Running Newsticker for the War in Ukraine

...lots of vehicles going....boooom......

 

Macron is looking for a new Entente Cordiale with the UK.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 25, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces are stabilizing their small salient northwest of Avdiivka and may make further tactical gains that could cause Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other tactical positions along the frontline west of Avdiivka to a more defensible line.
• Russian offensive operations west of Avdiivka aim to exploit opportunities for tactical gains while the Russian offensive operation to seize Chasiv Yar offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for operationally significant advances.
• US officials are reportedly worried that the latest package of US military aid to Ukraine may not be enough for Ukraine to regain all of its territory. US military assistance is only part of what Ukraine currently needs, moreover; but Ukraine is itself working to address other war fighting requirements — primarily manpower challenges and the expansion of its defense industrial base (DIB).
• Russian forces are reportedly fielding drones adapted to be more resilient against Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities on critical sectors of the frontline, likely in an attempt to leverage new technological capabilities to exploit a limited window before US security assistance arrives in Ukraine.
• A prominent Kremlin-awarded Russian milblogger channel announced that it opened a “media school” in the Balkans, likely supporting Kremlin efforts to expand its reach in the international information space.
• French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized the importance of Europe’s self-sufficiency for its defense and sovereignty during an April 25 speech.
• Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances near Siversk, and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin justified Russia’s ongoing efforts to nationalize Russian enterprises, including defense industrial base (DIB) enterprises on April 25. . . .

. . . . Macron stated that Russia has “no inhibitions” and “no limits” and threatens Europe’s ability to ensure its security.[28] Macron called on Europe to build a strategic concept of “credible European defense” and develop its defense industry to build its sovereignty and autonomy.[29] Macron stated that European countries should give preference to European suppliers when buying military equipment and supported proposals for an EU loan program to finance preferential buying. Macron also supported increasing Europe’s cybersecurity and cyber defense capacities, closer defense ties with the UK, and the creation of a European academy to train high-ranking military personnel. . . .

 

And Russian choppers are burning on the ground in Moscow.

https://www.newsweek.com › ukraine-destroys-russias-ka-32-helicopter-moscow-video-1894567
Ukraine Destroys Russia's Ka-32 Helicopter in Moscow: Video - Newsweek
Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) has claimed the destruction of a Russian Ka-32 multirole helicopter at the Ostafyevo airfield outside the city of Moscow. The agency posted a video ...
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-destroys-russias-ka-32-helicopter-moscow-video-1894567

 

Lines are being drawn more sharply.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26, 2024

Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• Western media continues to report that select US officials have resumed discussing the idea of “freezing the lines” where they are because the latest package of US military assistance to Ukraine may not be enough for Ukraine to regain all its territory. Supporters of the current package have not claimed that it would by itself allow Ukraine to liberate all occupied territory, and the discussion of possible end states of the war is very premature as President Joe Biden signed the bill authorizing the new package only two days ago.
• Public meetings between officials from Russia, Belarus, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Iran, and North Korea have surged in recent days, with at least 10 high-level bilateral meetings between April 22 and 26, underscoring the deepening multilateral partnership these states are constructing to confront the West.
• PRC officials claimed that NATO bears responsibility for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine amid meetings between PRC officials and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on April 26.
• Ukraine’s Western partners continue to provide Ukraine with immediate and longer-term military assistance, particularly for Ukraine’s air defenses.
• The Ukrainian military has reportedly pulled US-provided M1A1 Abrams tanks from the frontline in part because of the widespread threat of Russian drones and other strikes.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to expand the definition of prosecutable anti-war sentiment to portray Russians who oppose the war in Ukraine as opposing Russia itself.
• Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance northwest of Avdiivka, and Ukrainian forces made a confirmed advance in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, although this advance was likely not recent.
• Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Tatar-Bashkort service Idel Realii reported on April 26 that Samara Oblast is forming a new “Batyr” volunteer motorized rifle battalion.
• The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) issued a joint statement on behalf of 45 member states stating that Russia has arbitrarily detained thousands of Ukrainian civilians in occupied Ukraine and subjected them to cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment. . . .

 

Basically if this happens....Europe is headed for direct confrontation war.....this is what Pootler is looking for.....what happens when a NATO state gets invaded....and Pootler says give me what I want or I use nukes....do we negotiate then too?

