The Looming Ukraine Debacle

I've reported and stopping to discuss with you. Bye.

 

Oh...why so?

 

Zoomy is from Batum, Georgia.

 

It's jealousy. All of these Americans would die to have Vladimir Putin as their potus.

 

Viska...lives in Moskva, posts nonsense on PF, and is angry that he can't get to Germany to live the good life.

 

Yes...having to use an outdoor $hitter(in -30F) has been a dream of mine, and using pages of Pravda to wipe my backside.

 

Aren't all living things in that same category?

 

You are lucky, many Americans in their cardboard boxes under bridges do it in the gutter and use the NY times to wipe their ass.

 

Of course we can evoke memories of our previous years of glorious destruction but that would likely posses a soul to the point of madness

 

Containment of an aspiring resurgent empire that threatens global stability. We also gave Ukraine security guarantees in exchange for them giving up their nukes. Our words need to mean something to be heeded. It's sort of a big IF in terms of NATO countries remaining safe since Trump being elected would call NATO's credibility, maybe existence, into question.

Our own borders are not actually a major problem. Yeah, maybe too many people at once and we should think about how to make it more manageable, but not a major threat.

 

And they don't freeze to death on average either....whereas how many hundreds of RuZzians across the country get dragged out of back alleys, shacks, dumpsters,etc, from freezing to death each and every winter...LOL.

Or how many are found in Spring when the snow melts, that froze in snowbanks over winter and were buried under more snow.

 

My dude: You ain't got a leg to stand on regarding mastery of the English language.

 

It gets cold in the winter in NY. Nobody can survive winter on the streets unless you're in Africa or Arabia.

 

He's pretty good for a non native speaker tbh. He certainly gets our humour and they do say humour is a significant marker of intelligence.

 

Looks like a Saddam Hussein Hitler wannabe.

Really?

The door is that way

Did you see that look on his face at the beginning though, like a lighting strike straight from TMH hit him.

 

Claiming part of another sovereign nations territory is yours and occupying by force it doesn't mean you get to whine about how 'unfair it all is' when that nation objects and fights back.

That aside, for the purposes of this particular point it doesn't matter who started it. That 'point' was/is that if your foreign policy objective is to weaken the military power of a hostile nation which is at war with a friendlier power? It costs you relatively little to provide armaments and equipment to that friendly nation. After which you can sit back and watch your 'friend' do that job for you. This is exactly the opportunity that the US and NATO now have.

 

Sure, US and NATO enjoy the battle. They advised Ukraine to fight until the last Ukrainian. Sooner or later it will happen as Russia simply has more people, more natural resources than Ukraine. Ukraine has no chances for victory in this war, unless of course NATO intervenes with regular army and more heavy weapons.

 

This war is the end of the "Rashka" viska.

RuZzian military is getting destroyed by second rate NATO hardware.....Azov just captured a "modern" version of T-72/3 tank....drones have hit Serpukov ship in Baltic....in fact UAF has shifted to targets in the Baltic Sea now, since they run outta targets in the Black Sea.

RuZzian Navy's been pushed out entirely from the Western areas of Black Sea.

Ukraine tried to negotiate....visko, Pootler the hard a$$ that he is said no.

Soon 500K+ dead orcs visko....at 1000-1200 KIA or more a day....by years end....800K dead? All of RuZzfascistas best are fertilizer , Baltic is a NATO lake, and the Black Sea blockade turn into a horse fart....

 

No problem.Russia has more 'heavy' weapons you say? NATO will just have to get by with having more 'smart' weapons I guess. Oh and more money of course. (So, so, much more money).

And just to be clear Russia does indeed have more heavy weapons than Ukraine. The problem is that increasingly most of them are T-64s!

Putin started his invasion with about 3200 modern tanks in active duty units and the ready reserve. Two years later? He has about 800 of those left. And yes he can produce more (200-400 a year ) 'modern tanks'. The only problem being they won't be as 'modern' as the tanks they are replacing because they won't have certain essential western components that went into the best of the previous generation of vehicles. Most of which are either now in Ukrainian hands or otherwise littering Ukrainian farm land in bits and pieces.

