Kyiv:UAF begin offensive ops in specific areas.

Ukraine's ability to design and manufacture new cheap powerful weapons systems to stymy Putin's war machine is unprecedented.

“Ukraine has started mass-producing two sea drones capable of carrying up to one ton of explosives as the military sets its sights on retaking Crimea, a crown jewel in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions for the neighboring country.

"These are already new generations of drones, on the improvement of which the team of SBU specialists worked and continues to work together with other members of the Security and Defense Forces," Artem Dekhtiarenko, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s security service SBU, said in a press release.

"This means that the SBU can reach a target almost anywhere in the Black Sea," Dekhtiarenko added.”
FOX NEWS, Ukraine's 1-ton payload drones can help retake Crimea as Kyiv seeks to destroy bridge: report, Ukraine has increasingly relied on drones to make gains against the Russian forces. By Peter Aitken Fox News, Published April 20, 2024.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukrai...etake-crimea-kyiv-seeks-destroy-bridge-report

 

20 Apr: Fierce Raid! Ukrainians OBLITERATE RUSSIAN FORCES BUILD-UP FOR THE KHARKIV OFFENSIVE

 

A US military strength is logistics. We will now showcase that.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2024
Apr 20, 2024 - ISW Press



The US House of Representatives passed a supplemental appropriations bill on April 20 providing for roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine. The bill must now be passed by the Senate and signed by the president before aid can begin to flow. These requirements and the logistics of transporting US materiel to the frontline in Ukraine will likely mean that new US assistance will not begin to affect the situation on the front line for several weeks. The frontline situation will therefore likely continue to deteriorate in that time, particularly if Russian forces increase their attacks to take advantage of the limited window before the arrival of new US aid.

 

Russia clearly learned nothing from the US mistakes in Vietnam or Russia's humiliation in Afghanistan. Russia is projected to suffer 500,000 casualties before the end of 2024.


Russia Says Deeper U.S. Hybrid War Using Ukraine Will End in Vietnam-Style Humiliation
U.S. News & World Report
|5 hours ago
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia said on Sunday that U.S. lawmakers' approval of $60.84 billion more in support for Ukraine showed that Washington was wading deeper into a hybrid war with Russia that would end in a humiliation on a par with Vietnam or Afghanistan.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...ukraine-will-end-in-vietnam-style-humiliation

 

The RuZzkis are currently at 470 000 KIAs allegedly...by summers end ...it could be 600K+....by years end, 800K+....or use ones imagination.

 

Assuming Ukraine receives enough logistical support the final casualty number will probably fluctuate depending on how many targets Putin decides to push into the kill zone.


Russia is on course to lose 500,000 troops by end of 2024, after turning its forces into a 'low quality, high quantity mass army,' says UK intel
Alia Shoaib
Updated 9 January 2024·
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/russia-course-lose-500-000-143526941.html

 

Yep, that is a funny comparison for them to make when it is their army that is in Ukraine and not ours.

 

UK troops could face Putin’s forces this year | Hamish de Bretton Gordon


The also discuss the naZis' use of chemical warfare in Ukraine. Apparently they are using it "on an industrial scale" to clear trenches. The mighty orc army has to rely on chemical warfare because it can't win conventionally.

 

The cavalry is coming.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21, 2024
Apr 21, 2024 - ISW Press



US Senate Intelligence Committee Chairperson Senator Mark Warner reported on April 21 that US provisions of military aid to Ukraine, including long-range ATACMS missiles, will be in transit to Ukraine “by the end of the week” if the Senate passes the supplemental appropriations bill on April 23 and US President Joe Biden signs it by April 24. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on April 21 that the swift delivery of US military aid to Ukraine could allow Ukrainian forces to stabilize the frontline and seize the initiative.

 

That's 19+32+24 = 75 fighter jets + whatever "the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium—pledged to provide". Altogether a lot more air power for Ukraine -- when actually delivered.


“Denmark's government plans to donate 19 F-16 fighter aircraft to Ukraine, the Danish Defense Ministry told Newsweek in January.
Denmark's F-16s will add to a growing fleet of fighter jets already promised to Ukraine by its key allies, with Kyiv hoping to deploy them to the frontlines as early as this year.
“January 2024, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's foreign minister, confirmed that preparations for the delivery of the batch of jets promised by Denmark were going according to plan. The sentiment was echoed by Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen in February.

