Running Newsticker for the War in Ukraine

Russian rebels and Western sanctions are giving the Pootster headaches.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2024

Click to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• The Russian military command appears to be forming reserves capable of sustaining ongoing offensive operations in Ukraine, but these reserves are unlikely to be able to function as cohesive large-scale penetration or exploitation formations this year.
• Russian offensive tactics will likely increasingly pressure Ukrainian defenses as long as delays in Western security assistance persist.
• Russian forces conducted a larger series of missile strikes targeting Kyiv City on the night of March 20 to 21.
• NATO Military Committee Chairperson Admiral Rob Bauer stated that neither Ukraine nor NATO prompted Russia to invade Ukraine and that Ukrainian forces’ adaptations and innovations have in part changed modern warfare.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on March 21 that Vice Admiral Konstantin Kabantsov became acting Commander of the Russian Northern Fleet.
• Bloomberg reported on March 20 that an unspecified source close to the Kremlin stated that the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian incursions into Belgorod Oblast are forcing the Russian military to divert forces from the frontline to Belgorod Oblast, although ISW has not observed such claims.
• US sanctions continue to influence the financial sector in post-Soviet countries, as two banks in Kazakhstan recently banned the use of Russia’s “Mir” national payment system to prevent secondary sanctions.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on March 21.
• Russian officials continue to highlight the work of Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) in supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine. . . .

 

yeah....not sure why the US is wanting to clampdown on Ukraine fighting back...well ....actually I am....its' trying to look strong to the trump cult mentality....sure, fuel price rises just before an election isn't optically great I know but that's an OPEC thing and sod all impact from a few Ukrainian drones!! Saudi has been steadily reducing supply for a long time so maybe that's the avenue of attack....seems like making noises at Ukraine is just optics for an American audience but the ramifications are...well....as you can see worldwide. US leadership is going to sacrifice Ukraine so that one of two decrepit old has-beens can be elected for 4 years....then what....

 

It's all about nothing except the price of gasoline at the pump as we approach the election.

 

Imperialist nations that engage in aggressive wars of conquest eventually start behaving like rabid dogs. There is only one cure for that sickness.
The sooner the better.

The Guardian
Ukraine war briefing: ‘massive missile attack’ hits Dnipro hydroelectric dam and *** affects nuclear plant*** The Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was on the verge of blackout after a “massive missile attack on Ukraine” on Friday morning cut one of...
14 hours ago
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...tin-forces-behind-raids-into-russia-speak-out

 

Russian speakers lost Ukraine, because Kyiv, Cherkasy, Lutsk, Lviv voted for Poroshenko

 

IMO, Biden, like most of our Presidents, has always been up against serious resistance from Permanent Washington, and a very hostile RP that still effectively controls the purse.

Joe Biden Faces a Deep State Revolt
WSJ
https://www.wsj.com › Opinion › Review & Outlook
Nov 15, 2023 — President Biden has been learning lately what life is like for Republican Presidents. Parts of the deep state, to borrow a phrase, .
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-ex...oe-biden-israel-ceasefire-gaza-hamas-f22374d0

Biden trying to push molasses uphill:
Biden Calls Russia's 'Murderous Assault' Against Ukraine ..
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
https://www.rferl.org › biden-state-of-the-union-ukrain...
23 hours ago — U.S. President Joe Biden said the United States is united in its support for Ukraine as it opposes the "murderous assault" of Russia's invasion and that ...


Biden Says War In Ukraine Is A Test For Democracies And ...
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
https://www.rferl.org › biden-ukrainian-refugees-putin-...
17 hours ago — In a major speech on the war in Ukraine, U.S. President Joe Biden has said that the conflict is a clear test for democracies around the world, ...

 

"Permanent Washington" has generally favored Democrats throughout my adult life.
The "deep state" is a myth.

 

The Russians' embrace of China was bound to erode their alliance with India sooner or later.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 23, 2024

Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• Russian authorities claimed to have arrested the four attackers and seven others involved in the March 22 “Crocus City Hall” concert venue attack, which Russian authorities reported killed at least 133 civilians.
• ISW assesses that the Islamic State (IS) is very likely responsible for the Crocus City Hall attack.
• The Kremlin nevertheless and without evidence quickly attempted to tie Ukrainian actors to the Crocus City Hall attack but has yet to formally accuse Ukraine of involvement in the attack.
• Russian ultranationalists responded to the attack by reiterating typically xenophobic calls for anti-migrant policies, reflecting the growing tension in Russian society over the mistreatment of migrants and the impacts migrant disenfranchisement could have on expanding a viable recruitment base in Russia for Salafi-Jihadi groups.
• Russian sources accused Ukrainian actors of reportedly conducting a successful drone strike against a Russian oil refinery in Samara Oblast on the night of March 22 to 23.
• Russia is reportedly delaying the delivery of two S-400 air defense systems to India, likely due to limitations in Russia’s production of S-400 systems, an increased need for air defense systems to protect cities and strategic enterprises in Russia from Ukrainian drone strikes, and a reported souring of Russian relations with India.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on March 23 that will release individuals from criminal liability if they are called up for mobilization or sign military service contracts. . . . .

