Russia is expected to grow faster than all advanced economies this year

I've already answered your nonsense a long time ago. Then you got your ego bruised. Now you're back with a different question that's off topic. Ask the ****ing IMF for all I care. Or just get a plane ticket and educate yourself. Comprende?

 

You didn't ask a question in post 57. You made unfounded allegations. You've since resorted to ad homs and flame baiting.

As opposed to your 'knowledge' of the Russian economy, I actually have investments there. From what I see, the IMF's projections are low.

 

Apologies for the delay. Now where were we? Oh yes. Here!

'Err.. its actually the same question I've been asking since the start. In fact it was the question I asked in my first post (57) on this topic and it's the same question you've (blatantly) avoided answering ever since. So at this point I'm going to assume your answer is that you have no f'ing idea. (Surprise, surprise. ) Which is strange given you've been singing your own praises as a financial wiz kid on this thread.'

Firstly I have to say you were correct about one thing. (Which frankly is remarkable in itself BTW.) But that aside upon review I did not in fact ask a question in post 57. Instead I raised a a number of points about the economic impacts of Russia spending its sovereign wealth funds to purchase munitions and weapon systems which, instead of being sold to foreign customers were being expended or depreciated on the battlefield in Ukraine. Since the vast majority of this funding goes directly to Rostec and it's numerous subsidiaries and Rostec is a state owned conglomerate the net effect is that Russian Government is buying weapons from itself.

And while it's true that a % of this expenditure does flow out into the economy as a whole (principally salaries and wages paid to employees in the defense industry and as payments to any non-government owned companies supplying inputs) the fact remains the majority of it doesn't.

The thing is however that after making those 'points' in post 57 I did repeatedly ask you to address them in later posts. And each time I did? You weaseled out of doing so. So finally here's your chance since apparently you think I never asked you directly. You wanted it expressed as a direct question? Well here it is. Questions!

1) Is it economically sustainable for Russia to spend its sovereign wealth funds on purchasing inputs (munitions) and capital items (weapon systems) that are then expended or at best severely depreciated on the battlefield?
2) How does this process benefit the economy as a whole in the long term?
3) In your opinion how long can Russia continue to do this without suffering adverse economic impacts beyond the already current high (compared to the western world) rate of inflation?

As of ad hominens? Your the one who boasted about how financially astute you were to begin with, not me. So it's good to see that yes, your now back on track again i.e being wrong as usual.

 

Off topic, pathetic and boring. Go derail somewhere else.

 

So despite whining about how I didn't apparently ask you a question now your apparently too spinless to even try and answer some. Interesting but not surprising, since you have a looong history of avoiding any questions that can't be answered by quoting one of the Kremlin's latest press releases. (Not that your paid to do that BTW.)

And since the topic of this thread is actually "Russia is expected to grow faster than all advanced economies this year" I'm struggling to understand how the questions I asked could be 'off topic' since they directly relate to Russia's current fiscal settings. Hows that work Billy?

 

No whining here bud. You came into this thread (just like you do in all Russia-related threads that present data and news that runs contrary to your personal beliefs) to post your spin and opinions. I really don't care what you think. Reality is what matters. The IMF has revised their numbers up 4 or 5 times since last year....reluctantly an admission sanctions failed. Yet here you are....Bad Vlad and Russia gonna collapse any day now....'cause you think so.

I own bank stock and e-commerce stock in Russia. Their results a pretty good indicator of the economy. The e-commerce company's sales year over year are up over 100%. The bank made all time record profits. Only a fool would think their economy is in dire straits. Furthermore, their government operates more efficiently than the US government....by a long shot. Doing more with less. They're going to be just fine....as Bad Vlad once said a few years ago "the west is making the same mistakes the Soviet Union made". And we all know what happened to the Soviet Union. Russia may not have the biggest economy, but it is certainly the most solvent.....hence why sanctions didn't work.

Spare me the regurgitated John Bolton speak, okay?

 

And exactly none of that has anything to do with what I posted?

I asked a simple set of questions about a relatively simple issue. Your response? Insult, divert, raise issues and persons I never mentioned and in general avoid answering the questions I asked at all costs, And you've done so repeatedly! And all of that despite your self professed expertise on the subject of investing in Russia and the future prospects for its economy.

In short. Your full of something bulls produce in abundance (and its not semen) although again nothing you do or say would surprise me at this point.

 

Nope, you just want to propagandize some bovine excrement that's off topic. Read the OP again....IMF projections....comprende?

 

Projections for ..... the Russian Economy!
My questions about the likely future impact of a specific issue? Related to ..... the Russian economy! Comprende?

