Running Newsticker for the War in Ukraine

It's now a race against time to get materiel to Ukraine in time to stop the Russians.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 19, 2024

Click here to read the full report with maps

Key Takeaways:

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov signaled Russia’s intent to seize Kharkiv City in a future significant Russian offensive operation, the first senior Kremlin official to outright identify the city as a possible Russian operational objective following recent Ukrainian warnings that Russian forces may attempt to seize the city starting in Summer 2024.
• Ukrainian officials announced that Ukrainian forces downed a Russian aircraft as it conducted missile strikes against Ukraine for the first time overnight on April 18 to 19, demonstrating a capability that may constrain how Russia conducts its strike campaign against Ukraine.
• Ukrainian air defense capabilities remain limited and degraded, however, allowing Russian aircraft to operate freely without threat on certain critical areas of the front.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that Ukraine requires Western provisions of artillery ammunition, air defense materiel, long-range artillery and missile systems, and fighter aircraft as Ukrainian constraints continue due to delays in US military assistance.
• Pro-Russian Moldovan actors continue to set conditions to justify possible future Russian aggression in Moldova as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov compared Moldova to Ukraine and Armenia.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to expand the newly reformed Leningrad Military District (LMD) in preparation for an anticipated future large-scale conventional conflict with NATO.
• Russian officials continue to forcibly deport and Russify Ukrainian children as Ukrainian authorities work to return deported children to Ukrainian-controlled territory. . . . .

 

Europe's efforts to support Ukraine and resist Russian aggression have increased as US support has been cut, but Europe may not be able to provide enough military aid or ramp up war production fast enough to counter the next Russian offensive.
Nevertheless, IMO, they will desperately cling together in NATO if the US withdraws support, but this larger and more united European NATO will be much weaker w/o the US.
Further Russian aggression and world war will be the inevitable result. Right now is the time to stop Russia in its tracks,

 

Johnson is doing the right thing. He will catch hell for it. Alas.

 

Time is on Ukraine's side if the US stands firm.
Ukraine Needs One More Year To Win

Eric Schmidt, The Hill

 

Republican opposition to military aid to Ukraine is based on disinformation -- Russian war propaganda.

“Take the case of a false narrative about Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky using U.S. aid money to buy himself two yachts. This rumor—which is demonstrably false, given that the ownership of ships can be easily tracked—has been swirling in right-wing social media circles for months and popping up in American politicians’ talking points. It’s such an effective fabrication that North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis told CNN in December that the debate over aid to Ukraine had been halted on the Hill in part because some lawmakers were concerned that “people will buy yachts with this money.”
SLATE, POLITICS,With Republicans Like These, Who Needs Russian Propaganda?, Some far-right members of Congress seem to be parroting Vladimir Putin’s talking points. That doesn’t mean anti-Ukraine conspiracy theories can’t be homegrown., BY MOLLY OLMSTEAD, APRIL 20, 20245:50 AM.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics...blicans-marjorie-greene-putin-propaganda.html

 

A turning point has come.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2024

Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• The US House of Representatives passed a supplemental appropriations bill on April 20 providing for roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine. The bill must now be passed by the Senate and signed by the president before aid can begin to flow.
• These requirements and the logistics of transporting US materiel to the frontline in Ukraine will likely mean that new US assistance will not begin to affect the situation on the front line for several weeks. The frontline situation will therefore likely continue to deteriorate in that time, particularly if Russian forces increase their attacks to take advantage of the limited window before the arrival of new US aid.
• Ukrainian forces may suffer additional setbacks in the coming weeks while waiting for US security assistance that will allow Ukraine to stabilize the front, but they will likely be able to blunt the current Russian offensive assuming the resumed US assistance arrives promptly.
• Russian forces will likely intensify ongoing offensive operations and missile and drone strikes in the coming weeks in order to exploit the closing window of Ukrainian materiel constraints.
• Ukraine will likely be in a significantly improved operational position by June 2024 regardless of delays in the arrival of US security assistance to the frontline, and the Russian military command will likely consider significant changes to the large-scale offensive operation that it is expected to launch in June, although it may still proceed as planned.
• The likely resumption of US security assistance to Ukraine is a critical turning point in the war in Ukraine, but the Kremlin, the West, and Ukraine still have additional decisions to make that will determine the character and outcome of the fighting.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against several energy infrastructure facilities and a fuel storage facility within Russia on the night of April 19 to 20.
• The Kremlin appears to be censoring demands for an investigation into the reported murder of a former Donetsk People Republic (DNR) serviceman amid a wider trend of the Kremlin coopting or otherwise censoring DNR-affiliated voices within the Russian information space.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) and northwest of Avdiivka, and Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances south of Kreminna.
• Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Russian forces are using US-made 203mm artillery ammunition that Russia may have received from Iran. . . . .

