Running Newsticker for the War in Ukraine

While the Russians posture about extraterritorial jurisdiction claims, the Euros are meeting to coordinate action.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• The All-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian Battalion conducted a limited cross-border incursion into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts on the morning of March 12.
• The New York Times (NYT) reported that Russian and Ukrainian forces have differential advantages and disadvantages in their electronic warfare (EW) capabilities.
• US Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s (ODNI) 2024 Annual Threat Assessment reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin “probably believes” that Russian forces have blunted Ukrainian efforts to retake significant territory and that US and Western support to Ukraine is “finite.”
• US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced an emergency military aid package valued at $300 million for Ukraine on March 12.
• Lithuanian and French authorities are expected to meet in Paris in the coming days to discuss accelerating support for Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues to assert its right, contrary to international law, to enforce Russian federal law on officials of NATO members and former Soviet states for actions taken within the territory of their own countries where Russian courts have no jurisdiction, effectively denying the sovereignty of those states.
• The Kremlin recently implemented a series of personnel changes in the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), Rosgvardia, and the Russian military command.
• Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia would leave the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) if the CSTO fails to meet certain Armenian expectations, as Armenia continues to distance itself from Russian security relations.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on March 12.
• The Kremlin is reportedly considering raising taxes, likely as part of efforts to increase federal budget revenues to fund its war in Ukraine.
• Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko continues to pursue industrial projects in occupied Ukraine. . . .

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda stated on March 12 that he will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris to discuss ways to accelerate support for Ukraine, to strengthen the security of NATO’s eastern flank, and to increase European defense production.[25] Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis stated on March 11 that “now is the time to debate” sending Western military personnel to Ukraine and the “red lines that [the West] has imposed on [itself]” in response to recent French discussions about sending Western military personnel to Ukraine.[26] French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné stated on March 9 during a meeting with Baltic and Ukrainian officials that Ukraine could use foreign troops for operations such as demining and that Russia should not be able to tell the West how to aid Ukraine by setting arbitrary “red lines.”[27] . . . .

 

From Russia With Love

“The Siberian Battalion, a newly formed militia of Russian fighters serving with the Ukrainian Armed Forces, joined fellow defectors this week to launch multiple incursions into Russia.

Three Ukraine-aligned military units—the Freedom of Russia Legion, the Siberian Battalion and the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK)—on Tuesday said they had crossed into Russian territory, and that an operation is ongoing, while the Russian Defense Ministry claimed it had stopped an attempt to "make a breakthrough into the Russian border territory in the Belgorod and Kursk oblasts." By Isabel van Brugen.

Newsweek

What Is Ukraine's 'Siberian Battalion'? Russian Rebels Joined by New GroupBattalion members have said they wanted to fight as they felt mistreated as ethnic minorities in Russia and because they opposed the invasion of Ukraine.
22 minutes ago
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-siberian-russian-battalion-belgorod-raid-1878726

 

Ukrainian supply shortfalls are creating offensive opportunities for the Russians.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 13, 2024

click here to read the full assessment
Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian shortages of ammunition and other war materiel resulting from delays in the provision of US military assistance may be making the current Ukrainian front line more fragile than the relatively slow Russian advances in various sectors would indicate.
• The rate of Russian advance west of Avdiivka has recently slowed, although Russian forces likely retain the capability to intensify offensive operations in the area at a moment of their choosing.
• Ukrainian actors conducted large-scale drone strikes against energy infrastructure and military assets within Russia on the night of March 12 to 13.
• The governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, claimed on March 13 that her recent meetings with Russian officials in Russia led to deepening economic ties between Gagauzia and Russia, which the Kremlin likely hopes to exploit as part of its wider efforts to destabilize Moldova and prevent Moldova from joining the EU.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled another limited cross-border incursion by the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian Battalion in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts on the night of March 12 and the morning of March 13.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline on March 13.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to censor protests of wives and mothers of mobilized soldiers ahead of the Russian presidential election. . . .

 

This is fantastic.

 

Found more in one article from The Independent. Link brings up both headlines and some detail.

“One of the pro-Kyiv volunteer groups, the Freedom of Russia Legion, warned Russians living in some border cities of imminent shelling attacks.
It comes as Moscow has been accused of breaking laws in a separatist region of Moldova ahead of this week’s presidential election.
A senior official in ex-Soviet Moldova said Russia was illegally printing ballot papers in the breakaway region of Transdniestria.”