Russia certainly does have a clear advantage in a towed artillery and infantry - hence the whole 1916 vibe going on with its current offensives. But all means is that the next few months will be a slow grueling slaughter - for both sides. And the clock is ticking, that stockpile of old cold war equipment that is being mobilized? More than half of it is already gone and at the rate it is being consumed all of it be used up by 2026.

 

Trump is a big supporter of NATO. He forced member nations to live up to their commitment of spending 2% of their GNP on defense, thereby strengthening NATO immensely. I still can't find anything about Ukraine that is essential to US national security.

Your comment about the Budapest Memorandum is valid though.

 

Because its a concern for the rest of NATO. That's how alliances like are supposed to work. Something that is very important to your allies is supposed to be of at least some importance to you. The Baltic States and Poland do not want Ukraine to fall into Russian hands or rather to be more accurate into Putin's hands! If for no other reason than the fall of Ukraine would lead to a massive refugee crisis. But beyond that Putin has also stated in the past its his mission to to restore Russian influence to its former (cold war) boundaries if at all possible. So you get a choice.

You can deal with Russian aggression on the eastern flank of NATO now while assisting Ukraine does not require the activation of Article 5 or later when it does and the US finds itself has no choice but to confront Russia directly. Or are you going to say the same thing if/when that happens? 'Hmmm I still can't find anything about *** that is essential to US national security' and just have the US abandon the NATO alliance entirely? Because Putin will keep pushing and pushing until NATO (the US included ) says 'stop' and forces him to the negotiation table to end this dam war.

And yes Zelenskyy wont be happy when that happens either because, like Putin he sure as hell is not going to get all of what he wants out of this war either!

 

It's not that simple. Currently, our military war stocks are being bled dry by Ukraine (China loves that!). Such attrition may lead us to be unable to go to war if required (China loves that!).

The Russian military has proven itself to be totally incompetent from its first move into Ukraine where it simply lined up its armored forces bumper to bumper and got slaughtered by US made Javelins to its inability to establish air superiority over an enemy that had essentially no Air Force. Putin certainly does want to re-establish the old power of Russia/USSR, but with an army that abandons the front and threatens Moscow, an Air force that shoots down its own aircraft, and fire support that blows up Russian territory, I would categorize his chances of achieving that goal as similar to the chances of Hitler rising from the dead and re-establishing the Third Reich.

 

I guess by 2026 there would be no Ukrainian army.

 

I have to disagree with that first part (and have in the past). As I have stated int he past any war with China over say Taiwan will be an air and sea war. Ukraine is a largely a ground war so the systems it needs to hold its own aren't the ones the US will deploy in and around Taiwan. The key choke points you have worried about in the past (artillery shells and ground base anti-tank/anti-air) are all seeing massive increases in production. US shell production alone have already doubled and will hit 6 fold increases by 2030! Production will have tripled by the start of next year. And everyone else is also scaling up production including other NATO Members, Japan & South Korea. What Ukraine desperately needs however is longer range fires including (old) HIMAR systems.

Russia meanwhile has an advantage in dumb artillery, manpower and long range fires (particularity air launched systems). But that's abut it. The thing is without continued western support that might be enough to convince Putin to keep going . If he sees western support and particularity American support waning. As for China? There is zero indication at the moment to indicate that an invasion of Taiwan is imminent. Not one, repeat one expert commentator I have been able to finds thinks what your describing is likely into occur in the near future if only because XI already has too many urgent domestic problems to deal with without adding one more huge one to the pile! And if it is every seriously considered? Preparations will be to all concerned weeks (more likely months in advance because you simply can't hide the preparations for a seaborne invasion of that scale from modern surveillance systems. Which gives the US time to react and redirect supplies as required (mostly).