 

Putin is killing Russia as fast as he can.


Russian Losses in Ukraine on Course To Far Outstrip 2023 Total
Newsweek on MSN.com
|8 hours ago
For the first three months of 2024, Russian daily losses on average hit 913 each day, the U.K. government said. Russian casualties did drop in March as fighting around Avdiivka tailed off, London said, as well as in the run-up to the Russian presidential election.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...course-to-far-outstrip-2023-total/ar-AA1nnCdT

 

Help from NATO /EU countries will help if it gets to Ukraine in time. Let us acknowledge that South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Argentina, and Japan, etc have offered various help some of them non military, some military, some just token help but any help is better that what the RepubPutiniistas in our House of Representatives did.

 

Unfortunately Russian loses are not high enough.

 

Yes sir and not repeat the near fatal stupidity that Chamberlin nearly accomplished and had potentially destroyed democracies around the world.
I was not sad when that POS was thrown onto the pile of idiots to rot. Figuratively speaking of course.

 

So, the House has at last voted to send Ukraine the help it so desperately needs.

Only a minority of Repubs voted in favor! Shame on the others and on Trump who has forbidden Johnson to take up that matter for 6 months. Trump is responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Ukrainians. Ukraine will not forget that.

Let's hope now that the Ukrainians will receive that help immediately ( asap isn't good enough in this case!) and that they will no longer be obliged to fight with one arm tied in their back, which has been the case until now, since they are advised to refrain from hitting targets in Russia itself.

This is ridiculous since Ukrainian targets, including very often non-military ones, are hit from military bases inside Russia.

 

The race to get materiel to Ukrainian forces is now the main thing.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21, 2024

Click here to read the full report with maps
Key Takeaways:

• US Senate Intelligence Committee Chairperson Senator Mark Warner reported on April 21 that US provisions of military aid to Ukraine, including long-range ATACMS missiles, will be in transit to Ukraine “by the end of the week” if the Senate passes the supplemental appropriations bill on April 23 and US President Joe Biden signs it by April 24.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on April 21 that the swift delivery of US military aid to Ukraine could allow Ukrainian forces to stabilize the frontline and seize the initiative.
• Ukrainian forces struck and damaged the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s (BSF) Kommuna submarine support ship – the world’s oldest active-duty naval vessel – in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea on April 21.
• US-sanctioned, pro-Kremlin Moldovan politician Ilan Shor created the new pro-Russian Moldovan Victory electoral bloc on April 21, which plans to run a candidate in the October 20 Moldovan presidential election.
• The Victory electoral bloc will likely allow the Kremlin to focus on a unified political effort in Moldova instead of maintaining relations with multiple pro-Russian Moldovan actors and parties, as it has done recently.
• The Russian and Chinese navies signed a memorandum of understanding and cooperation on April 21 amid recent reports of China’s increased support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• The Kremlin blocked domestic access to the website of the French non-governmental organization Reporters Without Borders (RSF), depriving Russians of access to independent assessments of Russian freedom of speech and press.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna and Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
• Russian forces have increased their use of small, lightweight, off-road vehicles along the frontline. . . .

 

I agree. IMO, the "New Plan" should be either the total defeat of the Russian military in and near Ukraine, or regime change in Russia and a full Russian withdrawal.

FORBES,US Aid for Ukraine Is Just a Start. Now for a New Plan., A settlement must be the goal, but only once Kyiv has established deterrence., April 22, 2024 at 8:49 AM EDT., By Marc Champion, Marc Champion is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Europe, Russia and the Middle East. He was previously Istanbul bureau chief for the Wall Street Journal.



