the Soviet Union, they have enough already built and stocked to last several years.....no matter what the peanut gallery thinks. If they never built a new tank or repaired a damaged tank, they have enough to last 6-7 years at the currently run rate. ukie land will run out of men long before Russia runs out of tanks.

 

I doubt if they've forgotten because there are just a few steps involved, but
if they have then they can look it up on the Internet.

 

I was referring to ammunition versus the 'guns to fire them' problem discussed previously. Prior to the war starting Russia had the capacity to produce 'about' 200 or so new tanks a year because given the huge number of existing vehicles there was little demand for more production than was needed to meet any international orders. The result was a two decade decline in Russian production capacity as lines were shut down and workers laid off. Queue the war? Suddenly Russia has far more demand for new combat vehicles than it can possibly meet. And mechanized artillery production as a subset of of armored fighting vehicle manufacturing faces exactly the same bottlenecks! The problem is not that Russia can't produce mechanized artillery. Its that it can't produce enough new platforms to replace all its losses. Which leaves it (as per tanks) pulling old mechanized guns out of it's reserve stockpile. Thereby facing the same 2026 deadline I mentioned previously.

Adding to the problem is that increased artillery shell production is of little medium term benefit if you are also not able to increase your production of artillery pieces (particularity barrels) in tandem with it. This is because (stating the bleeding obvious) artillery shells do not fire themselves! And artillery barrels be they towed or otherwise have a finite lifetime, a maximum number of rounds they can fire accurately and safely. After that point? they have to be taken out of the line and transported back a safe rear area for mid life servicing and barrel replacement etc. And since Russia has been steadily losing artillery pieces of all types in combat (to date somewhere between 700 and one thousand Russian mechanized artillery vehicles have been destroyed, captured or badly damaged)? They have a 'gun' problem.

On the plus side for Russia? Yes, towed artillery is mechanically simpler to produce so production of such pieces should be easier to ramp up. (How much? who knows? ) Trained crews to man them are another matter however. On average 8 to 12 weeks of training gives you a newly minted (green) gunner but like any other common military specialty it takes months/years longer to become expert. And Russia is losing a lot of gunners. But lets be clear. You do not know what your tanking about if you think producing a new barrel is as 'easy' as producing a new artillery shell. Rates for production are quite high but .... those barrels have to be mated to a chassis or carriage by skilled tradesmen and those chassis or carriages either have to be produced from new or else brought back into usable condition by skilled tradesmen. Russia will definitely be ramping up production of new towed artillery but don't kid yourself that this will be as easy and quick as you seem to think.

 

Given the difficulties Ukraine currently has in conscripting troops that seems likely.

 

Heh, I see what you did there!

As for your other comment that I highlighted, I've no idea about this "skilled tradesman" idea. I'm no Arty guy but I know that all manner of artillery pieces have a maintenance schedule that would pull the barrel after so many firings and replace it, by artillery troops in the field, not "skilled tradesmen." At least with the US Army those barrels would go back to a higher level maintenance to have the barrels either reconditioned or scrapped. That's where your "skilled tradesmen" might have a role.

Actually we have an Arty guy on the forum, so I'll ask @AARguy to weigh in

But as for your other comments, you simply seem to be speculating that Russia may be facing these shortages, which I've not read any evidence of yet. I'm not saying there isn't some shortage of either barrels, production of other artillery and so on, but this seems more than a hope rather based on any actual solid evidence.

Don't get me wrong, it's fun speculation, but so far Russia seems to be able to match the Ukrainians and no signs that it's not able to maintain it's current posture.

 

Served as a gunner for a while. Basic maintenance was done at the depot/in the field (constantly). Replacing the barrel /recoil system or other major structural issue meant 'ticketing' the gun for transfer to a service depot. Good idea to get an experts advice BTW. Also the comment relates more to the effort required to produce new guns rather than 'end of barrel life or other major repairs. The Russians will be able to upscale towed artillery production (all components) much more easily than armored vehicle production but that still requires skilled workers and working production lines to do it. And I'm still looking for figures on Russian artillery platform production rates. I'll let you know when I find some.

I wasn't speculating about tank production (much) there's been a lot of long-time Russian defense industry 'watchers' who have commented on the limits of the State defense industry following post soviet declines in annual production and the limitations of the Russian electronics industry. The aprox 200 tank p.a peace time production figure is one estimate I've seen. It's based on published figures like how many workers the manufacturers have let go over the years, reported annual production figures and the number of production lines that have apparently been closed. The best war time rate I've seen doubles that figure (i.e. 400 or so) simply because the lines that were operating prior to the start of the war are now working full pace. Over time the Russians probably improve on those figures even more. Over time. And we're talking a couple of years not months.

Also just to note but off the top of my head the average annual production figure for new Abrams wasn't much better than the figure I quoted for Russia either (i.e. 200 plus hulls a year p.a.) so in an emergency I doubt the US could do much better, at least initially than Russia has. At least in the first 6 months to a year i.e. rates production could probably easily be doubled. After that? I would expect to see the US churning out many more new hulls than Russia if it had to.