The Independent
Russian ballots found in Moldova region as Kyiv strikes oil depots - Ukraine warThe Russian defence ministry said Ukrainian “terrorist formations” backed by tanks and armoured combat vehicles tried to invade in three separate directions in...
3 hours ago

THE INDEPENDENT,NewsWorldEurope
Ukraine-Russia war live: Anti-Putin armed groups loyal to Kyiv launch fresh cross border attacks, The ant-Kremlin groups claim to have captured the village of Tyotkino in Russia’s western Kursk region. By Namita Singh, Maryam Zakir-Hussain, 3/14/24. 15 minutes ago
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...r-putin-border-attacks-election-b2512593.html

 

Russia remains committed to maximalist war aims even while rebel anti-Putin forces attack in Russia.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev posted a detailed call for the total elimination of the Ukrainian state and its absorption into the Russian Federation under what he euphemistically called a “peace formula.” Medvedev’s demands are not novel but rather represent the Kremlin’s actual intentions for Ukraine—intentions that leave no room for negotiations for purposes other than setting the precise terms of Ukraine’s complete capitulation.
• Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 14 that unspecified Ukrainian units that have been deployed to frontline for a long time have started rotations.
• Russian forces may be currently committing tactical and operational reserves to fighting in eastern Ukraine in an effort to maintain and potentially intensify the tempo of ongoing Russian offensive operations.
• The Russian ability to make significant gains is still dependent on the level of Western support for Ukraine, however, and continued delays in Western security assistance will increase the risk of operationally significant Russian gains in the long run.
• Reported Russian transfers of tactical reserves to new areas of the frontline demonstrate Russia’s likely ability to dynamically balance and reweight their offensive efforts.
• British outlet The Times reported on March 14 that the British government believes that Russia deliberately jammed the satellite signal on a plane carrying British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps back to the UK from Poland.
• Continued limited raids from Ukrainian territory into Russian border regions will likely force the Kremlin to choose between paying a reputational or resource cost in responding to the incursions.
• The Kremlin must choose a balance between acceptable reputational and resource costs, but the Kremlin may not suffer as high a reputational cost in 2024 as it did in 2023 due to ongoing censorship efforts.
• Russian forces advanced west of Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements across the theater on March 14.
• Russian regional governments have reportedly increased economic incentives for Russian volunteers to sign contracts for military service. . . .

 

link to

 

happy election day Vlad.....

An over optimistic headline from Sky News this morning....




Could Putin lose.........

 

The stakes are increasing. IMHO Ukraine and Russia are approaching endgame, one way or another.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 15, 2024

Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces will likely continue ongoing offensive efforts to destabilize Ukrainian defensive lines in Spring 2024 while also preparing for a forecasted new offensive effort in Summer 2024. The provision of Western security assistance will likely play a critical role in Ukraine’s ability to hold territory now and to repel a new Russian offensive effort in the coming months.
• Well-provisioned Ukrainian forces have shown that they can prevent Russian forces from making even marginal gains during large-scale Russian offensive efforts, and there is no reason to doubt that Ukraine could further stabilize the frontline and prepare for repelling the reported Russian offensive effort this summer if materiel shortages abated.
• The threat of significant Russian gains in the coming months does not mean that there is no threat of Russian forces making such gains through offensive operations this spring.
• Pressing shortages in air defense systems and missiles will likely dramatically reduce Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian strikes both in rear and frontline areas in the coming weeks if not addressed rapidly.
• Russian forces have shown the capacity to adapt to fighting in Ukraine and will likely aim to scale lessons learned from the war in Ukraine to ongoing efforts to prepare the Russian military for a potential long-term confrontation with NATO.
• Senior European officials stressed that a Russian victory in Ukraine would result in Russia posing a strategic threat to NATO security.
• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev questioned the sovereignty of Latvia, a NATO member state, and threatened Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs following Medvedev’s March 14 call for the total elimination of Ukraine and Ukraine's absorption into Russia under Medvedev's “peace formula.”
• French President Emmanuel Macron stated on March 15 that he is not ruling out sending Western troops to Ukraine but that the current situation does not require it.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed continued limited raids from Ukrainian territory into Russia’s border region on March 15.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against a Russian oil refinery in Kaluga Oblast, and recent Ukrainian strikes against oil refineries reportedly caused a spike in Russian domestic oil prices.
• Several Russians made limited attempts to disrupt the first day of voting in the Russian presidential election on March 15.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupyansk and Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian Treatment of Prisoners of War Coordinating Headquarters Representative Petro Yatsenko stated that Russia has intensified its efforts to recruit military personnel from abroad.
• Ukrainian sources and Russian opposition media reported that occupation officials continue coercive efforts to artificially inflate voter turnout and perceptions of support for Russian President Vladimir Putin in occupied Ukraine. . . .