US Aid for Ukraine Is Just a Start. Now for a New Plan.

Bloomberg L.P.
|36 minutes ago
The US seems on the cusp of releasing a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine that's been blocked in Congress since October, promising vital relief for Kyiv's beleaguered defenders. So, what's the plan?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...t-a-start-now-for-a-new-plan-for-russia-s-war

 

Churchill's reaction as Chamberlain's steps toward the appeasement of Nazi Germany began in 1938:

“And do not suppose that this is the end. This is only the beginning of the reckoning. This is only the first sip, the first foretaste of a bitter cup which will be proffered to us year by year unless by a supreme recovery of moral health and martial vigour, we arise again and take our stand for freedom as in the olden time.” Winston Churchill

 

Speed can defeat the Russians' plans.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• The Kremlin is conducting a concerted air and information operation to destroy Kharkiv City, convince Ukrainians to flee, and internally displace millions of Ukrainians ahead of a possible future Russian offensive operation against the city or elsewhere in Ukraine.
• Kremlin mouthpieces are seizing on concerns about a future Russian offensive operation against Kharkiv City to conduct a likely coordinated information operation in an effort to create outsized panic among Ukrainians. ISW assesses that the likelihood of a successful Russian ground offensive against Kharkiv is very low if Ukraine receives renewed US military aid rapidly.
• Russia is intensifying strike and information operations against Ukrainians in Kharkiv City to exploit ongoing constraints on Ukrainian air defenses and heightened tensions in Ukraine in the likely relatively brief window before the anticipated arrival of US military assistance to frontline areas.
• Russian forces appear to be aiming to make a wide penetration of Ukrainian lines northwest of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, but their ability to do so will likely be blunted by the arrival of US and other Western aid to the frontline.
• The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on April 22 that Finland is taking concrete steps to protect itself against Russian hybrid operations weaponizing Russian-manufactured migrant crises on the Russian-Finnish border.
• The Kremlin appears to be highlighting its relationship with Azerbaijan while downplaying deteriorating Russian-Armenia relations following Russia’s failure to prevent Armenia’s loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
• The Russian state “Sudoplatov” volunteer drone initiative is reportedly equipping Russian military personnel operating in the Bakhmut direction with cheap and defective first-person view (FPV) drones. . . . .

Ukraine’s European partners continue to provide aid to Ukraine. Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren stated on April 19 that the Netherlands will contribute 150 million euros (about $159 million) to the German-led initiative to supply Ukraine with air defense systems and will purchase 60 million euros (about $64 million) worth of short-range air defense equipment for Ukraine to combat drone strikes.[62] German Minister of Economic Affairs and Vice Chancellor Robert Habek and Head of Diehl Defense Helmut Rauch announced on April 18 that Germany will deliver an additional IRIS-T air defense system to Ukraine in a few weeks.[63] Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds stated on April 22 that Latvia is prepared to give Ukraine a short-range air defense system.[64] Denmark announced on April 16 that it will allocate 2.2 billion Danish kroner (about $314 million) worth of military assistance to Ukraine, including funds to strengthen Ukraine’s naval capabilities, purchase ammunition and drones, and produce missile components.[65] Denmark announced that it would allocate 200 million Danish kroner (about $28 million) of this package to buy materiel for the Ukrainian military from Ukrainian manufacturers, becoming the first country to commit to this system of Western aid procurement for Ukraine.[66] A crowdfunding campaign in Slovakia to support the Czech initiative that began on April 16 has raised $3.4 million as of April 22.[67] The Office of the President of Ukraine stated on April 18 that Ukraine and the Czech Republic have begun negotiations on a bilateral security agreement.[68] German State Secretary of Economic Affairs and Climate Action Sven Giegold stated on April 19 that Germany approved 5.2 billion euros (about $5.5 billion) worth of military equipment exports in the first quarter of 2024, of which about 3.8 billion euros (about $4 billion) went to Ukraine.[69] Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Kateryna Pavlichenko stated on April 18 that Ukrainian authorities have not found a single case of smuggling arms outside of Ukraine.[70]

The Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB) is continuing to increase domestic production and is successfully deploying new Ukrainian-produced weapons to the frontlines. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on April 18 that Ukraine had increased the production of Ukrainian Bohdana self-propelled howitzers, producing 10 Bohdana howitzers in April 2024.[71] Members of the US Congress’ National Defense Strategy Commission Jane Harman, Mara Rudman, and Roger Zakheim recently assessed that Ukraine will “increase tenfold” the number of Neptune missiles it is manufacturing in 2024 and that the Neptune will have an increased range of up to 1,000 kilometers.[72] Ukrainian Digital Transformation Minister Mykahilo Fedorov announced on April 17 that Ukraine transferred 2,000 Ukrainian-produced short-range electronic warfare (EW) systems to the frontlines.[73]

Habek and Ukrainian Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin attended the opening of the new Quantum-Systems GmbH drone production facility in Ukraine on April 18.[74] Quantum-Systems reported that this is the company’s second site in Ukraine and that it will invest up to six million euros (about $6.3 million) in its Ukrainian enterprises over the next two years.

Ukrainian defense officials are continuing efforts to combat corruption in the Ukrainian DIB. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov outlined on April 16 that the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) will prioritize defense planning, procurement for Ukrainian forces, defense production, and development of defensive technology over the next six months.[75] Umerov reported that Ukrainian defense officials completed a functional audit of the Ukrainian MoD and General Staff and noted that the Ukrainian MoD has completely changed its procurement system over the past 200 days. Umerov clarified that the new system is a two-level procurement system that complies with NATO principles, which has allowed Ukraine to change the legal framework that previously created favorable conditions for corruption. Umerov reported that the new procurement system allowed Ukraine to catch violations worth 2.16 billion hryvnyas (about $54.3 million). . . . .

 

Cyrano: 'And to complete the refrain -- on the way.'

• https://www.theguardian.com › world › 2024 › apr › 23 › ukraine-war-briefing-long-range-atacms-missiles-on-the-way-says-zelenskiy
  Ukraine war briefing: Long-range Atacms missiles on the way, says ...
  1 day ago Ukraine's military said it was still in control of the village of Novomykhailivka, 40km (25 miles) south-west of the Ukrainian city of Donetsk, which Russian forces earlier claimed to have captured. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nge-atacms-missiles-on-the-way-says-zelenskiy

 

I did not believe that Johnson would have a come to Jesus moment. Glad that I was wrong.

 

......okay.....so 3rd in line of succession to the Presidency of the US is a Russian UI......112 democratically elected politicians in America under the influence of a Russian UI......kindda worrying

 

The British are coming!

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 23, 2024

Click here to read the full report.
Key Takeaways:

• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu highlighted ongoing Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and announced Russia’s intent to intensify its strike campaign to disrupt Ukrainian logistics.
• Shoigu also discussed ongoing Russian military reforms during his April 23 MoD collegium address, cloaking ongoing expansion efforts in an information operation meant to falsely frame all Russian military activity as inherently defensive and responsive to supposed NATO aggression.
• Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian traveled to St. Petersburg on April 23 to attend the 12th Russian International Security Summit.
• The Chechen Republic appears to be trying to align itself more closely with Iran over the backdrop of intensifying bilateral security cooperation between Russia and Iran.
• United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the UK’s largest ever package of military assistance to Ukraine valued at 500 million pounds (around $662 million) on April 23.
• Moldovan authorities confiscated over one million dollars from Kremlin-linked Moldovan opposition politicians at the Chisinau airport on the night of April 22 to 23, and the opposition politicians likely intended to use to bribe protestors and voters.
• Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor is blocking 150 virtual private network (VPN) services in Russia, another step in the Kremlin’s efforts to further censor and control the Russian information space.
• Ukrainian drone strikes and recent flooding in Russia have reportedly brought weekly Russian oil refining to an 11-month low, although the decrease in refining output has so far been marginal.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) and Russian forces recently advanced near Donetsk City.
• Prominent Russian milbloggers continue to complain about the ineffectiveness of Russian drones on the battlefield. . . .