Both number for Russia are just estimates of course but given the Russians have lost well over 2500 or so of their best tanks pre-war tanks you can see the problem. And that's before factoring in that any new tanks which are produced now will not be getting all that lovely western tech that would was squeezed into all those wrecked/captured tanks in Ukraine.

 

This delusion cracks me up. It must be the Cold War brainwashing that has never been introduced to reality. Any time I see 'precision' 'western tech' and 'production' I just laugh.

Even if Russia couldn't produce their own chips, and they can, is China 'western tech'? 'Cause that's where most all the tech is made. Like this iPhone laying on my desk. China.

Russia doesn't have production problems because they don't have onerous regulations, bureaucrats and half a dozen unions in the rust belt sitting on their asses in the way of production.

Russia has precision hypersonic (nuclear capable) missiles....that the US can't make....must be those washing machine chips from South Korea, eh?

Give me a ****ing break.

There was a German guy with a funny mustache that thought the Russians couldn't produce anything either. After the Russians picked up and moved all of their factories to the Urals (google maps fyi), they handily outproduced the German war machine after a couple of years.

Abrams don't hold up to dumb Russian Kornets or artillery. They burn just like all the rest.

 

The tube (barrel) life of a 155mm Howitzer varies, but just as an example, let's look at the towed M777 version. It can fire 2.650 rounds before requiring a new tube. Measurements are taken routinely to monitor wear. I'm not sure how Russian maintenance is organized, but in the American Army, there are four levels of maintenance: User (crew), Direct Support, General Support, and Depot. (The names are changing a bit to change it into a TWO LEVEL system, but it's really just combining the four levels in different ways... just a labeling exercise.) Typically, a barrel can be changed at the unit level using the M578 (light) or M88 (heavy) recovery vehicle. A "contact team" from a Direct Support maintenance battalion will usually provide a "contact team" to help. This is done in the field.

Traditionally, Army maintenance is done by the Army without much depot (manufacturer) assistance. The Army can change barrels, transmissions, engines and most things by itself. With the dawn of higher tech equipment we have seen contractor personnel tag along with the forces in addition to having various depots. But you'd be amazed how proficient Soldiers can get in technical skills. At least American ones. When a tank or artillery contract is awarded, spares of all types are part of the contract. Proper planning assures combat readiness.

That is until some ***** decides to send all the spares to a hell hole like Ukraine.

 

Ever since the war started it's been devilishly hard to get a legitimate order of battle for either Ukraine or Russia, so not having access to your "watchers" the only thing I can go by is what seems to be happening on the battlefield, and even that sort of information is iffy. But Ukraine isn't making any massive breakthroughs through Russian lines so whatever shortages of thanks you speculate the Russians have haven't made a difference.

Now maybe they will at some point, but right now Russia is still there and doesn't seem to be going anywhere.

 

Thanks for the input! It didn't sound to me like switching barrels was some highly technical, esoteric skill.

 

At the macro scale the sources I quote tend to use published pre-war production figures and other sources to get what they believe are reasonable estimates on Russia armaments. Same as they generally do for all other armed forces when the topic comes up and I didn't claim Ukraine was (making great advances - now). But the loss of vehicles is important because Russia won't be able to make any rapid breakthroughs without committing it's armor to combat in significant quantities. Avdiika took what? The best part of a year to capture using more than more or less continuous dismounted infant attacks supported by heavy artillery bombardments and air fires. And even then the amount of territory captured was tiny. Compare that to the large swathes of territory recaptured by Ukraine last year when it was able to exploit mechanized breakthroughs. If your convinced Russia is going to win they need to be able to replicate those earlier successes, otherwise they'll be stuck in the current 'grind' for years.

The 'skilled' work force is in the factory where the forging and assembly of the gun is done . Even in my day guns could be taken to a rear area field depots and repaired (albeit the mechanics/armorers also had special training and knew their stuff). The point is you need the barrels and other parts to switch and the gun is out of the line while your doing it. As I said the problem remains that increasing ammunition production without increasing tube and carriage production and mechanized carriers (If you can) is only a short term solution. You need both. Like I said towed artillery is relatively easy to produce and Russia will have scaled up production. As yet however I haven't been able to find out by how much.

 

Russia doesn't have to make great gains. It's already sitting in Ukraine and the Ukrainians can't dislodge them. The status quo is a win for the Russians.

 

Aside from ardent Russian nationalist you're the only person I know who thinks so. And that's because your judgement is purely binary i.e. capture ground = 'victory', lose ground = 'defeat' and nothing else matters. No historian, economist or military professional I've talked to thinks that way. And I've talked to a few. In fact I recently mentioned your 'argument' to a retired military officer. He didn't (quite) face palm but he may as well have. Lets just say he strongly disagreed with your .... assessment (largely for reasons I've given previously). But in summery at the geopolitical level and from the viewpoint of the aggressor victory or defeat in any war is largely determined by your initial intentions/objectives when commencing hostilities.

He then said something about swamps and alligators. He was of the opinion that Russia will be up to its ass alligators for some time no matter how this war ends.

 

You and your retired military "professional" are free to think that defeat is victory. Some people can really talk themselves and rationalize anything.