 

The bureaucracy is part of every state, and bureaucrats frequently disagree with elected officials and work against them. This is inevitable, but it does not mean that "Permanent Washington" is a secret state within the USG. The threat from a supposed "Deep State" is, IMO, exaggerated.

"The only thing that saves us from the bureaucracy is its inefficiency." Eugene McCarthy

 

I was a member of that bureaucracy for 34 years.

 

TG we have some exceptionally competent bureaucrats.

"Just remember: if ever you feel weighed down by the bureaucracy and often mundanity of modern life, don't fight the frustration. Let it be the catalyst for whimsy."
James Veitch

IMO, "Permanent Washington" saved the rest of Ukraine from Russia after the loss of Crimea in 2014.

 

Russia continues to loses more warships, and fires missiles into Poland.

The Independent
Two Russian warships hit in Crimea strikes, Ukraine says - live
LIVE57 minutes ago
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...war-poland-missile-putin-latest-b2517735.html

Russia's government has become an existential threat to Russia.

 

Reactions to the Crocus attack are making Kadyrov's position more difficult.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 24, 2024

Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces struck a Black Sea Fleet (BSF) communications center in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, and reportedly struck an oil depot and at least partially damaged two BSF landing ships on the night of March 23.
• Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of February 23 to 24, mainly targeting southern and western Ukraine.
• Russian forces are reportedly approaching the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast but are unlikely to threaten the settlement with encirclement or seizure in the coming months.
• The seizure of Chasiv Yar would offer Russian forces limited but not insignificant operational benefits if they could achieve it.
• The Islamic State’s (IS) Amaq News Agency published footage on March 23 purportedly filmed from the perspective of the attackers involved in the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack.
• Russian officials proposed more anti-migrant policies in response to the Crocus City Hall attack.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov expressed concerns about Russian ultranationalist reactions to the Crocus City Hall attack.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional fighting along the entire line of contact on March 24.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on March 23 establishing a legal basis for enrolling members of the All-Russian Cossack Society into the Russian military’s mobilization reserve, likely as part of ongoing crypto-mobilization and military formalization efforts. . . . .

 

1900 km strike on refinery
MASSIVE Ukrainian Strike on Crimea, Refinery 1900km deep in Russia hit. (youtube.com)

 

While the Russians sink into confusion trying to sustain their propaganda narrative, Ukraine steadily goes about the business of war-making.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 25, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

The March 22 Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall is a notable Russian intelligence and law enforcement failure, and explaining currently available open-source evidence does not require any wider and more complicated conspiracy theory either within or against the Russian state.

• • Kremlin officials’ and Russian ultranationalists’ continued insistence on blaming Ukraine for an attack that IS-K very likely committed may come at the expense of Russian internal security and civilian lives.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed that Lieutenant General Esedulla Abachev became the Leningrad Military District (LMD) Deputy Commander as the Russian military continues the formal disbandment of the Western Military District (WMD) and recreation of the LMD and Moscow Military District (MMD).
  • Ukrainian officials stated that the Ukrainian strike on occupied Sevastopol, Crimea on the night of March 23 targeted more Black Sea Fleet (BSF) ships and caused more damage than initially reported.
  • The Kremlin continues to lean on long debunked narratives as part of its wider information operations aimed at discrediting and undermining Western support for Ukraine.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka on March 25. . . . .
  • Ukraine’s international partners continue efforts to provide Ukraine with critical artillery ammunition. Finland and Canada announced on March 20 that both countries will join the Czech-led initiative to source artillery ammunition for Ukraine from outside the European Union (EU).[63] Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen stated that Finland will provide €30 million ($33 million) to the initiative, and Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair announced that Canada will contribute over 40 million CAD ($29 million).[64] Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský reiterated on March 19 that the Czech initiative has sourced over 300,000 shells for Ukraine thus far and that the first batch of shells will arrive in Ukraine before June 2024.[65]
    