 

The Russians seem to have their hands full at home. I wonder when the wheels will come off.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 16, 2024

Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• The Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU) reportedly conducted a series of successful drone strikes against three Russian oil refineries in Samara Oblast on March 16.
• All-Russian pro-Ukrainian volunteers continue limited cross-border raids into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts.
• Russian authorities appointed Boris Kovalchuk, the son of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reported “personal banker” Yuri Kovalchuk, to a position within the Russian Presidential Administration.
• Russian authorities threatened Russian election disruptors and some Russian citizens’ continued attempts to disrupt voting in the Russian presidential election on March 16.
• Group of Seven (G7) countries issued a joint statement on March 15 warning Iran against transferring ballistic missiles or related technology to Russia.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
• A Russian insider source claimed on March 16 that Rosgvardia Director Viktor Zolotov revoked a reported agreement allowing former Wagner Group units to operate independently within Rosgvardia. . . . .

Russian opposition outlet Mobilization News reported on March 15 that Russian officials are no longer providing combat veteran certificates for veterans of Russian “Storm Z” convict units in the Southern Military District.[56] Mobilization News reported that Russian officials refused to issue combat veteran certificates to “Storm Z” veterans in Krasnodar Krai, Kabardino-Balkaria Republic, and Astrakhan and Volgograd oblasts. This change, if confirmed, is likely a cost-saving measure to prevent ballooning costs related to providing Russian veterans service benefits. . . .

 

Moscow's reaction proves that gasoline and electricity still matter -- even in Russia.

"March 17 (Reuters) - Ukraine launched 35 drones at targets across Russia that sparked a brief fire at an oil refinery, took aim at Moscow and disrupted electricity supplies in border areas, Russia said on Sunday, the last day of its presidential election.
Moscow has accused Kyiv of election sabotage with days of strikes on Russian infrastructure, one of the most sweeping air operations on Russian territory since President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of neighbouring Ukraine two years ago."
Reuters
Ukrainian drones attack refinery, target Moscow, disrupt power, Russia says
Ukraine launched 35 drones at targets across Russia that sparked a brief fire at an oil refinery, took aim at Moscow and disrupted electricity supplies in...
6 hours ago
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...re-krasnodar-refinery-russia-says-2024-03-17/

 

massive losses, both sides

Das letzte Gefecht des Leopard 2A6 | BILD-Lagezentrum (youtube.com)

 

The Euros understand that this is their moment of truth.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17, 2024

Click here to read the full report
Key Takeaways:

• French President Emmanuel Macron underlined the necessity for European countries to continue supporting a Ukrainian victory against Russia in order to ensure Ukrainian and European security.
• The Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU), Special Forces (SOF), and Unmanned Systems Forces reportedly conducted a successful drone strike against a Russian oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai on the night of March 16 to 17.
• Unspecified actors launched a drone at a military base in Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway republic in Moldova, on March 17 amidst an assessed ongoing Kremlin hybrid operation aimed at destabilizing Moldova from within.
• All-Russian pro-Ukrainian volunteer forces reportedly seized a Russian administrative building in the Belgorod Oblast border area amid continued cross-border raids into Belgorod Oblast.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) signaled that it intends to protect the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) against Ukrainian strikes and may have replaced the BSF commander as part of this effort.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
• Russian authorities continue to militarize children in occupied Ukraine as part of efforts to Russify Ukrainian children and create a resource for Russia’s future force generation needs. . . .

 

Putin clearly needs a buffer zone to keep armed Russians from coming back home.


/Yahoo News
Putin’s Army Reeling After 600 Killed Inside Russia, Ukraine Claims
Shannon Vavra
Mon, March 18, 2024, 4:49 PM EDT.

"The armed offensive—waged by three anti-Kremlin Russian militia groups earlier this month—has also left more than 800 Russians wounded, according Andrii Yusov, a representative of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s Main Intelligence Directorate. Speaking on a telethon Monday, Yusov added that 20 Russian armored vehicles and seven tanks have been damaged in the attacks, which he described as having caused “serious enemy losses.” The militia groups—the Freedom of Russia Legion, the Russian Volunteer Corps, and the Siberian Battalion—have said that the intended goal of their campaign is to bring an end to the war on Ukraine. They also allegedly have damaged Russian ammunition warehouses, dugouts, towers with antennae, video surveillance, a cellular communication station, a bridge, and other fortifications."

“The Slavyansk refinery produces 4.5 million metric tons of crude a year, which is mainly intended for exports, according to Reuters. Some of the facilities impacted in recent attacks have accounted for approximately 12 percent of Russia’s oil-processing capacity, according to Bloomberg.
The SBU source added that the Slavyansk-on-Kuban target was just one of 12 oil refineries attacked in Russia in recent days. Refineries in the Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, and Leningrad oblasts have also been hit by drone strikes, according to the Kyiv Independent.”
Yahoo
Putin's Army Reeling After 600 Killed Inside Russia, Ukraine ClaimsReuters/Handout/Vyacheslav Gladkov via Telegram Russia has allegedly lost 600 men in the attacks on its border regions in recent days,... (emphasis mine)
2 hours ago
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-army-reeling-600-killed-204920264.html