And as for going 'off topic' (which I certainly didn't). You seem to have no problem doing it yourself, do you Bill? Or have you already forgotten your little segway on this thread into American housing and poverty already? Seems like going 'off topic' is fine - just so long your the one doing it? And to top it off? You also seem to think it's an easy excuse to use any time you want wriggle out of answering pertinent questions. Well done Bill, well played. Now off you go. It's time to go looking for your spine, you seem to have misplaced it somewhere.

 

Oooooh look at you big man...I'm shakin in my boots over here I tell ya!

Your crystal ball musings have nothing to do with the here and now of what the IMF is talking about. Anyone can make up a load of equine excrement and claim it's gonna wreck Russia's economy.....just like every moronic SOB in Washington DC that claimed sanctions were the end of Russia's economy...leading to a collapse and regime change.

Shouldn't you get back to your "Russia will run out of tanks in the next couple of years" hogwash? Math hard for you?

 

Boots? Really? You seem more the high heel type to me. Anyway addressing other issues. The first of which is of course do you even bother to read posts before farting, sorry typing out your responses? I only ask because I didn't say it would 'wreck the economy' Bill. In order I stated that:

1) Yes, the Russian economy was growing (true);
2) The Government there was on a war footing (true);
3) The government was spending money from its sovereign wealth funds to purchase weapons from state owned companies (true);
4) That money spent on purchasing munitions and systems which are then expended/depreciated in war is not a productive (wealth generating) investment largely because those end products do not increase economic output in and of themselves (true); and
5) That as a result of the above the rest of the economy not involved with the defense industry is forced to compete for scare resources (labor and finance) and as a result are facing higher costs because of labor shortages and the higher cost of finance and raw materials (true)!

The above is what I wrote. I just asked you what the long term impact these factors on the Russian economy was likely to be. Your spine (like Elvis) then left the building and has been MIA ever since.

And my questions were valid BTW precisely because they relate to issues not covered by the IMF issues which may have an impact on the Russian economy in the future. An economy which I note you claim to have some knowledge of and confidence in. So why not answer those questions then? ('I don't know' is an acceptable answer BTW and would have ended this pointless exchange many posts ago).

As for not running out of tanks. That must be why T-64 is featuring so prominently in documented combat losses of late or that satellite imagery allows analysts to determine the rate at which Russia is reactivating cold war equipment and therefore lets them calculate an approximate 'end date' i.e. a point in time for any particular piece of equipment in that stockpile where will be have been used up. (Also all true.) It's just counting numbers Bill, all of it, Russian government spending and it's sources, combat losses, stockpile reduction rates all of it. And hence no more 'crystal ball gazing' as you call it than the IMFs report is. And you seem quite happy to quote those figures left right and center.

Someone might think you don't like acknowledging the existence of potential bad news for Russia Bill. Not me of course. I think your a real stand up ... a stand up ... not guy exactly. Russian patriot perhaps?

 

1) Not ‘was’ growing. The Russian economy ‘is’ growing. I don’t know why you would phrase it in such a way.

2) Yes. All countries should be on a war footing. There are numerous global conflicts, as well as weapons and ammo shortages. It would be nice if Europe would build more arms manufacturers.

3) So what? Of course they spent money to invest in their weapons industry. They have enormous stockpiles of metals that are vital to arms production, and the global demand for weapons and other manufactured products due to shortages. This spikes the price of Metals. Despite sanctions, Russian Companies have been able to greatly profit from these spikes by selling to Russian-owned businesses in other countries where they can secretly ‘launder’ their materials through third companies that sell to manufacturers of products bought in Europe and the US. For instance, Russia has exported enormous amounts of copper to Chinese and Indian companies over the last four months, in which the price has risen near all-time highs, by disguising it as recycled metal or rods in Chinese plants that meld copper sold from numerous sources. Then it’s sold to various Chinese Manufacturers that supply Manufacturers of Western Goods. They can also sell cheap Copper to Chinese manufacturers that supply electronics and technology used to make Advanced Weapons in Russia. They did the same thing when Lithium, Cobalt, and Nickel spiked. https://www.reuters.com/markets/com...er-plant-china-ceo-tells-interfax-2024-04-22/

Russian weapons are cheap. They have stockpiles that every country needs, they can buy parts in other countries for pennies on the dollar, and they can form profit-sharing agreements with third parties that sell those goods to other countries at a higher price point. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/...-russia-to-help-war-effort-in-ukraine-ap-says

Russia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund has risen over the past few months. You can look it up. There strategic partnership with China assures they can continue building advanced weapons on the cheap, as well as use strategic funds to pay for a long war with a NATO armed Ukraine. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/...-russia-to-help-war-effort-in-ukraine-ap-says

In fact, Intelligence Agencies believe Russia is selling more weapons to other countries like Iran, China Pakistan, and warring African Nations. The assertion that Russian arms sales decreased is based on a lack of data. Russia isn’t providing data on weapons and resource sales to strategic partners because they are at war. China and Iran aren’t sharing that info with you. https://www.military.africa/2024/03/sipris-russian-arms-export-data-questioned-for-accuracy/

4) You don’t know what all that money was used to purchase. Even if they did spend a lot of money on Weapons and Ammo, the investment in Arms sped-up their production to the points where Russia is replacing/repairing tanks just as fast as they lose one. They are producing millions of Artillery Shells. Every several months we find out that NATO and Ukraine have under-estimated Russia’s capacity to product weapons. Selling these weapons to another country to fund wars that benefit them geopolitically does increase economic output. Winning the industrial sections, agricultural belt, and Coastal Ports of Ukraine would increase Russia’s economic output.