Last year several countries alongside Denmark—including the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium—pledged to provide the jets to Ukraine, although the exact timelines for their arrival are subject to change.And on April 9, another ally, Greece, said it could transfer up to 32 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, according to Greek media, suggesting that Kyiv could also receive 24 French-made Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets.”

NEWSWEEK, NATO Ally Confirms F-16 to Ukraine as 'Entire Fleet' Decommissioned, Published Apr 22, 2024 at 4:03 AM EDT. (emphasis mine)


NATO Ally Confirms F-16 to Ukraine as 'Entire Fleet' Decommissioned
Newsweek on MSN.com
|2 hours ago
Denmark's ambassador to Ukraine announces a big boost to Kyiv, days after U.S. Congress passed the $61 billion aid bill.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ne-as-entire-fleet-decommissioned/ar-AA1nqoud
https://www.newsweek.com/denmark-f-16-ukraine-fleet-decommissioned-1892643

 

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on April 21 that the swift delivery of US military aid to Ukraine could allow Ukrainian forces to stabilize the frontline and seize the initiative."

That's an exciting prospect! I'll be happy as long as it does stabilize the situation and stop the Z advances for now and ecstatic if the Ukrainians do seize the initiative so soon. I imagine it would be even better with F-16s in operation. They need a good counter to the Z glide bombs and F-16s could provide that.

 

The strategic impact of large numbers of F16s into the war has been recognized from the start. Air power matters.

“Ignat [spokesman for the Ukrainian air force command] reiterated his belief that the jets could be the decisive factor. “We won't win immediately, of course," he added. "But the F-16 is capable of changing the course of events, capable of providing us with what we need most today — air superiority in the occupied territories."

Ignat revealed that eight to nine Russian fighter jets currently operate in the occupied regions, deploying aerial bombs and missiles, Kyiv-based Livy Bereg reported. With the F-16s in Ukraine's arsenal, such actions would be significantly hampered, diminishing the Russian capacity to exert air dominance. Ignat reinforced the notion that control over the skies directly translates to success on the ground, thereby making the F-16's strategic value indisputable.

Military experts argue that it may not be as simple as that, but for military pilot instructor and Ukrainian reserve colonel, Roman Svitan, the Western fighters could help cut Ukrainian casualties and even shift the balance in Ukraine's favor …”

“For starters, Ukraine can reach the Azov coast in the southeast under the protection of surface-to-air missile systems and sufficient artillery cover, Svitan explains.

“The ground is as flat as a table," he notes, "so it's easy to pull equipment like artillery there."
WORLDCRUNCH, FOCUS: RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR F16, Why F-16s Could Be Decisive For Ukraine, Mc2 Justin Mctaggart/U.S Navy, WORLDCRUNCH, ENGLISH EDITION, Cameron Manley and Michal Kubala, August 21, 2023. (emphasis mine)
https://worldcrunch.com/focus/f16-counteroffensive

 

The main thing will be Ukraine's ability to overcome Russia's anti-aircraft and other capabilities that may threaten those planes. The F-16s need to be able to operate within range of their targets and kept safe from drone or missile strikes when they're on the ground. What looks good in that respect is that they are set to get upgraded radar systems on those F-16s and that they have been able to strike Russian anti-air systems pretty effectively using drones and ATACMS.

 

The Russians are trying to get their licks in before the situation shifts against them.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22, 2024
Apr 22, 2024 - ISW Press



The Kremlin is conducting a concerted air and information operation to destroy Kharkiv City, convince Ukrainians to flee, and internally displace millions of Ukrainians ahead of a possible future Russian offensive operation against the city or elsewhere in Ukraine. Kharkiv Oblast Head Oleh Synehubov and the Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported that Russian forces struck a TV tower in Kharkiv City possibly with a Kh-59 cruise missile on the afternoon of April 22 and that the strike disrupted TV signals in the area. Ukrainian and Russian media and Russian milbloggers widely amplified footage and images of the damaged TV tower, which broke in half and partially collapsed as a result of the strike. Russian state media and milbloggers attempted to justify the strike by claiming that Ukrainian forces installed unspecified air defense communication and coordination equipment on the tower.

 

All this partisan dithering is bleeding Ukraine's military. Politicians that believe US national security is enhanced by failure to follow through on our obligations under The Trilateral Statement and Budapest Memorandum are very short sighted. When the enemy is at the gates of an ally pledges need to be fulfilled -- statim.