    Ukraine’s European partners also continue efforts to support Ukrainian drone, anti-drone, aviation, and air defense capabilities. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles announced on March 21 that Australia will join the UK- and Latvia-led coalition to provide drones to Ukraine.[66] The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on March 22 that Lithuania delivered an unspecified number and type of anti-drone systems to Ukraine.[67] The Czech Republic also announced the transfer of its last two available Mi-24/25 helicopters to Ukraine on March 21.[68] Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren stated on March 20 that the Netherlands will purchase and provide over €150 million ($163 million) in ammunition for F-16 aircraft in addition to the €200 million ($217 million) Dutch contribution to Ukrainian drone efforts.[69] The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated on March 22 that a new £60 million ($76 million) package provided through the International Fund for Ukraine will provide Ukraine with new advanced surveillance drones, including £20 million ($25 million) for Ukraine’s air defense needs.[70]
    
    Ukraine continues efforts to bolster its domestic defense industrial base (DIB) by increasing technological innovation and defense production. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi identified the development and manufacturing of unmanned systems as one of his priorities and assigned Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi to supervise the development of drones and their flexible integration into the Ukrainian military.[71] Ukrainian Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated on March 21 that Ukraine is already producing domestically 90 percent of necessary drone components, including for long-range and naval drones.[72]
    
    Denmark reaffirmed its bilateral commitment to Ukraine during the Danish-Ukrainian Defense Industry Conference on March 23–25. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov highlighted the importance of joint Danish-Ukrainian technological and defense production and thanked his Danish counterparts for facilitating increased cooperation with Ukraine.[73] The Ukrainian MoD additionally signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Danish Defense Procurement and Logistics Organization on March 25.[74]
    
    European states continue efforts to build out their own DIBs. French-government owned weapons manufacturer Nexter reported on March 19 that it will increase its production of artillery shells by a factor of eight over the next three years.[75] French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu previously named Nexter as one of three French defense companies that has a partnership with Ukraine.[76] Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu announced on March 18 that German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall will build a gunpowder plant in Romania as part of a €400 million ($433 million) joint project between Rheinmetall and the European Commission.[77] . . . .

 

Another smart move that will strengthen NATO.

“GLOBAL FORCE 2024 — Swedish manufacturer Saab announced today it will build a “new advanced manufacturing facility and center of innovation for weapon systems” in the US.
“The innovative new site will support the engineering and production of missile weapon systems for the U.S. military, such as components for the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) system, and close combat weapons,” the Stockholm-based firm said.”
BREAKING DEFENSE, AIR WARFARE, GLOBAL, LAND WARFARE
Sweden’s Saab to open new US-based munitions factory,
The site "will support the engineering and production of missile weapon systems for the U.S. military, such as components for the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) system," the company said.
By LEE FERRAN, on March 26, 2024 at 12:55 PM

Breaking Defense
Sweden’s Saab to open new US-based munitions factoryThe site "will support the engineering and production of missile weapon systems for the U.S. military, such as components for the Ground-Launched Small...
1 hour ago [3/26/24]
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/03/swedens-saab-to-open-new-us-based-munitions-factory/

 

The Crocus attack remains a difficult circle for Putin to square.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 26, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that the Crocus City Hall attackers originally fled toward Belarus not Ukraine, directly undermining the Kremlin narrative on Ukraine’s involvement, possibly to head off questions about why the attackers headed toward Belarus in the first place.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Kremlin officials appear to be struggling to maintain a consistent rhetorical line about the Crocus City Hall attack, indicating that the Kremlin has not fully figured out how to reconcile its information operations with the reality of its intelligence and law enforcement failure.
• Russian officials are proposing actionable but likely impractical solutions to the emotional outcries for retribution in response to the Crocus City Hall attack.
• The Moldovan Constitutional Court reversed a ruling banning the Kremlin-affiliated Shor Party on March 26, which will likely allow pro-Russian Moldovan actors to reconsolidate around the Shor Party and reverse the impacts of the previous Moldovan ban on the party.
• Ukrainian officials stated on March 26 that Ukrainian forces successfully conducted a strike on the night of March 23 to 24 against a Ukrainian ship that Russian forces had captured in 2014.
• Separate investigations conducted by Western media outlets have found that Russian forces may be using Starlink terminals in Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Bakhmut on March 26.
• The Russian military has reportedly started recruiting personnel for elements of the newly reformed Leningrad Military District (LMD). . . .

 

Russia is losing its ability to jam signal traffic to and from drones.

“RAPID CHANGES ON THE BATTLEFIELD
Some military experts said immediate communication between defence companies and soldiers may become a more common feature of warfare given the rapid technological innovation. The trend could have implications for everything from procurement to training.