5) WOW. I pretty much disproved most of the assumptions made in your last argument. Obviously, a huge portion of the economy is involved in the defense industry, because Russian mining companies, energy producers, and component manufacturers in Russia produce items that are needed around the World. You can sell energy, metals, and food to countries like India and China, where there is an abundance of laborers that can turn your cheap products into cheap weapons. A shortage of laborers in Russia also increases wages for people that can buy products made expensive by sanctions.

Regarding finance, the idea that Russia can’t find cheap financing through investment vehicles in other countries is laughable. There’s way too much profit that could be made by investors who back the victor of Ukraine.

 

Russia isn't exporting any arms right now. Even traditional buyers like India have openly said Russia has broken contracts as it can't deliver what it is contractually supposed to do so.

BTW Russia is going broke and can't even pay for basic maintenance or public services. I am going to laugh watching your country go to hell.

 

Too busy to deal with another Russian patriot and true believer right now. So I'll just address two of your points you raised, point 2 and the one about arms sales increasing.

Regarding point two? That's just silly. Russia is on the war footing because it is at war. The NATO powers and their western allies and indeed almost all other nations in the world are not fighting a war and therefore do not wish to inflict the economic and social stress on their peoples that going on a war footing entails.

Arms sales. For Russia can be calculated suing forward estimates of sales. Russia might not be releasing figures on arms sales but the purchasing countries do. The evidence?



I'll try to get to the rest later. But note most of the world is not selling Russia weapons, even China is limiting it's sales to consumables like uniforms, protective gear and some components for fear of sanctions.

 

Whoa, the DOW down 600+ today on the news of 1.6% growth.....seems those sanctions do work....against the West. Meanwhile Bad Vlad and Co chugging right along...going up...while we are going down.

Maybe start a new topic about Bidenomics?

 

Russia's figures are entirely made up and they refuse to release basic data every other country does because doing so would prove Putin's made up numbers are lies.

We just need to wait because the money is running out and then the money printing will start. Inflation and everything slowly breaking down around them in the future of Russia. Keep typing your nonsense and we will keep laughing at you.

 

IMF projects that fascist Russia will grow its military spending more than all advanced economies this year, not that its economy is actually growing in any fundamental or meaningful way. You think all that loss of men and equipment, plus all the sanctions on their exports and imports, as well as their being significantly economically isolated overall, is unleashing an economic miracle? I doubt that you actually believe that, just as I doubt you bothered to read the article that you posted in the first place.

 

Explain how you believe that sanctions on Russia's puny economy are affecting the growth of our economy.

This should be good, assuming you actually answer the question.

 

Oh I will take that one D hope Will don't mind .. The growth of our economy is dependent on a number of factors one of the biggest factors unfortunately is massive deficit spending ..
The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion about every 100 days
The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion about every 100 days (cnbc.com)

holy Carp friends .. Revenue is around 4 Trillion " In 2023, the U.S. government collected a total of $4.4 trillion in revenue, which is $457 billion (or 9%) less than the previous fiscal year."

That really sucks .. so Gov't running big time on credit card spending .. unsustainable rate of spending BTW .. can't do this for long .. I know it is an election year and all .. .. wow.

Sorry to digress .. Sanctions .. Interest Rates .. Debt .. what do these have in common .. meaning "our Debt" .what is it 33 Trillion..

Sup D .. need u me to splain you from here on in ? splain that old "Economic Nuclear Oprion" that Biden Use.. in last ditch effort .. blowing every bullet in the chamber .. usurping the Sovereignty of Every nation on earth .. now for the second time in History ... Trump being the first ... Historically remembered as his biggest blunder on the geopolitical chessboard .. which was kind of the straw that broke the camels back.. Biden now riding into a shitstorm pressing that button again .. literally forcing the nations of the World to get an alternative to the US dollar as the Sole currency of international exchange ..which they are working on .. in an age of crypto currency and distributed ledger .. ya got to figure they will come up with something in the near future ... meaning less than 5 years.. which is a shocking thing to say but, its a shocking world.

U understand D .. need further splaining ! Sure I told you this before .. but if not .. listen up ..

The Day you lift head from pillow ... look out on world .. and notice there is a valid alternative to the US Dollar for international Trade .. is the day the history books will record as the defacto end of the US economic empire ..