 

It will get darker before the dawn.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 27, 2024

Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces will likely make significant tactical gains in the coming weeks as Ukraine waits for US security assistance to arrive at the front but remains unlikely to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.
• Well-provisioned Ukrainian forces will likely be able to prevent operationally significant Russian advances during Russia’s expected summer offensive effort, although Russian forces will nevertheless leverage select advantages and adaptations to pose a significant threat to Ukraine this summer.
• The tempo of Russian offensive operations is currently higher in the Avdiivka direction than near Chasiv Yar, as Russian forces focus on exploiting a tactical situation that is unfavorable to Ukrainian troops northwest of Avdiivka. Russian forces are likely to intensify offensive operations near Chasiv Yar in the coming weeks, however, as Chasiv Yar provides Russian forces with the opportunity for more operationally significant advances.
• Russian forces conducted large-scale cruise and ballistic missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of April 26 to 27 and have likely resumed sea based Kalibr cruise missile strikes after a long pause.
• Ukrainian forces successfully conducted drone strikes against a Russian airfield and oil refineries in Krasnodar Krai on the night of April 26 to 27.
• The Russian federal government continues efforts to codify increased control over migrant communities living in Russia.
• The Kremlin is likely setting conditions to intensify its hybrid operations against Moldova.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances north of Avdiivka and west of Donetsk City.
• Russian federal subjects continue to sponsor Russian military formations. . . .

 

The world is choosing sides. The list of Russia's allies is very short now, and getting shorter all the time.

MOSCOW TIMES
Armenia’s Envoy to the EU: ‘It Hurts to See How Moscow-Led Security Bloc Has Screwed Us’, Armenia, unhappy with Russia's waning role as a security guarantor, is seeking to strengthen its partnerships with the EU and the U.S.
By Pyotr Kozlov
Updated: April 26, 2024.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024...oscow-led-security-bloc-has-screwed-us-a84928

 

The Russians have paid an extraordinary price.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 28, 2024

Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• Recent Russian gains northwest of Avdiivka have prompted Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other limited tactical positions along the frontline west of Avdiivka, although these withdrawals have yet to facilitate rapid Russian tactical gains. Russian forces remain unlikely to achieve a deeper operationally significant penetration in the area in the near term.
• The continued Russian stabilization of their salient northwest of Avdiivka presents the Russian command with a choice of continuing to push west towards its reported operational objective in Pokrovsk or trying to drive northwards to conduct possible complementary offensive operations with the Russian effort around Chasiv Yar.
• Syrskyi also noted that the threat of a possible future Russian offensive operation against Kharkiv City is causing Ukraine to allocate additional forces and equipment to defending the city, although ISW continues to assess that the Russian military lacks the forces necessary to seize the city.
• The Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade denied a recent report that Ukrainian forces had pulled US-provided M1A1 Abrams tanks from the frontline.
• Recent Russian efforts to increase control over migrants in and entering Russia following the March 22 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack appear to be straining relations between Russia and Tajikistan.
• Russian authorities arrested several Russian journalists working for Western publications in Russia within the past several days, likely as part of an ongoing effort to limit Western and independent Russian media’s ability to reliably report on Russia.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Svatove.
• The United Kingdom’s (UK) Minister of State for the Armed Forces, Leo Docherty, stated on April 27 that the UK assesses that Russian forces have suffered 450,000 killed and wounded personnel since the start of the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. . . . .

 

And the price for Russian folly is about to soar.

"There are ongoing efforts to securely accommodate the F-16s in Ukraine so they can effectively carry out missions and defend our airspace," he [Yevlash] said. According to him, once Ukraine receives the fighters, the Defense Forces will be able to conduct various operations, including repelling air strikes and inflicting damage on adversaries.
"However, this necessitates proper preparation of their basing locations. It involves substantial costs, including underground shelters and bunkers. Therefore, methods are being developed on how best to deploy them, Yevlash said."
RBC UKRAINE, How Ukraine will protect F-16s at airfields: Air Force response, UKRAINE, MON, APRIL 29, 2024 - 10:43. (emphasis mine)
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/how-ukraine-will-protect-f-16s-at-airfields-1714376621.html

 

...that's a pretty up-beat assessment....I only hope he's right.....in this war a weapons system really only has a 72 hour period of effectiveness until it's countered.....there are already heads being scratched in the UK/US/France etc. on what is happening to their hi-tech weapons they relied so much that don't work anymore....these aged F-16 aircraft are marching headlong into an electronic warfare nightmare, manned by an enemy that is very very good at electronic warfare.....these aircraft are going up against an enemy just waiting for these newly minted in-experienced pilots with little or no up to date ECM capability and little or no experience of fighting a NATO jet in a highly complex highly fluid situation whilst in multi-ship formation.

I hope to crap I'm wrong but I fear that hardened aircraft shelters are merely deckchairs on the Titianic....I fear these guys are going to get pasted over the countryside in short order.....I really really hope I'm wrong.....

 

...and another one bites the dust. Along with GMLRS and Excalibur being withdrawn those small glide bombs also don't work anymore....

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/...e_in_ukraines_modern_war_realities-10330.html

 

Reciprocal development.