“The technology is moving very quickly. I would say maybe a six week learning cycle on the battlefield,” said Nick Reynolds, Research Fellow in Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK-based defence think-tank.

“Our procurement systems are not optimised for this.” Last month, a military unit in Ukraine asked Evolve Dynamics to make changes to its technology to make it safer for the pilot.
Working at the British site adorned with Ukrainian flags and messages of thanks from soldiers, staff worked out how to separate a drone’s radio box from its control.

Having sent instructions, the military unit were able to adopt the change within 24 hours of the request. Dewhirst, who travels to Ukraine each month, decided to fund the modification after hearing soldiers were going to pay for it themselves. Drone units in Ukraine often pay for their own equipment through private means or crowd-funding.”
REUTERS, UK firm supports Ukrainian armed forces in drone tech race, By Sarah Young, Mar 27, 2024 | 10:45 AM. (Emphasis mine)
https://kelo.com/2024/03/27/uk-firm-supports-ukrainian-armed-forces-in-drone-tech-race/

 

The Putinists' narrative is becoming increasingly complicated and self-contradictory.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 27, 2024

Click here to read the full report
Key Takeaways:

• The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) released its 38th report on the human rights situation in Ukraine on March 26, confirming several of ISW’s longstanding assessments about Russia’s systematic violations of international human rights and humanitarian law in occupied territories and towards Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).
• Russian officials are tying the US and the West to a broader set of “terrorist” attacks against Russia following the Crocus City Hall attack, likely to intensify rhetoric about alleged Western and Ukrainian threats to generate greater domestic support for the war in Ukraine.
• Russian authorities are increasing legal pressure against migrants in Russia following recent Russian officials’ proposals for harsher measures against migrant communities in response to the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and southwest of Donetsk City on March 27.
• Russian Storm-Z personnel continue to complain about their poor treatment by the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as the MoD tries to posture efficacy in its force generation and social benefit allocation system. . . . .

Russian news outlet Vedemosti reported that US-sanctioned Russian company Baikal Electronics is struggling to domestically package semiconductor chips to produce processors and that over half of its domestically produced processors are defective.[52] Vedemosti reported that Baikal Electronics began to experiment with domestically packaging chips in Russia at the end of 2021 and that outdated equipment and a lack of experienced employees caused the large amount of processor defects. . . . .

 

"Accidents" happen.

The Moscow Times
Russian Military Jet Crashes Into Sea Off Annexed Crimea A Russian military plane crashed on Thursday into waters off the coast of annexed Crimea, the Moscow-installed governor of Sevastopol said.
46 minutes ago
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024...et-crashes-into-sea-off-annexed-crimea-a84671

 

A little Western (and especially US) fortitude would go a long way now.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 28, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Ukraine is currently preventing Russian forces from making significant tactical gains along the entire frontline, but continued delays in US security assistance will likely expand the threat of Russian operational success, including in non-linear and possibly exponential ways.
• The continued degradation of Ukraine’s air defense umbrella provides one of the most immediate avenues through which Russian forces could generate non-linear operational impacts.
• Russia’s ability to conduct opportunistic but limited offensive actions along Ukraine’s international border with Russia offers Russia further opportunities to constrain Ukrainian manpower and materiel, but Western aid provisions and Ukrainian efforts to address manpower challenges would ease the impacts of such Russian efforts.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to make sensationalized statements as part of Russia’s ongoing reflexive control campaign, which aims to deter further Western military aid provisions to Ukraine and deflect attention from the growing Russian force posturing against NATO.
• Putin’s March 27 statements are neither new nor surprising, and best illustrate how the Kremlin routinely overwhelms the Western information space, often with irrelevant or decontextualized truths rather than with outright misinformation or disinformation, to shape global perceptions and advance its own long-term objectives.
• The Russian Investigative Committee unsurprisingly claimed that it has evidence tying Ukraine to the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack amid continued Kremlin efforts to link Ukraine and the West to the terrorist attack to generate more domestic support for the war in Ukraine.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed concern for heightened ethnic tension in Russian society following the Crocus City Hall attacks and may be falsely blaming Ukraine and the West for the Crocus City Hall attack in order to divert domestic attention away from ethnic tensions.
• Ukrainian drone strikes against oil refineries in Russia are reportedly forcing Russia to import gasoline from Belarus.
• An independent investigation found that international information operation campaigns linked to deceased Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin remained active, despite the Russian government shutting down media companies and organizations overtly linked to Prigozhin after his death.
• Senior Russian officials are intensifying their victim-blaming of Armenian leadership as Armenia continues to distance itself from security relations with Russia after the Kremlin abandoned Armenia to its fate as it lost Nagorno-Karabakh.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Donetsk City.
• Russia continues efforts to source ballistic missiles and other weapons from North Korea for use in Ukraine. . . . .