 

Putin has had to admit that anti-Putin Russians are attacking in Russia. Meanwhile, the Euros are ramping up their efforts.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 18, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• 
  
  
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin illegally annexed occupied Crimea 10 years ago, setting conditions for the full conquest of Ukraine Putin still seeks.
  • Russian occupation authorities have consistently oppressed Ukrainians on the peninsula — the same charge of which Putin accused the Ukrainian government to justify his invasion — and Russia has since militarized Crimea to support its broader territorial ambitions against Ukraine.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to use claimed record levels of voter turnout and support for his presidential candidacy to set informational conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine.
  • Putin responded to French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent proposals to send Western troops to Ukraine by claiming that NATO personnel are already in Ukraine.
  • Putin reemphasized the idea of a “sanitary zone” in Ukraine in a manner congruent with Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev’s recent call for the total elimination of Ukrainian statehood and absorption into the Russian Federation.
  • Putin admitted that the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian volunteer forces are comprised of Russian citizens amid the continuation of cross-border raids into Belgorod Oblast on March 18.
  • Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova baselessly accused Ukraine of conducting the reported March 17 drone strike against a military base in Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway republic of Moldova, likely as part of an ongoing Kremlin hybrid operation aimed at destabilizing Moldova.
  • Russian forces recently made a marginal confirmed advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia needs to form a veteran-led Russian “Administrative Corps” as part of the “Time of Heroes” initiative, which will incorporate Russian veterans into the Russian workforce. . . .

Ukraine’s partners continue providing military assistance to Ukraine, including through the Czech artillery ammunition initiative. Bulgarian Defense Minister Todor Tagarev stated on March 14 that Bulgaria is sending 100 armored personnel carriers (APCs) built in the 1960s and 1970s to Ukraine and that the first batch of 30 APCs arrived on March 7.[72] German defense giant Rheinmetall announced on March 14 that it intends to open at least four factories in Ukraine.[73] The Portuguese government announced that it will allocate 100 million euros (about $108.7 million) to the Czech artillery ammunition procurement initiative.[74] Greek outlet Kathimerini reported on March 15 that Greek officials stated that Greece and the Czech Republic are negotiating a deal in which the Czech government will buy weapons from Greece and Greece will ship these weapons directly to Ukraine.[75] The deal includes 2,000 Zuni rockets, 75mm rocket ammunition, 90,000 rounds of anti-tank ammunition, four million small arms ammunition cartridges, and 70 155mm M114A1 howitzers. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and they discussed supplying more artillery ammunition to Ukraine through the Czech initiative and providing more long-range rocket artillery systems through a possible long-range artillery coalition.[76] . . . .

 

No Olympics parade for the aggressors.

• IOC bars Russia, Belarus from opening parade

 

Sanctions have had an effect in Armenia.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin presented the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) as a key guarantor of Russian security and sovereignty following his victory in the Russian presidential election, likely signaling that Russian security services and siloviki will continue to represent his core constituency in his fifth presidential term.
• Russia continues efforts to build a coalition to counterbalance the West by pursuing bilateral relationships with Iran, North Korea, and China.
• Armenia's Central Bank will reportedly ban the use of Russia’s “Mir” national payment system to prevent Armenia from falling under secondary US sanctions.
• Pro-Russian actors in Moldova are continuing efforts to support wider Kremlin hybrid efforts to destabilize Moldova.
• Ukraine’s European partners continue efforts to stand up significant initiatives to provide military support to Ukraine.
• The Russian military confirmed that Northern Fleet Commander Admiral Alexander Moiseev replaced Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov as acting Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy.
• Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance near Avdiivka on March 19.
• Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairman Andrei Kartapolov stated on March 19 that the Russian military will not increase the number of conscripts summoned during the upcoming semi-annual spring conscription cycle in comparison to the previous fall 2023 conscription cycle.
• Kremlin officials continue to implicate themselves directly in the illegal removal of Ukrainian children to other Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine and the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. . . .

 

Sanctions hurt Russia. Free trade helps Ukraine.

EU Policy. Free-trade with Ukraine extended for one year ...
Euronews.com
https://www.euronews.com › My Europe › Europe News

17 minutes ago — The EU temporarily suspended all tariffs and quotas on Ukraine's agricultural exports after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and subsequently ...
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/...or-one-year-with-safeguards-for-blocs-farmers
3/20/24

 

Is Vlasov no worse than Stalin and Putin?
he was the head of the Russian Liberation Army
Stalin destroyed it
Putin continues his crimes

 

so.......yeah......its Americans.....nuff said

 

and in a similar vein....





...the US on a downward slide...?? IMHO the US needs to get rid of these old men vying for leadership....get in young blood and start re-building themselves....

 

Link to

 

Biden is running for reelection.

 

Not our finest hour.