• The UK pledges $620 million in new military aid for Ukraine
• The Associated Press on MSN.com
• |1 hour ago
• The U.K. has pledged an additional $620 million in new military supplies for Ukraine, including long-range missiles and four millions rounds of ammunition
  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...n-in-new-military-aid-for-ukraine/ar-AA1nvuCd

 

Russians are making hay while the sun shines.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 23, 2024
Apr 23, 2024 - ISW Press



Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu highlighted ongoing Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and announced Russia’s intent to intensify its strike campaign to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. Shoigu addressed the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) collegium on April 23 and focused on the recently claimed Russian seizure of Bohdanivka (northeast of Chasiv Yar), Pervomaiske (southwest of Avdiivka), and Novomykhailivka (southwest of Donetsk City).

 

EU should buy ammo outside of the bloc to quickly ...
Defense News
https://www.defensenews.com › opinion › 2024/04/24
57 minutes ago — To address Ukraine's urgent needs, the Czech Republic has initiated a plan to purchase artillery shells from non-European Union sources, demonstrating proactive ...
https://www.defensenews.com/opinion...side-of-the-bloc-to-quickly-resupply-ukraine/

 

Effects on the battlefield should be apparent soon.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 24, 2024
Apr 24, 2024 - ISW Press



US President Joe Biden announced on April 24 that the US will begin sending military equipment to Ukraine “a few hours” after signing a bill that will provide roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine. The United States reportedly provided an unspecified number of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in March 2024, some of which Ukraine has already used to strike Russian targets in deep rear areas. The arrival of long-range ATACMS missiles in sufficient quantities will allow Ukrainian forces to degrade Russian logistics and threaten Russian airfields in deep rear areas, although months of delay may have provided the Russian military time to offset the potential operational impacts that ATACMS will afford Ukraine. Ukrainian strikes against Russian logistics or Russian aviation assets in deep rear areas will likely be operationally significant, however, only if Ukrainian forces successfully coordinate them with ground operations to exploit the degraded Russian capabilities resulting from the strikes.

 

Swarm of drones blitz Russian tanks & targets after US secretly ships long range missiles to Ukraine

Swarm of drones blitz Russian tanks & targets after US secretly ships long range missiles to Ukraine.

The United States in recent weeks secretly shipped long-range missiles to Ukraine for use in its battle to fight off Russian invaders, and Ukraine has now used them twice, a U.S. official said on Wednesday April 24.

The missiles were contained in a $300 million military aid package for Ukraine that U.S. President Joe Biden approved on March 12, said the U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity. The official would not say how many of the missiles were sent.

Read more:
Inside the Putin-pounding war chest UK needs to defeat Russia as Rishi Sunak unveils unprecedented £75bn defence boost
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/27504486/war-chest-uk-defend-russia-sunak/​

 

Devastating Nato missile will make war difficult for Russia | William Hague

“It’s very important pieces of military kit. Like Storm Shadow missiles, some boats and maritime artillery. This sort of stuff really counts.”

Rishi Sunak promises Ukraine another £500 million of funding which will “not make it easy for Russia”, says former UK foreign secretary William Hague on #TimesRadio.​

 

Minor Russian advances continue -- for now.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 25, 2024
Apr 25, 2024 - ISW Press



Russian forces are stabilizing their small salient northwest of Avdiivka and may make further tactical gains that could cause Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other tactical positions along the frontline west of Avdiivka to a more defensible line. Geolocated footage published on April 25 indicates that Russian forces advanced into central Solovyove (northwest of Avdiivka) from Novobakhmutivka after likely seizing all of Novobakhmutivka on the night of April 24 to 25. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces seized all of Solovyove on April 25 and advanced up to two kilometers in depth in eastern Novokalynove (northwest of Avdiivka) on the night of April 24 to 25.

 

Contradicts other reports that Spain and Greece will not send Patriots to Ukraine.

https://www.usnews.com › news › world › articles › 2024-04-26 › spain-to-send-patriot-missiles-to-ukraine-el-pais-reports
Spain to Send Patriot Missiles to Ukraine, El Pais Reports
TodayMADRID (Reuters) - Spain will send a small number of Patriot missiles to Ukraine, El Pais newspaper reported on Friday, quoting unidentified sources.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...d-patriot-missiles-to-ukraine-el-pais-reports

 

Only stupid people would advocate this. It's like starting with a surrender.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 26, 2024
Apr 26, 2024 - ISW Press



Western media continues to report that select US officials have resumed discussing the idea of “freezing the lines” where they are because the latest package of US military assistance to Ukraine may not be enough for Ukraine to regain all its territory.

 

I hope it's a bluff, though it's hard to imagine how it would be beneficial if it is.

 

If this goes bad....Europe will burn.