Prominent Russian milbloggers continue to complain about the ineffectiveness of Russian drones on the battlefield. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian drones are preventing Russian forces from conducting effective assaults near Krynky in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast and are complicating Russian offensive operations in the Zaporizhia Oblast direction.[75] The milblogger complained that Russian forces in the Chasiv Yar direction in Donetsk Oblast have far fewer drones than Ukrainian forces and that most Russian drones fail to reach their intended targets. The milblogger complained that Russian commanders are ordering their subordinates to not report problems with drones to higher command and that the Russian military is not providing soldiers with the necessary resources to resolve these issues. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger agreed with the first milblogger, claiming that these problems are not new.[76] The Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that the main supplier of Russian first-person view (FPV) drones has a monopoly on production so Russian forces only have one main model of FPV drone. The milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces have long known the frequencies on which this model of drone operates and are jamming them. Another Russian milblogger who previously fought in occupied Ukraine made similar complaints on April 22 about Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) threatening Russian FPV drones that operate on the same frequency.[77] The Russian government designated the State Transport Leasing Company as the sole supplier of drones under government contracts for 2024 through 2025 on April 16.[78]

A Ukrainian military observer reported that leaked documents and emails indicate that Russian agricultural companies RusAgro and AssistAgro, which are connected to Russian oligarch Vadim Moshkovich, are assisting in the manufacturing processes for drones for the Russian military under the cover of their registration as agricultural enterprises.[79]. . . .

 

Another big hit.


WORLD, Massive fire seen as Ukraine hits Russian oil depots with a drone strike, By Anhelina Shamlii, Updated on: April 24, 2024 / 10:04 AM EDT / CBS News
Massive fire seen as Ukraine hits Russian oil depots with a ...
CBS News
https://www.cbsnews.com › World
11 minutes ago — Ukraine claims to have destroyed almost 1 million cubic feet of fuel in a drone strike on Russian state-owned oil depots.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-ukrainian-drone-strike-russian-oil-depot-smolensk/

 

....to be delivered....sometime soon.....maybe.....hopefully......but hey who cares when it sounds great in front of the camera....nothing like grandstanding for the press....the lad's a bit of a 5th wheel to be frank....but he'll be gone soon

 

You do not have to be Cherokee or a Finn to know the things governments promise to give are often lost in delivery.

“Every Indian outbreak that I have ever known has resulted from broken promises and broken treaties by the government.” William Frederick Cody

 

The Ukrainians will have expanded capabilities.

Ukraine Conflict Updates
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 24, 2024

Click here to read the full report.

Key Takeaways:

• US President Joe Biden announced on April 24 that the US will begin sending military equipment to Ukraine “a few hours” after signing a bill that will provide roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine.
• The United States reportedly provided an unspecified number of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in March 2024, some of which Ukraine has already used to strike Russian targets in deep rear areas.
• The arrival of long-range ATACMS missiles in sufficient quantities will allow Ukrainian forces to degrade Russian logistics and threaten Russian airfields in deep rear areas, although months of delay may have provided the Russian military time to offset the potential operational impacts that ATACMS will afford Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against Russian energy and industrial facilities in Smolensk and Lipetsk oblasts on the night of April 23 to 24.
• Russian authorities arrested Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on April 24 on charges of accepting bribes, although other Russian sources reported that Ivanov is suspected of treason.
• Ivanov’s arrest prompted Russian information space speculation about a new round of personnel changes in the Russian military and claims that the arrest is part of Kremlin factional conflicts.
• Russian ultranationalist milbloggers largely celebrated Ivanov’s arrest and used it as an opportunity to publicly criticize the Russian MoD.
• The Kremlin explicitly threatened Armenia if Armenia does not resume active engagement in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and resume its pro-Kremlin alignment.
• Kremlin-appointed Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova deliberately misrepresented recent Qatari-mediated negotiations between Russia and Ukraine as the first face-to-face negotiations on the return of Ukrainian children forcibly removed and deported by Russia, likely in an effort to minimize Russia’s responsibility for the coordinated removal and deportation of Ukrainian children.
• Moldovan authorities filed a criminal case against Yevgenia Gutsul, the Kremlin-affiliated governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, for campaign finance violations as Moldovan officials continue to warn about Russia’s threat to Moldova.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and Robotyne.
• Russian State Duma Committee on Information Policy Head Alexander Khinshtein stated on April 24 that unspecified Russian officials will soon submit a draft law to the State Duma that would ban the extradition of foreigners who have fought in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine if the foreigners face prosecution for their military service in their home countries. . . .