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov warned on March 28 that Russian actors are conducting the “Perun” and “Maidan-3” information operations through Russian embassies and official events in unspecified “neutral” countries.[85] The GUR previously reported that the “Perun” information operation aims to destabilize Ukrainian and Western political environments, deflect Russia’s responsibility for its invasion of Ukraine, and deliberately misrepresent living conditions in occupied Ukraine in foreign media.[86] The “Maidan-3” information operation aims to sow panic and discontent in the Ukrainian population and drive a wedge between civilians and military and political leadership in Ukraine.[87] Budanov assessed that these information operations have certain successes, and ISW had previously assessed that Russia uses its diplomatic channels to influence international support for Ukraine.[88] . . . .

 

Ukraine still has many reliable allies in the war against Russian imperialism.

“In March, Kyiv managed to attract about $9 billion in total external financing, the Finance Ministry added. The European Union, Canada, Japan, the International Monetary Fund and Britain were among the donors.” US NEWS, Ukraine Gets $1.5 Billion Funding Tranche Under World Bank Programme, By Reuters, March 29, 2024, at 6:27 a.m.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...ng-tranche-under-world-bank-programme-says-pm

 

Putin's "special military operation" has now become a "holy war." That's some pretty significant mission creep.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29, 2024

Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• The Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP), a Kremlin-controlled organization and a known tool within the Russian hybrid warfare toolkit, held the World Russian People’s Council in Moscow on March 27 and 28 and approved an ideological and policy document tying several Kremlin ideological narratives together in an apparent effort to form a wider nationalist ideology around the war in Ukraine and Russia’s expansionist future.
• The ROC MP intensified Kremlin rhetoric about Russia’s war in Ukraine and cast it as an existential and civilizational “holy war,” a significant inflection for Russian authorities who have so far carefully avoided officially framing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as any kind of “war.”
• The ROC MP called for the codification of elements of the Russkiy Mir and may be gauging public support for the formal inclusion of ethnic Ukrainians and Belarusians in the Kremlin’s concept of the Russian nation.
• The ROC MP heavily emphasized Russia’s need for traditional family values and an updated migration policy to counter Russia’s ongoing demographic crisis.
• The ROC MP appears to be combining previously parallel Kremlin narrative efforts into a relatively cohesive ideology focusing on national identity and demographic resurgence that promises Russians a period of national rejuvenation in exchange for social and civic duties.
• Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stressed that materiel shortages from delays in Western security assistance are constraining Ukrainian forces and forcing Ukraine to conduct a strategic defense.
• The Russian military likely expanded the target set for Russia’s strike campaign against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure to include hydroelectric power plants.
• Russia vetoed an annual United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution extending a monitoring panel tracking adherence to UN sanctions against North Korea on March 28.
• The Kremlin appears to have succeeded in pressuring Telegram to further censor extremist content following the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack, highlighting the Kremlin’s ability to pressure significant actors within the Russian information space to act in its interests.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on March 29.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is preparing for Russia’s semi-annual spring conscription cycle, which will begin on April 1.
• Russian occupation authorities continue law enforcement crackdowns, including against the Crimean Tatar ethnic minority, to consolidate control over occupied Ukraine. . . . .

 

Ukraine's victory is the creation of the Moscow kingdom, which existed before Emperor Peter

 

The Ukrainians can hold their own on the battlefield. They are being defeated in Washington.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30, 2024
Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that delays in American security assistance have forced Ukraine to cede the battlefield initiative, not contest the battlefield initiative, and continue to threaten Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.
• Russian missile strikes destroyed one of the largest thermal power plants in Kharkiv Oblast on March 22, as continued delays in US security assistance degrade Ukraine’s air defense umbrella and increase Russia’s ability to significantly damage Ukraine’s energy grid.
• Russian forces are demonstrating technological and tactical adaptations and are increasingly using unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) on the frontlines of Donetsk Oblast.
• The Russian military is reportedly forming mobile fire groups to mitigate against Ukrainian drone strike threats but will likely struggle to field these groups at the required scale in the near term.
• Russian authorities continue to escalate legal pressure against migrants in the wake of the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack, prompting both Russian authorities to increase deportations and migrants to voluntarily leave Russia.
• Positional engagements continued throughout the theater on March 30.
• Russian mobilized personnel continue to suffer high casualties while fighting in Ukraine. . . .