 

The NATO SecGen is a visionary hero.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 29, 2024

Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces secured additional marginal tactical gains northwest and southwest of Avdiivka as of April 29, but have not made significant advances in the Avdiivka direction over the last 24 hours.
• Russian forces have the opportunity to choose among multiple tactical directions for future offensive drives near Avdiivka, but it remains unclear where they will focus their efforts in the near future.
• Investigations by both Ukrainian news agencies and Russian opposition outlets suggest that Russia is denying the legal guardians of forcibly deported and adopted Ukrainian children the ability to repatriate these children, further undermining the Kremlin’s claims that the deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children is a necessary humanitarian endeavor.
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated during an unexpected visit to Kyiv on April 29 that Ukraine’s Western allies must provide long-term, predictable military assistance to Ukraine and signal to the Kremlin that Russia cannot “wait out” Western support for Ukraine.
• The Kremlin is pursuing a hybrid campaign directly targeting NATO states, including using GPS jamming and sabotaging military logistics in NATO members’ territory.
• Telegram recently temporarily blocked chatbots meant to facilitate civilian reports on Russian military activity to official Ukrainian channels, including some channels run by Ukrainian security services.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
• Ukrainian officials continue to report that Russian authorities are coercing Ukrainians in occupied Ukraine to join the Russian military. . . . .

Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk stated on April 29 that Russian authorities have stopped transporting fuel across the Kerch Strait railway bridge for the past month due to the threat of a Ukrainian strike igniting the fuel as it crossed the bridge, possibly destroying the bridge.[62] Pletenchuk emphasized that the Kerch Strait Bridge - likely referring to both the road and railway bridges - do not provide essential Russian military logistics. Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) Head Vasyl Malyuk stated in March 2024 that Russian forces have stopped using the Kerch Strait railway bridge for military and logistics transport.[63] . . . .

Ukraine continues efforts to expand its domestic defense industry and increase joint production with its Western allies to support the war effort. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on April 25 that Ukrainian defense industrial companies are producing unspecified weapons and equipment at a higher rate than the Ukrainian government can fund and that Ukrainian officials are working to encourage foreign investment to fund additional projects.[72] Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced on April 23 that Ukraine issued domestically produced armored vehicles to a Ukrainian unit.[73] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Yuriy Dzhygyr stated that roughly half of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) contracts for weapons and military equipment are with Ukrainian manufacturers.[74] Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated on April 26 that Ukraine and Latvia have agreed to increase joint drone production.[75]

Ukraine's Western allies continue to promise and provide additional military assistance to Ukraine. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal met with Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles on April 27 and announced that Australia will transfer 50 million AUD ($32.8 million) in ground-to-air MANPADS munitions, over 30 million AUD ($19.69 million) to Ukraine’s drone coalition, and roughly 20 million AUD ($13,1 million) for other military needs.[76] Australia will also transfer an unspecified number of air-to-ground munitions to Ukraine. Canadian Defense Minister William Blair announced on April 26 that Canada will provide three million CAD (roughly $2.2 million) for domestic drone production in Ukraine, an additional 13 million CAD ($9.5 million) to the Czech ammunition initiative for Ukraine, and an additional 100 Skyranger drones to Ukraine.[77] The Spanish MoD stated that it will deliver an unspecified number of 155mm and 120mm artillery shells and air defense missiles to Ukraine in the coming months and will also deliver small arms, logistics vehicles, armored infantry fighting vehicles, anti-tank weapons, and artillery systems in the next two months.[78] The Danish MoD announced on April 25 that the Danish parliament and Cabinet of Ministers agreed to increase Denmark’s military assistance to Ukraine by 4.4 billion Danish kroner ($632.27 million) in 2024.[79] The Lithuanian MoD reported on April 23 that Lithuania recently provided an unspecified number of M577 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine.[80] Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas stated that Lithuania is also considering providing Ukraine with unspecified radar systems in the near future.[81] European Union (EU) High Commissioner Josep Borrell announced that the Czech ammunition initiative should begin deliveries of artillery shells to Ukraine at the end of May or beginning of June.[82]

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder, and the Belgian Council of Ministers stated on April 26 that Belgium will send the first F-16 aircraft to Ukraine sometime in 2024 and will do everything possible to deliver them before the end of the year.[83] Belgian officials added that Belgium will also allocate an additional 200 million euros ($214.3 million) to the German-led defense aid coalition and will provide additional air defense missiles to Ukraine.[84] . . . .

 

Probably better to use them when Russia makes mistakes creating vulnerability. They seem to do that rather often.

 

interesting thought....NATO though operates on the concept of precision outweighs numbers and accordingly produces systems based on PNT....however what happens to your PNT in a GPS denied environment.....?? Russia on the other hand bases their strategy on force of numbers...conflicting strategies at play here....force versus precision....

 

Defeat the GPS denier tech.

 

They always make mistakes....they still group their conscripts in large numbers so HIMARS takes them out.

 

I'm hearing Georgia has large protests looking to toss out the RuZzian friendlies.....the Kremlin chimp has no respect and can't help Georgia....his military is dead in Ukraine.

 

...a smidge out of date but just noticed it in the clutter....

 

...this is interesting...

 

As a former Raytheon employee I'm quite proud of the Javelin.