..yes .. Entitled "Money really does grow on Trees"

When you are the Sole Reserve currency .. everything in the world is priced in your dollars .. which you can print .. and print .. and print

ahhh .. but when you lose that status .. or to be honest .. even as you are getting close to losing that status .. as the markets will react before the event .. talking the Bond markets .. and of course the stocks will follow but . lets us just say that Demand for US T-Bills will decrease .. and so you have to offer higher interest rates .. driving up the cost of our massive debt .. and bankrupting us in very short order .. kind of like what is happening now with the interest rate increase .. perhaps that is the markets reacting already ..

Did you not hear ..the biggest economic news .. the annual interest on our debt has hit 1 Trillion. That is up from 500 Billion in roughly 5 years .. after trending 4-500 Billion for since 2000. .. so a rapid spike up .. in our interest costs .. humungo ginormous rate of increase.. which we can't sustain past say 1.5 Trillion .. Lets do the math .. Alarm bells go off at the IMF if a nations interest to income ratio hits 30% .. That's where they literally step in and take over .. forcing changes .. in some cases .. ship is taking on water faster than can be bailed out.

Short story long -- It is not the Russian Economy that is affecting the US economy .. but US sanctions on Russia that are effecting the US economy.. in some rather significant ways .. including but not limited to the above.

 

Russian Central Bank Downgrades Economic Forecast | Finally Truth From The Officials!

 

Oh gee....but here the consortium indicates RuZzia is "booming".....life couldn't be better...record profits, sanctions are a joke, yaddah,yaddah?

 

Thanks for the fake news D, I guess you think no one knows the CBR website address? Maybe ought to quit getting duped by propaganda sites??

Here's some of the transcript from 4 days ago:

"Secondly, the economy.

After a slight deceleration at the end of last year, the economy again expands steadily. The growth of consumption over January—February significantly exceeded our forecast. The labour market tightness has been intensifying which reflects rising demand for labour. This trend is observed in almost all regions. For more details, see the April issue of our Regional Economy report.

Considering the current situation in the economy, in our baseline scenario, we have revised upwards our estimate of GDP growth for this year to 2.5–3.5%, while maintaining the forecast for 2025 unchanged at 1.0–2.0%. This scenario implies that, starting from 2024 Q2, the economy will be shifting towards more balanced growth rates. The demand and supply gap will be contracting gradually, supporting the deceleration of price dynamics. In this case, the accumulated effect of the key rate increase will be sufficient to bring inflation back to the levels close to the target already by the end of this year. If the situation evolves this way, it will be possible to start cutting the key rate in the second half of the year. The choice of a particular moment will depend on how quickly current price growth rates will be declining. If disinflation is too slow, we might need to keep the key rate at the current level until the end of 2024."

^^^^^^^ here's your truth from the official, Elvira Nabiullina

https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/event/?id=18648

Maybe you would like to watch her press release on youtube??

 

Nothing fake about Inside RuZzia and Konstantin "Bill"....he also a businessman...that left RuZzia...and lives in Tashkent.

Nabiullina is basically a Putinka toadie that falls in line whatever her boss tells her.

 

If you had bothered to watch any of the video I posted, you would know that Konstantin addressed what she said, specifically the rosy forecast. You can skip to 5:45 or so to get right to that part.

He goes on to describe it as sugar-coating and states that she was ordered to deliver that kind of messaging, and that the reason for it was the then upcoming presidential election. Had to make things look good.

He then addresses the public press conference to which you've linked here. That starts at about 6:55 in the video I posted. I quote:

And some key quotes from your link:

Nothing fake in what Konstantin has to say, "Bill." He accurately quotes Nabiullina and correctly interprets what she says and describes the economic reality. The interest rate is already extremely high at 16%, driven by a number of factors, and may even need to be increased rather than decreased just to try and keep inflation under control, and inflation is at over 4%. GDP is up, but that doesn't mean the Russian economy is healthy and people in Russia are living the good life.

 

Hey D you got busted. There is no downgrade. Period. Yet you peddle some clown's clickbait. The dude lives in ****ing Uzbekistan. He doesn't even live in Russia.

If there was some type of downgrade, I'd know. My stocks would take a hit. They're green D, big time. So crimea river, mmmkay?

Next time if you want to cite the Central Bank of Russia's forecasts, you can refer to the link I provided. Leave the assclown Uzbek youtubers alone.

And to correct what you said, Russia's federal funds rate is 16% as set by the CBR. If the US set the fed funds rate at 12-14-16% (which it should but can't), the economy would crash. As in worse than 2008 crash. That ought to clue you in on the strength of Russia's economy and balance sheet.

What happened when Paul Volcker jacked the rates up to 20% in 1980 (like Russia did in 2022)? Years of recession ensued. Yet Russia is growing.